Try the model
MTSU

Middle Tennessee 24 at Marshall 49

MRSH
2014 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2014 · Joan C. Edwards Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MRSH
modelMRSH aheadMTSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMRSH scoreMTSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 10:05 · Tyler Williams punt for 54 yds , Ed'Marques Batties returns for 7 yds to the MTnSt 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+43.5+21.80−21.8−43.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 23Pregame prior+40.9Home team on offense+0.9Score differential+0.2Garbage-time factor+0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Blowout margin−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:28: Rakeem Cato pass complete to Craig Wilkins for 26 yds for a TD, (Justin Haig KICK) — MRSH win probability +2.2 pts (now 93%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:47: Rakeem Cato pass complete to Deon-Tay McManus for 29 yds for a TD, (Justin Haig KICK) — MRSH win probability +2.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:25: Austin Grammer pass complete to Shane Tucker for 4 yds for a TD, (Cody Clark KICK) — MTSU win probability +2.4 pts (now 11%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 13:47: Rakeem Cato run for 4 yds for a TD, (Justin Haig KICK) — MRSH win probability +4.3 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:14: Devon Johnson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Justin Haig KICK) — MRSH win probability +2.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MRSH made the numbers' call on 7 of 8MTSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00MTSU 4th & 11 at MTSU 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.5%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:34MTSU 4th & 2 at MTSU 43, down 7
    Close callPunted · 9.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:05MRSH 4th & 12 at MRSH 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.6%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:48MTSU 4th & 9 at MTSU 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.3%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:45MRSH 4th & 1 at MTSU 1, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.1%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    89.8%−0.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    89.0%−1.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00MRSH 4th & 1 at MTSU 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    88.7%−0.4
    60% to make
    Punt
    87.7%−1.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:28MTSU 4th & 10 at MRSH 41, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.0%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    8.8%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    9.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:02MRSH 4th & 7 at MRSH 29, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.1%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:49MTSU 4th & 12 at MRSH 17, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.3%−0.5
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.8%
    80% to make
    Punt
    6.6%−2.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:36MTSU 4th & 11 at MTSU 11, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.5%−1.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:47MTSU 4th & 19 at MTSU 37, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.2%−1.3
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:11MRSH 4th & 6 at MTSU 8, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.7%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.8%
    90% to make
    Punt
    93.0%−2.8
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:11MTSU 4th & 6 at MRSH 31, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    5.1%−0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    4.3%−0.8
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:15MRSH 4th & 9 at MTSU 34, up 18
    Close callWent for it · 96.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.0%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    96.0%
    47% to make
    Punt
    95.7%−0.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:55MTSU 4th & 1 at MTSU 34, down 32
    Close callPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:11MRSH 4th & 4 at MTSU 28, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−<0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 13:11MRSH 4th & 3 at MTSU 10, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    49% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−<0.1
    88% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.5
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:51MTSU 4th & 2 at MRSH 5, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MRSH made the numbers' call on 7 of 7MTSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 11:40MRSH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:45MRSH Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:23MTSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 14:28MRSH Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:47MRSH Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:25MTSU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 13:47MRSH Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 3:14MRSH Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 14:55MRSH Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 4:29MTSU Touchdown, down 26 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.3%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MTSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
