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IOWA

Iowa 31 at Maryland 38

MD
2014 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2014 · SECU Stadium
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Win probability · MD
modelMD aheadIOWA aheadconfidence bandkey playMD scoreIOWA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:37 · Nathan Renfro punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Riley McCarron at the Iowa 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 155Home team on offense+17.8Pregame prior+1.2Garbage-time factor+9.5Score differential+2.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:47: Wes Brown run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brad Craddock KICK) — MD win probability +7.9 pts (now 64%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:18: Perry Hills pass complete to Stefon Diggs for 53 yds for a TD, (Brad Craddock KICK) — MD win probability +17.1 pts (now 81%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:46: Mark Weisman run for 2 yds for a TD, (Marshall Koehn KICK) — IOWA win probability +20.6 pts (now 44%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:29: Jake Rudock pass intercepted for a TD William Likely return for 45 yds for a TD, (Brad Craddock KICK) — MD win probability +18.2 pts (now 82%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 1:19: Marshall Koehn 24 yd FG GOOD — IOWA win probability +8.9 pts (now 17%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MD made the numbers' call on 8 of 11IOWA made the numbers' call on 7 of 12
  1. Q1 9:47MD 4th & 11 at IOWA 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.4%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:48IOWA 4th & 5 at MD 9, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.1%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    45.2%
    89% to make
    Punt
    43.3%−1.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:33IOWA 4th & 5 at MD 48, up 7
    Close callPunted · 48.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:15MD 4th & 13 at MD 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.1%−1.7
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:46MD 4th & 5 at IOWA 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.9%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.9%
    70% to make
    Punt
    45.6%−5.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:53IOWA 4th & 21 at IOWA 14, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.0%−2.7
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:30IOWA 4th & 9 at MD 44, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.0%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    37.4%−0.7
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    38.1%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:02IOWA 4th & 6 at MD 37, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    38.3%−1.1
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    38.0%−1.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:46MD 4th & 3 at MD 16, up 3
    Close callPunted · 61.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.3%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:41IOWA 4th & 8 at IOWA 45, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.3%−1.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:21MD 4th & 10 at MD 5, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.7%−2.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:56MD 4th & 1 at MD 44, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsPunted · 65.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.4%−2.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:14IOWA 4th & 9 at IOWA 38, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.7%−1.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.1%
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:44MD 4th & 14 at MD 17, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.3%−5.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:46IOWA 4th & 2 at MD 44, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.6 ptsPunted · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    32.5%−4.7
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    34.6%−2.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:09MD 4th & 7 at MD 23, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.1%−2.8
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.9%
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:13IOWA 4th & 9 at IOWA 26, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.5%−1.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.5%
    average punt
  18. Q4 9:37MD 4th & 7 at MD 41, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.6%−0.9
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.5%
    average punt
  19. Q4 8:37IOWA 4th & 5 at IOWA 20, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.3%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.7%
    average punt
  20. Q4 4:58MD 4th & 1 at IOWA 1, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.2%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    89.6%−1.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    85.7%−5.5
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:19IOWA 4th & 5 at MD 6, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.9%
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.2%−0.8
    91% to make
    Punt
    4.0%−1.9
    average punt
  22. Q4 0:59MD 4th & 6 at IOWA 38, up 7
