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MD

Maryland 20 at Illinois 17

ILL
2021 · Week 3 · Sep 17, 2021 · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
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Win probability · ILL
modelILL aheadMD aheadconfidence bandkey playILL scoreMD score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGFGTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:50 · Colton Spangler punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Donny Navarro III at the Illin 33
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 14Pregame prior−19.8Home team on offense−0.1Score differential−0.3Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 10:43: Joseph Petrino 32 yd FG GOOD — ILL win probability +3.4 pts (now 40%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. FG · Q2 3:43: Joseph Petrino 32 yd FG MISSED — MD win probability +3.0 pts (now 62%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 13:11: Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 2 yds for a TD, (Joseph Petrino KICK) — MD win probability +10.9 pts (now 75%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:15: Joshua McCray run for 38 yds for a TD, (James McCourt KICK) — ILL win probability +22.7 pts (now 52%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 15:00: Reggie Love III run for 5 yds to the Illin 37 — ILL win probability +28.1 pts (now 78%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ILL made the numbers' call on 6 of 8MD made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 11:32ILL 4th & 8 at MD 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 35.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.0%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    35.0%−<0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    35.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:50MD 4th & 2 at MD 17, tied
    Close callPunted · 64.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.0%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:48ILL 4th & 8 at ILL 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.6%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:32MD 4th & 10 at MD 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.1%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.5%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:50ILL 4th & 7 at MD 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.7%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.8%
    90% to make
    Punt
    37.6%−2.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:50ILL 4th & 7 at MD 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.7%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.8%
    90% to make
    Punt
    37.6%−2.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:43MD 4th & 11 at ILL 14, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.7%−0.9
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.5%
    84% to make
    Punt
    52.4%−4.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:15ILL 4th & 18 at ILL 20, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.6%−2.4
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:43MD 4th & 6 at ILL 14, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.5%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.9%
    84% to make
    Punt
    46.4%−6.5
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:27ILL 4th & 5 at MD 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.7%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.9%
    91% to make
    Punt
    40.4%−5.5
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:40MD 4th & 12 at MD 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.1%−1.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:21ILL 4th & 7 at ILL 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.7%−1.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:41MD 4th & 5 at MD 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.2%−1.9
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.1%
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:18MD 4th & 1 at MD 42, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.8 ptsPunted · 53.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.1%−3.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:50ILL 4th & 6 at MD 45, up 14
    Close callPunted · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    95.5%−0.7
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    96.0%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ILL made the numbers' call on 1 of 1MD made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q3 13:11MD Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 6:15ILL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ILLDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 35 yds · 3:2829% → 31%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
28.8%
Chase Brown run for 3 yds to the Illin 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
28.8%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Casey WashingtonSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+19
28.8%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 19 yds to the Illin 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
28.8%
Chase Brown run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
50
+8
28.8%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Deuce Spann for 8 yds to the Mary 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
28.8%
Jakari Norwood run for 2 yds to the Mary 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 40
0
28.8%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Jakari NorwoodSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 40