93.1%
Jordan Parker run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 20Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 20
-6
93.1%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Jeremiah Bryson for a loss of 6 yards to the MTnSt 14Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 14
0
93.1%
Austin Grammer pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 14
0
93.1%
Zachary Lopez punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 2TD
5 plays · 55 yds · 1:5293% → 93%
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+37
92.8%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Angelo Jean-Louis for 37 yds to the MTnSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
92.8%
Devon Johnson run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 13Similar
Q1 13:32
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+5
92.8%
Devon Johnson run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
92.8%
Rakeem Cato sacked by Shubert Bastien for a loss of 5 yards to the MTnSt 13Similar
Q1 11:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+13
92.7%
Devon Johnson run for 13 yds for a TD, (Justin Haig KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 1:067% → 8%
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
92.6%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Ed'Marques Batties for 10 yds to the MTnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
92.5%
Jordan Parker run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 38Similar
Q1 11:40
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+3
92.5%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Jeremiah Bryson for 3 yds to the MTnSt 41Similar
Q1 10:34
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+2
92.3%
Austin Grammer run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 43Similar
Q1 10:34
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
92.4%
Zachary Lopez punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
92.3%
Rakeem Cato run for 8 yds to the Marsh 25Similar
Q1 10:05
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+15
92.4%
CATO, Rakeem pass incomplete to JEAN-LOUIS, A. (BURKE, Khari), PENALTY MT pass interference (BURKE, Khari) 15 yards to the MARSHALL40, 1ST DOWN MARSHALL, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
92.4%
Remi Watson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Marsh 38Similar
Q1 10:05
2ND & 12
OWN 38
0
92.4%
Rakeem Cato pass incomplete to Angelo Jean-LouisSimilar
Q1 10:05
3RD & 12
OWN 38
0
92.3%
Rakeem Cato pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 10:05
4TH & 12
OWN 38
+7
92.2%
Tyler Williams punt for 54 yds , Ed'Marques Batties returns for 7 yds to the MTnSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
92.1%
Reggie Whatley run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 16Similar
Q1 8:48
2ND & 9
OWN 16
0
92.1%
Austin Grammer pass incomplete to Chris PerkinsSimilar
Q1 8:48
3RD & 9
OWN 16
0
92.2%
Austin Grammer pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 8:48
4TH & 9
OWN 16
0
92.2%
Zachary Lopez punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 6TD
7 plays · 60 yds · 2:1992% → 93%
Q1 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+30
92.2%
Devon Johnson run for 30 yds to the MTnSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
92.3%
Devon Johnson run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 25Similar
Q1 8:04
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+15
92.3%
CATO, Rakeem pass incomplete to MCMANUS, D. (SINGLETARY, J.), PENALTY MT pass interference (SINGLETARY, J.) 15 yards to the MT10, 1ST DOWN MARSHALL, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
92.3%
Rakeem Cato run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 7Similar
Q1 8:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
92.3%
Devon Johnson run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 1Similar
Q1 8:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
92.2%
Rakeem Cato run for no gain to the MTnSt 1Similar
Q1 5:45
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
92.9%
Devon Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Justin Haig KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 7TD
9 plays · 63 yds · 3:228% → 10%
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+34
92.5%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Ed'Marques Batties for 34 yds to the Marsh 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
92.2%
Jordan Parker run for 3 yds to the Marsh 26Similar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 7
OPP 26
-2
92.2%
Jordan Parker run for a loss of 2 yards to the Marsh 28Similar
Q1 5:45
3RD & 9
OPP 28
+18
92.3%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Devin Clarke for 18 yds to the Marsh 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
92.2%
Shane Tucker run for 4 yds to the Marsh 6Similar
