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MD

Maryland 20 at Penn State 19

PSU
2014 · Week 10 · Nov 1, 2014 · Beaver Stadium
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Win probability · PSU
modelPSU aheadMD aheadconfidence bandkey playPSU scoreMD score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGFGTDFGTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 1:35 · Nathan Renfro punt for 49 yds, downed at the PnSt 27
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 144Pregame prior+1.9Home team on offense+12.3Score differential+4.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.1Garbage-time factor+0.7Blowout margin+1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 3:18: Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Jesse James for 8 yds for a TD, (Sam Ficken KICK) — PSU win probability +14.0 pts (now 81%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q4 13:11: Brad Craddock 25 yd FG GOOD — MD win probability +10.5 pts (now 32%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:30: Wes Brown run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brad Craddock KICK) — MD win probability +24.1 pts (now 59%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 6:52: Sam Ficken 48 yd FG GOOD — PSU win probability +11.5 pts (now 66%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:51: Brad Craddock 43 yd FG GOOD — MD win probability +39.9 pts (now 77%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PSU made the numbers' call on 13 of 14MD made the numbers' call on 10 of 13
  1. Q1 10:56PSU 4th & 9 at MD 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.4%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.5%
    56% to make
    Punt
    58.4%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:43MD 4th & 10 at PSU 37, down 3
    Close callPunted · 40.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.8%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    40.8%−<0.1
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    40.8%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:19PSU 4th & 1 at PSU 29, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    58.6%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:46MD 4th & 16 at MD 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.7%−1.1
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:15PSU 4th & 17 at PSU 19, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.7%−1.0
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:43PSU 4th & 10 at PSU 34, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.7%−1.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:21MD 4th & 2 at MD 18, up 4
    Close callPunted · 44.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.6%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:06PSU 4th & 7 at MD 8, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.5%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.8%
    90% to make
    Punt
    46.5%−6.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:04MD 4th & 28 at MD 9, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.5%−4.1
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.6%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:30PSU 4th & 10 at MD 29, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.3%−1.0
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.3%
    58% to make
    Punt
    49.6%−4.6
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:44MD 4th & 10 at MD 44, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.9%−1.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:27MD 4th & 1 at MD 23, down 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.9%−1.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:06PSU 4th & 13 at PSU 27, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.1%−3.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.2%
    average punt
  14. Q3 11:07MD 4th & 8 at MD 38, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.7%−1.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.8%
    average punt
  15. Q3 9:33PSU 4th & 4 at PSU 26, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.2%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.3%
    average punt
  16. Q3 8:39MD 4th & 10 at MD 39, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.2%−1.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.9%
    average punt
  17. Q3 7:20PSU 4th & 4 at PSU 23, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.7%−0.7
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.4%
    average punt
  18. Q3 1:35MD 4th & 24 at MD 24, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.3%−5.5
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.7%
    average punt
  19. Q3 0:57PSU 4th & 14 at PSU 23, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.1%−3.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.1%
    average punt
  20. Q4 13:11MD 4th & 7 at PSU 7, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.6%−0.8
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.3%
    91% to make
    Punt
    4.4%−12.9
    average punt
  21. Q4 10:35PSU 4th & 8 at PSU 27, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.6%−2.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.1%
    average punt
  22. Q4 9:39MD 4th & 12 at MD 34, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.8%−7.0
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.8%
    average punt
  23. Q4 6:52PSU 4th & 9 at MD 31, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.0%−4.0
