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MRSH

Marshall 45 at Florida International 13

FIU
2014 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2014 · FIU Stadium
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Win probability · FIU
modelFIU aheadMRSH aheadconfidence bandkey playFIU scoreMRSH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Gunnar Holcombe run for 5 yds to the Marsh 38 Justin Hunt
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:00: Alex McGough run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Taylor KICK) — FIU win probability +3.2 pts (now 18%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 0:05: Rakeem Cato pass complete to Ryan Yurachek for 1 yd for a TD, (Justin Haig KICK) — MRSH win probability +2.2 pts (now 86%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 5:32: Rakeem Cato pass complete to Angelo Jean-Louis for 13 yds for a TD, (Justin Haig KICK) — MRSH win probability +4.4 pts (now 87%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:21: Rakeem Cato pass complete to Devon Johnson for 46 yds for a TD, (Justin Haig KICK) — MRSH win probability +8.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:40: Rakeem Cato pass complete to Devon Johnson for 27 yds for a TD, (Justin Haig KICK) — MRSH win probability +6.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FIU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7MRSH made the numbers' call on 1 of 4
  1. Q1 12:34MRSH 4th & 8 at MRSH 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.8%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:00FIU 4th & 22 at FIU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.0%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:31MRSH 4th & 8 at FIU 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 86.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.7%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    86.6%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    86.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:11FIU 4th & 2 at MRSH 21, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 19.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.0%−0.2
    74% to make
    Punt
    17.6%−1.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:29MRSH 4th & 2 at MRSH 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 80.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.0%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:52FIU 4th & 24 at FIU 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.1%−1.9
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:46FIU 4th & 11 at FIU 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.9%−0.7
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:55FIU 4th & 19 at FIU 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.9%−3.4
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:05MRSH 4th & 2 at FIU 18, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 82.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.6%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.7%−0.8
    79% to make
    Punt
    76.0%−6.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:38FIU 4th & 5 at FIU 46, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.3%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.4%
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:44FIU 4th & 2 at FIU 43, down 31
    Close callPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FIU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1MRSH made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 2:00FIU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:05MRSH Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:32MRSH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:21MRSH Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:40MRSH Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:34MRSH Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:07MRSH Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MRSHDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 23 yds · 2:2691% → 90%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
8.6%
Devon Johnson run for 1 yd to the Marsh 21Similar
Q1 14:45
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+6
8.7%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Eric Frohnapfel for 6 yds to the Marsh 27Similar
Q1 13:50
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+4
9.0%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Tommy Shuler for 4 yds to the Marsh 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
9.1%
Rakeem Cato pass incomplete to Angelo Jean-LouisSimilar
Q1 13:35
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+10
9.1%
Devon Johnson run for 10 yds to the Marsh 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
9.2%
Devon Johnson run for 2 yds to the Marsh 43Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 8
OWN 43
0
9.3%
Rakeem Cato pass incomplete to Angelo Jean-LouisSimilar
Q1 12:50
3RD & 8
OWN 43
0
9.4%
Rakeem Cato pass incomplete to Angelo Jean-LouisSimilar
Q1 12:34
4TH & 8