Q1 5:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
92.2%
Shane Tucker run for 5 yds to the Marsh 1Similar
Q1 5:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
92.2%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the Marsh 6Similar
Q1 2:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
90.3%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Jordan Parker for 6 yds for a TD, (Cody Clark KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 8TD
10 plays · 78 yds · 2:5591% → 93%
Q1 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-11
90.9%
CATO, Rakeem pass incomplete to WILKINS, Craig, PENALTY MARSHALL face mask (JEAN-LOUIS, A.) 11 yards to the MARSHALL11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:23
1ST & 21
OWN 11
+4
90.9%
Remi Watson run for 4 yds to the Marsh 15Similar
Q1 2:23
2ND & 17
OWN 15
+9
90.8%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Tommy Shuler for 9 yds to the Marsh 24Similar
Q1 2:23
3RD & 8
OWN 24
+39
90.7%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Deon-Tay McManus for 39 yds to the MTnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
91.4%
Remi Watson run for no gain to the MTnSt 37Similar
Q1 2:23
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+9
91.3%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Craig Wilkins for 9 yds to the MTnSt 28Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 28
0
90.8%
Rakeem Cato pass incomplete to Craig WilkinsSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 28
+2
90.6%
Remi Watson run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:28
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
92.8%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Craig Wilkins for 26 yds for a TD, (Justin Haig KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 9PUNT
13 plays · 38 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-2
91.9%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Devin Clarke for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 19Similar
Q2 14:28
2ND & 12
OWN 19
+12
92.0%
Jordan Parker run for 12 yds to the MTnSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
91.8%
Jordan Parker run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 38Similar
Q2 14:28
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+8
91.6%
Jordan Parker run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
91.7%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Terry Pettis for 8 yds to the Marsh 46Similar
Q2 14:28
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+5
91.4%
Reggie Whatley run for 5 yds to the Marsh 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:28
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
91.5%
Reggie Whatley run for 6 yds to the Marsh 35Similar
Q2 14:28
2ND & 4
OPP 35
-3
91.2%
Reggie Whatley run for 7 yds to the Marsh 28 MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Offensive holding (N/A) to the Marsh 38Similar
Q2 14:28
2ND & 7
OPP 38
-3
91.5%
Austin Grammer run for 12 yds to the Marsh 26 MIDDLE TENN Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Ed'Marques Batties) to the Marsh 41Similar
Q2 14:28
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
91.5%
Austin Grammer pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 14:28
3RD & 10
OPP 41
0
91.7%
Austin Grammer pass incomplete to Terry PettisSimilar
Q2 14:28
4TH & 10
OPP 41
0
91.8%
Zachary Lopez punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Tommy Shuler at the Marsh 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q2 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+15
92.2%
Devon Johnson run for 15 yds to the Marsh 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
92.2%
Devon Johnson run for 2 yds to the Marsh 28Similar
Q2 10:02
2ND & 8
OWN 28
-2
92.2%
Rakeem Cato run for a loss of 2 yards to the Marsh 29 Rakeem Cato fumbled, recovered by Marsh Rakeem CatoSimilar
Q2 10:02
3RD & 7
OWN 29
0
92.0%
Rakeem Cato pass incomplete to Tommy ShulerSimilar
Q2 10:02
4TH & 7
OWN 29
+13
91.8%
Tyler Williams punt for 35 yds , Ed'Marques Batties returns for 13 yds to the MTnSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 11FG
6 plays · 34 yds · 1:299% → 10%
Q2 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+18
91.1%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Jeremiah Bryson for 18 yds to the Marsh 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+18
90.7%
Jeremiah Bryson run for 3 yds to the Marsh 30 for a 1ST down MARSHALL Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Jarquez Samuel) to the Marsh 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-2
90.6%
Jeremiah Bryson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Marsh 17Similar
Q2 8:18
2ND & 12
OPP 17
0
90.7%
Austin Grammer pass incomplete to Devin ClarkeSimilar
Q2 8:18
3RD & 12
OPP 17
0
91.1%
Austin Grammer pass incomplete to Terry PettisSimilar
Q2 6:49
4TH & 12
OPP 17
+34
90.3%
Cody Clark 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 12TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 3:0291% → 94%
Q2 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
90.7%
Remi Watson run for 6 yds to the Marsh 41Similar
Q2 6:49
2ND & 4
OWN 41
0
91.1%
Remi Watson run for no gain to the Marsh 41Similar
Q2 6:49
3RD & 4