0
28.8%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Isaiah WilliamsSimilar
Q1 11:32
4TH & 8
OPP 40
0
30.5%
Blake Hayes punt for 31 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:4270% → 69%
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+8
30.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Dontay Demus Jr. for 8 yds to the Mary 17Similar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 2
OWN 17
+2
30.4%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 2 yds to the Mary 15Similar
Q1 11:32
3RD & 4
OWN 15
+2
30.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 2 yds to the Mary 17Similar
Q1 9:50
4TH & 2
OWN 17
0
31.5%
Colton Spangler punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Donny Navarro III at the Illin 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:0231% → 31%
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
31.3%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Daniel BarkerSimilar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+2
31.2%
Chase Brown run for 2 yds to the Illin 35Similar
Q1 9:50
3RD & 8
OWN 35
0
31.1%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Isaiah WilliamsSimilar
Q1 8:48
4TH & 8
OWN 35
0
31.2%
Blake Hayes punt for 58 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 3:1668% → 67%
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
31.6%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 2 yds to the Mary 4Similar
Q1 8:48
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+8
31.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Dontay Demus Jr. for 8 yds to the Mary 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
31.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Jeshaun JonesSimilar
Q1 8:48
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+20
31.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Dontay Demus Jr. for 20 yds to the Mary 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
31.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Rakim JarrettSimilar
Q1 8:48
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+5
31.4%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 5 yds to the Mary 37Similar
Q1 8:48
3RD & 5
OWN 37
-5
31.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa sacked by Jake Hansen for a loss of 5 yards to the Mary 32Similar
Q1 5:32
4TH & 10
OWN 32
+3
33.5%
Anthony Pecorella punt for 56 yds , Donny Navarro III returns for 3 yds to the Illin 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 5FG
10 plays · 77 yds · 4:4233% → 37%
Q1 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
33.0%
Chase Brown run for 3 yds to the Illin 18Similar
Q1 5:32
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+6
33.0%
Chase Brown run for 6 yds to the Illin 24Similar
Q1 5:32
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+13
32.8%
Chase Brown run for 13 yds to the Illin 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
33.3%
Joshua McCray run for no gain to the Illin 37Similar
Q1 5:32
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+52
33.3%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Joshua McCray for 40 yds to the ILLINOIS 23 for a 1ST down MARYLAND Penalty, Personal Foul (Lavonte Gater) to the Mary 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
34.3%
Jakari Norwood run for 2 yds to the Mary 9Similar
Q1 5:32
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+1
34.3%
Chase Brown run for 1 yd to the Mary 8Similar
Q1 5:32
3RD & 7
OPP 8
0
33.9%
Brandon Peters run for no gain to the Mary 8Similar
Q1 0:50
4TH & 7
OPP 8
+26
36.0%
James McCourt 26 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
Q1 0:50
4TH & 7
OPP 8
+26
36.8%
James McCourt 26 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 6FG
11 plays · 66 yds · 5:0763% → 60%
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
36.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Marcus Fleming for 6 yds to the Mary 14Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 16
OWN 14
+8
37.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 8 yds to the Mary 22Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+37
37.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 37 yds to the Illin 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
35.8%
Isaiah Jacobs run for 1 yd to the Illin 40Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+5
35.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Corey Dyches for 5 yds to the Illin 35Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+4
35.7%
Isaiah Jacobs run for 4 yds to the Illin 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+18
35.3%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 18 yds to the Illin 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
35.1%
Darryl Jones run for 3 yds to the Illin 16Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 16
0
35.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Dontay Demus Jr.Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 16
+2
36.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Dontay Demus Jr. for 2 yds to the Illin 14Similar
Q2 10:43
4TH & 11
OPP 14
+32
39.6%
Joseph Petrino 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 3 yds · 3:2239% → 41%
Q2 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
39.4%
Chase Brown run for 5 yds to the Illin 22Similar
Q2 10:37
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+4
39.5%
Chase Brown run for 4 yds to the Illin 26Similar
Q2 10:37
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+2
38.9%
Chase Brown run for 2 yds to the Illin 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