OWN 43
0
9.6%
Tyler Williams punt for 52 yds, downed at the FlaIn 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 2:3410% → 11%
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+5
9.5%
Alex McGough pass complete to Jonnu Smith for 5 yds to the FlaIn 10Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 5
OWN 10
+3
9.6%
Alex Gardner run for 3 yds to the FlaIn 13Similar
Q1 12:15
3RD & 2
OWN 13
+3
9.6%
Alex McGough run for 3 yds to the FlaIn 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+24
9.9%
Alex McGough pass complete to Jonnu Smith for 24 yds to the FlaIn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
10.1%
Alex McGough pass incomplete to Glenn ColemanSimilar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-12
10.5%
Alex Gardner run for 3 yds to the FlaIn 43 FLORIDA INTL Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (NA) to the FlaIn 28Similar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 22
OWN 28
0
10.5%
Alex McGough pass incomplete to Alex GardnerSimilar
Q1 10:10
3RD & 22
OWN 28
0
10.4%
Alex McGough pass incomplete to De'Andre JasperSimilar
Q1 10:00
4TH & 22
OWN 28
+12
10.5%
Jose Laphitzondo punt for 42 yds , Tommy Shuler returns for 12 yds to the Marsh 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 2:2990% → 88%
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
10.4%
Remi Watson run for 4 yds to the Marsh 46Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+2
10.5%
Remi Watson run for 2 yds to the Marsh 48Similar
Q1 9:30
3RD & 4
OWN 48
-5
10.6%
MARSHALL Penalty, False Start (Trevor Mendelson) to the Marsh 43Similar
Q1 8:45
3RD & 9
OWN 43
+12
11.0%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Eric Frohnapfel for 12 yds to the FlaIn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
10.8%
MARSHALL Penalty, False Start (NA) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 8:15
1ST & 15
50
+7
11.2%
Remi Watson run for 7 yds to the FlaIn 43Similar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 8
OPP 43
0
11.2%
Rakeem Cato pass incomplete to Tommy ShulerSimilar
Q1 7:40
3RD & 8
OPP 43
0
11.3%
Rakeem Cato pass incomplete to Angelo Jean-LouisSimilar
Q1 7:31
4TH & 8
OPP 43
0
11.6%
Tyler Williams punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 4TD
14 plays · 80 yds · 5:3112% → 18%
Q1 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
11.7%
Alex Gardner run for 11 yds to the FlaIn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
11.8%
De'Andre Jasper run for 10 yds to the FlaIn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
12.0%
Alex Gardner run for 3 yds to the FlaIn 44Similar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+5
12.4%
Alex Gardner run for 5 yds to the FlaIn 49Similar
Q1 6:30
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+5
12.4%
Lamarq Caldwell run for 5 yds to the Marsh 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
12.7%
Alex Gardner run for 6 yds to the Marsh 40Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 4
OPP 40
-10
13.2%
FLORIDA INTL Penalty, Offensive Holding (NA) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 14
50
0
12.9%
Alex McGough pass incomplete to Glenn ColemanSimilar
Q1 3:45
3RD & 14
50
+24
13.6%
Alex McGough pass complete to Jonnu Smith for 24 yds to the Marsh 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
14.4%
Alex McGough pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:24
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+6
14.5%
Alex Gardner run for 6 yds to the Marsh 20Similar
Q1 3:15
3RD & 4
OPP 20
+14
14.4%
Alex Gardner run for 14 yds to the Marsh 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
14.7%
Alex Gardner run for 5 yds to the Marsh 1Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
17.9%
Alex McGough run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Taylor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 5TD
5 plays · 74 yds · 1:5583% → 86%
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+71
16.9%
Devon Johnson run for 71 yds to the FlaIn 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
16.1%
Devon Johnson run for 1 yd to the FlaIn 2Similar
Q1 0:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
16.6%
Devon Johnson run for 1 yd to the FlaIn 1Similar
Q1 0:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
14.4%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Ryan Yurachek for 1 yd for a TD, (Justin Haig KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 6MISSED FG
6 plays · 54 yds · 1:4916% → 17%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+46
15.8%
Alex McGough pass complete to Cory White for 46 yds to the Marsh 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
16.9%
Alex Gardner run for 1 yd to the Marsh 28Similar
Q2 14:30
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+3
17.3%
Lamarq Caldwell run for 3 yds to the Marsh 25Similar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+4
17.3%
Lamarq Caldwell run for 4 yds to the Marsh 21Similar
Q2 13:11
4TH & 2
OPP 21
+38
17.3%
