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RUTG

Rutgers 41 at Maryland 38

MD
2014 · Week 14 · Nov 29, 2014 · SECU Stadium
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Win probability · MD
modelMD aheadRUTG aheadconfidence bandkey playMD scoreRUTG score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:59 · Nathan Renfro punt for 42 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 148Pregame prior+4.8Home team on offense+1.4Garbage-time factor−1.3Score differential−1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:29: Brandon Ross run for 40 yds for a TD, (Brad Craddock KICK) — MD win probability +8.1 pts (now 87%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:09: Gary Nova pass complete to Andre Patton for 1 yd for a TD, (Kyle Federico KICK) — MD win probability +7.5 pts (now 82%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:36: Gary Nova pass complete to Leonte Carroo for 8 yds for a TD, (Kyle Federico KICK) — RUTG win probability +13.9 pts (now 33%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q4 14:55: Gary Nova pass complete to Andre Patton for 10 yds for a TD, (Kyle Federico KICK) — RUTG win probability +20.0 pts (now 46%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 6:14: Kyle Federico 25 yd FG GOOD — RUTG win probability +15.1 pts (now 67%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MD made the numbers' call on 6 of 6RUTG made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 7:26RUTG 4th & 7 at RUTG 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.4%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:15MD 4th & 5 at MD 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.1%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:48RUTG 4th & 3 at MD 9, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 26.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.8%−0.3
    89% to make
    Punt
    23.2%−3.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:00RUTG 4th & 10 at RUTG 23, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.0%−1.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.7%
    average punt
  5. Q3 10:12MD 4th & 13 at MD 45, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.6%−1.7
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.3%
    average punt
  6. Q3 3:59MD 4th & 10 at RUTG 31, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.6%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.5%
    54% to make
    Punt
    70.7%−1.8
    average punt
  7. Q4 10:59MD 4th & 20 at RUTG 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.1%−5.7
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    57.3%−2.5
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    59.7%
    average punt
  8. Q4 6:14RUTG 4th & 8 at MD 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.3%−2.4
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.7%
    90% to make
    Punt
    21.2%−24.5
    average punt
  9. Q4 3:45MD 4th & 9 at RUTG 36, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.9%−3.0
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.9%
    42% to make
    Punt
    29.5%−7.4
    average punt
  10. Q4 1:00MD 4th & 1 at RUTG 36, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    28.1%−2.3
    42% to make
    Punt
    13.2%−17.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 0:00RUTG 4th & 30 at RUTG 16, up 3
    Numbers favored punt by 10.9 ptsWent for it · 85.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.2%−10.9
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    85.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MD made the numbers' call on 5 of 5RUTG made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 9:08MD Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:51MD Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:16RUTG Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:19MD Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:29MD Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 2:52MD Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:09RUTG Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 13:47RUTG Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 5:36RUTG Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 14:55RUTG Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MDDrive 1TD
12 plays · 66 yds · 5:5276% → 76%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+13
75.5%
Wes Brown run for 13 yds to the Mary 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
75.4%
C.J. Brown run for 2 yds to the Mary 49Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 8
OWN 49
0
75.4%
Wes Brown run for no gain to the Mary 49Similar
Q1 13:15
3RD & 8
OWN 49
+12
75.2%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Jacquille Veii for 12 yds to the Rutgr 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
75.2%
Wes Brown run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 35Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+14
75.2%
C.J. Brown run for 14 yds to the Rutgr 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
75.1%
