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MRSH

Marshall 26 at Notre Dame 21

ND
2022 · Week 2 · Sep 10, 2022 · Notre Dame Stadium
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Win probability · ND
modelND aheadMRSH aheadconfidence bandkey playND scoreMRSH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 10:49 · John McConnell punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Brandon Joseph at the NDame 41
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+40.0+20.00−20.0−40.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 13Pregame prior+37.9Home team on offense−0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential−0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:00: Tyler Buchner run for 1 yd for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK) — ND win probability +8.1 pts (now 85%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 14:57: Tyler Buchner run for 1 yd for a TD, (T. Buchner Run For Two-point Conversion) — ND win probability +21.0 pts (now 79%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 5:16: Henry Colombi pass complete to Devin Miller for 3 yds for a TD, (Rece Verhoff KICK) — MRSH win probability +38.9 pts (now 75%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 4:35: Tyler Buchner pass intercepted for a TD Steven Gilmore return for 37 yds for a TD, (Rece Verhoff KICK) — MRSH win probability +25.3 pts (now 89%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:14: Drew Pyne pass complete to Michael Mayer for 5 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — ND win probability +11.3 pts (now 15%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ND made the numbers' call on 6 of 8MRSH made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 11:33ND 4th & 6 at MRSH 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 89.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    89.5%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    89.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:49MRSH 4th & 4 at MRSH 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.5%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:23ND 4th & 4 at MRSH 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    88.4%−0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    88.3%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:07MRSH 4th & 1 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.5%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:14ND 4th & 17 at ND 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.3%−0.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:34MRSH 4th & 3 at ND 41, up 6
    Close callPunted · 21.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    20.1%−0.9
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    20.4%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:10ND 4th & 12 at ND 27, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.4%−1.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:03MRSH 4th & 6 at MRSH 28, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.2%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:15MRSH 4th & 4 at ND 4, down 1
    Close callKicked a field goal · 21.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.9%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    17.0%−4.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:41MRSH 4th & 10 at MRSH 47, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.4%−1.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:04ND 4th & 1 at ND 48, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    68.4%−3.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:54MRSH 4th & 2 at ND 3, up 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.3%
    49% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.7%−3.6
    93% to make
    Punt
    18.8%−19.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:16MRSH 4th & 15 at MRSH 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.6%−4.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:55ND 4th & 1 at MRSH 48, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    74.1%−4.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:32ND 4th & 8 at MRSH 43, up 3
    Close callPunted · 77.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.3%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    73.9%−2.4
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    76.1%−0.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:56MRSH 4th & 6 at MRSH 23, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.2%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.5%
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:14ND 4th & 1 at MRSH 5, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.3%
    67% to convert
    Field goal
    4.4%−2.9
    92% to make
    Punt
    4.0%−3.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ND made the numbers' call on 2 of 3MRSH made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q2 14:18MRSH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    17.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:00ND Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 14:57ND Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    75.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    75.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 5:16MRSH Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.3%−0.5
