Try the model
MRSH

Marshall 52 at Northern Illinois 23

NIU
2014 · Boca Raton Bowl · Dec 23, 2014 · FAU Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · NIU
modelNIU aheadMRSH aheadconfidence bandkey playNIU scoreMRSH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:10 · Tyler Williams punt for 42 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+57.5+28.80−28.8−57.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 111Home team on offense−13.2Pregame prior−15.9Score differential−6.4Garbage-time factor−3.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:29: Devon Johnson 2 Yd Run (Justin Haig Kick) — MRSH win probability +5.0 pts (now 84%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:07: Christian Hagan 30 Yd Field Goal — NIU win probability +4.0 pts (now 19%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:39: Tommy Shuler 6 Yd pass from Rakeem Cato (Justin Haig Kick) — MRSH win probability +8.1 pts (now 93%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:50: Cameron Stingily 24 Yd Run (Christian Hagan Kick) — NIU win probability +10.8 pts (now 21%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:06: Angelo Jean-Louis 11 Yd pass from Rakeem Cato (Justin Haig Kick) — MRSH win probability +10.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NIU made the numbers' call on 9 of 11MRSH made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 11:21NIU 4th & 4 at MRSH 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    26.6%−0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    26.6%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:50MRSH 4th & 10 at MRSH 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.5%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:54NIU 4th & 8 at NIU 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.3%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:32NIU 4th & 7 at MRSH 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.5%
    83% to make
    Punt
    23.8%−3.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:51MRSH 4th & 7 at NIU 11, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.8%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.1%
    87% to make
    Punt
    69.8%−3.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:30NIU 4th & 1 at MRSH 1, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 25.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.7%
    59% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.3%−1.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    20.0%−4.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:58NIU 4th & 11 at NIU 36, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.6%−0.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:39MRSH 4th & 13 at MRSH 36, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.8%−1.7
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:07NIU 4th & 9 at MRSH 13, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.0%−1.0
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.1%
    85% to make
    Punt
    16.7%−2.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:34NIU 4th & 1 at NIU 49, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    21.4%−1.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:10MRSH 4th & 3 at NIU 42, up 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 78.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    77.3%−1.6
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    77.9%−1.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:49NIU 4th & 8 at NIU 22, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%−1.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:39NIU 4th & 15 at NIU 33, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.1%−2.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:39NIU 4th & 14 at MRSH 14, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.4
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.8%
    84% to make
    Punt
    -0.3%−1.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:43NIU 4th & 6 at NIU 32, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:15MRSH 4th & 1 at MRSH 34, up 29
    Close callWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NIU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MRSH made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 7:33NIU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:19MRSH Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:42MRSH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:29MRSH Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:39MRSH Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:50NIU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:06MRSH Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:48MRSH Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 4:10MRSH Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NIUDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 43 yds · 3:2720% → 22%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
19.6%
Akeem Daniels run for 5 yds to the NoIll 23Similar
Q1 14:28
2ND & 5
OWN 23
-12
19.8%
Aregeros Turner run for a loss of 12 yards to the NoIll 11Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 17
OWN 11
+29
20.1%
Drew Hare pass complete to Akeem Daniels for 29 yds to the NoIll 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
20.4%
Drew Hare pass complete to Cameron Stingily for 8 yds to the NoIll 48Similar
Q1 12:53
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+7
20.7%
Joel Bouagnon run for 7 yds to the Marsh 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
21.0%
Cameron Stingily run for 3 yds to the Marsh 42Similar
Q1 12:08
2ND & 7
OPP 42
0