Wes Brown run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 18Similar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+5
75.1%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Deon Long for 5 yds to the Rutgr 13Similar
Q1 10:10
3RD & 2
OPP 13
+5
74.8%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Deon Long for 5 yds to the Rutgr 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
75.0%
C.J. Brown run for 7 yds to the Rutgr 1Similar
Q1 9:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
76.4%
C.J. Brown run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brad Craddock KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:4224% → 24%
Q1 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+12
75.8%
Robert Martin run for 12 yds to the Rutgr 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
75.8%
Gary Nova pass incomplete to Leonte CarrooSimilar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+3
75.9%
Robert Martin run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 32Similar
Q1 7:40
3RD & 7
OWN 32
0
76.0%
Gary Nova pass incomplete to Andre PattonSimilar
Q1 7:26
4TH & 7
OWN 32
+3
76.2%
Joseph Roth punt for 45 yds , William Likely returns for 3 yds to the Mary 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1176% → 76%
Q1 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
76.0%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Jacquille VeiiSimilar
Q1 7:16
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
75.9%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Marcus LeakSimilar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+5
75.7%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Wes Brown for 5 yds to the Mary 31Similar
Q1 6:15
4TH & 5
OWN 31
0
75.6%
Nathan Renfro punt for 44 yds, downed at the Rutgr 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 4FG
10 plays · 66 yds · 5:2724% → 27%
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
75.9%
Josh Hicks run for 5 yds to the Rutgr 30Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+25
75.8%
Josh Hicks run for 25 yds to the Mary 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+16
75.2%
Gary Nova pass complete to Leonte Carroo for 16 yds to the Mary 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
74.7%
Josh Hicks run for 9 yds to the Mary 20Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 1
OPP 20
0
74.6%
Josh Hicks run for no gain to the Mary 20Similar
Q1 2:54
3RD & 1
OPP 20
+4
74.9%
Josh Hicks run for 4 yds to the Mary 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
74.2%
Josh Hicks run for 5 yds to the Mary 11Similar
Q1 1:34
2ND & 5
OPP 11
0
74.1%
Gary Nova pass incomplete to Leonte CarrooSimilar
Q1 1:22
3RD & 5
OPP 11
+2
74.7%
Gary Nova run for 2 yds to the Mary 9Similar
Q1 0:48
4TH & 3
OPP 9
+26
72.8%
Kyle Federico 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 5TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:5774% → 77%
Q1 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
73.5%
Wes Brown run for 2 yds to the Mary 27Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
73.3%
Wes Brown run for 2 yds to the Mary 29Similar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+71
77.2%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Amba Etta-Tawo for 71 yds for a TD, (Brad Craddock KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 6TD
9 plays · 63 yds · 3:3523% → 30%
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
77.1%
Gary Nova pass complete to Andre Patton for 8 yds to the Rutgr 45Similar
Q2 13:59
2ND & 2
OWN 45
0
77.0%
Gary Nova pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:49
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+2
77.1%
Robert Martin run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+12
77.1%
Robert Martin run for 12 yds to the Mary 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+22
76.9%
Gary Nova pass complete to Andre Patton for 22 yds to the Mary 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
76.1%
Robert Martin run for 1 yd to the Mary 18Similar
Q2 11:40
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+11
76.1%
Robert Martin run for 11 yds to the Mary 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
70.3%
Gary Nova pass complete to Leonte Carroo for 7 yds for a TD, (Kyle Federico KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 7TD
9 plays · 82 yds · 1:5773% → 81%
Q2 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-5
72.7%
MARYLAND Penalty, Delay of Game (C.J. Brown) to the Mary 13Similar
Q2 10:51
1ST & 15
OWN 13
+12
72.6%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Jacquille Veii for 12 yds to the Mary 25Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 3
OWN 25
+29
72.9%
Brandon Ross run for 14 yds to the Rutgr 39 for a 1ST down RUTGERS Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Johnathan Aiken) to the Rutgr 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+18
74.1%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Deon Long for 18 yds to the Rutgr 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
74.6%
C.J. Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:41
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+14
74.5%