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 4:35MRSH Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.1%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.2%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:14ND Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    11.5%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    11.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NDDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 3:2290% → 89%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
89.9%
Tyler Buchner pass complete to Braden Lenzy for 5 yds to the NDame 30Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
89.7%
Logan Diggs run for no gain to the NDame 30Similar
Q1 13:50
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+5
89.6%
Tyler Buchner pass complete to Lorenzo Styles for 5 yds to the NDame 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+16
89.5%
Tyler Buchner pass complete to Lorenzo Styles for 16 yds to the Marsh 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
89.4%
Tyler Buchner pass incomplete to Jayden ThomasSimilar
Q1 12:35
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-1
89.3%
Audric Estime run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:00
3RD & 11
50
+5
89.1%
Tyler Buchner run for 5 yds to the Marsh 45Similar
Q1 11:33
4TH & 6
OPP 45
0
89.0%
Jon Sot punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Talik Keaton at the Marsh 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:2611% → 11%
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
88.8%
Khalan Laborn run for 6 yds to the Marsh 16Similar
Q1 10:59
2ND & 4
OWN 16
0
88.7%
Henry Colombi pass incomplete to Talik KeatonSimilar
Q1 10:55
3RD & 4
OWN 16
0
88.8%
Henry Colombi pass incomplete to Talik KeatonSimilar
Q1 10:49
4TH & 4
OWN 16
0
88.8%
John McConnell punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Brandon Joseph at the NDame 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 3DOWNS
11 plays · 28 yds · 3:2089% → 88%
Q1 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
88.8%
Tyler Buchner pass incomplete to Braden LenzySimilar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+2
88.7%
Audric Estime run for 2 yds to the NDame 43Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+8
88.5%
Tyler Buchner pass complete to Jayden Thomas for 8 yds to the Marsh 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
88.7%
Estime, Audric rush for 7 yards to the MARSHALL42, PENALTY MARSHALL illegal shift 5 yards to the MARSHALL44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:20
1ST & 5
OPP 44
+4
88.6%
Audric Estime run for 4 yds to the Marsh 40Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+3
88.5%
Tyler Buchner run for 3 yds to the Marsh 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
88.2%
Audric Estime run for 5 yds to the Marsh 32Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 5
OPP 32
0
88.2%
Tyler Buchner pass incomplete to Michael MayerSimilar
Q1 7:45
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+1
88.0%
Audric Estime run for 1 yd to the Marsh 31Similar
Q1 7:23
4TH & 4
OPP 31
0
87.9%
Tyler Buchner pass incomplete to Braden LenzySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 4DOWNS
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:5613% → 13%
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
87.4%
Khalan Laborn run for 6 yds to the Marsh 37Similar
Q1 6:49
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+4
87.2%
Khalan Laborn run for 4 yds to the Marsh 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
87.0%
Khalan Laborn run for 3 yds to the Marsh 44Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+2
86.9%
Ethan Payne run for 2 yds to the Marsh 46Similar
Q1 5:30
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+4
86.6%
Ethan Payne run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:07
4TH & 1
50
0
86.6%
Khalan Laborn run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 1:3987% → 86%
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
50
0
87.4%
Logan Diggs run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 10
50
+1
87.2%
Logan Diggs run for 1 yd to the Marsh 49Similar
Q1 3:55
3RD & 9
OPP 49
-8
86.8%
Tyler Buchner sacked by Jace Bobo and Micah Abraham for a loss of 8 yards to the NDame 43Similar
Q1 3:14
4TH & 17
OWN 43
0
86.1%
Jon Sot punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Marsh 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 6TD
11 plays · 79 yds · 3:3114% → 19%
Q1 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
86.0%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Talik Keaton for 6 yds to the Marsh 27Similar
Q1 2:25
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+4
85.5%
Caleb McMillan run for 4 yds to the Marsh 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+18
85.4%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Caleb McMillan for 18 yds to the Marsh 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
84.7%
Khalan Laborn run for 6 yds to the NDame 45Similar
Q1 1:05
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+14
84.4%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Charles Montgomery for 14 yds to the NDame 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-5
84.0%
Colombi, Henry pass complete to Gammage, Corey for 31 yards to the NOTREDAME0, PENALTY MARSHALL illegal motion 5 yards to the NOTREDAME36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:30
1ST & 15
OPP 36
+19
84.3%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Jayden Harrison for 19 yds to the NDame 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
83.7%
Khalan Laborn run for 6 yds to the NDame 11Similar
Q1 0:01
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+7
83.6%
Khalan Laborn run for 7 yds to the NDame 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
