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MD

Maryland 7 at Wisconsin 52

WIS
2014 · Week 9 · Oct 25, 2014 · Camp Randall Stadium
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Win probability · WIS
modelWIS aheadMD aheadconfidence bandkey playWIS scoreMD score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 10:58 · C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Stefon Diggs
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 12Home team on offense−0.2Score differential−0.3Pregame prior+21.9Blowout margin+0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 9:11: Melvin Gordon run for 6 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK) — WIS win probability +1.8 pts (now 75%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  2. FG · Q1 3:46: Rafael Gaglianone 36 yd FG GOOD — WIS win probability +0.1 pts (now 76%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 14:57: Melvin Gordon run for 1 yd for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK) — WIS win probability +6.7 pts (now 83%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 6:40: Melvin Gordon run for 3 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK) — WIS win probability +5.9 pts (now 93%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 8:45: Joel Stave pass complete to Alex Erickson for 47 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK) — WIS win probability +3.6 pts (now 100%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WIS made the numbers' call on 5 of 8MD made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 10:58MD 4th & 12 at WIS 35, tied
    Close callWent for it · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.2%−<0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    25.2%
    45% to make
    Punt
    25.2%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:43MD 4th & 20 at MD 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.2%−0.4
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:09WIS 4th & 9 at MD 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.2%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    76.2%−<0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    76.0%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:46WIS 4th & 9 at MD 18, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.1%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.4%
    79% to make
    Punt
    74.6%−1.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:19MD 4th & 27 at MD 34, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.4%−2.8
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:49WIS 4th & 1 at MD 15, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    84.6%−1.7
    83% to make
    Punt
    79.8%−6.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:06MD 4th & 3 at MD 42, down 24
    Close callPunted · 8.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.5%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:43WIS 4th & 15 at WIS 13, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.6%−1.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:19MD 4th & 10 at MD 35, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.7%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.1%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:37WIS 4th & 17 at MD 38, up 24
    Close callPunted · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.7%−0.5
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    94.2%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    93.7%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:53WIS 4th & 3 at MD 43, up 24
    Close callPunted · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    94.6%−0.9
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    95.0%−0.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:54MD 4th & 5 at MD 22, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.7%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:47MD 4th & 13 at MD 22, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:22WIS 4th & 4 at WIS 46, up 31
    Close callPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:23MD 4th & 10 at MD 15, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  16. Q3 2:26MD 4th & 2 at MD 49, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.3%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q3 1:24WIS 4th & 8 at MD 47, up 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  18. Q3 0:00MD 4th & 4 at MD 24, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  19. Q4 11:17MD 4th & 1 at MD 34, down 45
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WIS made the numbers' call on 7 of 7MD made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 9:11WIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:57WIS Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:40WIS Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:45WIS Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:31WIS Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:42WIS Touchdown, up 44 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:53WIS Touchdown, up 51 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 0:57MD Touchdown, down 46 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MDDrive 1DOWNS