21.2%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Da'Ron BrownSimilar
Q1 12:02
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+3
21.2%
Drew Hare run for 3 yds to the Marsh 39Similar
Q1 11:21
4TH & 4
OPP 39
0
21.5%
Tyler Wedel punt for 36 yds, downed at the Marsh 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 44 yds · 1:2279% → 78%
Q1 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+33
21.4%
Devon Johnson run for 33 yds to the Marsh 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
21.5%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Tommy Shuler for 11 yds to the Marsh 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
21.4%
Devon Johnson run for no gain to the Marsh 47Similar
Q1 10:04
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
21.7%
Rakeem Cato pass incomplete to Davonte AllenSimilar
Q1 9:57
3RD & 10
OWN 47
0
21.9%
Rakeem Cato pass incomplete to Deon-Tay McManusSimilar
Q1 9:50
4TH & 10
OWN 47
0
22.2%
Tyler Williams punt for 20 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoIll 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 3TD
8 plays · 67 yds · 2:1222% → 26%
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
22.3%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Da'Ron Brown, broken up by Taj LetmanSimilar
Q1 9:38
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+7
22.3%
Aregeros Turner run for 7 yds to the NoIll 40Similar
Q1 9:26
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+4
22.5%
Drew Hare run for 4 yds to the NoIll 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+19
23.0%
Drew Hare run for 19 yds to the Marsh 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
23.2%
Joel Bouagnon run for 1 yd to the Marsh 36Similar
Q1 8:08
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+15
23.6%
Hare, Drew pass incomplete to Brown, Da'Ron, PENALTY MARSHALL pass interference (Letman, Taj) 15 yards to the MARSHALL21, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NORTHERNIL. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
23.8%
Akeem Daniels run for 2 yds to the Marsh 19Similar
Q1 7:33
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+19
26.1%
Juwan Brescacin 19 Yd pass from Drew Hare (Christian Hagan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:1123% → 24%
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
23.4%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Da'Ron Brown, broken up by Corey TindalSimilar
Q1 6:59
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+6
23.4%
Drew Hare pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 6 yds to the NoIll 12Similar
Q1 6:26
3RD & 4
OWN 12
-4
23.5%
Drew Hare sacked by Jermaine Holmes and Neville Hewitt for a loss of 4 yards to the NoIll 8Similar
Q1 5:54
4TH & 8
OWN 8
0
23.5%
Tyler Wedel punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoIll 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 6TD
5 plays · 42 yds · 2:0577% → 79%
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+14
23.4%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Tommy Shuler for 14 yds to the NoIll 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+14
23.3%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Tommy Shuler for 14 yds to the NoIll 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
23.4%
Steward Butler run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 15Similar
Q1 4:23
2ND & 11
OPP 15
+10
23.8%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Tommy Shuler for 10 yds to the NoIll 5Similar
Q1 3:42
3RD & 1
OPP 5
+5
21.3%
Rakeem Cato 5 Yd Run (Justin Haig Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 7MISSED FG
15 plays · 59 yds · 3:5622% → 23%
Q1 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
22.3%
Cameron Stingily run for 3 yds to the NoIll 29Similar
Q1 3:03
2ND & 7
OWN 29
0
22.5%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Luke EakesSimilar
Q1 2:56
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+15
22.1%
Drew Hare pass complete to Christian Blake for 15 yds to the NoIll 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-2
22.9%
Joel Bouagnon run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoIll 42Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 12
OWN 42
+4
22.6%
Drew Hare run for 4 yds to the NoIll 46Similar
Q1 1:28
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+13
22.6%
Drew Hare pass complete to Luke Eakes for 13 yds to the Marsh 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
23.7%
Cameron Stingily run for 9 yds to the Marsh 32Similar
Q1 0:41
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+4
24.3%
Cameron Stingily run for 4 yds to the Marsh 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+10
24.5%
Hare, Drew pass incomplete to Brown, Da'Ron, PENALTY MARSHALL holding (Tindal, Corey) 10 yards to the MARSHALL18, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NORTHERNIL. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
24.1%
Joel Bouagnon run for 4 yds to the Marsh 14Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 6
OPP 14
-1
24.2%
Drew Hare run for a loss of 1 yard to the Marsh 15 NORTHERNIL Penalty, Illegal Shift ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 14:40
3RD & 7
OPP 15
0
23.6%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Da'Ron BrownSimilar
Q2 14:32
4TH & 7
OPP 15
+32
23.0%
Christian Hagan 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 8FG
9 plays · 69 yds · 2:3678% → 78%
Q2 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
22.4%
Rakeem Cato run for 2 yds to the Marsh 22Similar
Q2 14:04
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+8
22.5%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Tommy Shuler for 8 yds to the Marsh 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