83.5%
Khalan Laborn run for no gain to the NDame 4Similar
Q2 14:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
81.0%
Khalan Laborn run for 4 yds for a TD, (Rece Verhoff PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 7INT
4 plays · 27 yds · 0:5782% → 83%
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+22
82.3%
Lorenzo Styles run for 22 yds to the Marsh 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
83.0%
Tyler Buchner pass complete to Michael Mayer for 5 yds to the Marsh 40Similar
Q2 12:48
2ND & 5
OPP 40
-14
82.8%
Tyler Buchner pass intercepted Micah Abraham return for 14 yds to the NDame 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:5621% → 22%
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
79.3%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Caleb McMillan for 6 yds to the NDame 42Similar
Q2 11:55
2ND & 4
OPP 42
-1
78.6%
Ethan Payne run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 43Similar
Q2 11:10
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+2
78.2%
Henry Colombi run for 2 yds to the NDame 41Similar
Q2 10:34
4TH & 3
OPP 41
0
78.3%
John McConnell punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Brandon Joseph at the NDame 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 2:1480% → 76%
Q2 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-5
79.5%
Tyler Buchner run for 1 yd to the NDame 11 NOTRE DAME Penalty, Illegal Block (-6 Yards) to the NDame 5Similar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 15
OWN 6
+3
79.2%
Logan Diggs run for 3 yds to the NDame 9Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 12
OWN 9
+20
78.5%
Tyler Buchner pass complete to Lorenzo Styles for 20 yds to the NDame 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-5
78.8%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NDame 24Similar
Q2 8:52
1ST & 15
OWN 24
0
78.2%
Tyler Buchner pass incomplete to Braden LenzySimilar
Q2 8:37
2ND & 15
OWN 24
+3
77.9%
Logan Diggs run for 3 yds to the NDame 27Similar
Q2 8:20
3RD & 12
OWN 27
0
77.2%
Tyler Buchner pass incomplete to Lorenzo StylesSimilar
Q2 8:10
4TH & 12
OWN 27
0
76.2%
Jon Sot punt for 61 yds , Talik Keaton returns for no gain to the Marsh 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:4724% → 26%
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+7
76.1%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Shadeed Ahmed for 7 yds to the Marsh 16Similar
Q2 7:25
2ND & 3
OWN 16
+8
75.0%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Corey Gammage for 8 yds to the Marsh 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-3
74.6%
Henry Colombi sacked by Jack Kiser for a loss of 3 yards to the Marsh 21Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 13
OWN 21
+5
74.4%
Khalan Laborn run for 5 yds to the Marsh 26Similar
Q2 5:35
3RD & 8
OWN 26
+2
73.9%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Jayden Harrison for 2 yds to the Marsh 28Similar
Q2 5:03
4TH & 6
OWN 28
0
73.9%
John McConnell punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NDame 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 11TD
6 plays · 56 yds · 1:4576% → 85%
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+13
75.8%
Tyler Buchner run for 13 yds to the Marsh 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
76.2%
Tyler Buchner run for 7 yds to the Marsh 36Similar
Q2 4:06
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+5
76.1%
MARSHALL Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Marsh 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+18
76.7%
Tyler Buchner pass complete to Michael Mayer for 18 yds to the Marsh 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+12
76.4%
Tyler Buchner pass complete to Michael Mayer for 12 yds to the Marsh 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
84.5%
Tyler Buchner run for 1 yd for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 12FG
16 plays · 74 yds · 2:3719% → 28%
Q2 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
81.2%
Khalan Laborn run for 2 yds to the Marsh 24Similar
Q2 2:44
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+7
80.8%
Henry Colombi run for 7 yds to the Marsh 31Similar
Q2 2:25
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+6
80.2%
Khalan Laborn run for 6 yds to the Marsh 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+17
79.8%
Khalan Laborn run for 2 yds to the NDame 39 for a 1ST down NOTRE DAME Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the NDame 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
77.9%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Corey Gammage for 11 yds to the NDame 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+11
76.6%
Khalan Laborn run for 11 yds to the NDame 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
76.2%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Corey Gammage for 3 yds to the NDame 21Similar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+17
76.0%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Jayden Harrison for 17 yds to the NDame 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
75.8%
Khalan Laborn run for no gain to the NDame 4Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
75.9%
Khalan Laborn run for no gain to the NDame 4Similar
Q2 0:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
77.4%
Henry Colombi pass incomplete to Corey GammageSimilar
Q2 0:15
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
72.3%
Rece Verhoff 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 13END OF HALF
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:0476% → 75%