    Close callPunted · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    94.9%−0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.5%−0.4
    average punt
  23. Q4 0:05IOWA 4th & 4 at IOWA 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.7%−1.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MD made the numbers' call on 5 of 5IOWA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 12:45IOWA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:29IOWA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:40MD Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:47MD Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:18MD Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:46IOWA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:29MD Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:58MD Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 2:58IOWA Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MDDrive 1INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
58.0%
C.J. Brown pass intercepted Drew Ott return for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 2TD
5 plays · 32 yds · 2:0042% → 43%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+12
57.9%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jake Duzey for 12 yds to the Mary 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
57.9%
Mark Weisman run for 1 yd to the Mary 19Similar
Q1 13:43
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+8
57.8%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Damon Bullock for 8 yds to the Mary 11Similar
Q1 13:20
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+7
57.8%
Mark Weisman run for 7 yds to the Mary 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
57.0%
Mark Weisman run for 4 yds for a TD, (Marshall Koehn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 2:5357% → 56%
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
57.2%
C.J. Brown run for 4 yds to the Mary 29Similar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+9
57.1%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Stefon Diggs for 9 yds to the Mary 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
57.0%
Brandon Ross run for 9 yds to the Mary 47Similar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+7
57.2%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Stefon Diggs for 7 yds to the Iowa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
57.2%
Brandon Ross run for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 47Similar
Q1 10:35
2ND & 11
OPP 47
0
56.9%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Marcus LeakSimilar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 11
OPP 47
0
56.5%
C.J. Brown sacked by Drew Ott and Nate Meier for 0 yards to the Iowa 47Similar
Q1 9:47
4TH & 11
OPP 47
0
56.2%
Nathan Renfro punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 4TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 3:0544% → 49%
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+52
56.1%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Damon Bullock for 52 yds to the Mary 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+14
55.3%
Jordan Canzeri run for 14 yds to the Mary 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
54.8%
Jordan Canzeri run for 4 yds to the Mary 10Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+1
54.6%
Jordan Canzeri run for 1 yd to the Mary 9Similar
Q1 7:30
3RD & 5
OPP 9
0
54.4%
Damon Bullock run for no gain to the Mary 9Similar
Q1 6:48
4TH & 5
OPP 9
+7
54.5%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Damon Bullock for 7 yds to the Mary 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
50.6%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Henry Krieger Coble for 2 yds for a TD, (Marshall Koehn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 5TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:4052% → 56%
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
51.9%
Brandon Ross run for 4 yds to the Mary 29Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
51.7%
Brandon Ross run for 7 yds to the Mary 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
51.6%
Jacquille Veii run for 10 yds to the Mary 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
51.7%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Stefon Diggs for 3 yds to the Mary 49Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+9
51.4%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Kenneth Goins Jr. for 9 yds to the Iowa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+19
51.5%
C.J. Brown run for 19 yds to the Iowa 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
55.7%
Jacquille Veii run for 23 yds for a TD, (Brad Craddock KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:5748% → 48%
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
52.5%
Jonathan Parker run for a loss of 5 yards to the Iowa 42Similar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 15
OWN 42
0
52.8%
Jake Rudock sacked by Andre Monroe and Keith Bowers for 0 yards to the Iowa 42Similar
Q1 2:00
3RD & 15
OWN 42
+10
52.7%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Damon Bullock for 10 yds to the Mary 48Similar
Q1 1:33
4TH & 5
OPP 48
0
51.9%
Connor Kornbrath punt for 33 yds, fair catch by William Likely at the Mary 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:1153% → 51%
Q1 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
52.5%
C.J. Brown run for 9 yds to the Mary 24Similar
Q1 0:56
2ND & 1
OWN 24
+11
52.7%
C.J. Brown run for 11 yds to the Mary 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
