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Win probability · APP
modelAPP aheadMRSH aheadconfidence bandkey playAPP scoreMRSH score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · J. Aguilar takes a knee
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 9:58: Cam Fancher pass intercepted — MRSH win probability +6.8 pts (now 41%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
- TD · Q2 6:41: John McConnell punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Kaedin Robinson at the APP 26 — MRSH win probability +11.7 pts (now 53%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:29: Joey Aguilar pass complete to Michael Hetzel for 16 yds for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK) — MRSH win probability +2.9 pts (now 53%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:00: Joey Aguilar pass complete to Makai Jackson for 29 yds for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK) — MRSH win probability +4.8 pts (now 63%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
- TD · Q3 3:13: Cam Fancher pass complete to Sean Sallis for 10 yds for a TD Appalachian State Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Yards) to the APP 0 (Two-Point Conversion failed) — MRSH win probability +6.0 pts (now 75%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
APP made the numbers' call on 4 of 6MRSH made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
- Q1 8:48MRSH 4th & 17 at APP 27, tiedClose callPunted · 40.4% before the snapGo for it40.1%−0.314% to convertField goal40.4%62% to makePuntTheir call39.6%−0.8average punt
- Q1 8:48APP 4th & 1 at MRSH 48, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call59.7%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt59.4%−0.3average punt
- Q1 8:48APP 4th & 1 at MRSH 36, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call59.7%71% to convertField goal59.4%−0.442% to makePunt59.3%−0.4average punt
- Q1 2:19APP 4th & 2 at MRSH 27, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call60.1%57% to convertField goal59.8%−0.362% to makePunt58.3%−1.8average punt
- Q2 14:11MRSH 4th & 11 at APP 15, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.2% before the snapGo for it38.2%−0.824% to convertField goalTheir call39.0%83% to makePunt35.7%−3.3average punt
- Q2 6:41MRSH 4th & 7 at MRSH 28, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.5% before the snapGo for it44.0%−0.736% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call44.7%average punt
- Q2 0:52MRSH 4th & 7 at MRSH 26, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.1% before the snapGo for it56.4%−1.636% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call58.0%average punt
- Q3 12:55APP 4th & 1 at APP 34, down 10Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 36.4% before the snapGo for it37.2%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call36.1%−1.1average punt
- Q3 11:29MRSH 4th & 7 at MRSH 28, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.1% before the snapGo for it62.3%−1.336% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call63.5%average punt
- Q3 0:00APP 4th & 7 at MRSH 41, down 10Close callPunted · 26.1% before the snapGo for it26.8%37% to convertField goal25.4%−1.332% to makePuntTheir call26.0%−0.7average punt
- Q4 9:50MRSH 4th & 16 at midfield, up 10Numbers favored punt by 3.0 ptsWent for it · 82.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call80.1%−3.016% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt83.1%average punt
- Q4 4:01APP 4th & 12 at MRSH 14, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.3% before the snapGo for it11.4%−1.520% to convertField goalTheir call12.8%84% to makePunt8.0%−4.9average punt
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartAPPDrive 1PUNT3 plays · 26 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
APPDrive 2PUNT1 play · -7 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 3DOWNS4 plays · 42 yds · 1:4438% → 37%
APPDrive 4FG13 plays · 59 yds · 6:2963% → 63%
Q1 8:48
3RD & 9
OWN 44
+8
62.5%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 8 yds to the MRSH 48Similar
Q1 8:48
4TH & 1
OPP 48
+3
62.6%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Eli Wilson for 3 yds to the MRSH 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
63.1%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Dashaun Davis for 7 yds to the MRSH 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 5TD7 plays · 75 yds · 3:0837% → 37%
APPDrive 6INT TD12 plays · -2 yds · 3:1963% → 67%
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
63.1%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Miller Gibbs for 11 yds to the APP 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+26
63.6%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Miller Gibbs for 26 yds to the MRSH 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
64.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Noel,Nate rush left for 2 yards gain to the MU 36 (Hill,D'Yoni) PENALTY APP Illegal Block in Back offsetting MU Offside offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 10
OPP 38
-1
64.6%
Joey Aguilar sacked by TyQaze Leggs for a loss of 1 yard to the MRSH 39Similar
Q2 14:11
3RD & 11
OPP 39
+15
63.6%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Nate Noel for 15 yds to the MRSH 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:52
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+24
66.9%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 24 yds for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 7TD2 plays · 17 yds · 0:4834% → 41%
APPDrive 8PUNT TD4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2562% → 62%
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
62.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun Noel,Nate rush middle for 0 yards to the MU 17 (Watson,Landyn; Porter,Owen) PENALTY MU Offside (Gibson,Isaiah) 5 yards from MU 17 to MU 12. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 9TD6 plays · 74 yds · 1:5242% → 53%
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
58.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun Ali,Rasheen rush middle for 12 yards gain to the MU 37 (Ross,Nick) PENALTY MU Face Mask (Tucker,Dalton) 12 yards from MU 25 to MU 13. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:41
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
47.4%
John McConnell punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Kaedin Robinson at the APP 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 10PUNT TD11 plays · 3 yds · 5:1248% → 47%