39.6%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Isaiah WilliamsSimilar
Q2 10:37
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+2
39.4%
Joshua McCray run for 2 yds to the Illin 30Similar
Q2 10:37
3RD & 8
OWN 30
-10
38.7%
Brandon Peters sacked by Sam Okuayinonu for a loss of 10 yards to the Illin 20Similar
Q2 7:15
4TH & 18
OWN 20
0
40.7%
Blake Hayes punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mary 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 8FG
10 plays · 53 yds · 3:3259% → 62%
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
41.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 5 yds to the Mary 38Similar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+13
40.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Corey Dyches for 13 yds to the Illin 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
39.6%
Peny Boone run for 11 yds to the Illin 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
39.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Dontay Demus Jr. for 8 yds to the Illin 30Similar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 2
OPP 30
+12
38.6%
Peny Boone run for 12 yds to the Illin 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
38.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Tayon Fleet-DavisSimilar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 10
OPP 18
-5
38.8%
PENALTY UMD False Start (Jones,Jeshaun) 5 yards from ILL18 to ILL23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 15
OPP 23
0
39.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Peny BooneSimilar
Q2 7:15
3RD & 15
OPP 23
+9
40.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 9 yds to the Illin 14Similar
Q2 3:43
4TH & 6
OPP 14
+32
37.8%
Joseph Petrino 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 9FG
12 plays · 73 yds · 2:1642% → 44%
Q2 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
41.7%
Brandon Peters run for 3 yds to the Illin 23Similar
Q2 3:43
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+4
41.6%
Chase Brown run for 4 yds to the Illin 27Similar
Q2 3:43
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+5
41.0%
Peters,Brandon pass incomplete to Washington,Casey broken up by Coley Jr.,Corey PENALTY UMD Offside (Rogers,Lawtez) 5 yards from ILL27 to ILL32, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+28
42.1%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 28 yds to the Mary 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
44.6%
Brandon Peters sacked by Durell Nchami for a loss of 5 yards to the Mary 45Similar
Q2 3:43
2ND & 15
OPP 45
0
43.1%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Donny Navarro IIISimilar
Q2 3:43
3RD & 15
OPP 45
+33
41.9%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Chase Brown for 33 yds to the Mary 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
45.2%
Peters,Brandon rush for 3 yards gain to the UMD09 (Mosley,Jordan) PENALTY UMD Offside (Spraggins,Gereme) 5 yards from UMD12 to UMD07. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:43
1ST & 5
OPP 7
0
45.2%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Daniel BarkerSimilar
Q2 3:43
2ND & 5
OPP 7
0
45.2%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Daniel BarkerSimilar
Q2 3:43
3RD & 5
OPP 7
0
44.2%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Daniel BarkerSimilar
Q2 1:27
4TH & 5
OPP 7
+25
43.6%
James McCourt 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 0:4761% → 59%
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
39.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Darryl Jones for 21 yds to the Mary 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
36.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Darryl Jones for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 6
50
-6
36.0%
Taulia Tagovailoa sacked by Jer'Zhan Newton for a loss of 6 yards to the Mary 44Similar
Q2 0:56
3RD & 12
OWN 44
0
39.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Chigoziem OkonkwoSimilar
Q2 0:40
4TH & 12
OWN 44
+7
41.4%
Anthony Pecorella punt for 42 yds , Donny Navarro III returns for 7 yds to the Illin 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 11END OF HALF
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:4044% → 46%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
43.9%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Casey Washington for 9 yds to the Illin 30Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 1
OWN 30
0
45.7%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Isaiah WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:40
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+9
44.4%
Chase Brown run for 9 yds to the Illin 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-9
45.6%
Brandon Peters sacked by Durell Nchami for a loss of 9 yards to the Illin 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 12TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:4960% → 75%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
39.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Darryl Jones for 5 yds to the Mary 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+35
39.0%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 35 yds to the Illin 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+12
36.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Tayon Fleet-Davis for 12 yds to the Illin 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+21
35.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 21 yds to the Illin 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
24.9%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 2 yds for a TD, (Joseph Petrino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5029% → 27%