52.6%
C.J. Brown sacked by Drew Ott for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 34Similar
Q1 0:25
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+1
52.4%
Brandon Ross run for 1 yd to the Mary 35Similar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 10
OWN 35
-3
51.5%
C.J. Brown sacked by Drew Ott for a loss of 3 yards to the Mary 32Similar
Q2 14:15
4TH & 13
OWN 32
+11
50.8%
Nathan Renfro punt for 45 yds , Riley McCarron returns for 11 yds to the Iowa 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 8FUMBLE
2 plays · 19 yds · 0:3549% → 51%
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
50.8%
LeShun Daniels Jr. run for no gain to the Iowa 34Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+34
49.4%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jake Duzey for 19 yds Jake Duzey fumbled, recovered by Mary Darius Kilgo MARYLAND Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (NA) to the Mary 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 9FG
7 plays · 45 yds · 2:3452% → 56%
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
51.7%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Stefon Diggs for 7 yds to the Mary 39Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+6
53.3%
Brandon Ross run for 16 yds to the MARYLAND 45 for a 1ST down MARYLAND Penalty, Offensive Holding (NA) to the Mary 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+27
52.3%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Stefon Diggs for 27 yds to the Iowa 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
53.8%
Wes Brown run for 2 yds to the Iowa 26Similar
Q2 11:43
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+7
53.7%
C.J. Brown run for 7 yds to the Iowa 19Similar
Q2 11:15
3RD & 1
OPP 19
-4
52.7%
C.J. Brown run for a loss of 4 yards to the Iowa 23Similar
Q2 10:46
4TH & 5
OPP 23
+41
55.5%
Brad Craddock 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 1:4746% → 45%
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
54.2%
Jordan Canzeri run for 1 yd to the Iowa 26Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-12
54.1%
Jake Rudock sacked by Darius Kilgo for a loss of 12 yards to the Iowa 14Similar
Q2 9:20
3RD & 21
OWN 14
0
54.7%
Damon Bullock run for no gain to the Iowa 14Similar
Q2 8:53
4TH & 21
OWN 14
0
55.3%
Dillon Kidd punt for 30 yds, fair catch by William Likely at the Iowa 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 11TD
6 plays · 44 yds · 1:5856% → 64%
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+21
56.4%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Juwann Winfree for 6 yds to the Iowa 38 for a 1ST down IOWA Penalty, Personal Foul (NA) to the Iowa 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
57.2%
Brandon Ross run for 1 yd to the Iowa 22Similar
Q2 7:54
2ND & 9
OPP 22
0
56.2%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Stefon DiggsSimilar
Q2 7:45
3RD & 9
OPP 22
+18
55.1%
C.J. Brown run for 13 yds to the Iowa 9 for a 1ST down IOWA Penalty, Personal Foul (Sean Draper) to the Iowa 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
56.2%
C.J. Brown run for 3 yds to the Iowa 1Similar
Q2 6:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
64.1%
Wes Brown run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brad Craddock KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 12PUNT
11 plays · 31 yds · 3:1039% → 39%
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
60.8%
Mark Weisman run for 9 yds to the Iowa 34Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+9
59.6%
Mark Weisman run for 9 yds to the Iowa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
59.1%
Mark Weisman run for no gain to the Iowa 43Similar
Q2 5:13
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
59.7%
Jake Rudock pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:05
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+12
60.5%
Jake Rudock run for 12 yds to the Mary 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
58.4%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jake Duzey for 4 yds to the Mary 41Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 6
OPP 41
-3
58.4%
Jordan Canzeri run for 7 yds to the Mary 34 IOWA Penalty, Offensive Holding (NA) to the Mary 44Similar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 9
OPP 44
0
58.5%
Jake Rudock pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:37
3RD & 9
OPP 44
0
59.2%
Jake Rudock pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:30
4TH & 9
OPP 44
0
61.2%
Connor Kornbrath punt for 30 yds, fair catch by William Likely at the Mary 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 13INT
12 plays · 52 yds · 3:0362% → 65%
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+14
61.5%
C.J. Brown run for 14 yds to the Mary 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-9
61.7%
C.J. Brown run for a loss of 9 yards to the Mary 19Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 19
OWN 19
+6
61.1%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Stefon Diggs for 6 yds to the Mary 25Similar
Q2 1:35
3RD & 13
OWN 25
+15
61.3%
C.J. Brown run for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down MARYLAND Penalty, Illegal Block (NA) to the Mary 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
64.3%
Stefon Diggs run for 8 yds to the Mary 48Similar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 2
OWN 48
0
65.3%
C.J. Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:55
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+3
64.5%
