Try the model
OSU

Ohio State 52 at Maryland 24

MD
2014 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2014 · SECU Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MD
modelMD aheadOSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMD scoreOSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:24 · Nathan Renfro punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Dontre Wilson at the OhSt 40
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+57.5+28.80−28.8−57.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 91Home team on offense−21.7Score differential−10.3Pregame prior−13.9Garbage-time factor−4.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:09: Michael Thomas 25 Yd pass from J.T. Barrett (Sean Nuernberger Kick) — OSU win probability +7.1 pts (now 84%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:34: Wes Brown 2 Yd Run (Brad Craddock Kick) — MD win probability +5.5 pts (now 21%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:57: Nick Vannett 1 Yd pass from J.T. Barrett (Sean Nuernberger Kick) — OSU win probability +8.9 pts (now 91%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:06: Brandon Ross 2 Yd Run (Brad Craddock Kick) — MD win probability +4.0 pts (now 8%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:32: Stefon Diggs 4 Yd pass from Caleb Rowe (Brad Craddock Kick) — MD win probability +3.9 pts (now 5%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MD made the numbers' call on 7 of 8OSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 10:00MD 4th & 10 at MD 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.3%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:00MD 4th & 7 at OSU 39, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.5%−0.4
    36% to make
    Punt
    28.6%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:51OSU 4th & 6 at MD 31, up 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 71.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.9%−0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    70.3%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:27MD 4th & 13 at MD 28, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.2%−0.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:45MD 4th & 21 at MD 14, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.8%−2.4
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:59OSU 4th & 8 at MD 12, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.0%−0.6
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.7%
    86% to make
    Punt
    75.6%−6.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:32MD 4th & 5 at OSU 45, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    16.0%−0.7
    25% to make
    Punt
    16.4%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:12OSU 4th & 13 at OSU 24, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.3%−2.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:24MD 4th & 5 at MD 30, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.3%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:42MD 4th & 5 at MD 30, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.5%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:34OSU 4th & 3 at MD 3, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.0%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    92.2%−0.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    88.2%−4.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:06OSU 4th & 9 at MD 44, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.1%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    97.9%−0.3
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:44OSU 4th & 1 at MD 1, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:20MD 4th & 2 at MD 10, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MD made the numbers' call on 3 of 3OSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 11:59OSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:33OSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:09OSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:34MD Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:57OSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:30OSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:06MD Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:54OSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 13:32MD Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 8:58OSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OSUDrive 1TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:5175% → 75%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
25.0%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 4 yds to the OhSt 29Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
25.1%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 8 yds to the OhSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+20
25.4%
J.T. Barrett run for 20 yds to the Mary 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
25.4%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 5 yds to the Mary 38Similar
Q1 12:53
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+28
25.7%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 28 yds to the Mary 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
25.7%
Rod Smith run for 1 yd to the Mary 9Similar
Q1 12:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
