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Win probability · MRSH
modelMRSH aheadUAB aheadconfidence bandkey playMRSH scoreUAB score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · run for a loss of 1 yard to the UAB 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 1:25: DeWayne McBride run for 15 yds for a TD, (Matt Quinn KICK) — UAB win probability +8.8 pts (now 51%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:05: Grant Wells pass complete to Jayden Harrison for 36 yds for a TD, (Shane Ciucci KICK) — MRSH win probability +9.2 pts (now 50%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:18: Grant Wells pass complete to Corey Gammage for 17 yds for a TD, (Shane Ciucci KICK) — MRSH win probability +18.4 pts (now 65%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
- TD · Q3 0:36: Dylan Hopkins run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Quinn KICK) — UAB win probability +20.4 pts (now 71%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 1:31: Timeout UAB, clock 01:31 — UAB win probability +10.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
MRSH made the numbers' call on 5 of 9UAB made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
- Q1 11:09MRSH 4th & 4 at MRSH 31, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.6% before the snapGo for it61.6%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call61.7%average punt
- Q1 8:56UAB 4th & 28 at UAB 5, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.9% before the snapGo for it38.3%−0.96% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call39.1%average punt
- Q1 7:38MRSH 4th & 5 at UAB 40, down 7Close callPunted · 60.5% before the snapGo for it60.5%42% to convertField goal60.3%−0.334% to makePuntTheir call60.4%−0.2average punt
- Q2 14:21MRSH 4th & 1 at UAB 38, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call51.4%70% to convertField goal49.5%−2.038% to makePunt49.4%−2.0average punt
- Q2 12:26UAB 4th & 2 at UAB 46, up 14Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 53.1% before the snapGo for it53.6%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call52.5%−1.1average punt
- Q2 11:36MRSH 4th & 7 at MRSH 21, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.9% before the snapGo for it45.5%−1.135% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call46.6%average punt
- Q2 7:01UAB 4th & 18 at MRSH 37, up 14Close callPunted · 58.6% before the snapGo for it57.3%−1.413% to convertField goal58.8%40% to makePuntTheir call58.5%−0.3average punt
- Q2 4:38MRSH 4th & 4 at MRSH 19, down 14Close callPunted · 38.4% before the snapGo for it38.1%47% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call38.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 2:48UAB 4th & 2 at MRSH 44, up 14Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 63.1% before the snapGo for it63.0%57% to convertField goal60.8%−2.227% to makePuntTheir call61.3%−1.7average punt
- Q3 12:37MRSH 4th & 10 at MRSH 48, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.8% before the snapGo for it43.3%−1.429% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call44.6%average punt
- Q3 12:08UAB 4th & 10 at UAB 20, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.2% before the snapGo for it53.8%−1.727% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.5%average punt
- Q3 12:08UAB 4th & 10 at UAB 20, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.2% before the snapGo for it53.8%−1.727% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.5%average punt
- Q3 10:41MRSH 4th & 4 at UAB 49, down 7Close callPunted · 44.2% before the snapGo for it45.2%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call44.5%−0.7average punt
- Q3 8:51UAB 4th & 7 at UAB 15, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.0% before the snapGo for it56.0%−2.135% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call58.0%average punt
- Q4 13:31MRSH 4th & 4 at MRSH 44, down 7Close callPunted · 32.4% before the snapGo for it32.9%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.5%−0.4average punt
- Q4 3:32UAB 4th & 17 at UAB 48, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.4% before the snapGo for it82.9%−2.714% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call85.6%average punt
- Q4 3:32MRSH 4th & 2 at MRSH 26, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call18.3%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt14.2%−4.2average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MRSH made the numbers' call on 2 of 2UAB made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 12:39UAB Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call37.4%97% to makeGo for two37.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:25UAB Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call47.3%97% to makeGo for two47.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:05MRSH Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call44.1%97% to makeGo for two44.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:18MRSH Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call56.1%97% to makeGo for two55.8%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 0:36UAB Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call62.1%97% to makeGo for two61.9%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUABDrive 1TD8 plays · 81 yds · 2:2138% → 39%
MRSHDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:3061% → 61%
Q1 12:39
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+5
61.2%
Grant Wells pass complete to Xavier Gaines for 5 yds to the Marsh 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 3PUNT4 plays · -18 yds · 2:1339% → 40%
Q1 8:56
4TH & 28
OWN 5
0
60.1%
Kyle Greenwell punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Willie Johnson at the UAB 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1860% → 60%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 5TD21 plays · 99 yds · 7:3841% → 52%
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+36
58.6%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Trea Shropshire for 36 yds to the Marsh 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:38
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+9
58.3%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Gerrit Prince for 9 yds to the Marsh 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+36
48.6%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Trea Shropshire for 36 yds to the Marsh 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+9
48.1%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Gerrit Prince for 9 yds to the Marsh 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 6DOWNS14 plays · 33 yds · 2:0451% → 51%
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+13
51.0%
Grant Wells pass complete to Shadeed Ahmed for 13 yds to the Marsh 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
52.0%
Grant Wells pass complete to Shadeed Ahmed for 11 yds to the UAB 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+13
49.9%
Grant Wells pass complete to Shadeed Ahmed for 13 yds to the Marsh 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
50.9%
Grant Wells pass complete to Shadeed Ahmed for 11 yds to the UAB 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 7PUNT6 plays · 8 yds · 1:5553% → 54%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5047% → 45%
Q2 11:36
4TH & 7
OWN 21
+1
45.2%
Robert Lefevre punt for 38 yds , Starling Thomas V returns for 1 yd to the UAB 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 9PUNT10 plays · 21 yds · 4:3556% → 62%
Q2 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
44.1%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to RaJae' Johnson-Sanders for 15 yds to the Marsh 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
44.1%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to RaJae' Johnson-Sanders for 15 yds to the Marsh 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:36
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+3
44.0%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Hayden Pittman for 3 yds to the Marsh 39Similar
Q2 11:36
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+10
44.2%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Tejhaun Palmer for 10 yds to the Marsh 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 10PUNT8 plays · 18 yds · 2:2341% → 39%
Q2 6:16
2ND & 3
OWN 8
+5
40.7%
Grant Wells pass complete to Corey Gammage for 5 yds to the Marsh 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:16
2ND & 10
OWN 13
-6
40.8%
Ali,Rasheen rush for 4 yards gain to the MAR17 (Wilder,Noah; Moultrie,Antonio) PENALTY MAR Holding (Mollette,Alex) 6 yards from MAR13 to MAR07. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:16
3RD & 16
OWN 7
+12
40.5%
Grant Wells pass complete to Jayden Harrison for 12 yds to the Marsh 19Similar
Q2 4:38
4TH & 4
OWN 19
0
39.3%
Robert Lefevre punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Starling Thomas V at the UAB 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 11PUNT6 plays · 8 yds · 1:5066% → 67%
Q2 2:48
4TH & 2
OPP 44
0
32.7%
Kyle Greenwell punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Willie Johnson at the Marsh 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 12TD9 plays · 87 yds · 1:4338% → 50%
Q2 2:48
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+19
37.8%
Grant Wells pass complete to Willie Johnson for 19 yds to the Marsh 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
38.3%
Grant Wells pass complete to Corey Gammage for 9 yds to the Marsh 41Similar
Q2 2:48
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+7
40.2%
Grant Wells pass complete to Shadeed Ahmed for 7 yds to the Marsh 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:48
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+12
40.4%
Grant Wells pass complete to Rasheen Ali for 12 yds to the UAB 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
40.6%
Grant Wells pass complete to Xavier Gaines for 4 yds to the UAB 36Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+36
49.8%
Grant Wells pass complete to Jayden Harrison for 36 yds for a TD, (Shane Ciucci KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 13END OF HALF3 plays · 6 yds · 1:0556% → 58%
