Try the model
FAU

Florida Atlantic 16 at Marshall 35

MRSH
2014 · Week 9 · Oct 25, 2014 · Joan C. Edwards Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MRSH
modelMRSH aheadFAU aheadconfidence bandkey playMRSH scoreFAU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:36 · Tyler Williams punt for 47 yds, fair catch by D'Joun Smith at the FlAtl 22
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+46.0+23.00−23.0−46.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 91Pregame prior+30.8Home team on offense−1.5Score differential−1.2Garbage-time factor−0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 6:35: Greg Joseph 40 yd FG GOOD — FAU win probability +2.4 pts (now 18%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:07: Devon Johnson run for 62 yds for a TD, (Justin Haig KICK) — MRSH win probability +6.6 pts (now 90%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 2:06: Greg Joseph 24 yd FG GOOD — FAU win probability +2.6 pts (now 17%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:09: Rakeem Cato pass complete to Tommy Shuler for 21 yds for a TD, (Justin Haig KICK) — MRSH win probability +11.0 pts (now 87%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:55: Devon Johnson run for 66 yds for a TD, (Justin Haig KICK) — MRSH win probability +11.5 pts (now 93%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MRSH made the numbers' call on 3 of 7FAU made the numbers' call on 8 of 12
  1. Q1 8:52FAU 4th & 3 at MRSH 13, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.7%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.7%−<0.1
    85% to make
    Punt
    6.3%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:12FAU 4th & 3 at FAU 46, down 4
    Close callPunted · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:55MRSH 4th & 2 at FAU 16, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 91.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.9%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.8%−0.1
    81% to make
    Punt
    91.0%−0.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:21MRSH 4th & 10 at MRSH 14, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.5%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:40FAU 4th & 1 at MRSH 42, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    13.6%−1.5
    30% to make
    Punt
    13.9%−1.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:35FAU 4th & 8 at MRSH 23, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.1%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.3%
    70% to make
    Punt
    12.6%−2.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:06FAU 4th & 7 at MRSH 7, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.9%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    11.1%−3.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:36MRSH 4th & 4 at MRSH 31, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.2%−0.5
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:19FAU 4th & 8 at FAU 36, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.5%−1.0
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:13MRSH 4th & 1 at MRSH 33, down 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 78.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.6%−1.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:20FAU 4th & 12 at FAU 19, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.6%−2.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:44MRSH 4th & 2 at FAU 48, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    77.7%−1.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:57FAU 4th & 6 at MRSH 49, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.3%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.7%
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:10MRSH 4th & 2 at MRSH 17, down 2
    Close callPunted · 72.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.9%−0.9
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:03FAU 4th & 11 at FAU 48, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.4%−2.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:55FAU 4th & 3 at MRSH 6, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.9%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    21.6%−1.3
    91% to make
    Punt
    9.9%−13.0
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:13FAU 4th & 4 at MRSH 46, down 12
    Close callPunted · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    6.1%−1.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    6.6%−0.7
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:55MRSH 4th & 1 at MRSH 36, up 12
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 94.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.9%−1.0
    average punt
  19. Q4 5:51FAU 4th & 8 at MRSH 32, down 12
    Close callWent for it · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.3%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    5.7%
    51% to make
    Punt
    4.6%−1.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MRSH made the numbers' call on 4 of 5FAU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 8:34MRSH Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:36FAU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:07MRSH Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:09MRSH Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:55MRSH Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:51MRSH Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FAUDrive 1FG
14 plays · 56 yds · 5:484% → 6%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
95.6%
Tony Moore run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 34Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+3
95.5%