12 plays · 40 yds · 3:5727% → 27%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
73.5%
Brandon Ross run for 8 yds to the Mary 33Similar
Q1 14:38
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
73.4%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Deon LongSimilar
Q1 14:33
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
73.4%
C.J. Brown run for 4 yds to the Mary 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
73.3%
Kenneth Goins Jr. run for no gain to the Mary 37Similar
Q1 13:29
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+3
73.1%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Deon Long for 3 yds to the Mary 40Similar
Q1 12:48
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+27
73.0%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Derrick Hayward for 27 yds to the Wisc 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
72.6%
C.J. Brown run for 2 yds to the Wisc 31Similar
Q1 11:50
2ND & 8
OPP 31
0
72.5%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Stefon DiggsSimilar
Q1 11:32
3RD & 8
OPP 31
-4
72.5%
C.J. Brown sacked by Marcus Trotter for a loss of 4 yards to the Wisc 35Similar
Q1 10:58
4TH & 12
OPP 35
0
72.8%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Stefon DiggsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 2TD
4 plays · 65 yds · 1:3673% → 75%
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
72.9%
Melvin Gordon run for 9 yds to the Wisc 44Similar
Q1 10:17
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+7
73.2%
Melvin Gordon run for 7 yds to the Mary 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+43
73.1%
Joel Stave pass complete to Alex Erickson for 43 yds to the Mary 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
74.9%
Melvin Gordon run for 6 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 1:2326% → 25%
Q1 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
74.1%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Deon LongSimilar
Q1 8:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-3
74.1%
Stefon Diggs run for a loss of 3 yards to the Mary 22Similar
Q1 8:19
3RD & 13
OWN 22
-7
74.5%
C.J. Brown sacked by Joe Schobert for a loss of 7 yards to the Mary 15 C.J. Brown fumbled, recovered by Mary Ryan Doyle , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 7:43
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
74.6%
Nathan Renfro punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Kenzel Doe at the Wisc 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 4FG
10 plays · 35 yds · 3:4875% → 76%
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+16
75.0%
Joel Stave pass complete to Alex Erickson for 16 yds to the Mary 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
75.1%
Kenzel Doe run for no gain to the Mary 37Similar
Q1 6:26
2ND & 10
OPP 37
-5
75.2%
WISCONSIN Penalty, False Start (Melvin Gordon) to the Mary 42Similar
Q1 5:58
2ND & 15
OPP 42
+6
75.0%
Melvin Gordon run for 6 yds to the Mary 36Similar
Q1 5:17
3RD & 9
OPP 36
0
75.2%
Joel Stave pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:09
4TH & 9
OPP 36
+17
74.8%
Drew Meyer pass complete to Troy Fumagalli for 17 yds to the Mary 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
75.8%
Melvin Gordon run for 1 yd to the Mary 18Similar
Q1 3:57
2ND & 9
OPP 18
0
75.9%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Alex EricksonSimilar
Q1 3:51
3RD & 9
OPP 18
0
75.6%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Troy FumagalliSimilar
Q1 3:46
4TH & 9
OPP 18
+36
75.7%
Rafael Gaglianone 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 5FUMBLE
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:4824% → 23%
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
75.8%
MARYLAND Penalty, False Start (Silvano Altamirano) to the Mary 20Similar
Q1 3:35
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+8
76.4%
C.J. Brown run for 8 yds to the Mary 28Similar
Q1 3:07
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
76.3%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Stefon DiggsSimilar
Q1 2:58
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+8
76.6%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Deon Long for 8 yds to the Mary 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 6TD
7 plays · 29 yds · 2:2977% → 83%
Q1 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
76.6%
Corey Clement run for 1 yd to the Mary 28Similar
Q1 1:43
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+6
76.8%
Corey Clement run for 6 yds to the Mary 22Similar
Q1 1:13
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+11
76.5%
Corey Clement run for 11 yds to the Mary 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+10
77.0%
Corey Clement run for 10 yds to the Mary 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
76.4%
Corey Clement run for no gain to the Mary 1Similar
Q2 14:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
83.1%
Melvin Gordon run for 1 yd for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 5 yds · 2:2518% → 17%
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+22
81.6%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Deon Long for 22 yds to the Wisc 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-5