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.0%
    54% to make
    Punt
    43.6%−7.4
    average punt
  24. Q4 3:22MD 4th & 23 at MD 34, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.8%−5.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.0%
    average punt
  25. Q4 2:16PSU 4th & 3 at PSU 20, up 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.5 ptsPunted · 71.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.5%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.0%−2.5
    average punt
  26. Q4 0:51MD 4th & 6 at PSU 25, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.7%−19.6
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.3%
    66% to make
    Punt
    10.3%−32.0
    average punt
  27. Q4 0:23PSU 4th & 1 at PSU 28, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    15.5%−13.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1MD made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 13:52MD Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 3:18PSU Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 11:30MD Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.8%−1.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PSUDrive 1FG
11 plays · 36 yds · 3:5457% → 58%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
57.0%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Jesse James for 9 yds to the PnSt 43Similar
Q1 14:40
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+4
57.1%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 4 yds to the PnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
57.1%
Akeel Lynch run for 8 yds to the Mary 45Similar
Q1 13:47
2ND & 2
OPP 45
-5
57.2%
PENN ST Penalty, Illegal Procedure (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:40
2ND & 7
50
+2
57.2%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Jesse James for 2 yds to the Mary 48Similar
Q1 12:50
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+17
57.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Geno Lewis for 17 yds to the Mary 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
57.5%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Geno Lewis for 1 yd to the Mary 30Similar
Q1 11:44
2ND & 9
OPP 30
0
57.7%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q1 11:10
3RD & 9
OPP 30
0
57.6%
Christian Hackenberg run for no gain to the Mary 30Similar
Q1 10:56
4TH & 9
OPP 30
+47
57.7%
Sam Ficken 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 2PUNT
10 plays · 36 yds · 2:0942% → 42%
Q1 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
57.6%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Brandon RossSimilar
Q1 10:49
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
57.7%
C.J. Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:42
3RD & 10
OWN 27
+5
57.9%
PENN ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Mary 32Similar
Q1 10:42
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+16
57.7%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Deon Long for 1 yd to the Mary 33 for a 1ST down PENN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Mary 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
57.3%
PENN ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the PnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
57.3%
Brandon Ross run for 2 yds to the PnSt 35Similar
Q1 10:02
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+1
57.2%
C.J. Brown run for 1 yd to the PnSt 34Similar
Q1 9:26
3RD & 7
OPP 34
-3
57.6%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Brandon Ross for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 37Similar
Q1 8:43
4TH & 10
OPP 37
0
58.1%
Nathan Renfro punt for 37 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 3INT
9 plays · 37 yds · 3:3658% → 60%
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
57.9%
Akeel Lynch run for 4 yds to the PnSt 24Similar
Q1 8:05
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+3
58.1%
Akeel Lynch run for 3 yds to the PnSt 27Similar
Q1 7:39
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+2
57.8%
Akeel Lynch run for 2 yds to the PnSt 29Similar
Q1 7:19
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+1
58.0%
Christian Hackenberg run for 1 yd to the PnSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
58.6%
Akeel Lynch run for 4 yds to the PnSt 34Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+3
58.9%
Akeel Lynch run for 3 yds to the PnSt 37Similar
Q1 6:00
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+20
58.9%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Jesse James for 20 yds to the Mary 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
59.9%
Christian Hackenberg pass intercepted William Likely return for 7 yds to the Mary 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 1:1041% → 40%
Q1 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+23
59.2%
C.J. Brown run for 23 yds to the Mary 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-6
58.7%
C.J. Brown sacked by Deion Barnes for a loss of 6 yards to the Mary 32Similar
Q1 4:01
2ND & 16
OWN 32
0
59.4%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Deon LongSimilar
Q1 3:56
3RD & 16
OWN 32
0
59.8%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Amba Etta-TawoSimilar
Q1 3:46
4TH & 16
OWN 32
0
60.1%
Nathan Renfro punt for 42 yds, downed at the PnSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:3159% → 58%
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