Greg Howell run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 37Similar
Q1 13:33
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+13
95.4%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Kalib Woods for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
50
0
95.3%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to Lucky WhiteheadSimilar
Q1 12:48
2ND & 10
50
+3
95.2%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Jenson Stoshak for 3 yds to the Marsh 47Similar
Q1 12:00
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+5
95.0%
MARSHALL Penalty, Defensive Offside (NA) to the Marsh 42Similar
Q1 11:38
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+5
94.9%
Tony Moore run for 5 yds to the Marsh 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
94.8%
Tony Moore run for 5 yds to the Marsh 32Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+12
94.7%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Lucky Whitehead for 12 yds to the Marsh 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
94.7%
Tony Moore run for 2 yds to the Marsh 18Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+4
94.5%
Tony Moore run for 4 yds to the Marsh 14Similar
Q1 9:30
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+1
94.4%
Greg Howell run for 1 yd to the Marsh 13Similar
Q1 8:52
4TH & 3
OPP 13
+30
94.2%
Greg Joseph 30 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 2TD
2 plays · 58 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+58
94.5%
Devon Johnson run for 58 yds for a TD, (Justin Haig KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:516% → 6%
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
94.3%
Jaquez Johnson run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 43Similar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+3
94.2%
Tony Moore run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 46Similar
Q1 7:20
3RD & 3
OWN 46
0
94.1%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to Lucky WhiteheadSimilar
Q1 7:12
4TH & 3
OWN 46
0
94.2%
Dalton Schomp punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Tommy Shuler at the Marsh 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 4MISSED FG
16 plays · 76 yds · 4:5094% → 93%
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+6
94.1%
Devon Johnson run for 6 yds to the Marsh 14Similar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 4
OWN 14
0
94.1%
Rakeem Cato pass incomplete to Angelo Jean-LouisSimilar
Q1 6:30
3RD & 4
OWN 14
+16
93.9%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Eric Frohnapfel for 16 yds to the Marsh 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
93.9%
Devon Johnson run for 4 yds to the Marsh 34Similar
Q1 5:39
2ND & 6
OWN 34
0
93.9%
Rakeem Cato pass incomplete to Tommy ShulerSimilar
Q1 5:22
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+16
93.7%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Eric Frohnapfel for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
50
+16
94.0%
Devon Johnson run for 16 yds to the FlAtl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-15
94.0%
MARSHALL Penalty, Illegal Block (Clint Van Horn) to the FlAtl 49Similar
Q1 4:10
1ST & 25
OPP 49
+15
93.6%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (D'Joun Smith) to the FlAtl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
93.8%
Steward Butler run for 8 yds to the FlAtl 26Similar
Q1 3:33
2ND & 2
OPP 26
0
93.7%
Rakeem Cato pass incomplete to Tommy ShulerSimilar
Q1 3:19
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+2
93.5%
Steward Butler run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
93.6%
Rakeem Cato pass incomplete to Angelo Jean-LouisSimilar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+7
93.5%
Steward Butler run for 7 yds to the FlAtl 17Similar
Q1 2:11
3RD & 3
OPP 17
+1
93.2%
Steward Butler run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 16Similar
Q1 1:55
4TH & 2
OPP 16
+33
93.0%
Justin Haig 33 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 5TD
15 plays · 80 yds · 5:097% → 12%
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
92.8%
Greg Howell run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 26Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+5
92.7%
Greg Howell run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
92.5%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Lucky Whitehead for 6 yds to the FlAtl 37Similar
Q1 0:45
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+7
92.3%
Jaquez Johnson run for 7 yds to the FlAtl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
92.0%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Derek Moise for 9 yds to the Marsh 47Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+6
91.7%
Greg Howell run for 6 yds to the Marsh 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
91.6%
Lucky Whitehead run for 4 yds to the Marsh 37Similar
Q2 13:58
2ND & 6
OPP 37
0
91.4%
Jaquez Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:43
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+9
91.5%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Lucky Whitehead for 9 yds to the Marsh 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
91.0%
Martese Jackson run for 7 yds to the Marsh 21Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 3
OPP 21
+1
90.9%
Martese Jackson run for 1 yd to the Marsh 20Similar
Q2 12:05
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+4
90.5%
Jaquez Johnson run for 4 yds to the Marsh 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
90.1%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to Lucky WhiteheadSimilar
Q2 11:36
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+16