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
75.6%
Tyler Buchner pass incomplete to Braden LenzySimilar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+7
75.1%
Chris Tyree run for 7 yds to the NDame 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 3:0427% → 28%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
73.0%
Khalan Laborn run for 12 yds to the Marsh 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
71.7%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Charles Montgomery for a loss of 1 yard to the Marsh 36Similar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+11
71.8%
Henry Colombi run for 11 yds to the Marsh 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-6
69.6%
Henry Colombi sacked by Isaiah Foskey for a loss of 6 yards to the Marsh 41Similar
Q3 12:22
2ND & 16
OWN 41
+6
70.6%
Henry Colombi run for 6 yds to the Marsh 47Similar
Q3 11:47
3RD & 10
OWN 47
0
70.1%
Henry Colombi pass incomplete to Shadeed AhmedSimilar
Q3 11:41
4TH & 10
OWN 47
0
72.1%
John McConnell punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Brandon Joseph at the NDame 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 15DOWNS
9 plays · 36 yds · 3:2172% → 71%
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
71.8%
Audric Estime run for 1 yd to the NDame 13Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 9
OWN 13
+15
71.3%
Audric Estime run for 15 yds to the NDame 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
71.4%
Tyler Buchner pass complete to Kevin Bauman for 4 yds to the NDame 32Similar
Q3 10:09
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+5
71.5%
Audric Estime run for 5 yds to the NDame 37Similar
Q3 9:30
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+2
72.1%
Tyler Buchner run for 2 yds to the NDame 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
71.4%
Tyler Buchner pass complete to Lorenzo Styles for 8 yds to the NDame 47Similar
Q3 8:52
2ND & 2
OWN 47
0
73.1%
Tyler Buchner pass incomplete to Lorenzo StylesSimilar
Q3 8:31
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+1
72.0%
Audric Estime run for 1 yd to the NDame 48Similar
Q3 8:04
4TH & 1
OWN 48
0
70.8%
Audric Estime run for no gain to the NDame 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 16FG
9 plays · 46 yds · 3:5135% → 48%
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-4
64.7%
Jayden Harrison run for a loss of 4 yards to the Marsh 47Similar
Q3 7:15
2ND & 14
OWN 47
+30
66.4%
Talik Keaton run for 30 yds to the NDame 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
62.0%
Khalan Laborn run for 4 yds to the NDame 19Similar
Q3 6:14
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+5
60.5%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Khalan Laborn for 5 yds to the NDame 14Similar
Q3 5:57
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+3
61.7%
Khalan Laborn run for 3 yds to the NDame 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+7
59.5%
Cam Fancher run for 7 yds to the NDame 4Similar
Q3 4:54
2ND & 3
OPP 4
-3
58.6%
Ethan Payne run for a loss of 3 yards to the NDame 7Similar
Q3 4:18
3RD & 6
OPP 7
+4
59.5%
Cam Fancher run for 4 yds to the NDame 3Similar
Q3 3:54
4TH & 2
OPP 3
+20
52.1%
Rece Verhoff 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 17TD
10 plays · 66 yds · 3:4056% → 79%
Q3 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
56.2%
Logan Diggs run for no gain to the NDame 25Similar
Q3 2:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
55.1%
Tyler Buchner run for 2 yds to the NDame 27Similar
Q3 2:24
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
52.8%
Buchner, Tyler pass incomplete to Mayer, Michael, PENALTY MARSHALL pass interference (Green-McKnight, Jadarius) 0 yards to the NOTREDAME36, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME.Similar
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+30
55.5%
Tyler Buchner pass complete to Michael Mayer for 30 yds to the Marsh 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
60.6%
Tyler Buchner pass complete to Chris Tyree for 9 yds to the Marsh 25Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 1
OPP 25
+6
60.1%
Tyler Buchner run for 6 yds to the Marsh 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+18
58.4%
Tyler Buchner pass complete to Kevin Bauman for 18 yds to the Marsh 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
58.3%
Logan Diggs run for no gain to the Marsh 1Similar
Q4 14:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
79.2%
Tyler Buchner run for 1 yd for a TD, (T. Buchner Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:2725% → 22%
Q4 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
75.1%
Khalan Laborn run for 11 yds to the Marsh 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
74.7%
Khalan Laborn run for 3 yds to the Marsh 39Similar
Q4 14:05
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
73.6%
Henry Colombi pass incomplete to Charles MontgomerySimilar
Q4 13:45
3RD & 7
OWN 39
-8
75.0%
Henry Colombi sacked by Ramon Henderson and Justin Ademilola for a loss of 8 yards to the Marsh 31Similar
Q4 13:16
4TH & 15
OWN 31
+15
77.7%
John McConnell punt for 41 yds , Brandon Joseph returns for 15 yds to the NDame 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 19PUNT
11 plays · 14 yds · 2:2280% → 77%
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
79.6%
Tyler Buchner pass complete to Lorenzo Styles for 1 yd to the NDame 44Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 9
OWN 44
0
79.4%
Tyler Buchner pass incomplete to Michael MayerSimilar
Q4 12:20
3RD & 9
OWN 44
+8
77.3%
Tyler Buchner pass complete to Lorenzo Styles for 8 yds to the Marsh 48Similar