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+14
48.6%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Michael Hetzel for 14 yds to the MRSH 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:31
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+4
49.7%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 4 yds to the MRSH 20Similar
Q2 3:31
3RD & 3
OPP 20
+5
48.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun Aguilar,Joey rush middle for 0 yards to the MU 20 fumbled by Aguilar,Joey at MU 24 recovered by MU Alston,Elijah at, End Of Play PENALTY MU Offside (Dix, Jr.,Stephen) 5 yards from MU 20 to MU 15, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
49.7%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Michael Hetzel for 1 yd to the MRSH 16Similar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 11
OPP 16
+16
46.8%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Michael Hetzel for 16 yds for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 11Uncategorized6 plays · 0 yds · 0:2657% → 57%
APPDrive 12PUNT6 plays · 9 yds · 2:5743% → 38%
MRSHDrive 13PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2661% → 61%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 14TD10 plays · 58 yds · 4:2939% → 37%
Q3 11:29
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+10
39.2%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to David Larkins for 10 yds to the MRSH 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
40.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun Aguilar,Joey pass complete deep left to Stroman,Dalton for 41 yards to the MU 05 (Roberts,J.J.) PENALTY APP Pass Interference (Stroman,Dalton) 15 yards from MU 46 to APP39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:29
1ST & 25
OWN 39
+15
38.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Aguilar,Joey pass incomplete deep middle to Robinson,Kaedin broken up by Abraham,Micah PENALTY MU Pass Interference (Abraham,Micah) 15 yards from APP39 to MU 46, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:29
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+5
40.2%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Dashaun Davis for 5 yds to the MRSH 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:29
2ND & 5
OPP 29
0
41.9%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Dashaun Davis for no gain to the MRSH 29Similar
Q3 7:00
3RD & 5
OPP 29
+29
37.0%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Makai Jackson for 29 yds for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 15TD8 plays · 80 yds · 3:4066% → 75%
Q3 6:53
3RD & 11
OPP 37
+25
32.6%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Caleb Coombs for 13 yds to the APP 24 for a 1ST down Appalachian State Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Santana Hopper) to the APP 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:13
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+10
25.5%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Sean Sallis for 10 yds for a TD Appalachian State Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Yards) to the APP 0 (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 16PUNT9 plays · 34 yds · 3:1329% → 27%
MRSHDrive 17INT11 plays · 42 yds · 5:1072% → 82%
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 14
-5
27.3%
Cam Fancher sacked by Donovan Spellman for a loss of 5 yards to the MRSH 9Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 9
+10
28.9%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Caleb McMillan for 10 yds to the MRSH 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 23
-5
26.6%
PENALTY MU False Start (McMillan,Caleb) 5 yards from MU 23 to MU 18. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 21
+35
28.3%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Jayden Harrison for 35 yds to the APP 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-10
24.1%
Cam Fancher sacked by Trenton Yowe for a loss of 10 yards to the MRSH 46Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 20
OWN 46
+4
25.6%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Talik Keaton for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 18FG11 plays · 61 yds · 5:4918% → 11%
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
17.8%
Shotgun Haywood,Maquel rush left for 13 yards gain to the APP38 (Roberts,J.J.) PENALTY APP Holding (Williams,Bucky) 10 yards from APP25 to APP15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+17
17.1%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Michael Hetzel for 17 yds to the APP 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+19
22.8%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 19 yds to the MRSH 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 9
OPP 11
-7
23.0%
Joey Aguilar sacked by Jahsen Wint for a loss of 7 yards to the MRSH 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 19INT10 plays · 62 yds · 2:1790% → 96%
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
9.6%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Chuck Montgomery for 17 yds to the MRSH 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:01
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+15
8.8%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Caleb McMillan for 15 yds to the APP 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:01
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+15
8.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Fancher,Cam pass incomplete deep left to Robinson,Bryan PENALTY APP Pass Interference (Alan Yowe,Trenton) 15 yards from APP39 to APP24, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-10
5.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Fancher,Cam pass complete deep middle to Robinson,Bryan for 24 yards to the APP00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 02:23 PENALTY MU Holding (Tucker,Dalton) 10 yards from APP24 to APP34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:23
2ND & 20
OPP 34
+21
5.9%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Talik Keaton for 21 yds to the APP 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 20END OF GAME3 plays · 8 yds · 1:446% → 5%
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+95
TD · Q2 6:41
John McConnell punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Kaedin Robinson at the APP 26
-11.7
TD · Q2 9:58
Cam Fancher pass intercepted
-6.8