2014 · Week 11 · Nov 8, 2014 · M. M. Roberts Stadium
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Win probability · USM
modelUSM aheadMRSH aheadconfidence bandkey playUSM scoreMRSH score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:40 · Corey Acosta kickoff for 15 yds , TEAM return for no gain to the SoMis 44 TEAM fumbled, forced by TEAM, recovered by SoMis Tez Parks
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 8:40: Ito Smith run for 2 yds for a TD, (Corey Acosta KICK) — USM win probability +3.0 pts (now 9%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q1 8:40: Corey Acosta kickoff for 15 yds , TEAM return for no gain to the SoMis 44 TEAM fumbled, forced by TEAM, recovered by SoMis Tez Parks — MRSH win probability +0.1 pts (now 92%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USM made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 8:40USM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call10.4%97% to makeGo for two10.4%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUSMDrive 1TD14 plays · 75 yds · 6:206% → 9%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+12
5.5%
Cole Weeks pass complete to Marquise Ricard for 12 yds to the SoMis 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+19
5.5%
Cole Weeks pass complete to Jalen Richard for 19 yds to the Marsh 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+6
5.5%
Cole Weeks sacked by Arnold Blackmon for a loss of 1 yard to the Marsh 19 Cole Weeks fumbled, recovered by SoMis Jalen Richard , return for 0 yards , return for 6 yds to the Marsh 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-8.4
TD · Q1 8:40
Ito Smith run for 2 yds for a TD, (Corey Acosta KICK)
+3
KEY PLAY · Q1 8:40
Corey Acosta kickoff for 15 yds , TEAM return for no gain to the SoMis 44 TEAM fumbled, forced by TEAM, recovered by SoMis Tez Parks
-0.1