C.J. Brown run for 14 yds to the Rutgr 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
74.6%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Deon Long for 5 yds to the Rutgr 9Similar
Q2 9:19
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+9
80.6%
Brandon Ross run for 9 yds for a TD, (Brad Craddock KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 8FUMBLE
6 plays · 15 yds · 2:4121% → 21%
Q2 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
78.9%
Josh Hicks run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 29Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-9
78.7%
Josh Hicks run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 30 RUTGERS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Kaleb Johnson) to the Rutgr 20Similar
Q2 7:40
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+5
79.6%
Gary Nova pass complete to Janarion Grant for 5 yds to the Rutgr 25Similar
Q2 7:16
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+16
80.1%
Gary Nova pass complete to Andre Patton for 16 yds to the Rutgr 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
78.7%
Gary Nova sacked by Sean Davis for a loss of 1 yard to the Rutgr 40 Gary Nova fumbled, forced by Sean Davis, recovered by Mary Cole Farrand , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 9TD
1 play · 40 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q2 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
86.8%
Brandon Ross run for 40 yds for a TD, (Brad Craddock KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2914% → 14%
Q2 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
85.7%
Gary Nova pass incomplete to Leonte CarrooSimilar
Q2 6:13
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
86.0%
Gary Nova pass incomplete to Michael BurtonSimilar
Q2 6:09
3RD & 10
OWN 23
0
86.1%
Gary Nova pass incomplete to Tyler KroftSimilar
Q2 6:00
4TH & 10
OWN 23
0
86.4%
Joseph Roth punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mary 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 11TD
8 plays · 60 yds · 3:0887% → 93%
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+23
86.9%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Deon Long for 23 yds to the Rutgr 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-10
87.1%
C.J. Brown run for no gain to the Rutgr 47 C.J. Brown fumbled, recovered by Mary Brandon Ross MARYLAND Penalty, Illegal Batting (Brandon Ross) to the Rutgr 47Similar
Q2 5:40
2ND & 20
OPP 47
+16
87.0%
Kenneth Goins Jr. run for 16 yds to the Rutgr 31Similar
Q2 5:01
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+16
86.8%
C.J. Brown run for 16 yds to the Rutgr 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
87.4%
Brown, C.J. pass incomplete to Long, Deon, PENALTY MARYLAND ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the RUTGERS20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:05
1ST & 15
OPP 20
+11
87.8%
C.J. Brown run for 11 yds to the Rutgr 9Similar
Q2 3:25
2ND & 4
OPP 9
0
87.8%
Brandon Ross run for no gain to the Rutgr 9Similar
Q2 2:52
3RD & 4
OPP 9
+9
92.5%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Deon Long for 9 yds for a TD, (Brad Craddock KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 12TD
22 plays · 77 yds · 2:4312% → 18%
Q2 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
88.5%
Gary Nova pass incomplete to Andre PattonSimilar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+13
88.8%
Gary Nova pass complete to Andre Patton for 13 yds to the Rutgr 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
88.2%
Gary Nova pass incomplete to Janarion GrantSimilar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-10
88.3%
RUTGERS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Kaleb Johnson) to the Rutgr 26Similar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 20
OWN 26
+2
87.4%
Gary Nova pass complete to Michael Burton for 2 yds to the Rutgr 28Similar
Q2 1:21
3RD & 18
OWN 28
0
87.4%
Gary Nova pass incomplete to Tyler KroftSimilar
Q2 1:07
4TH & 18
OWN 28
+15
87.3%
MARYLAND Penalty, Roughing the Kicker (Kenneth Goins Jr.) to the Rutgr 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
88.3%
Gary Nova pass complete to Janarion Grant for 4 yds to the Rutgr 47Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 6
OWN 47
-5
87.6%
RUTGERS Penalty, False Start (Keith Lumpkin) to the Rutgr 42Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 11
OWN 42
0
86.8%
Gary Nova pass incomplete to Tyler KroftSimilar
Q2 0:37
3RD & 11
OWN 42
+38
88.1%
Gary Nova pass complete to Janarion Grant for 38 yds to the Mary 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
84.7%
Gary Nova pass complete to Tyler Kroft for 5 yds to the Mary 15Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+10
77.8%
Gary Nova pass complete to Andre Patton for 10 yds to the Mary 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
73.8%
Gary Nova pass complete to Janarion Grant for 4 yds to the Mary 1Similar
Q2 0:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
73.6%
MARYLAND Penalty, Defensive Offside ( Yards) to the Mary 1Similar
Q2 0:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
74.6%