Austin Taylor 38 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Ricardo WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:4284% → 82%
Q2 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
16.3%
Rakeem Cato pass incomplete to Angelo Jean-LouisSimilar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+1
16.4%
Remi Watson run for 1 yd to the Marsh 22Similar
Q2 12:45
3RD & 9
OWN 22
+13
17.0%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Angelo Jean-Louis for 13 yds to the Marsh 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
16.5%
Remi Watson run for 1 yd to the Marsh 36Similar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+6
16.6%
Remi Watson run for 6 yds to the Marsh 42Similar
Q2 11:00
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+1
16.8%
Remi Watson run for 1 yd to the Marsh 43Similar
Q2 10:29
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
17.8%
Tyler Williams punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · -3 yds · 3:3719% → 20%
Q2 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
18.8%
Alex Gardner run for 4 yds to the FlaIn 24Similar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+7
19.5%
Alex McGough pass complete to Jonnu Smith for 7 yds to the FlaIn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
19.8%
Alex McGough run for 4 yds to the FlaIn 35Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 6
OWN 35
-9
20.8%
Alex McGough sacked by Neville Hewitt for a loss of 9 yards to the FlaIn 26Similar
Q2 7:45
3RD & 15
OWN 26
-9
19.6%
Alex McGough sacked by D.J. Hunter for a loss of 9 yards to the FlaIn 17Similar
Q2 6:52
4TH & 24
OWN 17
0
19.8%
Jose Laphitzondo punt for 46 yds, downed at the Marsh 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 9TD
5 plays · 63 yds · 1:2082% → 87%
Q2 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+39
18.5%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Justin Hunt for 39 yds to the FlaIn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
17.1%
Rakeem Cato pass incomplete to Justin HuntSimilar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+16
17.4%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Tommy Shuler for 16 yds to the FlaIn 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
17.3%
MARSHALL Penalty, False Start (NA) to the FlaIn 13Similar
Q2 5:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 13
+13
12.9%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Angelo Jean-Louis for 13 yds for a TD, (Justin Haig KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 2:4615% → 15%
Q2 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
14.6%
Anthon Samuel run for 3 yds to the FlaIn 28Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
14.9%
MARSHALL Penalty, Defensive Offside (NA) to the FlaIn 33Similar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
15.7%
Alex McGough pass complete to Jonnu Smith for 3 yds to the FlaIn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-3
15.4%
Anthon Samuel run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaIn 33Similar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 13
OWN 33
+2
15.0%
Alex McGough run for 2 yds to the FlaIn 35Similar
Q2 3:15
3RD & 11
OWN 35
0
14.7%
Alex McGough pass incomplete to Dominique RhymesSimilar
Q2 2:46
4TH & 11
OWN 35
+34
14.5%
Jose Laphitzondo punt for 45 yds , Tommy Shuler returns for 34 yds to the FlaIn 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 11INT
6 plays · 30 yds · 1:1187% → 87%
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
13.0%
Cato, Rakeem pass incomplete to Hunt, Justin, PENALTY FLAINTL pass interference 15 yards to the FLAINTL31, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MARSHALL. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
12.9%
Rakeem Cato pass incomplete to Tommy ShulerSimilar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+15
12.9%
FLORIDA INTL Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Richard Leonard) to the FlaIn 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
12.8%
Remi Watson run for no gain to the FlaIn 16Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
12.5%
Rakeem Cato pass incomplete to Justin HuntSimilar
Q2 1:29
3RD & 10
OPP 16
+21
13.0%
Rakeem Cato pass intercepted Richard Leonard return for 13 yds to the FlaIn 3 FLORIDA INTL Penalty, Illegal Block (NA) to the FlaIn 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 12END OF HALF
7 plays · 36 yds · 1:2915% → 17%
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+19
15.1%
Alex McGough pass complete to T.J. Lowder for 19 yds to the FlaIn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-3
15.9%
Alex McGough pass complete to Jonnu Smith for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaIn 23Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 13
OWN 23
+1
15.6%
Alex Gardner run for 1 yd to the FlaIn 24Similar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 12
OWN 24
+17
15.4%
Alex Gardner run for 2 yds to the FlaIn 26 for a 1ST down MARSHALL Penalty, Personal Foul (NA) to the FlaIn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
17.3%