59.2%
PENN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 21Similar
Q1 3:19
1ST & 15
OWN 21
0
59.0%
Bill Belton run for no gain to the PnSt 21Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 15
OWN 21
-2
59.0%
Christian Hackenberg sacked by Keith Bowers for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 19Similar
Q1 2:22
3RD & 17
OWN 19
0
58.5%
Christian Hackenberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:15
4TH & 17
OWN 19
0
58.2%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PnSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 6TD
9 plays · 43 yds · 2:5042% → 47%
Q1 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
57.9%
Kenneth Goins Jr. run for 3 yds to the PnSt 40Similar
Q1 1:17
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+6
57.9%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Juwann Winfree for 6 yds to the PnSt 34Similar
Q1 0:42
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+1
58.0%
Wes Brown run for 1 yd to the PnSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
58.6%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Marcus Leak for 9 yds to the PnSt 24Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 1
OPP 24
+7
58.5%
C.J. Brown run for 7 yds to the PnSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+9
58.5%
Brown, C.J. pass incomplete to Diggs, Stefon, PENALTY PENNST personal foul (Allen, Marcus) 9 yards to the PENNST8, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MARYLAND. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
58.5%
C.J. Brown run for 6 yds to the PnSt 2Similar
Q2 13:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
53.2%
C.J. Brown pass complete to P.J. Gallo for 2 yds for a TD, (Brad Craddock KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:3955% → 55%
Q2 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
55.3%
Bill Belton run for no gain to the PnSt 22Similar
Q2 13:10
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+12
55.2%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Chris Godwin for 12 yds to the PnSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
55.6%
Christian Hackenberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:57
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
55.6%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Mike GesickiSimilar
Q2 12:54
3RD & 10
OWN 34
0
54.7%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Matt ZanellatoSimilar
Q2 12:43
4TH & 10
OWN 34
0
54.5%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 44 yds , William Likely returns for no gain to the Mary 34 MARYLAND Penalty, Illegal Block (12 Yards) to the Mary 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1645% → 44%
Q2 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
55.2%
C.J. Brown run for 2 yds to the Mary 12Similar
Q2 11:52
2ND & 8
OWN 12
0
55.2%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Deon LongSimilar
Q2 11:38
3RD & 8
OWN 12
+6
55.6%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Amba Etta-Tawo for 6 yds to the Mary 18Similar
Q2 11:21
4TH & 2
OWN 18
+6
55.8%
Nathan Renfro punt for 45 yds , Jesse Della Valle returns for 6 yds to the PnSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 9FG
15 plays · 49 yds · 5:4557% → 58%
Q2 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
56.7%
Akeel Lynch run for 4 yds to the PnSt 47Similar
Q2 10:03
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+7
57.1%
Akeel Lynch run for 7 yds to the Mary 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
57.0%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Saeed BlacknallSimilar
Q2 9:14
2ND & 10
OPP 46
-9
56.9%
Christian Hackenberg sacked by Andre Monroe for a loss of 9 yards to the PnSt 45Similar
Q2 8:52
3RD & 19
OWN 45
+15
54.1%
MARYLAND Penalty, Roughing Passer (Yannick Ngakoue) to the Mary 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
57.0%
Akeel Lynch run for 5 yds to the Mary 35Similar
Q2 8:18
2ND & 5
OPP 35
-2
58.2%
Akeel Lynch run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mary 37Similar
Q2 8:00
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+15
55.9%
Hackenberg, Christian pass incomplete to Carter, Kyle, PENALTY MARYLAND pass interference (Nixon, Anthony) 15 yards to the MARYLAND22, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PENNST. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
57.3%
Bill Belton run for 7 yds to the Mary 15Similar
Q2 7:01
2ND & 3
OPP 15
+2
57.3%
Bill Belton run for 2 yds to the Mary 13Similar
Q2 6:28
3RD & 1
OPP 13
+2
55.9%
Akeel Lynch run for 2 yds to the Mary 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
57.3%
Akeel Lynch run for 3 yds to the Mary 8Similar
Q2 5:14
2ND & 7
OPP 8
0
57.3%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q2 5:10
3RD & 7
OPP 8
0
55.9%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Mike GesickiSimilar
Q2 5:06
4TH & 7
OPP 8
+25
58.0%
Sam Ficken 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · -18 yds · 1:5146% → 43%
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
54.3%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Brandon Ross for 6 yds to the Mary 33Similar
Q2 4:50
2ND & 4
OWN 33
-17
53.4%
Brandon Ross run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mary 31 MARYLAND Penalty, Illegal Block (-15 Yards) to the Mary 16Similar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 21
OWN 16
0
55.0%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Stefon DiggsSimilar
Q2 4:40
3RD & 21
OWN 16
-7