Gary Nova pass incomplete to Leonte CarrooSimilar
Q2 0:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
82.1%
Gary Nova pass complete to Andre Patton for 1 yd for a TD, (Kyle Federico KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
89.6%
TEAM run for no gain to the Mary 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 14TD
4 plays · 25 yds · 1:1313% → 21%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+21
86.6%
Gary Nova pass complete to Andre Patton for 21 yds to the Mary 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
86.9%
Robert Martin run for 3 yds to the Mary 1Similar
Q3 13:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
79.4%
Robert Martin run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kyle Federico KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 15PUNT
10 plays · 24 yds · 3:2883% → 83%
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
82.9%
Wes Brown run for 4 yds to the Mary 25Similar
Q3 12:49
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+2
83.0%
Kenneth Goins Jr. run for 2 yds to the Mary 27Similar
Q3 12:16
3RD & 4
OWN 27
+11
82.3%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Wes Brown for 11 yds to the Mary 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
84.2%
Wes Brown run for 10 yds to the Mary 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
84.5%
Wes Brown run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 48Similar
Q3 10:51
2ND & 6
OPP 48
-2
84.7%
C.J. Brown sacked by Djwany Mera for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:40
3RD & 8
50
0
83.9%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Deon LongSimilar
Q3 10:19
4TH & 8
50
-5
83.0%
MARYLAND Penalty, False Start (Sean Davis) to the Mary 45Similar
Q3 10:12
4TH & 13
OWN 45
+25
82.6%
Nathan Renfro punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Janarion Grant at the MARYLAND 15 MARYLAND Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (Jacquille Veii) to the Rutgr 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 16TD
10 plays · 70 yds · 4:3618% → 33%
Q3 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
82.5%
Josh Hicks run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 33Similar
Q3 9:32
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+17
82.7%
Gary Nova pass complete to Tyler Kroft for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
50
0
81.3%
Gary Nova pass incomplete to Andre PattonSimilar
Q3 8:32
2ND & 10
50
-5
81.8%
Josh Hicks run for a loss of 5 yards to the Rutgr 45Similar
Q3 8:15
3RD & 15
OWN 45
+23
83.7%
Gary Nova pass complete to Janarion Grant for 23 yds to the Mary 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
80.6%
Gary Nova pass complete to Leonte Carroo for 8 yds to the Mary 24Similar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+6
80.3%
Gary Nova pass complete to Tyler Kroft for 6 yds to the Mary 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
80.4%
Josh Hicks run for 9 yds to the Mary 9Similar
Q3 5:58
2ND & 1
OPP 9
+1
80.4%
Josh Hicks run for 1 yd to the Mary 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
66.6%
Gary Nova pass complete to Leonte Carroo for 8 yds for a TD, (Kyle Federico KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 17FG
6 plays · 44 yds · 1:3774% → 80%
Q3 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+44
73.9%
Brandon Ross run for 44 yds to the Rutgr 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
77.2%
C.J. Brown run for no gain to the Rutgr 31Similar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
77.8%
C.J. Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:04
3RD & 10
OPP 31
0
76.2%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Amba Etta-TawoSimilar
Q3 3:59
4TH & 10
OPP 31
+50
80.3%
Brad Craddock 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 18TD
8 plays · 71 yds · 4:0423% → 46%
Q3 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
77.5%
Gary Nova pass complete to Robert Martin for 4 yds to the Rutgr 33Similar
Q3 3:01
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+42
76.8%
Gary Nova pass complete to Leonte Carroo for 42 yds to the Mary 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
72.5%
Robert Martin run for 1 yd to the Mary 24Similar
Q3 1:44
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+12
72.4%
Gary Nova pass complete to Janarion Grant for 12 yds to the Mary 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
73.9%
Robert Martin run for 4 yds to the Mary 8Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 8
-2
73.9%
Robert Martin run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mary 10Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 8
OPP 10
+10
53.9%
Gary Nova pass complete to Andre Patton for 10 yds for a TD, (Kyle Federico KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 19PUNT
12 plays · 32 yds · 3:5663% → 59%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
63.0%
Brandon Ross run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mary 24Similar
Q4 14:01
2ND & 12
OWN 24
+8
61.9%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Jacquille Veii for 8 yds to the Mary 32Similar
Q4 13:15