81.2%
MARYLAND Penalty, Illegal Formation (NA) to the Mary 46Similar
Q2 14:03
1ST & 15
OWN 46
-5
82.1%
MARYLAND Penalty, False Start (Michael Dunn) to the Mary 41Similar
Q2 13:43
1ST & 20
OWN 41
-3
82.3%
Brandon Ross run for a loss of 3 yards to the Mary 38Similar
Q2 13:06
2ND & 23
OWN 38
-4
82.7%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Brandon Ross for a loss of 4 yards to the Mary 34Similar
Q2 12:32
3RD & 27
OWN 34
0
83.1%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Jacquille VeiiSimilar
Q2 12:19
4TH & 27
OWN 34
+15
83.3%
Nathan Renfro punt for 46 yds , Kenzel Doe returns for 15 yds to the Wisc 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 8TD
11 plays · 65 yds · 5:3185% → 93%
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
84.7%
Kenzel Doe run for 12 yds to the Wisc 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+12
85.5%
Tanner McEvoy pass complete to Melvin Gordon for 12 yds to the Mary 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
85.8%
Melvin Gordon run for no gain to the Mary 41Similar
Q2 10:32
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
86.0%
Tanner McEvoy pass incomplete to Kenzel DoeSimilar
Q2 10:24
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+17
85.7%
Tanner McEvoy run for 17 yds to the Mary 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
86.4%
Tanner McEvoy pass complete to Melvin Gordon for no gain to the Mary 24Similar
Q2 9:03
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+1
86.8%
Melvin Gordon run for 1 yd to the Mary 23Similar
Q2 8:28
3RD & 9
OPP 23
+8
86.7%
Tanner McEvoy pass complete to Alex Erickson for 8 yds to the Mary 15Similar
Q2 7:49
4TH & 1
OPP 15
+5
85.7%
Tanner McEvoy run for 5 yds to the Mary 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
86.9%
Melvin Gordon run for 7 yds to the Mary 3Similar
Q2 6:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
92.7%
Melvin Gordon run for 3 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 1:2910% → 9%
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
90.4%
MARYLAND Penalty, False Start (Derrick Hayward) to the Mary 20Similar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+15
90.5%
WISCONSIN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Sojourn Shelton) to the Mary 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
90.0%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Stefon DiggsSimilar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+6
90.3%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Wes Brown for 6 yds to the Mary 41Similar
Q2 5:38
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+1
90.4%
C.J. Brown run for 1 yd to the Mary 42Similar
Q2 5:06
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
90.6%
Nathan Renfro punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Kenzel Doe at the Wisc 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 2:1093% → 94%
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
93.1%
Melvin Gordon run for 3 yds to the Wisc 21Similar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+2
93.2%
Melvin Gordon run for 2 yds to the Wisc 23Similar
Q2 3:23
3RD & 5
OWN 23
-10
93.7%
Joel Stave sacked by Andre Monroe for a loss of 10 yards to the Wisc 13Similar
Q2 2:43
4TH & 15
OWN 13
0
93.5%
Bart Houston punt for 52 yds, downed at the Mary 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:198% → 8%
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
91.7%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Brandon RossSimilar
Q2 2:32
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
91.9%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Stefon DiggsSimilar
Q2 2:26
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
92.3%
C.J. Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:19
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
92.3%
Nathan Renfro punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Kenzel Doe at the Wisc 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 12PUNT
11 plays · 42 yds · 1:3494% → 94%
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
94.1%
Joel Stave pass complete to Kenzel Doe for 5 yds to the Wisc 25Similar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+1
94.4%
Joel Stave pass complete to Jordan Fredrick for 1 yd to the Wisc 26Similar
Q2 1:23
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+15
94.5%
Joel Stave pass complete to Sam Arneson for 15 yds to the Wisc 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
95.0%
MARYLAND Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jarrett Ross) to the Mary 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+13
95.1%
Joel Stave pass complete to Reggie Love for 13 yds to the Mary 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-1
95.2%
Melvin Gordon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 32Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 11
OPP 32
-6
95.0%
Joel Stave sacked by Jesse Aniebonam for a loss of 6 yards to the Mary 38Similar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 17
OPP 38
0
94.7%
Joel Stave pass incomplete to Troy FumagalliSimilar
Q2 0:37
4TH & 17
OPP 38
0
94.2%