55.7%
C.J. Brown sacked by Deion Barnes for a loss of 7 yards to the Mary 9 C.J. Brown fumbled, forced by Deion Barnes, recovered by MarySimilar
Q2 3:04
4TH & 28
OWN 9
0
57.2%
Nathan Renfro punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jesse Della Valle at the Mary 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 11FG
8 plays · 16 yds · 1:2059% → 62%
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
59.3%
Bill Belton run for 8 yds to the Mary 37Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 2
OPP 37
-1
59.5%
Bill Belton run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 38Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+9
58.5%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 9 yds to the Mary 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
60.6%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Geno LewisSimilar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
60.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Kyle CarterSimilar
Q2 1:36
3RD & 10
OPP 29
0
58.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q2 1:30
4TH & 10
OPP 29
+46
62.1%
Sam Ficken 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 12FUMBLE
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
61.4%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Brandon Ross for 7 yds Brandon Ross fumbled, forced by Trevor Williams, recovered by PnSt Mike HullSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 13FUMBLE
2 plays · -12 yds · 0:0766% → 66%
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
66.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Geno LewisSimilar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 10
OPP 32
-12
66.3%
Christian Hackenberg sacked by TEAM for a loss of 12 yards to the Mary 44 Christian Hackenberg fumbled, recovered by Mary L.A. Goree , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1641% → 38%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
58.8%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Wes BrownSimilar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
59.6%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Deon LongSimilar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 10
OWN 44
0
60.6%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Juwann WinfreeSimilar
Q2 0:44
4TH & 10
OWN 44
0
62.4%
Nathan Renfro punt for 45 yds , Jesse Della Valle returns for no gain to the PnSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 15END OF HALF
3 plays · -9 yds · 0:3862% → 62%
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-8
62.1%
Christian Hackenberg sacked by Yannik Cudjoe-Virgil for a loss of 8 yards to the PnSt 3Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 18
OWN 3
-1
61.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:0039% → 38%
Q3 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
60.6%
Brandon Ross run for 1 yd to the Mary 15Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 9
OWN 15
0
60.9%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Stefon DiggsSimilar
Q3 13:58
3RD & 9
OWN 15
+8
62.1%
Brandon Ross run for 8 yds to the Mary 23Similar
Q3 13:27
4TH & 1
OWN 23
+2
62.5%
Nathan Renfro punt for 49 yds , Jesse Della Valle returns for 2 yds to the PnSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:0762% → 59%
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
62.0%
Akeel Lynch run for no gain to the PnSt 30Similar
Q3 12:46
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
61.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q3 12:40
3RD & 10
OWN 30
-3
60.0%
Akeel Lynch run for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 27Similar
Q3 12:06
4TH & 13
OWN 27
0
59.0%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 37 yds, fair catch by William Likely at the Mary 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5541% → 38%
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
59.5%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Stefon DiggsSimilar
Q3 11:47
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+2
60.1%
Jacquille Veii run for 2 yds to the Mary 38Similar
Q3 11:15
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
59.8%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Amba Etta-TawoSimilar
Q3 11:07
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
62.1%
Nathan Renfro punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jesse Della Valle at the PnSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1261% → 60%
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
61.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Geno Lewis for 5 yds to the PnSt 25Similar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+1
61.8%
Akeel Lynch run for 1 yd to the PnSt 26Similar
Q3 9:45
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
60.8%
Christian Hackenberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:33
4TH & 4
OWN 26
-2
59.5%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 47 yds , William Likely returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Mary 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 14 yds · 0:3439% → 38%
Q3 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
60.9%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Marcus Leak for 14 yds to the Mary 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
58.8%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Marcus LeakSimilar
Q3 8:58
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