25.9%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Evan Spencer for 8 yds to the Mary 1Similar
Q1 11:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
25.2%
Rod Smith 1 Yd Run (Sean Nuernberger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 1:4626% → 26%
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
25.5%
C.J. Brown run for 3 yds to the Mary 14Similar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+6
25.6%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Deon Long for 6 yds to the Mary 20Similar
Q1 11:08
3RD & 1
OWN 20
+2
25.6%
C.J. Brown run for 2 yds to the Mary 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
25.7%
Brandon Ross run for no gain to the Mary 22Similar
Q1 10:14
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
25.8%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to P.J. GalloSimilar
Q1 10:09
3RD & 10
OWN 22
0
25.7%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Jacquille VeiiSimilar
Q1 10:00
4TH & 10
OWN 22
+5
25.6%
Nathan Renfro punt for 56 yds , Dontre Wilson returns for 5 yds to the OhSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 3TD
8 plays · 73 yds · 3:2274% → 77%
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
25.7%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Jalin MarshallSimilar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+9
25.9%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Corey Smith for 9 yds to the OhSt 36Similar
Q1 9:29
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+9
25.7%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 9 yds to the OhSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
25.5%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Dontre Wilson for 10 yds to the Mary 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+35
25.5%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Dontre Wilson for 35 yds to the Mary 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
25.3%
J.T. Barrett run for 1 yd to the Mary 9Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
25.4%
J.T. Barrett run for no gain to the Mary 9Similar
Q1 6:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
23.2%
Jalin Marshall 9 Yd pass from J.T. Barrett (Sean Nuernberger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 4FG
6 plays · 26 yds · 1:2624% → 26%
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+23
24.3%
Brandon Ross run for 23 yds to the OhSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
24.8%
Brandon Ross run for 1 yd to the OhSt 41Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+2
24.7%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Marcus Leak for 2 yds to the OhSt 39Similar
Q1 5:05
3RD & 7
OPP 39
0
24.6%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Stefon DiggsSimilar
Q1 5:00
4TH & 7
OPP 39
+57
26.2%
Brad Craddock 57 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 5MISSED FG
11 plays · 44 yds · 4:5775% → 75%
Q1 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
25.4%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Michael Thomas for 7 yds to the OhSt 32Similar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+6
25.2%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 6 yds to the OhSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
25.0%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 7 yds to the OhSt 45Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 3
OWN 45
-1
24.9%
J.T. Barrett run for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 44Similar
Q1 2:14
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+5
25.0%
J.T. Barrett run for 5 yds to the OhSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+16
24.9%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Nick Vannett for 16 yds to the Mary 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
24.7%
Ezekiel Elliott run for no gain to the Mary 35Similar
Q1 0:25
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+4
24.4%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 4 yds to the Mary 31Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 6
OPP 31
0
24.6%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Michael ThomasSimilar
Q2 14:51
4TH & 6
OPP 31
+48
24.9%
Sean Nuernberger 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:1125% → 24%
Q2 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-6
25.4%
C.J. Brown sacked by Michael Bennett for a loss of 6 yards to the Mary 25Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 16
OWN 25
+3
25.0%
Kenneth Goins Jr. run for 3 yds to the Mary 28Similar
Q2 13:34
3RD & 13
OWN 28
0
24.3%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Stefon DiggsSimilar
Q2 13:27
4TH & 13
OWN 28
+5
24.0%
Nathan Renfro punt for 33 yds , Dontre Wilson returns for 5 yds to the OhSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 7TD
3 plays · 56 yds · 1:1177% → 84%
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
23.5%
J.T. Barrett run for 8 yds to the Mary 48Similar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+23
23.4%
J.T. Barrett run for 23 yds to the Mary 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
16.3%
Michael Thomas 25 Yd pass from J.T. Barrett (Sean Nuernberger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 1:0519% → 18%
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
18.9%
C.J. Brown sacked by Rashad Frazier for a loss of 3 yards to the Mary 22Similar
