Marshall

Profile vs. FBS, 2022

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.0319th
  Defense−0.1499th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense41.6%45th
  Defense31.0%99th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.1414th
  Defense+1.3029th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.0435th
  Defense−0.1398th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.1015th
  Defense−0.0398th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense49.1%63rd
  Defense38.2%98th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense26.2%13th
  Defense19.4%99th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.9322nd
  Defense2.5994th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense20.3%13th
  Defense25.5%98th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense15.2%62nd
  Defense18.9%85th

Percentiles among the 131 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2022

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Marshall allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   NORF
2. W
   ND
3. L
   BGSU
4. L
   TROY
5. W
   GWEB
6. L
   UL
7. W
   JMU
8. L
   CCU
9. W
   ODU
10. W
    APP
11. W
    GASO
12. W
    GAST
13. W
    CONN

Bars above the line: better than expected for Marshall.

Players, 2022

1. Khalan LabornRB207 plays · +0.148 pts/play · 21st of 384 RBs
   0.57WAR0.40 to 0.76
2. Cam FancherQB299 plays · +0.077 pts/play · 132nd of 234 QBs
   0.43WAR−0.11 to 0.96
3. Henry ColombiQB103 plays · +0.110 pts/play · 174th of 234 QBs
   0.21WAR0.01 to 0.43
4. Rasheen AliRB44 plays · +0.211 pts/play · 178th of 384 RBs
   0.17WAR0.13 to 0.22
5. Corey GammageWR31 plays · +0.092 pts/play · 326th of 455 WRs
   0.05WAR0.00 to 0.11
6. Devin MillerTE11 plays · +0.196 pts/play · 120th of 214 TEs
   0.04WAR0.02 to 0.06
7. Rece VerhoffPK13 plays · +0.105 pts/play · 100th of 110 kickers
   0.03WAR−0.01 to 0.06
8. Shadeed AhmedWR14 plays · +0.068 pts/play · 406th of 455 WRs
   0.02WAR0.00 to 0.04

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Marshall's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2022

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  45545595th of 129Roster talent: 455, 95th of 129 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  14714784th of 129Recruiting: 147, 84th of 129 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  51%51%80th of 128Returning production: 51%, 80th of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +3.0+3.059th of 129SP+ rating: +3.0, 59th of 129 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 129 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2022

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Marshall's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 6 clear-cut ones account for 0.16 of the 0.27 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at NDQ3 3:54 4th & 2 at ND 3, up 2Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−3.6 pts
2. vs APPQ3 2:55 4th & 1 at MRSH 13, up 6Punted; the numbers favored going for it−3.1 pts
3. at ODUQ3 8:39 4th & 1 at ODU 12, up 6Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−2.8 pts
4. at GASOQ2 4:39 4th & 1 at GASO 44, up 17Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.6 pts
5. vs APPQ2 11:14 4th & 18 at MRSH 12, up 7Went for it; the numbers favored punting−2.2 pts
6. at GASOQ3 0:14 4th & 2 at midfield, up 13Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.1 pts
7. at ODUQ4 10:50 4th & 4 at ODU 5, up 9Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−1.0 pts
8. vs APPQ1 0:03 4th & 1 at MRSH 12, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2022

42nd of 131 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Marshall's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   NORF
2. W

   ND
3. L

   BGSU
4. L

   TROY
5. W

   GWEB
6. L

   UL
7. W

   JMU
8. L

   CCU
9. W

   ODU
10. W

    APP
11. W

    GASO
12. W

    GAST
13. W

    CONN

What moved it, 2022

Every game starts at Marshall's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+0.39
• Clock+0.06
• Timeouts−0.03
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.73

Game by game

• NORFW 55-3 vs NORF99% → 100%Before kickoff +49 · On the field +1: Scoreboard +2
• NDW 26-21 at ND10% → 97%Before kickoff −40 · On the field +87: Scoreboard +57, Clock +3
• BGSUL 31-34 at BGSU86% → 8%Before kickoff +36 · On the field −79: Scoreboard −36, Clock +4
• TROYL 7-16 at TROY64% → 3%Before kickoff +14 · On the field −61: Scoreboard −43, Timeouts −2
• GWEBW 28-7 vs GWEB96% → 99%Before kickoff +46 · On the field +3: Scoreboard +8
• ULL 13-23 vs UL80% → 4%Before kickoff +30 · On the field −76: Scoreboard −55, Clock −4
• JMUW 26-12 at JMU32% → 8%Before kickoff −18 · On the field −24: Scoreboard −27, Clock −1
• CCUL 13-24 vs CCU57% → 5%Before kickoff +7 · On the field −52: Scoreboard −52, Clock −2
• ODUW 12-0 at ODU59% → 98%Before kickoff +9 · On the field +39: Scoreboard +46, Clock +2
• APPW 28-21 vs APP45% → 98%Before kickoff −5 · On the field +54: Scoreboard +44
• GASOW 23-10 at GASO67% → 98%Before kickoff +17 · On the field +31: Scoreboard +40, Clock +2
• GASTW 28-23 vs GAST67% → 97%Before kickoff +17 · On the field +30: Scoreboard +28, Timeouts +2
• CONNW 28-14 at CONN82% → 98%Before kickoff +32 · On the field +16: Scoreboard +27, Clock +2

Points of win probability, from Marshall's side.

Closest call

MRSH 26-12 JMU (2022) - Marshall dropped to a 2.6% win probability before pulling it out.