OWN 41
-15
90.8%
MARSHALL Penalty, personal foul (N/A) to the Marsh 26Similar
Q2 6:49
3RD & 19
OWN 26
+25
90.2%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Tommy Shuler for 25 yds to the MTnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
91.2%
Rakeem Cato pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 6:49
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+14
91.1%
Remi Watson run for 14 yds to the MTnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
91.2%
Remi Watson run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q2 6:49
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+1
91.2%
Remi Watson run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 29Similar
Q2 3:47
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+29
93.5%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Deon-Tay McManus for 29 yds for a TD, (Justin Haig KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · -28 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q2 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 0
-15
92.8%
CATO, Rakeem sacked for loss of 8 yards to the MT45 (BARBER, T.T.;HUFF, Shaquille), PENALTY MARSHALL holding (VAN HORN, Clint) 10 yards to the MT47, PENALTY MARSHALL unsportsmanlike conduct (CATO, Rakeem) 15 yards to the MARSHALL38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:41
1ST & 35
OWN 38
0
93.7%
Rakeem Cato pass incomplete to Craig WilkinsSimilar
Q2 3:41
2ND & 35
OWN 38
-5
93.6%
MARSHALL Penalty, false start (N/A) to the Marsh 33Similar
Q2 3:41
2ND & 40
OWN 33
+2
93.4%
Devon Johnson run for 2 yds to the Marsh 35Similar
Q2 3:41
3RD & 38
OWN 35
0
93.2%
Rakeem Cato pass incomplete to Devon JohnsonSimilar
Q2 3:41
4TH & 38
OWN 35
0
92.9%
Tyler Williams punt for 53 yds, downed at the MTnSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:476% → 6%
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
93.7%
Jordan Parker run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 16Similar
Q2 2:23
2ND & 6
OWN 16
-2
93.8%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Christian Collis for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 14Similar
Q2 1:43
3RD & 8
OWN 14
-3
93.8%
Austin Grammer run for a loss of 3 yards to the MTnSt 11Similar
Q2 1:36
4TH & 11
OWN 11
0
93.9%
Zachary Lopez punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Tommy Shuler at the Marsh 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 16FUMBLE
3 plays · -8 yds · 0:0095% → 94%
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
94.6%
Rakeem Cato pass incomplete to Craig WilkinsSimilar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
94.5%
Rakeem Cato pass incomplete to Deon-Tay McManusSimilar
Q2 1:29
3RD & 10
OWN 49
-6
94.3%
Rakeem Cato sacked by Steve Rhodes for a loss of 6 yards to the Marsh 41 Rakeem Cato fumbled, recovered by MTnSt Cavellis Luckett , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 17TD
6 plays · 41 yds · 0:468% → 11%
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
92.4%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Ed'Marques Batties for 6 yds to the Marsh 35Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+19
91.9%
Austin Grammer run for 4 yds to the Marsh 31 for a 1ST down MARSHALL Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Neville Hewitt) to the Marsh 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
91.9%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Jeremiah Bryson for 3 yds to the Marsh 13Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+9
91.9%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Shane Tucker for 9 yds to the Marsh 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
88.8%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Shane Tucker for 4 yds for a TD, (Cody Clark KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 18END OF HALF
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
91.9%
Devon Johnson run for 5 yds to the Marsh 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 19TD
6 plays · 59 yds · 1:1391% → 96%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
91.3%
Rakeem Cato pass incomplete to Tommy Shuler, broken up by Trey WaffordSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+24
91.1%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Craig Wilkins for 24 yds to the MTnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+13
91.4%
Devon Johnson run for 13 yds to the MTnSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+18
91.4%
Devon Johnson run for 18 yds to the MTnSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
95.7%
Rakeem Cato run for 4 yds for a TD, (Justin Haig KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q3 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+16
94.1%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Shane Tucker for 16 yds to the MTnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
93.9%
Shane Tucker run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 47Similar
Q3 13:47
2ND & 9
OWN 47
-10
94.0%
Austin Grammer sacked by Jermaine Holmes for a loss of 10 yards to the MTnSt 37Similar
Q3 13:47
3RD & 19
OWN 37
0
94.5%
Austin Grammer pass incomplete to Shane TuckerSimilar
Q3 13:47
4TH & 19
OWN 37
+4
94.5%