Q2 11:29
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
18.7%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Stefon DiggsSimilar
Q2 11:00
3RD & 13
OWN 22
-8
18.3%
C.J. Brown sacked by Joey Bosa for a loss of 8 yards to the Mary 14Similar
Q2 10:45
4TH & 21
OWN 14
0
18.2%
Nathan Renfro punt for 26 yds, downed at the Mary 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 9FG
6 plays · 28 yds · 1:3584% → 87%
Q2 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+26
15.6%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Michael Thomas for 26 yds to the Mary 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
15.2%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 5 yds to the Mary 9Similar
Q2 10:07
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+2
15.2%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 2 yds to the Mary 7Similar
Q2 9:45
3RD & 3
OPP 7
0
15.2%
Ezekiel Elliott run for no gain to the Mary 7Similar
Q2 9:05
4TH & 3
OPP 7
-5
15.4%
OHIO ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Mary 12Similar
Q2 8:59
4TH & 8
OPP 12
+28
13.3%
Sean Nuernberger 28 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 10TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 6:1915% → 21%
Q2 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
14.5%
Jacquille Veii run for 11 yds to the Mary 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
14.6%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Stefon Diggs for 6 yds to the Mary 42Similar
Q2 7:50
2ND & 4
OWN 42
-6
15.4%
C.J. Brown run for a loss of 6 yards to the Mary 36Similar
Q2 7:31
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+14
14.3%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Wes Brown for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
50
-6
15.2%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Deon Long for 9 yds to the Mary 41 MARYLAND Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the Mary 44Similar
Q2 6:50
2ND & 16
OWN 44
0
14.4%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Marcus Leak for no gain to the Mary 44Similar
Q2 5:50
3RD & 16
OWN 44
+11
13.9%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Deon Long for 11 yds to the OhSt 45Similar
Q2 5:32
4TH & 5
OPP 45
+15
14.9%
C.J. Brown run for 15 yds to the OhSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+13
15.3%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Stefon Diggs for 13 yds to the OhSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
15.2%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Wes Brown for no gain to the OhSt 17Similar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+1
14.8%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Wes Brown for 1 yd to the OhSt 16Similar
Q2 3:16
3RD & 9
OPP 16
+14
14.4%
Brown, C.J. pass incomplete to Long, Deon, PENALTY OHIOST pass interference (Grant, Doran) 14 yards to the OHIOST2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MARYLAND. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
15.1%
C.J. Brown run for no gain to the OhSt 2Similar
Q2 2:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
20.7%
Wes Brown 2 Yd Run (Brad Craddock Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 1:1082% → 82%
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
18.4%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 4 yds to the OhSt 31Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 6
OWN 31
-12
17.5%
J.T. Barrett sacked by Andre Monroe for a loss of 12 yards to the OhSt 19Similar
Q2 1:22
3RD & 18
OWN 19
+5
18.2%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Devin Smith for 5 yds to the OhSt 24Similar
Q2 1:12
4TH & 13
OWN 24
0
17.9%
Cameron Johnston punt for 69 yds, downed at the Mary 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 12FUMBLE
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+5
17.6%
C.J. Brown pass intercepted Darron Lee return for 10 yds to the Mary 1 Darron Lee fumbled, recovered by OhSt Raekwon McMillan , return for 5 yds to the Mary 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 13TD
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q2 0:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
8.7%
Nick Vannett 1 Yd pass from J.T. Barrett (Sean Nuernberger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:2112% → 12%
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
11.7%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Jacquille Veii for 9 yds to the Mary 34Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
12.2%
C.J. Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-4
12.0%
Brandon Ross run for a loss of 4 yards to the Mary 30Similar
Q2 0:24
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
12.3%
Nathan Renfro punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Dontre Wilson at the OhSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 15END OF HALF
4 plays · 10 yds · 0:1990% → 91%
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
9.9%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Jeff HeuermanSimilar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
9.6%
J.T. Barrett pass incomplete to Devin SmithSimilar
Q2 0:07
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+11
9.7%
J.T. Barrett run for 11 yds to the Mary 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
8.9%