Drew Meyer punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 13END OF HALF
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:278% → 7%
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
92.4%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Juwann Winfree for 2 yds to the Mary 22Similar
Q2 0:11
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
93.0%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Deon LongSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+4
93.1%
Brandon Ross run for 4 yds to the Mary 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 32 yds · 3:5894% → 95%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
94.2%
Melvin Gordon run for 7 yds to the Wisc 32Similar
Q3 14:12
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
94.5%
Melvin Gordon run for 4 yds to the Wisc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
94.6%
Melvin Gordon run for 7 yds to the Wisc 43Similar
Q3 13:28
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+7
94.8%
Joel Stave pass complete to Alex Erickson for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:48
1ST & 10
50
+2
95.1%
Melvin Gordon run for 2 yds to the Mary 48Similar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+4
95.4%
Melvin Gordon run for 4 yds to the Mary 44Similar
Q3 11:24
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+1
95.5%
Corey Clement run for 1 yd to the Mary 43Similar
Q3 10:53
4TH & 3
OPP 43
0
95.2%
Drew Meyer punt for 26 yds, fair catch by William Likely at the Mary 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:535% → 4%
Q3 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
95.3%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Deon Long for 9 yds to the Mary 26Similar
Q3 10:16
2ND & 1
OWN 26
0
95.3%
C.J. Brown run for no gain to the Mary 26Similar
Q3 9:37
3RD & 1
OWN 26
-4
95.5%
Brandon Ross run for a loss of 4 yards to the Mary 22Similar
Q3 8:54
4TH & 5
OWN 22
+14
95.9%
Nathan Renfro punt for 39 yds , Kenzel Doe returns for 14 yds to the Mary 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 16TD
1 play · 47 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
99.5%
Joel Stave pass complete to Alex Erickson for 47 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 0:501% → 1%
Q3 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
99.2%
MARYLAND Penalty, False Start (Brandon Ross) to the Mary 20Similar
Q3 8:34
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
99.3%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Stefon DiggsSimilar
Q3 8:27
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+2
99.3%
Brandon Ross run for 2 yds to the Mary 22Similar
Q3 7:54
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
99.3%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Stefon DiggsSimilar
Q3 7:47
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
99.3%
Nathan Renfro punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Kenzel Doe at the Wisc 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:18100% → 100%
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
99.5%
Tanner McEvoy run for 2 yds to the Wisc 42Similar
Q3 6:54
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+4
99.6%
Melvin Gordon run for 4 yds to the Wisc 46Similar
Q3 6:33
3RD & 4
OWN 46
0
99.6%
Tanner McEvoy pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:22
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
99.6%
Drew Meyer punt for 39 yds , William Likely returns for no gain to the Mary 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 19FUMBLE
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:531% → 1%
Q3 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
99.2%
C.J. Brown run for no gain to the Mary 15Similar
Q3 5:39
2ND & 10
OWN 15
0
99.2%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Stefon DiggsSimilar
Q3 5:34
3RD & 10
OWN 15
0
99.3%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Derrick HaywardSimilar
Q3 5:23
4TH & 10
OWN 15
+4
99.3%
Nathan Renfro punt for 46 yds , Kenzel Doe returns for 4 yds to the Wisc 43 Kenzel Doe fumbled, recovered by Wisc Derrick TindalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 20TD
4 plays · 57 yds · 1:43100% → 100%
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
99.6%
Melvin Gordon run for 6 yds to the Wisc 49Similar
Q3 4:35
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+21
99.7%
Melvin Gordon run for 21 yds to the Mary 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+22
99.7%
Melvin Gordon run for 22 yds to the Mary 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
99.7%
Joel Stave pass complete to Sam Arneson for 8 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 21DOWNS
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:450% → 0%
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
99.7%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Deon Long for 6 yds to the Mary 47Similar
Q3 2:49
2ND & 4
OWN 47
0
99.7%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Brandon RossSimilar
Q3 2:46
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+2
99.7%
C.J. Brown run for 2 yds to the Mary 49Similar
Q3 2:26
4TH & 2
OWN 49
0
99.7%
C.J. Brown run for no gain to the Mary 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:54100% → 100%