Zachary Lopez punt for 37 yds , Tommy Shuler returns for 4 yds to the Marsh 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 21MISSED FG
13 plays · 62 yds · 3:4596% → 96%
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
96.0%
Remi Watson run for 11 yds to the Marsh 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
96.2%
Remi Watson run for 4 yds to the Marsh 45Similar
Q3 11:56
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
96.2%
Rakeem Cato pass incomplete to Deon-Tay McManus, broken up by Jared SingletarySimilar
Q3 11:56
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+12
96.1%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Craig Wilkins for 12 yds to the MTnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
96.3%
Remi Watson run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 38Similar
Q3 11:56
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+15
96.2%
CATO, Rakeem pass incomplete to SHULER, Tommy, QB hurry by WAFFORD, Trey, PENALTY MT pass interference (BYARD, Kevin) 15 yards to the MT23, 1ST DOWN MARSHALL, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
96.2%
Remi Watson run for no gain to the MTnSt 23Similar
Q3 11:56
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+11
96.2%
CATO, Rakeem pass incomplete, QB hurry by ANTOINE, A., PENALTY MT face mask (ANTOINE, A.) 11 yards to the MT12, 1ST DOWN MARSHALL, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
96.2%
Remi Watson run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 9Similar
Q3 11:56
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+1
96.2%
Devon Johnson run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 8Similar
Q3 8:22
3RD & 6
OPP 8
0
96.1%
Rakeem Cato pass incomplete to Deon-Tay McManusSimilar
Q3 8:11
4TH & 6
OPP 8
+25
95.8%
Justin Haig 25 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 22DOWNS
6 plays · 46 yds · 0:005% → 6%
Q3 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
94.9%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Jordan Parker for 5 yds to the MTnSt 25Similar
Q3 8:11
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+40
94.5%
Jordan Parker run for 40 yds to the Marsh 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
93.8%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Devin Clarke for 4 yds to the Marsh 31Similar
Q3 8:11
2ND & 6
OPP 31
0
93.5%
Jordan Parker run for no gain to the Marsh 31Similar
Q3 8:11
3RD & 6
OPP 31
0
94.1%
Austin Grammer pass incomplete to Christian Collis, broken up by Tiquan LangSimilar
Q3 8:11
4TH & 6
OPP 31
-3
94.3%
Austin Grammer run for a loss of 3 yards to the Marsh 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 23TD
8 plays · 66 yds · 3:0196% → 99%
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+31
96.0%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Tommy Shuler for 31 yds to the MTnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
96.3%
Devon Johnson run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 5
OPP 30
-4
96.3%
Devon Johnson run for a loss of 4 yards to the MTnSt 34Similar
Q3 6:15
3RD & 9
OPP 34
0
96.2%
Rakeem Cato pass incomplete to Deon-Tay McManusSimilar
Q3 6:15
4TH & 9
OPP 34
+22
95.8%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Eric Frohnapfel for 22 yds to the MTnSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+10
96.3%
Devon Johnson run for 10 yds to the MTnSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
96.3%
Devon Johnson run for no gain to the MTnSt 2Similar
Q3 3:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.1%
Devon Johnson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Justin Haig KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 24INT
8 plays · 35 yds · 2:082% → 2%
Q3 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
97.8%
Jordan Parker run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 2Similar
Q3 3:14
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+3
97.8%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Terry Pettis for 3 yds to the MTnSt 5Similar
Q3 3:14
3RD & 6
OWN 5
+27
97.9%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Terry Pettis for 27 yds to the MTnSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
97.6%
Austin Grammer pass incomplete to Shane TuckerSimilar
Q3 3:14
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+4
97.6%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Christian Collis for 4 yds to the MTnSt 36Similar
Q3 1:06
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+32
97.9%
Austin Grammer pass intercepted A.J. Leggett return for 32 yds to the MTnSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 25TD
3 plays · 14 yds · 0:56100% → 100%
Q3 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
99.5%
Remi Watson run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 12Similar
Q3 0:51
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+6
99.5%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Eric Frohnapfel for 6 yds to the MTnSt 6Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 2
OPP 6
+6
99.8%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Craig Wilkins for 6 yds for a TD, (Justin Haig KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Austin Grammer run for no gain to the MTnSt 25Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.8%