22.0%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Tommy Shuler for 7 yds to the Marsh 37Similar
Q2 13:33
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+2
21.7%
Devon Johnson run for 2 yds to the Marsh 39Similar
Q2 13:05
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+47
21.6%
Devon Johnson run for 47 yds to the NoIll 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
21.1%
Rakeem Cato pass incomplete to Ryan YurachekSimilar
Q2 12:41
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+3
21.1%
Devon Johnson run for 3 yds to the NoIll 11Similar
Q2 11:56
3RD & 7
OPP 11
0
21.4%
Rakeem Cato pass incomplete to Tommy ShulerSimilar
Q2 11:51
4TH & 7
OPP 11
+28
21.6%
Justin Haig 28 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 9FG
11 plays · 64 yds · 4:0621% → 24%
Q2 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
21.2%
Cameron Stingily run for 11 yds to the NoIll 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
21.9%
Cameron Stingily run for 3 yds to the NoIll 49Similar
Q2 10:53
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+2
22.1%
Drew Hare run for 2 yds to the Marsh 49Similar
Q2 10:25
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+5
22.0%
Drew Hare pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 5 yds to the Marsh 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+27
22.3%
Joel Bouagnon run for 27 yds to the Marsh 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+13
22.9%
Joel Bouagnon run for 13 yds to the Marsh 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
23.0%
Joel Bouagnon run for 3 yds to the Marsh 1Similar
Q2 8:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
23.0%
Joel Bouagnon run for no gain to the Marsh 1Similar
Q2 8:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
22.2%
Joel Bouagnon run for no gain to the Marsh 1Similar
Q2 7:30
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+19
23.9%
Christian Hagan 19 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 10TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 1:5378% → 84%
Q2 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
21.7%
Remi Watson run for 5 yds to the Marsh 40Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+13
21.1%
Rakeem Cato run for 13 yds to the NoIll 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
20.8%
Steward Butler run for 3 yds to the NoIll 44Similar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+42
20.9%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Tommy Shuler for 42 yds to the NoIll 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
20.6%
Rakeem Cato pass incomplete to Deon-Tay McManusSimilar
Q2 5:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
15.6%
Devon Johnson 2 Yd Run (Justin Haig Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 11 yds · 2:2517% → 16%
Q2 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
16.6%
Hare, Drew pass complete to Bouagnon, Joel for 9 yards to the NORTHERNIL34, PENALTY NORTHERNIL illegal shift 5 yards to the NORTHERNIL20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:12
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
16.5%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Da'Ron BrownSimilar
Q2 5:05
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+3
16.4%
Joel Bouagnon run for 3 yds to the NoIll 23Similar
Q2 4:25
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+14
16.1%
Drew Hare pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 14 yds to the NoIll 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
17.0%
Cameron Stingily run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoIll 35Similar
Q2 3:43
2ND & 12
OWN 35
0
16.4%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Aregeros TurnerSimilar
Q2 3:36
3RD & 12
OWN 35
+1
16.2%
Drew Hare run for 1 yd to the NoIll 36Similar
Q2 2:58
4TH & 11
OWN 36
+25
16.2%
Tyler Wedel punt for 40 yds, downed at the NORTHERNIL 24 NORTHERNIL Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (Shawun Lurry) to the Marsh 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:1485% → 84%
Q2 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
15.4%
Devon Johnson run for 1 yd to the Marsh 40Similar
Q2 2:23
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+4
15.5%
Devon Johnson run for 4 yds to the Marsh 44Similar
Q2 1:45
3RD & 5
OWN 44
-8
14.5%
Rakeem Cato sacked by Sean Folliard for a loss of 8 yards to the Marsh 36Similar
Q2 1:39
4TH & 13
OWN 36
+26
15.8%
Tyler Williams punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Shawun Lurry at the NORTHERNIL 23 MARSHALL Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (Antavis Rowe) to the NoIll 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 13DOWNS
10 plays · 49 yds · 1:2717% → 19%
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
16.8%
Joel Bouagnon run for 4 yds to the NoIll 42Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+2
17.0%
Drew Hare pass complete to Joel Bouagnon for 2 yds to the NoIll 44Similar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+16
16.7%
Joel Bouagnon run for 16 yds to the Marsh 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+26
17.3%
Drew Hare pass complete to Da'Ron Brown for 26 yds to the Marsh 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
17.7%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 10
OPP 14
0
17.7%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Aregeros TurnerSimilar
Q2 0:14
3RD & 10
OPP 14
+1
16.8%
Drew Hare run for 1 yd to the Marsh 13Similar
Q2 0:07
4TH & 9
OPP 13
+30
19.1%
Christian Hagan 30 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 15DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:1520% → 20%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