Alex McGough pass incomplete to T.J. LowderSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+2
16.5%
Alex Gardner run for 2 yds to the FlaIn 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 13FUMBLE
8 plays · 1 yds · 3:5017% → 17%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
17.0%
Alex McGough run for 4 yds to the FlaIn 35Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+5
17.6%
Alex Gardner run for 5 yds to the FlaIn 40Similar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+1
18.4%
Alex Gardner run for 1 yd to the FlaIn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-3
18.5%
Alex McGough pass complete to Alex Gardner for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaIn 38Similar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 13
OWN 38
-1
17.4%
Alex Gardner run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaIn 37Similar
Q3 12:45
3RD & 14
OWN 37
-5
16.6%
Alex McGough sacked by Neville Hewitt for a loss of 5 yards to the FlaIn 32Similar
Q3 10:55
4TH & 19
OWN 32
+1
16.5%
Jose Laphitzondo punt for 36 yds , Tommy Shuler returns for 1 yd to the Marsh 33 Tommy Shuler fumbled, recovered by Marsh Tommy ShulerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 14FG
6 plays · 49 yds · 1:5084% → 85%
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+18
16.3%
Rakeem Cato run for 18 yds to the FlaIn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+23
15.2%
Devon Johnson run for 23 yds to the FlaIn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
15.0%
Devon Johnson run for 2 yds to the FlaIn 24Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+6
15.1%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Devon Johnson for 6 yds to the FlaIn 18Similar
Q3 9:30
3RD & 2
OPP 18
0
15.7%
Rakeem Cato pass incomplete to Angelo Jean-LouisSimilar
Q3 9:05
4TH & 2
OPP 18
+35
15.0%
Justin Haig 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 15PUNT
12 plays · 26 yds · 4:2714% → 14%
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
14.4%
Alex McGough pass complete to Akil Dan-Fodio for 3 yds to the FlaIn 23Similar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+1
14.5%
Alex Gardner run for 1 yd to the FlaIn 24Similar
Q3 8:15
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+7
14.0%
Alex McGough pass complete to Jonnu Smith for 7 yds to the FlaIn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
15.2%
Alex Gardner run for no gain to the FlaIn 31Similar
Q3 6:55
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
15.1%
Alex McGough pass incomplete to Akil Dan-FodioSimilar
Q3 6:45
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+10
14.2%
Alex McGough pass complete to Akil Dan-Fodio for 10 yds to the FlaIn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
15.2%
FLORIDA INTL Penalty, Substitution Infraction (NA) to the FlaIn 36Similar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 15
OWN 36
+3
14.2%
Alex Gardner run for 3 yds to the FlaIn 39Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 12
OWN 39
+7
14.8%
Alex McGough pass complete to Jonnu Smith for 7 yds to the FlaIn 46Similar
Q3 5:30
3RD & 5
OWN 46
0
15.0%
Alex McGough pass incomplete to De'Andre JasperSimilar
Q3 4:38
4TH & 5
OWN 46
0
14.0%
Jose Laphitzondo punt for 23 yds, downed at the Marsh 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 16TD
7 plays · 69 yds · 2:1786% → 95%
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
14.0%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Deon-Tay McManus for 8 yds to the Marsh 39Similar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+5
13.2%
Rakeem Cato run for 5 yds to the Marsh 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
13.0%
Rakeem Cato pass incomplete to Hyleck FosterSimilar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 10
OWN 44
-5
13.2%
MARSHALL Penalty, False Start (Deon-Tay McManus) to the Marsh 39Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 15
OWN 39
+6
13.9%
Devon Johnson run for 6 yds to the Marsh 45Similar
Q3 3:15
3RD & 9
OWN 45
+9
13.6%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Craig Wilkins for 9 yds to the FlaIn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+46
5.2%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Devon Johnson for 46 yds for a TD, (Justin Haig KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 17INT
9 plays · 45 yds · 2:328% → 8%
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+9
7.9%
Alex Gardner run for 9 yds to the FlaIn 23Similar
Q3 1:45
2ND & 1
OWN 23
+2
8.3%
Alex Gardner run for 2 yds to the FlaIn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
7.8%
Alex McGough run for 3 yds to the FlaIn 28Similar
Q3 0:45
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
7.3%
Alex McGough pass incomplete to Fred PorterSimilar
Q3 0:35
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+27
7.1%
Alex McGough pass complete to Akil Dan-Fodio for 27 yds to the Marsh 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
8.2%
Alex McGough run for 5 yds to the Marsh 40Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 40
-1
8.7%