Q4 11:55
4TH & 1
OPP 48
+3
79.4%
Chris Tyree run for 3 yds to the Marsh 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
81.3%
Tyler Buchner pass incomplete to Lorenzo StylesSimilar
Q4 11:24
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+7
81.4%
Chris Tyree run for 7 yds to the Marsh 38Similar
Q4 11:04
3RD & 3
OPP 38
-5
81.2%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Marsh 43Similar
Q4 10:38
3RD & 8
OPP 43
0
79.7%
Tyler Buchner pass incomplete to Lorenzo StylesSimilar
Q4 10:32
4TH & 8
OPP 43
0
77.0%
Jon Sot punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Talik Keaton at the Marsh 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 20TD
11 plays · 94 yds · 5:0325% → 75%
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+2
75.3%
Khalan Laborn run for 2 yds to the Marsh 8Similar
Q4 9:53
2ND & 8
OWN 8
-1
75.2%
Khalan Laborn run for a loss of 1 yard to the Marsh 7Similar
Q4 9:15
3RD & 9
OWN 7
+11
76.5%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Devin Miller for 11 yds to the Marsh 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+8
73.6%
Khalan Laborn run for 8 yds to the Marsh 26Similar
Q4 8:17
2ND & 2
OWN 26
+5
71.4%
Khalan Laborn run for 5 yds to the Marsh 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+16
72.1%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Talik Keaton for 16 yds to the Marsh 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
68.3%
Ethan Payne run for 5 yds to the NDame 48Similar
Q4 6:55
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+42
67.0%
Khalan Laborn run for 42 yds to the NDame 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
63.9%
Cam Fancher run for 1 yd to the NDame 5Similar
Q4 5:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
63.6%
Khalan Laborn run for 2 yds to the NDame 3Similar
Q4 5:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
24.7%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Devin Miller for 3 yds for a TD, (Rece Verhoff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 21INT TD
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:3740% → 11%
Q4 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
40.0%
Tyler Buchner pass incomplete to Michael MayerSimilar
Q4 4:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
35.9%
Tyler Buchner run for 7 yds to the NDame 32Similar
Q4 4:35
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-37
10.6%
Tyler Buchner pass intercepted for a TD Steven Gilmore return for 37 yds for a TD, (Rece Verhoff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 22INT
8 plays · 53 yds · 1:2810% → 10%
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
9.8%
Buchner, Tyler pass incomplete to Styles, Lorenzo, PENALTY MARSHALL roughing passer 15 yards to the NOTREDAME40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME.Similar
Q4 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
11.2%
Tyler Buchner pass complete to Chris Tyree for 5 yds to the NDame 45Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+23
11.7%
Tyler Buchner pass complete to Michael Mayer for 23 yds to the Marsh 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
13.2%
Tyler Buchner pass complete to Michael Mayer for 6 yds to the Marsh 26Similar
Q4 3:21
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+4
10.5%
Tyler Buchner run for 4 yds to the Marsh 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
10.3%
Drew Pyne pass incomplete to Jayden ThomasSimilar
Q4 3:01
2ND & 10
OPP 22
-4
9.8%
Drew Pyne pass intercepted Owen Porter return for 4 yds to the Marsh 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 1:0194% → 97%
Q4 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
5.9%
Khalan Laborn run for no gain to the Marsh 19Similar
Q4 2:53
2ND & 10
OWN 19
-1
5.6%
Khalan Laborn run for a loss of 1 yard to the Marsh 18Similar
Q4 2:37
3RD & 11
OWN 18
+5
5.7%
Khalan Laborn run for 5 yds to the Marsh 23Similar
Q4 1:56
4TH & 6
OWN 23
0
3.0%
John McConnell punt blocked by Bo Bauer blocked by Bo BauerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 24TD
9 plays · 32 yds · 1:215% → 15%
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-6
4.6%
Drew Pyne sacked by Sam Burton for a loss of 6 yards to the Marsh 38Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 16
OPP 38
+13
3.4%
Drew Pyne run for 13 yds to the Marsh 25Similar
Q4 1:14
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+11
3.8%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Lorenzo Styles for 11 yds to the Marsh 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
4.7%
MARSHALL Penalty, 12 Men on the Field (5 Yards) to the Marsh 9Similar
Q4 0:57
1ST & 5
OPP 9
0
4.6%
Drew Pyne pass incomplete to Michael MayerSimilar
Q4 0:42
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+4
4.5%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Michael Mayer for 4 yds to the Marsh 5Similar
Q4 0:24
3RD & 1
OPP 5
0
4.0%
Drew Pyne run for no gain to the Marsh 5Similar
Q4 0:14
4TH & 1
OPP 5
+5
15.3%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Michael Mayer for 5 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 25END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-2
2.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:16
Henry Colombi pass complete to Devin Miller for 3 yds for a TD, (Rece Verhoff KICK)
-38.9
TD · Q4 4:35
Tyler Buchner pass intercepted for a TD Steven Gilmore return for 37 yds for a TD, (Rece Verhoff KICK)
-25.3
TD · Q4 14:57
Tyler Buchner run for 1 yd for a TD, (T. Buchner Run For Two-point Conversion)
+21
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com