88.1%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Alex Deleon for 16 yds for a TD, (Greg Joseph KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:3989% → 87%
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
88.8%
Devon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Marsh 17Similar
Q2 10:28
2ND & 7
OWN 17
0
88.5%
Devon Johnson run for no gain to the Marsh 17Similar
Q2 9:45
3RD & 7
OWN 17
-3
87.6%
Rakeem Cato sacked by Joe Henry for a loss of 3 yards to the Marsh 14Similar
Q2 9:21
4TH & 10
OWN 14
0
87.1%
Tyler Williams punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Lucky Whitehead at the FlAtl 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 7FG
11 plays · 38 yds · 2:3213% → 18%
Q2 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
87.0%
Greg Howell run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 44Similar
Q2 8:59
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+5
86.9%
Greg Howell run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
86.5%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to Alex DeleonSimilar
Q2 8:20
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+7
86.4%
Greg Howell run for 7 yds to the Marsh 44Similar
Q2 7:50
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+2
85.5%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Lucky Whitehead for 2 yds to the Marsh 42Similar
Q2 7:40
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+2
85.9%
Jaquez Johnson run for 2 yds to the Marsh 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
85.1%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete for a 1ST down MARSHALL Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Darryl Roberts) to the Marsh 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
84.2%
Greg Howell run for 2 yds to the Marsh 23Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 8
OPP 23
0
83.8%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to Kalib WoodsSimilar
Q2 6:40
3RD & 8
OPP 23
0
84.5%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to Lucky WhiteheadSimilar
Q2 6:35
4TH & 8
OPP 23
+40
82.1%
Greg Joseph 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 8TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:1583% → 90%
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
83.1%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Deon-Tay McManus for 13 yds to the Marsh 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+62
89.7%
Devon Johnson run for 62 yds for a TD, (Justin Haig KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 9FG
14 plays · 47 yds · 3:3913% → 17%
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
87.5%
Greg Howell run for no gain to the FlAtl 46Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+11
87.5%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to William Dukes for 11 yds to the Marsh 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
86.9%
Greg Howell run for 5 yds to the Marsh 38Similar
Q2 4:26
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+4
86.5%
Jaquez Johnson run for 4 yds to the Marsh 34Similar
Q2 4:12
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+3
86.4%
Greg Howell run for 3 yds to the Marsh 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
85.8%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to William DukesSimilar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+13
85.7%
Jaquez Johnson run for 13 yds to the Marsh 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+12
85.3%
Greg Howell run for 12 yds to the Marsh 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
84.9%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to William DukesSimilar
Q2 2:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
84.9%
Greg Howell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Marsh 7Similar
Q2 2:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
85.4%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to Nate TerrySimilar
Q2 2:06
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
82.8%
Greg Joseph 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:1884% → 83%
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
83.6%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Tommy Shuler for 4 yds to the Marsh 29Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-5
83.7%
MARSHALL Penalty, False Start (Chris Jasperse) to the Marsh 24Similar
Q2 1:47
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+7
83.3%
Rakeem Cato run for 7 yds to the Marsh 31Similar
Q2 1:42
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
83.1%
Rakeem Cato pass incomplete to Angelo Jean-LouisSimilar
Q2 1:36
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
82.7%
Tyler Williams punt for 47 yds, fair catch by D'Joun Smith at the FlAtl 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:1017% → 18%
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+12
82.6%
Greg Howell run for 12 yds to the FlAtl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
81.8%
Jaquez Johnson run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 37Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+3
81.3%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Kalib Woods for 3 yds to the FlAtl 40Similar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 4
OWN 40
-4
80.9%
Jaquez Johnson sacked by Neville Hewitt and Ra'Shawde Myers for a loss of 4 yards to the FlAtl 36Similar
Q2 0:19
4TH & 8
OWN 36
+6
82.4%
Dalton Schomp punt for 42 yds , Tommy Shuler returns for 6 yds to the Marsh 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 12END OF HALF
4 plays · 48 yds · 0:1381% → 82%
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
80.6%
Rakeem Cato pass incomplete to Angelo Jean-LouisSimilar
Q2 0:06
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+23
