Marshall

Profile vs. FBS, 2014

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.3599th
  Defense+0.0587th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense48.1%86th
  Defense40.1%68th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.3594th
  Defense+1.0395th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.3398th
  Defense+0.0178th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.4191st
  Defense+0.1282nd
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense52.0%83rd
  Defense46.7%54th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense39.3%89th
  Defense26.4%94th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.7099th
  Defense2.8551st
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense13.1%98th
  Defense18.3%35th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense2.0%52nd
  Defense2.1%58th

Percentiles among the 128 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2014

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Marshall allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   M-OH
2. W
   URI
3. W
   OHIO
4. W
   AKR
5. W
   ODU
6. W
   MTSU
7. W
   FIU
8. W
   FAU
9. W
   USM
10. W
    RICE
11. W
    UAB
12. L
    WKU
13. W
    LT
14. W
    NIU

Bars above the line: better than expected for Marshall.

Players, 2014

1. Rakeem CatoQB381 plays · +0.218 pts/play · 55th of 199 QBs
   1.56WAR0.89 to 2.22
2. Devon JohnsonRB149 plays · +0.201 pts/play · 13th of 350 RBs
   0.56WAR0.38 to 0.71
3. Tommy ShulerWR89 plays · +0.109 pts/play · 84th of 469 WRs
   0.18WAR0.06 to 0.31
4. Tyler WilliamsP33 plays · +0.184 pts/play · 33rd of 94 punters
   0.11WAR0.06 to 0.17
5. Justin HaigPK14 plays · +0.408 pts/play · 58th of 114 kickers
   0.11WAR0.07 to 0.14
6. Steward ButlerRB55 plays · +0.102 pts/play · 208th of 350 RBs
   0.11WAR0.07 to 0.14
7. Remi WatsonRB54 plays · +0.095 pts/play · 223rd of 350 RBs
   0.10WAR0.05 to 0.14
8. Davonte AllenWR27 plays · +0.130 pts/play · 292nd of 469 WRs
   0.07WAR0.03 to 0.11

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Marshall's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2014

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Marshall's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 6 clear-cut ones account for 0.20 of the 0.24 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs WKUQ4 5:32 4th & 1 at WKU 1, down 10Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−7.0 pts
2. vs LTQ4 0:00 4th & 15 at LT 35, up 3Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−6.5 pts
3. at UABQ4 11:14 4th & 16 at UAB 35, down 1Punted; the numbers favored a field goal−3.0 pts
4. vs FAUQ3 13:13 4th & 1 at MRSH 33, down 2Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.5 pts
5. at NIUQ3 12:10 4th & 3 at NIU 42, up 11Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.1 pts
6. vs FAUQ4 8:55 4th & 1 at MRSH 36, up 12Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.0 pts
7. vs FAUQ3 8:10 4th & 2 at MRSH 17, down 2Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
8. at FIUQ3 9:05 4th & 2 at FIU 18, up 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2014

50th of 128 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Marshall's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   M-OH
2. W

   URI
3. W

   OHIO
4. W

   AKR
5. W

   ODU
6. W

   MTSU
7. W

   FIU
8. W

   FAU
9. W

   USM
10. W

    RICE
11. W

    UAB
12. L

    WKU
13. W

    LT
14. W

    NIU

What moved it, 2014

Every game starts at Marshall's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+1.37
• Possession & field position−0.05
• Clock+0.15
• Timeouts−0.17
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−1.17

Game by game

• M-OHW 42-27 at M-OH94% → 99%Before kickoff +44 · On the field +5: Scoreboard +13, Clock +1
• URIW 48-7 vs URI99% → 100%Before kickoff +49 · On the field +1: Scoreboard +2
• OHIOW 44-14 vs OHIO92% → 100%Before kickoff +42 · On the field +8: Scoreboard +11
• AKRW 48-17 at AKR82% → 100%Before kickoff +32 · On the field +18: Scoreboard +24, Clock +1
• ODUW 56-14 at ODU88% → 100%Before kickoff +38 · On the field +12: Scoreboard +17
• MTSUW 49-24 vs MTSU93% → 100%Before kickoff +43 · On the field +7: Scoreboard +11, Timeouts −1
• FIUW 45-13 at FIU91% → 100%Before kickoff +41 · On the field +8: Scoreboard +14
• FAUW 35-16 vs FAU96% → 99%Before kickoff +46 · On the field +4: Scoreboard +8
• USMW 63-17 at USM95% → 92%Before kickoff +45 · On the field −3: Scoreboard −1
• RICEW 41-14 vs RICE92% → 100%Before kickoff +42 · On the field +8: Scoreboard +11
• UABW 23-18 at UAB92% → 96%Before kickoff +42 · On the field +3: Scoreboard +19, Clock +1
• WKUL 66-67 vs WKU93% → 9%Before kickoff +43 · On the field −84: Scoreboard −39, Timeouts −16
• LTW 26-23 vs LT86% → 93%Before kickoff +36 · On the field +7: Scoreboard +21, Possession & field position −2
• NIUW 52-23 at NIU80% → 100%Before kickoff +30 · On the field +19: Scoreboard +25, Clock +1

Points of win probability, from Marshall's side.

Closest call

MRSH 26-12 JMU (2022) - Marshall dropped to a 2.6% win probability before pulling it out.