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+24
61.1%
C.J. Brown run for 24 yds to the Rutgr 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
66.9%
Jacquille Veii run for 6 yds to the Rutgr 38Similar
Q4 12:26
2ND & 4
OPP 38
-5
66.9%
MARYLAND Penalty, False Start (Andrew Zeller) to the Rutgr 43Similar
Q4 11:49
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+11
66.5%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Wes Brown for 11 yds to the Rutgr 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-10
67.8%
MARYLAND Penalty, Offensive Holding (Andrew Zeller) to the Rutgr 42Similar
Q4 11:17
1ST & 20
OPP 42
0
64.3%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Derrick HaywardSimilar
Q4 11:12
2ND & 20
OPP 42
0
64.0%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Jacquille VeiiSimilar
Q4 11:06
3RD & 20
OPP 42
0
62.1%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Malcolm CulmerSimilar
Q4 10:59
4TH & 20
OPP 42
0
59.1%
Nathan Renfro punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 20FG
12 plays · 72 yds · 4:3144% → 67%
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
56.4%
Josh Hicks run for 6 yds to the Rutgr 26Similar
Q4 10:13
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+24
55.1%
Janarion Grant run for 24 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
50
+7
50.7%
Gary Nova pass complete to Janarion Grant for 7 yds to the Mary 43Similar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+1
49.8%
Josh Hicks run for 1 yd to the Mary 42Similar
Q4 8:34
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+12
50.1%
Gary Nova pass complete to Janarion Grant for 12 yds to the Mary 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+23
48.1%
Gary Nova pass complete to Leonte Carroo for 23 yds to the Mary 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
47.3%
Josh Hicks run for 1 yd to the Mary 6Similar
Q4 6:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
45.6%
Gary Nova pass complete to Carlton Agudosi for 3 yds to the Mary 3Similar
Q4 6:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
48.6%
RUTGERS Penalty, False Start (Keith Lumpkin) to the Mary 8Similar
Q4 6:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
48.5%
Gary Nova pass incomplete to Andre PattonSimilar
Q4 6:14
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
33.4%
Kyle Federico 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 21MISSED FG
8 plays · 14 yds · 2:2948% → 36%
Q4 6:14
1ST & 10
50
+4
48.1%
C.J. Brown run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 46Similar
Q4 5:19
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+9
47.0%
C.J. Brown run for 9 yds to the Rutgr 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
46.8%
Brandon Ross run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 36Similar
Q4 4:29
2ND & 9
OPP 36
0
46.5%
Brandon Ross run for no gain to the Rutgr 36Similar
Q4 3:50
3RD & 9
OPP 36
0
45.2%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Jacquille VeiiSimilar
Q4 3:45
4TH & 9
OPP 36
+54
36.1%
Brad Craddock 54 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 22FUMBLE
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:5175% → 79%
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
24.7%
Robert Martin run for 7 yds to the Rutgr 43Similar
Q4 2:54
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+2
21.2%
Robert Martin run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 45 Robert Martin fumbled, forced by Cole Farrand, recovered by Mary Keith BowersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 23DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5442% → 29%
Q4 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
42.0%
C.J. Brown run for 7 yds to the Rutgr 38Similar
Q4 2:07
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+2
37.6%
Brandon Ross run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 36Similar
Q4 1:30
3RD & 1
OPP 36
0
37.1%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Deon Long for no gain to the Rutgr 36Similar
Q4 1:00
4TH & 1
OPP 36
0
29.0%
Brandon Ross run for no gain to the Rutgr 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 24DOWNS
9 plays · -22 yds · 1:0090% → 94%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-3
9.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Rutgr 33Similar
Q4 0:54
2ND & 13
OWN 33
-2
10.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Rutgr 31Similar
Q4 0:53
3RD & 15
OWN 31
0
11.3%
Josh Hicks run for no gain to the Rutgr 31Similar
Q4 0:06
4TH & 15
OWN 31
-5
7.6%
RUTGERS Penalty, Delay of Game (Gary Nova) to the Rutgr 26Similar
Q4 0:01
4TH & 20
OWN 26
-10
6.4%
RUTGERS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Rutgr 16Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 30
OWN 16
-2
6.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Rutgr 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:55
Gary Nova pass complete to Andre Patton for 10 yds for a TD, (Kyle Federico KICK)
-20
FG · Q4 6:14
Kyle Federico 25 yd FG GOOD
-15.1
TD · Q3 5:36
Gary Nova pass complete to Leonte Carroo for 8 yds for a TD, (Kyle Federico KICK)
-13.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com