80.2%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Angelo Jean-Louis for 23 yds to the FlAtl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+25
81.7%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Deon-Tay McManus for 25 yds to the FlAtl 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2282% → 80%
Q3 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
82.1%
Devon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Marsh 27Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+6
82.0%
Devon Johnson run for 6 yds to the Marsh 33Similar
Q3 13:50
3RD & 1
OWN 33
0
82.1%
Devon Johnson run for no gain to the Marsh 33Similar
Q3 13:13
4TH & 1
OWN 33
+5
80.3%
Tyler Williams punt for 51 yds , Cre'von LeBlanc returns for 5 yds to the FlAtl 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:4021% → 20%
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-2
79.2%
Greg Howell run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlAtl 19 Greg Howell fumbled, forced by Jermaine Holmes, recovered by FlAtl Greg HowellSimilar
Q3 12:36
2ND & 12
OWN 19
0
79.3%
Jaquez Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:31
3RD & 12
OWN 19
0
80.0%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to Jenson StoshakSimilar
Q3 12:20
4TH & 12
OWN 19
+9
80.5%
Dalton Schomp punt for 46 yds , Tommy Shuler returns for 9 yds to the Marsh 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 15DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:2982% → 80%
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
81.8%
Rakeem Cato pass incomplete to Ryan YurachekSimilar
Q3 11:51
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+3
80.6%
Devon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Marsh 47Similar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+5
80.2%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Angelo Jean-Louis for 5 yds to the FlAtl 48Similar
Q3 10:44
4TH & 2
OPP 48
+1
79.7%
Devon Johnson run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:3325% → 24%
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
75.2%
Greg Howell run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 7
50
+1
74.4%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Lucky Whitehead for 1 yd to the Marsh 49Similar
Q3 9:18
3RD & 6
OPP 49
0
74.0%
Greg Howell run for no gain to the Marsh 49Similar
Q3 8:57
4TH & 6
OPP 49
0
75.6%
Ryan Rickel punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Tommy Shuler at the Marsh 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:4376% → 74%
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
76.4%
Rakeem Cato pass incomplete to Eric FrohnapfelSimilar
Q3 8:34
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+8
76.0%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Eric Frohnapfel for 8 yds to the Marsh 17Similar
Q3 8:20
3RD & 2
OWN 17
0
75.0%
Rakeem Cato pass incomplete to Angelo Jean-LouisSimilar
Q3 8:10
4TH & 2
OWN 17
0
74.3%
Tyler Williams punt for 48 yds, downed at the FlAtl 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:5426% → 28%
Q3 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
74.2%
Jay Warren run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 40Similar
Q3 7:17
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+1
71.9%
Jay Warren run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 41Similar
Q3 6:50
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+8
71.5%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Derek Moise for 8 yds to the FlAtl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
69.4%
Martese Jackson run for no gain to the FlAtl 49Similar
Q3 5:50
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-1
68.9%
Martese Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlAtl 48Similar
Q3 5:11
3RD & 11
OWN 48
0
69.9%
Jaquez Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:03
4TH & 11
OWN 48
+42
72.0%
Ryan Rickel punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Tommy Shuler at the MARSHALL 20 MARSHALL Penalty, Illegal Block (Antavis Rowe) to the Marsh 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 19TD
8 plays · 60 yds · 1:3672% → 87%
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
72.1%
Devon Johnson run for 2 yds to the Marsh 12Similar
Q3 4:25
2ND & 8
OWN 12
-15
71.6%
Cato, Rakeem pass incomplete to McManus, Deon-Tay, PENALTY MARSHALL pass interference (Lang, Tiquan) 15 yards to the MARSHALL-3, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MARSHALL. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+39
71.3%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Deon-Tay McManus for 39 yds to the FlAtl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
76.1%
Devon Johnson run for 9 yds to the FlAtl 25Similar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 1
OPP 25
+4
75.7%
Devon Johnson run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
75.7%
Rakeem Cato pass incomplete to Tommy ShulerSimilar
Q3 3:09
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+21
86.7%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Tommy Shuler for 21 yds for a TD, (Justin Haig KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 20DOWNS
9 plays · 60 yds · 2:5020% → 23%
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+19
80.3%
Jaquez Johnson run for 19 yds to the Marsh 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
77.5%
Greg Howell run for 9 yds to the Marsh 38Similar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 1
OPP 38
+5
76.7%
Jaquez Johnson run for 5 yds to the Marsh 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+20
75.6%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Lucky Whitehead for 20 yds to the Marsh 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
74.7%