20.4%
Cameron Stingily run for 7 yds to the NoIll 47Similar
Q3 14:25
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+2
21.1%
Cameron Stingily run for 2 yds to the NoIll 49Similar
Q3 13:58
3RD & 1
OWN 49
0
20.7%
Cameron Stingily run for no gain to the NoIll 49Similar
Q3 13:34
4TH & 1
OWN 49
0
20.2%
Cameron Stingily run for no gain to the NoIll 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1882% → 81%
Q3 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
18.5%
Rakeem Cato pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:21
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
18.5%
Devon Johnson run for no gain to the NoIll 49Similar
Q3 12:49
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+7
18.8%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Eric Frohnapfel for 7 yds to the NoIll 42Similar
Q3 12:10
4TH & 3
OPP 42
0
19.1%
Tyler Williams punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1419% → 17%
Q3 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
19.3%
Joel Bouagnon run for 6 yds to the NoIll 26Similar
Q3 11:31
2ND & 4
OWN 26
0
19.6%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Da'Ron BrownSimilar
Q3 11:23
3RD & 4
OWN 26
-4
18.9%
Drew Hare sacked by Jermaine Holmes for a loss of 4 yards to the NoIll 22Similar
Q3 10:49
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
17.0%
Tyler Wedel punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Tommy Shuler at the Marsh 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 18TD
12 plays · 56 yds · 4:0482% → 93%
Q3 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
17.6%
Steward Butler run for 3 yds to the Marsh 47Similar
Q3 10:13
2ND & 7
OWN 47
-6
17.6%
Rakeem Cato sacked by Sean Folliard for a loss of 6 yards to the Marsh 41Similar
Q3 9:30
3RD & 13
OWN 41
+20
17.6%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Deon-Tay McManus for 20 yds to the NoIll 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+13
16.8%
Remi Watson run for 13 yds to the NoIll 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-5
16.5%
MARSHALL Penalty, False Start (Chris Jasperse) to the NoIll 31Similar
Q3 8:50
1ST & 15
OPP 31
+3
16.6%
Remi Watson run for 3 yds to the NoIll 28Similar
Q3 8:05
2ND & 12
OPP 28
0
16.1%
Rakeem Cato pass incomplete to Deon-Tay McManusSimilar
Q3 8:00
3RD & 12
OPP 28
+15
16.5%
Cato, Rakeem pass incomplete to McManus, Deon-Tay, PENALTY NORTHERNIL pass interference (Smalls, Albert) 15 yards to the NORTHERNIL13, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MARSHALL. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
15.8%
Hyleck Foster run for no gain to the NoIll 13Similar
Q3 7:17
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+12
15.6%
Hyleck Foster run for 12 yds to the NoIll 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
15.4%
Watson, Remi rush for 1 yard to the NORTHERNIL0, PENALTY MARSHALL illegal formation 5 yards to the NORTHERNIL6, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
7.3%
Tommy Shuler 6 Yd pass from Rakeem Cato (Justin Haig Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 19TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:4410% → 21%
Q3 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
9.7%
Cameron Stingily run for 4 yds to the NoIll 29Similar
Q3 6:04
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+16
9.8%
Drew Hare run for 16 yds to the NoIll 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
10.6%
Cameron Stingily run for 1 yd to the NoIll 46Similar
Q3 5:09
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+30
10.3%
Drew Hare pass complete to Aregeros Turner for 30 yds to the Marsh 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
21.1%
Cameron Stingily 24 Yd Run (Christian Hagan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 20TD
12 plays · 68 yds · 2:3183% → 95%
Q3 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
17.2%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Tommy Shuler for 5 yds to the Marsh 37Similar
Q3 4:22
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+7
16.6%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Ryan Yurachek for 7 yds to the Marsh 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
15.8%
Rakeem Cato pass incomplete to Tommy ShulerSimilar
Q3 4:04
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+8
15.9%
Devon Johnson run for 8 yds to the NoIll 48Similar
Q3 3:39
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+3
16.0%
Devon Johnson run for 3 yds to the NoIll 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
15.6%
Rakeem Cato pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
15.6%
Rakeem Cato pass incomplete to Angelo Jean-LouisSimilar
Q3 3:13
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+15
15.9%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Angelo Jean-Louis for 15 yds to the NoIll 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+12
15.2%
Devon Johnson run for 12 yds to the NoIll 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+7
15.0%
Devon Johnson run for 7 yds to the NoIll 11Similar
Q3 2:06
2ND & 3
OPP 11
+11
4.7%
Angelo Jean-Louis 11 Yd pass from Rakeem Cato (Justin Haig Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:148% → 7%
Q3 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
8.4%
Cameron Stingily run for no gain to the NoIll 38Similar
Q3 1:20
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
7.9%
Drew Hare pass incomplete, broken up by Gary ThompsonSimilar
Q3 1:12
3RD & 10
OWN 38
-5
7.6%
Drew Hare sacked by Gary Thompson for a loss of 5 yards to the NoIll 33Similar
Q3 0:39
4TH & 15
OWN 33
0
6.8%