Q3 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
29.2%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Isaiah WilliamsSimilar
Q3 13:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
29.1%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Donny Navarro III for 3 yds to the Illin 28Similar
Q3 13:11
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
28.3%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Chase BrownSimilar
Q3 12:21
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
27.3%
Blake Hayes punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jeshaun Jones at the Mary 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 14FUMBLE
6 plays · 66 yds · 0:0073% → 75%
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+13
27.2%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 13 yds to the Mary 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
25.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 11 yds to the Illin 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
25.3%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 6 yds to the Illin 43Similar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+11
25.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Brian Cobbs for 11 yds to the Illin 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+21
25.0%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Darryl Jones for 21 yds to the Illin 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
24.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 1 yd to the Illin 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 15TD
8 plays · 93 yds · 3:3729% → 52%
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+7
28.5%
Joshua McCray run for 7 yds to the Illin 14Similar
Q3 9:52
2ND & 3
OWN 14
+5
28.9%
Joshua McCray run for 5 yds to the Illin 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
28.9%
Joshua McCray run for 2 yds to the Illin 21Similar
Q3 9:52
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+19
28.9%
Brandon Peters run for 19 yds to the Illin 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
31.0%
Chase Brown run for 1 yd to the Illin 41Similar
Q3 9:52
2ND & 9
OWN 41
0
30.4%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Luke FordSimilar
Q3 9:52
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+21
29.3%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Chase Brown for 21 yds to the Mary 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
52.0%
Joshua McCray run for 38 yds for a TD, (James McCourt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 17INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q3 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
53.6%
MARYLAND Penalty, Illegal Block (6 Yards) to the Mary 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5755% → 52%
Q3 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+5
45.1%
Isaiah Jacobs run for 5 yds to the Mary 12Similar
Q3 5:38
2ND & 5
OWN 12
0
44.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Darryl JonesSimilar
Q3 5:38
3RD & 5
OWN 12
0
46.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Rakim JarrettSimilar
Q3 4:41
4TH & 5
OWN 12
+1
47.6%
Anthony Pecorella punt for 53 yds , Donny Navarro III returns for 1 yd to the Illin 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · -22 yds · 2:2549% → 46%
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
49.3%
Joshua McCray run for 2 yds to the Illin 38Similar
Q3 4:41
2ND & 8
OWN 38
-10
49.7%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Illin 32Similar
Q3 4:41
2ND & 14
OWN 32
+1
47.6%
Chase Brown run for 1 yd to the Illin 33Similar
Q3 4:41
3RD & 13
OWN 33
-5
46.1%
PENALTY ILL False Start (Brown,Chase) 5 yards from ILL33 to ILL28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:41
3RD & 18
OWN 28
-14
45.7%
Brown,Chase rush for 13 yards gain to the ILL41 (Cross,Nick; Mosley,Jordan) PENALTY ILL Personal Foul (Jeresaty,Blake) 14 yards from ILL28 to ILL14. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:41
3RD & 32
OWN 14
0
45.7%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Donny Navarro IIISimilar
Q3 2:16
4TH & 32
OWN 14
0
45.8%
Blake Hayes punt for 51 yds , Tarheeb Still returns for no gain to the Mary 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5856% → 55%
Q3 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
44.3%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 2 yds to the Mary 35Similar
Q3 2:16
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+2
44.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Tayon Fleet-Davis for 2 yds to the Mary 37Similar
Q3 2:16
3RD & 6
OWN 37
+5
44.8%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 5 yds to the Mary 42Similar
Q3 0:18
4TH & 1
OWN 42
0
45.2%
Colton Spangler punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Donny Navarro III at the Illin 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 21TD
2 plays · 46 yds · 0:0050% → 78%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+11
50.2%
Reggie Love III run for 11 yds to the Illin 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
78.2%
Reggie Love III run for 5 yds to the Illin 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 22PUNT
14 plays · 7 yds · 3:4113% → 10%
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
87.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Dontay Demus Jr. for 7 yds to the Mary 32Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
86.0%
Isaiah Jacobs run for 4 yds to the Mary 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
86.3%
Isaiah Jacobs run for 3 yds to the Mary 39Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+7