Alex Gardner run for a loss of 1 yard to the Marsh 41Similar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+27
8.1%
Alex McGough pass intercepted Jarquez Samuel return for 27 yds to the FlaIn 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 18TD
1 play · 27 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
1.5%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Devon Johnson for 27 yds for a TD, (Justin Haig KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 19INT TD
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:062% → 0%
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
2.1%
Alex McGough run for 1 yd to the FlaIn 26Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
1.9%
Alex Gardner run for no gain to the FlaIn 26Similar
Q4 13:34
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+30
0.4%
Alex McGough pass intercepted for a TD Corey Tindal return for 30 yds for a TD, (Justin Haig KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 27 yds · 1:501% → 0%
Q4 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+19
0.5%
Alex Gardner run for 19 yds to the FlaIn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
0.4%
Anthon Samuel run for 7 yds to the FlaIn 42Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+1
0.3%
Anthon Samuel run for 1 yd to the FlaIn 43Similar
Q4 12:05
3RD & 2
OWN 43
0
0.3%
Alex McGough pass incomplete to T.J. LowderSimilar
Q4 11:44
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
0.3%
Jose Laphitzondo punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Marsh 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 21TD
7 plays · 81 yds · 3:37100% → 100%
Q4 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
0.4%
Steward Butler run for 2 yds to the Marsh 21Similar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+4
0.4%
Steward Butler run for 4 yds to the Marsh 25Similar
Q4 10:30
3RD & 4
OWN 25
+7
0.4%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Eric Frohnapfel for 7 yds to the Marsh 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
0.3%
Steward Butler run for 5 yds to the Marsh 37Similar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+7
0.3%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Deon-Tay McManus for 7 yds to the Marsh 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
0.3%
MARSHALL Penalty, False Start (NA) to the Marsh 39Similar
Q4 8:07
1ST & 15
OWN 39
+61
0.2%
Steward Butler run for 61 yds for a TD, (Nick Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 22TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 6:170% → 0%
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
0.2%
Anthon Samuel run for 6 yds to the FlaIn 31Similar
Q4 7:45
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
0.1%
E.J. Hilliard pass complete to De'Andre Jasper for 5 yds to the FlaIn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
0.2%
Anthon Samuel run for 8 yds to the FlaIn 44Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+13
0.1%
E.J. Hilliard pass complete to Clinton Taylor for 13 yds to the Marsh 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
0.2%
Anthon Samuel run for 3 yds to the Marsh 40Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+6
0.1%
E.J. Hilliard run for 6 yds to the Marsh 34Similar
Q4 5:15
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+2
0.2%
E.J. Hilliard run for 2 yds to the Marsh 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
0.2%
Napoleon Maxwell run for 1 yd to the Marsh 31Similar
Q4 4:15
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+10
0.1%
E.J. Hilliard pass complete to Clinton Taylor for 10 yds to the Marsh 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
0.1%
E.J. Hilliard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+4
0.1%
Napoleon Maxwell run for 4 yds to the Marsh 17Similar
Q4 2:45
3RD & 6
OPP 17
+11
0.1%
E.J. Hilliard run for 11 yds to the Marsh 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
0.1%
E.J. Hilliard run for 2 yds to the Marsh 4Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
0.1%
E.J. Hilliard pass complete to Clinton Taylor for 4 yds for a TD, (Austin Taylor MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 23END OF GAME
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:50100% → 100%
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
0.1%
Steward Butler run for 2 yds to the Marsh 31Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+2
0.1%
Steward Butler run for 2 yds to the Marsh 33Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+5
0.1%
Gunnar Holcombe run for 5 yds to the Marsh 38 Justin HuntSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:21
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Devon Johnson for 46 yds for a TD, (Justin Haig KICK)
-8.4
TD · Q4 14:40
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Devon Johnson for 27 yds for a TD, (Justin Haig KICK)
-6.6
TD · Q2 5:32
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Angelo Jean-Louis for 13 yds for a TD, (Justin Haig KICK)
-4.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com