J.T. Barrett sacked by Yannick Ngakoue for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5812% → 11%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
11.5%
Caleb Rowe pass complete to Deon Long for 4 yds to the Mary 29Similar
Q3 14:27
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
11.5%
Caleb Rowe pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+1
11.3%
Caleb Rowe run for 1 yd to the Mary 30Similar
Q3 13:42
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+32
11.1%
Nathan Renfro punt for 31 yds , Dontre Wilson returns for 32 yds to the Mary 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 17DOWNS
8 plays · 23 yds · 3:0492% → 93%
Q3 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
8.5%
J.T. Barrett pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+3
8.5%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 3 yds to the Mary 26Similar
Q3 12:55
3RD & 7
OPP 26
-5
8.6%
OHIO ST Penalty, False Start (Taylor Decker) to the Mary 31Similar
Q3 12:37
3RD & 12
OPP 31
+25
7.7%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Corey Smith for 25 yds to the Mary 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
7.2%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 3 yds to the Mary 3Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
6.8%
Ezekiel Elliott run for no gain to the Mary 3 Ezekiel Elliott fumbled, recovered by OhSt Jeff HeuermanSimilar
Q3 11:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
6.7%
Ezekiel Elliott run for no gain to the Mary 3Similar
Q3 10:34
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
-3
7.1%
J.T. Barrett run for a loss of 3 yards to the Mary 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 18INT
8 plays · 67 yds · 2:3110% → 10%
Q3 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+14
9.7%
Caleb Rowe pass complete to Stefon Diggs for 14 yds to the Mary 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
9.6%
Caleb Rowe pass incomplete to Stefon DiggsSimilar
Q3 10:03
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+6
9.3%
Caleb Rowe pass complete to Stefon Diggs for 6 yds to the Mary 26Similar
Q3 9:34
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+25
9.3%
Caleb Rowe pass complete to Marcus Leak for 25 yds to the OhSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
9.0%
Caleb Rowe pass complete to Jacquille Veii for no gain to the OhSt 49Similar
Q3 8:25
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+15
8.8%
Caleb Rowe pass complete to Marcus Leak for 15 yds to the OhSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
9.4%
Brandon Ross run for 7 yds to the OhSt 27Similar
Q3 7:57
2ND & 3
OPP 27
0
9.6%
Caleb Rowe pass intercepted, touchback. Eli Apple return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 19TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 1:1794% → 98%
Q3 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
5.8%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 11 yds to the OhSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+11
5.4%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 11 yds to the OhSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+28
4.2%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Jeff Heuerman for 28 yds to the Mary 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
2.4%
Devin Smith 30 Yd pass from J.T. Barrett (Sean Nuernberger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 20TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:144% → 8%
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
4.1%
Caleb Rowe pass complete to Deon Long for 9 yds to the Mary 34Similar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+18
3.9%
Caleb Rowe pass complete to Deon Long for 18 yds to the OhSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+17
4.4%
Brandon Ross run for 2 yds to the OhSt 46 for a 1ST down OHIO ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the OhSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+10
4.7%
Caleb Rowe pass complete to Stefon Diggs for 10 yds to the OhSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
4.2%
Caleb Rowe run for 5 yds to the OhSt 16Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+7
3.6%
Brandon Ross run for 7 yds to the OhSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
4.4%
Rowe, Caleb pass incomplete to Leak, Marcus, PENALTY OHIOST pass interference (Lee, Darron) 7 yards to the OHIOST2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MARYLAND. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
8.4%
Brandon Ross 2 Yd Run (Brad Craddock Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 21TD
11 plays · 55 yds · 4:1297% → 99%
Q3 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
3.2%
OHIO ST Penalty, Sideline Interference (-5 Yards) to the OhSt 40Similar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
3.0%
J.T. Barrett run for 8 yds to the OhSt 48Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+9
2.7%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 9 yds to the Mary 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
2.7%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 9 yds to the Mary 34Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+2
2.5%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 2 yds to the Mary 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
2.4%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Corey Smith for 4 yds to the Mary 28Similar