Greg Howell run for 6 yds to the Marsh 7Similar
Q3 0:45
2ND & 4
OPP 7
+3
74.2%
Jaquez Johnson run for 3 yds to the Marsh 4Similar
Q3 0:01
3RD & 1
OPP 4
-2
75.0%
Jaquez Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Marsh 6Similar
Q4 14:55
4TH & 3
OPP 6
0
76.8%
Jaquez Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 21TD
3 plays · 94 yds · 0:4081% → 93%
Q4 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+8
81.4%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Tommy Shuler for 8 yds to the Marsh 14Similar
Q4 14:20
2ND & 2
OWN 14
+20
82.0%
Rakeem Cato run for 20 yds to the Marsh 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+66
93.4%
Devon Johnson run for 66 yds for a TD, (Justin Haig KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 32 yds · 2:178% → 8%
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
92.5%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Lucky Whitehead for 6 yds to the FlAtl 28Similar
Q4 13:06
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+6
91.4%
Jaquez Johnson run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+14
91.4%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Alex Deleon for 14 yds to the FlAtl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
90.7%
Jaquez Johnson run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:56
2ND & 8
50
0
90.9%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to Kalib WoodsSimilar
Q4 11:33
3RD & 8
50
+4
91.2%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Lucky Whitehead for 4 yds to the Marsh 46Similar
Q4 11:13
4TH & 4
OPP 46
0
92.1%
Ryan Rickel punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Tommy Shuler at the Marsh 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:5795% → 95%
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
94.8%
Devon Johnson run for 8 yds to the Marsh 23Similar
Q4 10:23
2ND & 1
OWN 23
+4
95.1%
Devon Johnson run for 4 yds to the Marsh 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
95.2%
Rakeem Cato pass incomplete to Deon-Tay McManusSimilar
Q4 9:54
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+6
94.9%
Steward Butler run for 6 yds to the Marsh 33Similar
Q4 9:35
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+3
95.2%
Rakeem Cato run for 3 yds to the Marsh 36Similar
Q4 8:55
4TH & 1
OWN 36
0
95.0%
Tyler Williams punt for 64 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 24DOWNS
10 plays · 42 yds · 2:486% → 7%
Q4 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
93.8%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Lucky Whitehead for 3 yds to the FlAtl 23Similar
Q4 8:06
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+3
94.1%
Greg Howell run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 26Similar
Q4 7:33
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+9
93.7%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Lucky Whitehead for 9 yds to the FlAtl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
93.3%
Jaquez Johnson run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 36Similar
Q4 6:50
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+30
93.3%
Jaquez Johnson pass complete to Lucky Whitehead for 30 yds to the Marsh 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
92.1%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to Lucky WhiteheadSimilar
Q4 6:18
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+2
92.5%
Greg Howell run for 2 yds to the Marsh 32Similar
Q4 5:56
3RD & 8
OPP 32
0
93.0%
Jaquez Johnson pass incomplete to Martese JacksonSimilar
Q4 5:51
4TH & 8
OPP 32
-6
93.5%
Jaquez Johnson sacked by Arnold Blackmon for a loss of 6 yards to the Marsh 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 25TD
13 plays · 62 yds · 4:4297% → 100%
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
97.0%
Rakeem Cato run for 1 yd to the Marsh 39Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+6
97.0%
Devon Johnson run for 6 yds to the Marsh 45Similar
Q4 4:28
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+4
97.1%
Rakeem Cato run for 4 yds to the Marsh 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
97.9%
Devon Johnson run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 49Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+1
98.0%
Devon Johnson run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 48Similar
Q4 3:05
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+7
98.4%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Eric Frohnapfel for 7 yds to the FlAtl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-1
98.4%
Devon Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlAtl 42Similar
Q4 1:43
2ND & 11
OPP 42
+33
98.6%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Deon-Tay McManus for 33 yds to the FlAtl 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
98.7%
Devon Johnson run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 7Similar
Q4 0:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.8%
Devon Johnson run for 7 yds for a TD, (Justin Haig KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 26END OF GAME
3 plays · 17 yds · 0:291% → 1%
Q4 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
99.4%
Tony Moore run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 38Similar
Q4 0:10
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+13
99.4%
Tony Moore run for 13 yds to the Marsh 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:55
Devon Johnson run for 66 yds for a TD, (Justin Haig KICK)
+11.5
TD · Q3 3:09
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Tommy Shuler for 21 yds for a TD, (Justin Haig KICK)
+11
TD · Q2 6:07
Devon Johnson run for 62 yds for a TD, (Justin Haig KICK)
+6.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com