Wes Brown run for 3 yds to the Iowa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
65.6%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Stefon Diggs for a 1ST down IOWA Penalty, Personal Foul (NA) to the Iowa 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
66.8%
C.J. Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
66.7%
C.J. Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:17
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+22
65.1%
C.J. Brown pass intercepted Sean Draper return for 22 yds to the Iowa 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 14END OF HALF
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:0939% → 40%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
60.9%
Jake Rudock run for 4 yds to the Iowa 42Similar
Q2 0:06
2ND & 6
OWN 42
0
59.6%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Jake DuzeySimilar
Q2 0:01
3RD & 6
OWN 42
0
60.5%
Jake Rudock pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 28 yds · 1:5039% → 40%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
61.0%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Mark Weisman for 11 yds to the Iowa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+13
59.0%
Jonathan Parker run for 13 yds to the Mary 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
58.6%
Jake Rudock pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+4
58.6%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Ray Hamilton for 4 yds to the Mary 37Similar
Q3 13:12
3RD & 6
OPP 37
0
58.8%
Jake Rudock pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:02
4TH & 6
OPP 37
0
60.3%
Connor Kornbrath punt for 28 yds, downed at the Mary 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:0463% → 60%
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
62.9%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Kenneth Goins Jr. for 3 yds to the Mary 12Similar
Q3 12:12
2ND & 7
OWN 12
0
61.8%
C.J. Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 7
OWN 12
+4
60.7%
C.J. Brown run for 4 yds to the Mary 16Similar
Q3 11:46
4TH & 3
OWN 16
+2
60.0%
Nathan Renfro punt for 43 yds , Riley McCarron returns for 2 yds to the Iowa 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5942% → 38%
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
58.2%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Jordan CanzeriSimilar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+2
59.1%
Jordan Canzeri run for 2 yds to the Iowa 45Similar
Q3 10:53
3RD & 8
OWN 45
0
59.6%
Jake Rudock pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:41
4TH & 8
OWN 45
+2
61.7%
Connor Kornbrath punt for 52 yds , William Likely returns for 2 yds to the Mary 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 18FUMBLE
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1762% → 60%
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
61.7%
Perry Hills pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:35
2ND & 10
OWN 5
0
61.4%
Perry Hills pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:29
3RD & 10
OWN 5
0
60.1%
Perry Hills pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:21
4TH & 10
OWN 5
0
59.5%
Nathan Renfro punt for 30 yds , Desmond King returns for no gain to the Mary 35 Desmond King fumbled, recovered by Mary Anthony NixonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:1463% → 64%
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
63.2%
Perry Hills pass complete to Stefon Diggs for 3 yds to the Mary 38Similar
Q3 9:40
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+4
65.5%
Stefon Diggs run for 4 yds to the Mary 42Similar
Q3 9:05
3RD & 3
OWN 42
-5
64.9%
MARYLAND Penalty, Delay of Game (Perry Hills) to the Mary 37Similar
Q3 8:35
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+7
63.4%
Perry Hills pass complete to Amba Etta-Tawo for 7 yds to the Mary 44Similar
Q3 7:56
4TH & 1
OWN 44
0
64.3%
Nathan Renfro punt for 19 yds, downed at the Iowa 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:3340% → 37%
Q3 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-10
60.0%
IOWA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Sean Welsh) to the Iowa 27Similar
Q3 7:36
1ST & 20
OWN 27
+5
61.7%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Tevaun Smith for 5 yds to the Iowa 32Similar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 15
OWN 32
+6
62.2%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jake Duzey for 6 yds to the Iowa 38Similar
Q3 6:28
3RD & 9
OWN 38
0
61.0%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Jake DuzeySimilar
Q3 6:14
4TH & 9
OWN 38
+1
63.5%
Dillon Kidd punt for 47 yds , William Likely returns for 1 yd to the Mary 39 MARYLAND Penalty, Illegal Block (Josh Woods) to the Mary 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 21TD
5 plays · 92 yds · 1:4763% → 81%
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+8
62.9%
Perry Hills pass complete to Juwann Winfree for 8 yds to the Mary 16Similar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 2
OWN 16
+12
63.6%
Perry Hills run for 12 yds to the Mary 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
64.4%
Brandon Ross run for 4 yds to the Mary 32Similar
Q3 4:46
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+15
64.4%
Perry Hills pass complete to Stefon Diggs for 15 yds to the Mary 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+53
81.4%
Perry Hills pass complete to Stefon Diggs for 53 yds for a TD, (Brad Craddock KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 22TD
7 plays · 51 yds · 2:1424% → 44%