Q3 0:42
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+18
2.3%
J.T. Barrett run for 18 yds to the Mary 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
2.2%
Barrett, J.T. pass incomplete to Thomas, Michael, PENALTY MARYLAND pass interference (Johnson, Jeremiah) 8 yards to the MARYLAND2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OHIOST. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-7
2.2%
J.T. Barrett sacked by Yannik Cudjoe-Virgil for a loss of 7 yards to the Mary 9Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
0.7%
J.T. Barrett 9 Yd Run (Sean Nuernberger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 22TD
8 plays · 74 yds · 1:101% → 5%
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
1.4%
Caleb Rowe pass incomplete to Brandon RossSimilar
Q4 14:25
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+9
1.3%
Caleb Rowe pass complete to Jacquille Veii for 9 yds to the Mary 35Similar
Q4 14:10
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+1
1.3%
Caleb Rowe run for 1 yd to the Mary 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
0.9%
Caleb Rowe pass incomplete to Deon LongSimilar
Q4 13:48
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
0.9%
Caleb Rowe pass incomplete to Brandon RossSimilar
Q4 13:37
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+60
0.9%
Caleb Rowe pass complete to Jacquille Veii for 60 yds to the OhSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
4.7%
Stefon Diggs 4 Yd pass from Caleb Rowe (Brad Craddock Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 23PUNT
9 plays · 31 yds · 4:1498% → 99%
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
2.2%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 4 yds to the OhSt 29Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
2.2%
Rod Smith run for 3 yds to the OhSt 32Similar
Q4 12:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+6
2.1%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Corey Smith for 6 yds to the OhSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+17
1.8%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Michael Thomas for 17 yds to the Mary 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
1.6%
Rod Smith run for 3 yds to the Mary 42Similar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 7
OPP 42
-8
1.5%
J.T. Barrett sacked by Andre Monroe for a loss of 8 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 9:33
3RD & 15
50
+6
1.4%
J.T. Barrett pass complete to Ezekiel Elliott for 6 yds to the Mary 44Similar
Q4 9:06
4TH & 9
OPP 44
0
1.5%
Cameron Johnston punt for 33 yds, fair catch by William Likely at the Mary 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 24INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+19
0.3%
Caleb Rowe pass intercepted by Raekwon McMillan return for 19 yds for a TD (Sean Nuernberger Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 25INT
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:300% → 0%
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
0.3%
Caleb Rowe pass complete to Stefon Diggs for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 21Similar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 11
OWN 21
+33
0.2%
Caleb Rowe pass intercepted Doran Grant return for 18 yds to the Mary 39 OHIO ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Mary 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 26DOWNS
8 plays · 25 yds · 4:26100% → 100%
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-3
0.3%
Cardale Jones pass complete to Dontre Wilson for a loss of 3 yards to the Mary 30Similar
Q4 7:25
2ND & 13
OPP 30
+5
0.2%
Ezekiel Elliott run for 5 yds to the Mary 25Similar
Q4 6:30
3RD & 8
OPP 25
+17
0.2%
Cardale Jones run for 17 yds to the Mary 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
0.2%
Cardale Jones run for 3 yds to the Mary 5Similar
Q4 5:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
0.2%
Cardale Jones run for 3 yds to the Mary 2Similar
Q4 4:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
0.2%
Rod Smith run for 1 yd to the Mary 1Similar
Q4 3:44
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
0.1%
Cardale Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:150% → 0%
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+6
0.1%
Wes Brown run for 6 yds to the Mary 8Similar
Q4 3:08
2ND & 4
OWN 8
0
0.1%
Caleb Rowe pass incomplete to Stefon DiggsSimilar
Q4 2:59
3RD & 4
OWN 8
+2
0.1%
Caleb Rowe run for 2 yds to the Mary 10Similar
Q4 2:20
4TH & 2
OWN 10
0
0.1%
Nathan Renfro punt for 41 yds, downed at the OhSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 28END OF GAME
4 plays · 28 yds · 2:00100% → 100%
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
0.1%
Cardale Jones run for 7 yds to the Mary 44Similar
Q4 1:25
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+21
0.1%
Cardale Jones run for 21 yds to the Mary 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
0.1%
Bri'onte Dunn run for 1 yd to the Mary 22Similar
Q4 0:10
2ND & 9
OPP 22
-1
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:57
Nick Vannett 1 Yd pass from J.T. Barrett (Sean Nuernberger Kick)
-8.9
TD · Q2 12:09
Michael Thomas 25 Yd pass from J.T. Barrett (Sean Nuernberger Kick)
-7.1
TD · Q2 2:34
Wes Brown 2 Yd Run (Brad Craddock Kick)
+5.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com