85.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Dontay Demus Jr. for 7 yds to the Mary 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
85.9%
Isaiah Jacobs run for 7 yds to the Illin 47Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+6
84.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 6 yds to the Illin 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
85.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Rakim JarrettSimilar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
85.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Rakim JarrettSimilar
Q4 11:15
3RD & 10
OPP 41
-15
86.9%
Tagovailoa,Taulia pass complete to Demus,Dontay for 41 yards to the ILL00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 11:15 PENALTY UMD Personal Foul (Jacobs,Isaiah) 15 yards from ILL41 to UMD44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:15
3RD & 25
OWN 44
-7
88.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa sacked by Owen Carney Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the Mary 37Similar
Q4 10:32
4TH & 32
OWN 37
0
90.1%
Anthony Pecorella punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Donny Navarro III at the Illin 18Similar
Q4 10:32
4TH & 32
OWN 37
0
90.1%
Anthony Pecorella punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Donny Navarro III at the Illin 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 23PUNT
11 plays · 32 yds · 5:4293% → 96%
Q4 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
93.0%
Reggie Love III run for no gain to the Illin 23Similar
Q4 10:32
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+2
92.9%
Reggie Love III run for 2 yds to the Illin 25Similar
Q4 10:32
3RD & 8
OWN 25
+16
92.8%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Donny Navarro III for 16 yds to the Illin 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
93.7%
Jakari Norwood run for 2 yds to the Illin 39Similar
Q4 10:32
2ND & 12
OWN 39
+2
93.5%
Jakari Norwood run for 2 yds to the Illin 41Similar
Q4 10:32
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+10
93.4%
Peters,Brandon pass incomplete to Washington,Casey PENALTY UMD Holding (Coley Jr.,Corey) 10 yards from ILL41 to UMD49, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
93.7%
Reggie Love III run for 6 yds to the Mary 43Similar
Q4 10:32
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+2
93.8%
Reggie Love III run for 2 yds to the Mary 41Similar
Q4 10:32
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+1
93.5%
Reggie Love III run for 1 yd to the Mary 40Similar
Q4 10:32
4TH & 1
OPP 40
-5
92.8%
PENALTY ILL Delay Of Game 5 yards from UMD40 to UMD45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:50
4TH & 6
OPP 45
0
96.3%
Blake Hayes punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Tarheeb Still at the Mary 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 24TD
8 plays · 86 yds · 2:377% → 7%
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+9
93.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Tayon Fleet-Davis for 9 yds to the Mary 23Similar
Q4 4:50
2ND & 1
OWN 23
+8
92.4%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 8 yds to the Mary 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
92.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Darryl Jones for 15 yds to the Mary 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
92.2%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 3 yds to the Mary 49Similar
Q4 4:50
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+17
92.0%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Dontay Demus Jr. for 17 yds to the Illin 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
91.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Chigoziem OkonkwoSimilar
Q4 4:50
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+24
91.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 24 yds to the Illin 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
93.5%
Tayon Fleet-Davis 10 Yd pass from Taulia Tagovailoa (Joseph Petrino Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 25PUNT
10 plays · -18 yds · 1:2697% → 99%
Q4 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.4%
Reggie Love III run for no gain to the Illin 25Similar
Q4 2:13
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
97.4%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Donny Navarro III for 8 yds to the Illin 33Similar
Q4 2:13
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
97.6%
Reggie Love III run for 3 yds to the Illin 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-11
97.5%
Brandon Peters sacked by Greg Rose for a loss of 11 yards to the Illin 25Similar
Q4 1:14
2ND & 21
OWN 25
-7
98.9%
Brandon Peters sacked by Greg Rose for a loss of 7 yards to the Illin 18Similar
Q4 1:07
3RD & 28
OWN 18
0
99.0%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Brandon Peters) to the Illin 7Similar
Q4 0:47
4TH & 39
OWN 7
0
98.9%
Blake Hayes punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Illin 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 26FG
4 plays · 32 yds · 0:473% → 3%
Q4 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+26
97.0%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 26 yds to the Illin 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
96.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Tayon Fleet-Davis for 6 yds to the Illin 14Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+32
96.7%
Joseph Petrino 32 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-96.7
TD · Q4 15:00
Reggie Love III run for 5 yds to the Illin 37
+28.1
TD · Q3 6:15
Joshua McCray run for 38 yds for a TD, (James McCourt KICK)
+22.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com