Marshall

Profile vs. FBS, 2021

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1857th
  Defense+0.0973rd
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense47.4%82nd
  Defense40.3%67th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.1613th
  Defense+1.2556th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1868th
  Defense+0.1150th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.2560th
  Defense+0.1279th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense52.7%82nd
  Defense46.3%61st
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense33.6%73rd
  Defense27.9%76th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.0850th
  Defense3.0644th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense15.0%70th
  Defense16.3%40th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense12.6%95th
  Defense15.7%30th

Percentiles among the 130 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2021

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Marshall allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   NAVY
2. W
   NCCU
3. L
   ECU
4. L
   APP
5. L
   MTSU
6. W
   ODU
7. W
   UNT
8. W
   FIU
9. W
   FAU
10. L
    UAB
11. W
    CLT
12. L
    WKU
13. L
    UL

Bars above the line: better than expected for Marshall.

Players, 2021

1. Grant WellsQB382 plays · +0.179 pts/play · 75th of 219 QBs
   1.28WAR0.50 to 2.07
2. Rasheen AliRB252 plays · +0.233 pts/play · 6th of 387 RBs
   1.10WAR0.83 to 1.36
3. Robert LeFevreP55 plays · +0.172 pts/play · 15th of 101 punters
   0.18WAR0.07 to 0.30
4. Sheldon EvansRB59 plays · +0.146 pts/play · 241st of 387 RBs
   0.16WAR0.11 to 0.21
5. Corey GammageWR87 plays · +0.096 pts/play · 118th of 474 WRs
   0.16WAR0.06 to 0.27
6. Willie JohnsonWR44 plays · +0.190 pts/play · 118th of 474 WRs
   0.16WAR0.11 to 0.20
7. Shadeed AhmedWR46 plays · +0.126 pts/play · 209th of 474 WRs
   0.11WAR0.06 to 0.16
8. Talik KeatonWR19 plays · +0.142 pts/play · 380th of 474 WRs
   0.05WAR0.03 to 0.07

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Marshall's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2021

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  45745789th of 130Roster talent: 457, 89th of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  14514591st of 130Recruiting: 145, 91st of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  70%70%73rd of 128Returning production: 70%, 73rd of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +8.0+8.051st of 130SP+ rating: +8.0, 51st of 130 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2021

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Marshall's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 1 clear-cut ones account for 0.05 of the 0.11 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs ULQ4 6:28 4th & 1 at MRSH 23, down 1Punted; the numbers favored going for it−5.0 pts
2. at MTSUQ4 14:09 4th & 11 at MRSH 36, down 20Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)−0.9 pts
3. vs UABQ3 10:41 4th & 4 at UAB 49, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts
4. vs ULQ2 5:55 4th & 2 at MRSH 48, up 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts
5. at FAUQ3 6:53 4th & 11 at FAU 36, up 8Punted; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.5 pts
6. vs NCCUQ1 7:51 4th & 8 at NCCU 9, up 6Punted; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.5 pts
7. vs UABQ4 13:31 4th & 4 at MRSH 44, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.4 pts
8. at CLTQ2 5:56 4th & 2 at MRSH 30, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.4 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2021

110th of 130 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Marshall's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   NAVY
2. W

   NCCU
3. L

   ECU
4. L

   APP
5. L

   MTSU
6. W

   ODU
7. W

   UNT
8. W

   FIU
9. W

   FAU
10. L

    UAB
11. W

    CLT
12. L

    WKU
13. L

    UL

What moved it, 2021

Every game starts at Marshall's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−0.59
• Possession & field position+0.03
• Clock+0.18
• Timeouts−0.24
• Other−0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.86

Game by game

• NAVYW 49-7 at NAVY59% → 100%Before kickoff +9 · On the field +41: Scoreboard +46, Possession & field position −1
• NCCUW 44-10 vs NCCU99% → 100%Before kickoff +49 · On the field +1: Scoreboard +2
• ECUL 38-42 vs ECU73% → 98%Before kickoff +23 · On the field +25: Scoreboard +27, Possession & field position +1
• APPL 30-31 at APP30% → 3%Before kickoff −20 · On the field −27: Scoreboard −26, Possession & field position −3
• MTSUL 28-34 at MTSU77% → 3%Before kickoff +27 · On the field −74: Scoreboard −43, Timeouts −4
• ODUW 20-13 vs ODU90% → 28%Before kickoff +40 · On the field −63: Scoreboard −33, Clock +19
• UNTW 49-21 at UNT77% → 100%Before kickoff +27 · On the field +23: Scoreboard +29, Clock +1
• FIUW 38-0 vs FIU88% → 99%Before kickoff +38 · On the field +12: Scoreboard +17
• FAUW 28-13 at FAU48% → 97%Before kickoff −2 · On the field +48: Scoreboard +54, Clock +2
• UABL 14-21 vs UAB62% → 6%Before kickoff +12 · On the field −56: Scoreboard −55, Clock −3
• CLTW 49-28 at CLT81% → 100%Before kickoff +31 · On the field +18: Scoreboard +25, Clock +1
• WKUL 21-53 vs WKU60% → 0%Before kickoff +10 · On the field −60: Scoreboard −60, Clock −1
• ULL 21-36 vs UL38% → 1%Before kickoff −12 · On the field −37: Scoreboard −43, Clock −2

Points of win probability, from Marshall's side.

Closest call

MRSH 26-12 JMU (2022) - Marshall dropped to a 2.6% win probability before pulling it out.