Shane Tucker run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 32Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
99.8%
Shane Tucker run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 34Similar
Q4 14:55
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
99.8%
Zachary Lopez punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Tommy Shuler at the Marsh 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 27INT
13 plays · 58 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
99.9%
Rakeem Cato run for 2 yds to the Marsh 34Similar
Q4 13:11
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+2
99.9%
Remi Watson run for 2 yds to the Marsh 36Similar
Q4 13:11
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+30
99.9%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Justin Hunt for 30 yds to the MTnSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-15
99.9%
MARSHALL Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Chris Jasperse) to the MTnSt 49Similar
Q4 13:11
1ST & 25
OPP 49
+10
99.8%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Justin Hunt for 10 yds to the MTnSt 39Similar
Q4 13:11
2ND & 15
OPP 39
+11
99.9%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Ryan Yurachek for 11 yds to the MTnSt 28Similar
Q4 13:11
3RD & 4
OWN 0
0
99.9%
CATO, Rakeem pass incomplete to WILKINS, Craig, PENALTY MT pass interference off-setting, PENALTY MARSHALL ineligible downfield on pass off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:11
3RD & 4
OPP 28
0
99.9%
Rakeem Cato pass incomplete to Tommy Shuler, broken up by D.J. SandersSimilar
Q4 13:11
4TH & 4
OPP 28
+11
99.9%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Ryan Yurachek for 11 yds to the MTnSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
99.9%
Steward Butler run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 13Similar
Q4 13:11
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+3
99.9%
Steward Butler run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 10Similar
Q4 13:11
3RD & 3
OPP 10
0
99.9%
Rakeem Cato pass incomplete to Justin Hunt, broken up by Michael MinterSimilar
Q4 13:11
4TH & 3
OPP 10
0
99.9%
Rakeem Cato pass intercepted, touchback. D.J. Sanders return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 28TD
14 plays · 80 yds · 4:220% → 1%
Q4 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
99.9%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Tyler Barron for 14 yds to the MTnSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
99.9%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Shannon Smith for 5 yds to the MTnSt 39Similar
Q4 8:51
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+11
99.9%
Jeremiah Bryson run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:51
1ST & 10
50
+7
99.9%
Jeremiah Bryson run for 7 yds to the Marsh 43Similar
Q4 8:51
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+5
99.9%
Jeremiah Bryson run for 5 yds to the Marsh 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
99.9%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Terry Pettis for 9 yds to the Marsh 29Similar
Q4 8:51
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+2
99.9%
Jordan Parker run for 2 yds to the Marsh 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
99.9%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Shannon Smith for no gain to the Marsh 27Similar
Q4 8:51
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+14
99.9%
Jordan Parker run for 14 yds to the Marsh 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
99.9%
Jordan Parker run for 3 yds to the Marsh 10Similar
Q4 8:51
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+5
99.9%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Jeremiah Bryson for 5 yds to the Marsh 5Similar
Q4 8:51
3RD & 2
OPP 5
0
99.9%
Austin Grammer pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q4 8:51
4TH & 2
OPP 5
+4
99.8%
Jeremiah Bryson run for 4 yds to the Marsh 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.2%
Jeremiah Bryson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cody Clark KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 29END OF GAME
8 plays · 49 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+10
99.8%
Steward Butler run for 10 yds to the Marsh 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
99.8%
Steward Butler run for 5 yds to the Marsh 41Similar
Q4 4:29
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+14
99.8%
Steward Butler run for 14 yds to the MTnSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
99.8%
Steward Butler run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 39Similar
Q4 4:29
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+3
99.8%
Gunnar Holcombe run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 36Similar
Q4 4:29
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+4
99.8%
Steward Butler run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
99.8%
Steward Butler run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 13:47
Rakeem Cato run for 4 yds for a TD, (Justin Haig KICK)
+4.3
TD · Q3 3:14
Devon Johnson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Justin Haig KICK)
+2.9
TD · Q2 0:25
Austin Grammer pass complete to Shane Tucker for 4 yds for a TD, (Cody Clark KICK)
-2.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com