59.3%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Stefon DiggsSimilar
Q3 8:50
3RD & 10
OWN 39
0
60.7%
C.J. Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:39
4TH & 10
OWN 39
0
62.5%
Nathan Renfro punt for 44 yds, downed at the PnSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1462% → 60%
Q3 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
61.8%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q3 8:18
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+2
61.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 2 yds to the PnSt 19Similar
Q3 7:41
3RD & 8
OWN 19
+4
60.3%
Christian Hackenberg run for 4 yds to the PnSt 23Similar
Q3 7:20
4TH & 4
OWN 23
-5
59.6%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 36 yds , William Likely returns for a loss of 5 yards to the Mary 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 22FUMBLE
3 plays · 15 yds · 1:0040% → 44%
Q3 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
59.7%
Wes Brown run for 15 yds to the PnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
57.0%
Wes Brown run for 8 yds to the PnSt 41Similar
Q3 6:13
2ND & 2
OPP 41
-8
56.5%
Wes Brown run for a loss of 8 yards to the PnSt 49 Wes Brown fumbled, forced by Anthony Zettel, recovered by PnSt C.J. OlaniyanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 23TD
9 plays · 51 yds · 2:5566% → 81%
Q3 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-5
65.5%
PENN ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 44Similar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 15
OWN 44
+2
63.5%
Bill Belton run for 2 yds to the PnSt 46Similar
Q3 5:19
2ND & 13
OWN 46
+14
63.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 14 yds to the Mary 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
66.1%
Akeel Lynch run for no gain to the Mary 40Similar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+13
65.9%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 13 yds to the Mary 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+12
67.2%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Kyle Carter for 12 yds to the Mary 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+9
67.2%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Kyle Carter for 9 yds to the Mary 6Similar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 1
OPP 6
-2
67.3%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Geno Lewis for a loss of 2 yards to the Mary 8Similar
Q3 3:18
3RD & 3
OPP 8
+8
81.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Jesse James for 8 yds for a TD, (Sam Ficken KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:2820% → 17%
Q3 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
80.0%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Stefon Diggs for 13 yds to the Mary 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
79.0%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Amba Etta-TawoSimilar
Q3 2:28
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-8
79.3%
C.J. Brown sacked by Garrett Sickels for a loss of 8 yards to the Mary 30Similar
Q3 1:45
3RD & 18
OWN 30
-6
82.1%
C.J. Brown sacked by Tyrone Smith for a loss of 6 yards to the Mary 24Similar
Q3 1:35
4TH & 24
OWN 24
0
82.7%
Nathan Renfro punt for 49 yds, downed at the PnSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:1982% → 80%
Q3 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-4
81.9%
Bill Belton run for a loss of 4 yards to the PnSt 23Similar
Q3 1:09
2ND & 14
OWN 23
0
81.4%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q3 1:05
3RD & 14
OWN 23
0
80.5%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q3 0:57
4TH & 14
OWN 23
0
79.8%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 32 yds, downed at the Mary 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 26FUMBLE
7 plays · 48 yds · 2:2821% → 32%
Q3 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+22
79.5%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Deon Long for 22 yds to the PnSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+12
77.1%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Stefon Diggs for 12 yds to the PnSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+12
76.8%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Stefon Diggs for 12 yds to the PnSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
76.8%
C.J. Brown run for 5 yds to the PnSt 4Similar
Q4 14:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
77.1%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Stefon Diggs for 3 yds to the PnSt 1Similar
Q4 14:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-6
78.6%
Wes Brown run for a loss of 6 yards to the PnSt 7 Wes Brown fumbled, recovered by Mary Wes BrownSimilar
Q4 13:11
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
68.1%
Brad Craddock 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 27TD
5 plays · 24 yds · 1:3037% → 59%
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-10
62.7%
C.J. Brown sacked by Austin Johnson for a loss of 10 yards to the PnSt 34Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 20
OPP 34
+25
68.2%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Amba Etta-Tawo for 25 yds to the PnSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
64.9%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Stefon Diggs for 8 yds to the PnSt 1Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
40.8%
Wes Brown run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brad Craddock KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:3649% → 45%