Tyler Wedel punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Marsh 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 22TD
10 plays · 70 yds · 3:4495% → 100%
Q3 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
4.7%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Eric Frohnapfel for 9 yds to the Marsh 39Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+7
4.4%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Tommy Shuler for 7 yds to the Marsh 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
4.3%
Rakeem Cato run for 7 yds to the NoIll 47Similar
Q4 14:23
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+4
4.0%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Tommy Shuler for 4 yds to the NoIll 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-10
4.0%
Cato, Rakeem pass incomplete, PENALTY MARSHALL holding 10 yards to the MARSHALL47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:57
1ST & 20
OWN 47
0
4.0%
Rakeem Cato run for no gain to the Marsh 47Similar
Q4 13:23
2ND & 20
OWN 47
+13
3.9%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Tommy Shuler for 13 yds to the NoIll 40Similar
Q4 12:48
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+9
3.8%
Rakeem Cato run for 9 yds to the NoIll 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
3.7%
Remi Watson run for 4 yds to the NoIll 27Similar
Q4 11:48
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+27
0.5%
Deon-Tay McManus 27 Yd pass from Rakeem Cato (Justin Haig Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 23FG
11 plays · 65 yds · 2:581% → 2%
Q4 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+13
0.5%
Drew Hare pass complete to Da'Ron Brown for 13 yds to the NoIll 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
0.5%
Drew Hare run for 3 yds to the NoIll 37Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+21
0.5%
Drew Hare pass complete to Juwan Brescacin for 21 yds to the Marsh 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+11
0.6%
Drew Hare pass complete to Da'Ron Brown for 11 yds to the Marsh 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+13
0.6%
Drew Hare pass complete to Da'Ron Brown for 13 yds to the Marsh 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+11
0.6%
Drew Hare run for 11 yds to the Marsh 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
0.6%
Cameron Stingily run for 3 yds to the Marsh 4Similar
Q4 9:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-10
0.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 10 yards to the Marsh 14Similar
Q4 8:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
0
0.5%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Da'Ron BrownSimilar
Q4 8:39
4TH & GOAL
OPP 14
+31
1.9%
Christian Hagan 31 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 24TD
9 plays · 41 yds · 4:1299% → 100%
Q4 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
1.2%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Tommy Shuler for 3 yds to the NoIll 38Similar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+2
1.1%
Devon Johnson run for 2 yds to the NoIll 36Similar
Q4 6:56
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+7
1.0%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Tommy Shuler for 7 yds to the NoIll 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
0.9%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Tommy Shuler for 4 yds to the NoIll 25Similar
Q4 5:34
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+14
0.8%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Tommy Shuler for 14 yds to the NoIll 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+7
0.8%
Devon Johnson run for 7 yds to the NoIll 4Similar
Q4 4:16
2ND & 3
OPP 4
0
0.7%
Rakeem Cato pass incomplete to Tommy ShulerSimilar
Q4 4:10
3RD & 3
OPP 4
+4
0.2%
Rakeem Cato 4 Yd Run (Justin Haig Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:130% → 0%
Q4 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
0.2%
Cameron Stingily run for 1 yd to the NoIll 29Similar
Q4 3:28
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+3
0.1%
Cameron Stingily run for 3 yds to the NoIll 32Similar
Q4 2:58
3RD & 6
OWN 32
0
0.1%
Drew Hare pass incomplete to Da'Ron BrownSimilar
Q4 2:43
4TH & 6
OWN 32
0
0.1%
Tyler Wedel punt for 65 yds, downed at the Marsh 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 26END OF GAME
12 plays · 41 yds · 2:19100% → 100%
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+12
0.2%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Tommy Shuler for 12 yds to the Marsh 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
0.1%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Tommy Shuler for 4 yds to the Marsh 19Similar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 6
OWN 19
-1
0.1%
Rakeem Cato run for a loss of 1 yard to the Marsh 18Similar
Q4 1:47
3RD & 7
OWN 18
+7
0.1%
Steward Butler run for 7 yds to the Marsh 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.1%
Rakeem Cato pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:07
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
0.1%
Steward Butler run for 5 yds to the Marsh 30Similar
Q4 1:01
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
0.1%
Tony Pittman run for 4 yds to the Marsh 34Similar
Q4 0:15
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+10
0.1%
Tony Pittman run for 10 yds to the Marsh 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:50
Cameron Stingily 24 Yd Run (Christian Hagan Kick)
+10.8
TD · Q3 2:06
Angelo Jean-Louis 11 Yd pass from Rakeem Cato (Justin Haig Kick)
-10.4
TD · Q3 6:39
Tommy Shuler 6 Yd pass from Rakeem Cato (Justin Haig Kick)
-8.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com