Q3 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
99.7%
Joel Stave pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:12
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+2
99.7%
Corey Clement run for 2 yds to the Mary 47Similar
Q3 1:31
3RD & 8
OPP 47
0
99.7%
Joel Stave pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:24
4TH & 8
OPP 47
0
99.7%
Drew Meyer punt for 29 yds, fair catch by William Likely at the Mary 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:110% → 0%
Q3 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
99.8%
Stefon Diggs run for 7 yds to the Mary 25Similar
Q3 0:47
2ND & 3
OWN 25
+1
99.8%
Brandon Ross run for 1 yd to the Mary 26Similar
Q3 0:02
3RD & 2
OWN 26
-2
99.8%
Brandon Ross run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mary 24Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 4
OWN 24
0
99.9%
Nathan Renfro punt for 43 yds, downed at the Wisc 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 24TD
3 plays · 67 yds · 1:13100% → 100%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
99.8%
Kenzel Doe run for 3 yds to the Wisc 36Similar
Q4 14:12
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+4
99.8%
Corey Clement run for 4 yds to the Wisc 40Similar
Q4 13:42
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+60
99.9%
Tanner McEvoy run for 60 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 2:170% → 0%
Q4 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.9%
Wes Brown run for 6 yds to the Mary 31Similar
Q4 12:51
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
99.9%
Wes Brown run for 2 yds to the Mary 33Similar
Q4 12:21
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-5
99.9%
MARYLAND Penalty, False Start (Derrick Hayward) to the Mary 28Similar
Q4 11:48
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+6
99.9%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Wes Brown for 6 yds to the Mary 34Similar
Q4 11:17
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
99.9%
Nathan Renfro punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Kenzel Doe at the Wisc 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 26TD
11 plays · 79 yds · 6:16100% → 100%
Q4 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
99.9%
Corey Clement run for 2 yds to the Wisc 23Similar
Q4 10:29
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+5
99.9%
Corey Clement run for 5 yds to the Wisc 28Similar
Q4 9:52
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+6
99.9%
Corey Clement run for 6 yds to the Wisc 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
99.9%
Corey Clement run for 5 yds to the Wisc 39Similar
Q4 8:41
2ND & 5
OWN 39
0
99.9%
Corey Clement run for no gain to the Wisc 39Similar
Q4 7:54
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+11
99.9%
Tanner McEvoy pass complete to Austin Traylor for 11 yds Austin Traylor fumbled, forced by Jeremiah Johnson, recovered by Wisc Rob Havenstein , return to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
50
+13
99.9%
Tanner McEvoy pass complete to George Rushing for 13 yds to the Mary 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
99.9%
Corey Clement run for 8 yds to the Mary 29Similar
Q4 5:58
2ND & 2
OPP 29
+11
99.9%
Corey Clement run for 11 yds to the Mary 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+15
100.0%
Corey Clement run for 15 yds to the Mary 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
100.0%
Corey Clement run for 3 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 27TD
9 plays · 73 yds · 3:410% → 0%
Q4 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
100.0%
Wes Brown run for 2 yds to the Mary 29Similar
Q4 4:06
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+11
100.0%
C.J. Brown run for 11 yds to the Mary 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
100.0%
Wes Brown run for 5 yds to the Mary 45Similar
Q4 2:52
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+11
100.0%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Deon Long for 11 yds to the Wisc 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
100.0%
Wes Brown run for 7 yds to the Wisc 37Similar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+4
100.0%
C.J. Brown run for 4 yds to the Wisc 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+12
100.0%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Juwann Winfree for 12 yds to the Wisc 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
100.0%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Stefon Diggs for 21 yds for a TD, (Brad Craddock KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 28END OF GAME
2 plays · 16 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+16
100.0%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 16 yds to the Wisc 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 14:57
Melvin Gordon run for 1 yd for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)
+6.7
TD · Q2 6:40
Melvin Gordon run for 3 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)
+5.9
TD · Q3 8:45
Joel Stave pass complete to Alex Erickson for 47 yds for a TD, (Rafael Gaglianone KICK)
+3.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com