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
49.4%
Akeel Lynch run for 2 yds to the PnSt 27Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
49.6%
Christian Hackenberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:45
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
46.8%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q4 10:35
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
45.2%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 37 yds , William Likely returns for no gain to the Mary 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 29PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:4656% → 51%
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
44.4%
Wes Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mary 34Similar
Q4 9:56
2ND & 12
OWN 34
0
46.3%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Marcus LeakSimilar
Q4 9:49
3RD & 12
OWN 34
0
47.8%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Amba Etta-TawoSimilar
Q4 9:39
4TH & 12
OWN 34
+30
49.4%
Nathan Renfro punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jesse Della Valle at the PENNST 21 for a 1ST down MARYLAND Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the PnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 30FG
9 plays · 33 yds · 2:4751% → 66%
Q4 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
51.4%
PENN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 31Similar
Q4 9:29
1ST & 15
OWN 31
+17
49.5%
Christian Hackenberg run for 17 yds to the PnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-4
54.8%
Christian Hackenberg run for a loss of 4 yards to the PnSt 44 Christian Hackenberg fumbled, recovered by PnSt Christian HackenbergSimilar
Q4 8:11
2ND & 14
OWN 44
-9
50.3%
Christian Hackenberg sacked by Yannick Ngakoue for a loss of 9 yards to the PnSt 35Similar
Q4 7:52
3RD & 23
OWN 35
+33
46.6%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Geno Lewis for 33 yds to the Mary 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
57.8%
Christian Hackenberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:28
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+1
57.7%
Akeel Lynch run for 1 yd to the Mary 31Similar
Q4 6:57
3RD & 9
OPP 31
0
54.3%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to Saeed BlacknallSimilar
Q4 6:52
4TH & 9
OPP 31
+48
65.8%
Sam Ficken 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 31PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 3:1839% → 30%
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
61.5%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Stefon Diggs for 5 yds to the Mary 36Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+11
59.8%
Wes Brown run for 11 yds to the Mary 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-10
58.4%
Brandon Ross run for a loss of 10 yards to the Mary 37Similar
Q4 4:42
2ND & 20
OWN 37
+8
64.8%
C.J. Brown run for 8 yds to the Mary 45Similar
Q4 3:30
3RD & 12
OWN 45
-11
66.9%
C.J. Brown sacked by Marcus Allen for a loss of 11 yards to the Mary 34Similar
Q4 3:22
4TH & 23
OWN 34
0
70.3%
Nathan Renfro punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Jesse Della Valle at the PnSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 32PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:4474% → 75%
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
74.0%
Akeel Lynch run for 4 yds to the PnSt 17Similar
Q4 2:33
2ND & 6
OWN 17
0
73.9%
Akeel Lynch run for no gain to the PnSt 17Similar
Q4 2:27
3RD & 6
OWN 17
+3
74.5%
Akeel Lynch run for 3 yds to the PnSt 20Similar
Q4 2:16
4TH & 3
OWN 20
+15
74.6%
Daniel Pasquariello punt for 37 yds , William Likely returns for 15 yds to the PnSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 33FG
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:0938% → 77%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+13
61.8%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Wes Brown for 13 yds to the PnSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
59.4%
Wes Brown run for 2 yds to the PnSt 27Similar
Q4 1:01
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+2
62.3%
Wes Brown run for 2 yds to the PnSt 25Similar
Q4 0:56
3RD & 6
OPP 25
0
63.1%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Amba Etta-TawoSimilar
Q4 0:51
4TH & 6
OPP 25
+43
23.2%
Brad Craddock 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 34FUMBLE
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:1841% → 36%
Q4 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
40.7%
Christian Hackenberg pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q4 0:38
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+9
39.5%
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Jesse James for 9 yds to the PnSt 28Similar
Q4 0:26
3RD & 1
OWN 28
0
37.5%
Christian Hackenberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:23
4TH & 1
OWN 28
0
35.9%
Christian Hackenberg run for no gain to the PnSt 28 Christian Hackenberg fumbled, recovered by Mary L.A. GoreeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 35END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-1
5.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:51
Brad Craddock 43 yd FG GOOD
-39.9
TD · Q4 11:30
Wes Brown run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brad Craddock KICK)
-24.1
TD · Q3 3:18
Christian Hackenberg pass complete to Jesse James for 8 yds for a TD, (Sam Ficken KICK)
+14
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com