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
76.3%
Jordan Canzeri run for 6 yds to the Mary 45Similar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 4
OPP 45
0
75.6%
Jordan Canzeri run for no gain to the Mary 45Similar
Q3 2:50
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+5
76.9%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Kevonte Martin-Manley for 5 yds to the Mary 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
76.6%
Jake Rudock pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:09
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+38
76.8%
Mark Weisman run for 38 yds to the Mary 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
56.2%
Mark Weisman run for 2 yds for a TD, (Marshall Koehn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:5164% → 61%
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-6
64.1%
Brandon Ross run for a loss of 6 yards to the Mary 15Similar
Q3 1:11
2ND & 16
OWN 15
0
63.5%
Perry Hills pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:05
3RD & 16
OWN 15
+2
62.0%
Wes Brown run for 2 yds to the Mary 17Similar
Q3 0:44
4TH & 14
OWN 17
0
61.1%
Nathan Renfro punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Riley McCarron at the Iowa 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:4941% → 39%
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
59.2%
Mark Weisman run for 5 yds to the Mary 47Similar
Q3 0:05
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+3
58.4%
Mark Weisman run for 3 yds to the Mary 44Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 2
OPP 44
0
58.3%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Ray HamiltonSimilar
Q4 14:46
4TH & 2
OPP 44
0
60.9%
Connor Kornbrath punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2668% → 66%
Q4 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
68.3%
Perry Hills run for 2 yds to the Mary 22Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+1
68.0%
Perry Hills run for 1 yd to the Mary 23Similar
Q4 13:16
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
66.7%
Perry Hills pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:09
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
65.8%
Nathan Renfro punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Riley McCarron at the Iowa 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 26INT TD
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:3637% → 18%
Q4 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
63.1%
Jake Rudock pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:02
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+4
63.5%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Tevaun Smith for 4 yds to the Iowa 42Similar
Q4 12:29
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+45
81.7%
Jake Rudock pass intercepted for a TD William Likely return for 45 yds for a TD, (Brad Craddock KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:0716% → 14%
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
83.8%
Jake Rudock sacked by Darius Kilgo for a loss of 8 yards to the Iowa 17Similar
Q4 11:53
2ND & 18
OWN 17
0
84.6%
Jake Rudock pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:40
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+9
85.6%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Damon Bullock for 9 yds to the Iowa 26Similar
Q4 11:13
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
86.1%
Dillon Kidd punt for 36 yds, downed at the Mary 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 28PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2886% → 85%
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-4
86.1%
C.J. Brown sacked by Quinton Alston for a loss of 4 yards to the Mary 34Similar
Q4 10:40
2ND & 14
OWN 34
+6
84.9%
C.J. Brown run for 6 yds to the Mary 40Similar
Q4 10:10
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+1
85.9%
Wes Brown run for 1 yd to the Mary 41Similar
Q4 9:37
4TH & 7
OWN 41
0
85.1%
Nathan Renfro punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Riley McCarron at the Iowa 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 29PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5312% → 11%
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
87.9%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Damon Bullock for 4 yds to the Iowa 19Similar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 6
OWN 19
-10
88.1%
IOWA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Austin Blythe) to the Iowa 9Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 16
OWN 9
+7
88.6%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Tevaun Smith for 7 yds to the Iowa 16Similar
Q4 8:44
3RD & 9
OWN 16
+4
89.1%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Damon Bullock for 4 yds to the Iowa 20Similar
Q4 8:37
4TH & 5
OWN 20
0
89.4%
Dillon Kidd punt for 34 yds, fair catch by William Likely at the Mary 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 30TD
10 plays · 54 yds · 3:3291% → 99%
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
90.7%
Wes Brown run for 7 yds to the Iowa 47Similar
Q4 7:52
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+13
91.0%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Amba Etta-Tawo for 13 yds to the Iowa 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
91.6%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Kenneth Goins Jr.Similar
Q4 7:15
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
91.6%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Stefon DiggsSimilar
Q4 7:06