MRSHDrive 14PUNT7 plays · 11 yds · 2:2346% → 43%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
46.2%
Grant Wells pass complete to Rasheen Ali for 4 yds to the Marsh 41Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-3
48.2%
Grant Wells sacked by Tyree Turner for a loss of 3 yards to the Marsh 45 Grant Wells fumbled, recovered by Marsh Grant Wells , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 45
+3
46.4%
Grant Wells pass complete to Corey Gammage for 3 yds to the Marsh 48Similar
Q3 12:37
4TH & 10
OWN 48
0
43.3%
Robert Lefevre punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Starling Thomas V at the UAB 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2958% → 56%
Q3 12:08
4TH & 10
OWN 20
+35
44.2%
Kyle Greenwell punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MARSHALL 30 for a 1ST down UAB Penalty, Personal Foul (Troy Young) to the Marsh 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:08
4TH & 10
OWN 20
+35
44.2%
Kyle Greenwell punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MARSHALL 30 for a 1ST down UAB Penalty, Personal Foul (Troy Young) to the Marsh 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 16PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2746% → 44%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 17PUNT6 plays · 3 yds · 1:5059% → 57%
MRSHDrive 18TD12 plays · 57 yds · 4:3344% → 65%
Q3 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
44.3%
Grant Wells pass complete to Corey Gammage for 8 yds to the UAB 49Similar
Q3 8:51
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+10
45.5%
Grant Wells pass complete to Corey Gammage for 10 yds to the UAB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:10
4TH & 3
OPP 29
+15
41.9%
Wells,Grant pass incomplete to Johnson,Willie PENALTY UAB Pass Interference (Thomas V,Starling) 15 yards from UAB29 to UAB14, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:18
2ND & 13
OPP 17
+17
64.6%
Grant Wells pass complete to Corey Gammage for 17 yds for a TD, (Shane Ciucci KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 19TD10 plays · 75 yds · 3:4244% → 71%
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+51
55.7%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Gerrit Prince for 51 yds to the Marsh 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-10
49.6%
McBride,DeWayne rush for 6 yards gain to the MAR18 (Neal,Eli) PENALTY UAB Holding (Jones,Jakoby) 10 yards from MAR24 to MAR34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:18
3RD & 8
OPP 22
+19
51.9%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Gerrit Prince for 19 yds to the Marsh 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:18
3RD & 8
OPP 22
+19
51.9%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Gerrit Prince for 19 yds to the Marsh 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 20PUNT9 plays · 19 yds · 2:0538% → 34%
UABDrive 21PUNT20 plays · 42 yds · 9:5969% → 86%
Q4 13:31
2ND & 12
OWN 32
+5
29.6%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to RaJae' Johnson-Sanders for 5 yds to the UAB 37Similar
Q4 13:31
2ND & 12
OWN 32
+5
29.6%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to RaJae' Johnson-Sanders for 5 yds to the UAB 37Similar
Q4 9:38
3RD & 7
OWN 37
+8
22.3%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Ryan Davis for 8 yds to the UAB 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:38
3RD & 5
50
-6
20.0%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Ryan Davis for 9 yds to the MARSHALL 41 for a 1ST down UAB Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Ryan Davis) to the UAB 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:38
2ND & 12
OPP 47
+5
19.7%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Gerrit Prince for 5 yds to the Marsh 42Similar
Q4 3:32
4TH & 17
OWN 48
0
13.8%
Kyle Greenwell punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Willie Johnson at the Marsh 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 22INT9 plays · 28 yds · 2:0121% → 16%
Q4 3:32
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+8
20.4%
Grant Wells pass complete to Willie Johnson for 8 yds to the Marsh 26Similar
Q4 3:32
4TH & 2
OWN 26
+4
19.1%
Grant Wells pass complete to Corey Gammage for 4 yds to the Marsh 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:32
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+11
20.5%
Grant Wells pass complete to Corey Gammage for 11 yds to the Marsh 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-12
24.3%
Grant Wells sacked by Kyle Harrell for a loss of 12 yards to the Marsh 29Similar
Q4 3:32
2ND & 22
OWN 29
+17
20.1%
Grant Wells pass complete to Jayden Harrison for 17 yds to the Marsh 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 23END OF 4TH QUARTER5 plays · -22 yds · 1:3195% → 94%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:36
Dylan Hopkins run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Quinn KICK)
-20.4
TD · Q3 4:18
Grant Wells pass complete to Corey Gammage for 17 yds for a TD, (Shane Ciucci KICK)
+18.4
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:31
Timeout UAB, clock 01:31
-10.4