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+26
91.3%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Amba Etta-Tawo for 26 yds to the Iowa 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
91.8%
C.J. Brown run for 2 yds to the Iowa 6Similar
Q4 6:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
92.3%
C.J. Brown run for 1 yd to the Iowa 5Similar
Q4 5:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
92.3%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Wes Brown for 4 yds to the Iowa 1Similar
Q4 4:58
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.8%
Wes Brown run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brad Craddock KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 31TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 1:482% → 9%
Q4 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
97.6%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Damond Powell for 16 yds to the Iowa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
97.5%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Kevonte Martin-Manley for 2 yds to the Iowa 43Similar
Q4 4:09
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+7
97.5%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jake Duzey for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 4:00
3RD & 1
50
+7
97.4%
Jake Rudock run for 7 yds to the Mary 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
97.5%
Jake Rudock pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:44
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
97.5%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Damond PowellSimilar
Q4 3:38
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+14
97.6%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Tevaun Smith for 14 yds to the Mary 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+25
97.1%
Jake Rudock pass complete to George Kittle for 25 yds to the Mary 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
97.1%
Jake Rudock pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
97.1%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Kevonte Martin-ManleySimilar
Q4 2:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
91.3%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jacob Hillyer for 4 yds for a TD, (Marshall Koehn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 32FG
11 plays · 44 yds · 1:258% → 17%
Q4 2:44
1ST & 10
50
+16
92.0%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Damond Powell for 16 yds to the Mary 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-12
91.5%
Jake Rudock sacked by Yannick Ngakoue for a loss of 12 yards to the Mary 46 IOWA Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Jake Rudock) to the Mary 46Similar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 22
OPP 46
+23
92.7%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jake Duzey for 23 yds to the Mary 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
90.9%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jake Duzey for 4 yds to the Mary 19Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+4
91.0%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Damond Powell for 4 yds to the Mary 15Similar
Q4 1:45
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+4
91.5%
Jake Rudock run for 4 yds to the Mary 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
91.1%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Jake Duzey for 5 yds to the Mary 6Similar
Q4 1:26
2ND & 5
OPP 6
0
91.1%
Jake Rudock pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:22
3RD & 5
OPP 6
0
91.6%
Jake Rudock pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:19
4TH & 5
OPP 6
+24
82.7%
Marshall Koehn 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 33PUNT
8 plays · 4 yds · 0:1696% → 96%
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
95.5%
Wes Brown run for 2 yds to the Iowa 40Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+2
96.2%
C.J. Brown run for 2 yds to the Iowa 38Similar
Q4 1:05
3RD & 6
OPP 38
0
96.2%
C.J. Brown run for no gain to the Iowa 38Similar
Q4 0:59
4TH & 6
OPP 38
0
96.3%
Nathan Renfro punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 34DOWNS
6 plays · 24 yds · 0:487% → 7%
Q4 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
93.0%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Kevonte Martin-Manley for 7 yds to the Iowa 27Similar
Q4 0:46
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+11
92.5%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Kevonte Martin-Manley for 11 yds to the Iowa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
92.5%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Kevonte Martin-ManleySimilar
Q4 0:26
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
92.8%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Damond PowellSimilar
Q4 0:16
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+6
93.5%
Jake Rudock pass complete to Damon Bullock for 6 yds to the Iowa 44Similar
Q4 0:05
4TH & 4
OWN 44
0
92.9%
Jake Rudock pass incomplete to Tevaun SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 35END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
97.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:46
Mark Weisman run for 2 yds for a TD, (Marshall Koehn KICK)
-20.6
TD · Q4 12:29
Jake Rudock pass intercepted for a TD William Likely return for 45 yds for a TD, (Brad Craddock KICK)
+18.2
TD · Q3 4:18
Perry Hills pass complete to Stefon Diggs for 53 yds for a TD, (Brad Craddock KICK)
+17.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com