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Win probability · MRSH
modelMRSH aheadUL aheadconfidence bandkey playMRSH scoreUL score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 2:11 · Rece Verhoff punt for 31 yds, downed at the Marsh 49
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 4:09: Khalan Laborn run for 1 yd for a TD, (Rece Verhoff KICK) — MRSH win probability +7.6 pts (now 78%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:30: Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Dontae Fleming for 6 yds for a TD, (Kenneth Almendares KICK) — UL win probability +13.9 pts (now 43%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
- FG · Q3 4:44: Kenneth Almendares 33 yd FG GOOD — UL win probability +6.4 pts (now 55%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
- TD · Q4 9:59: Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Michael Jefferson for 32 yds for a TD, (Kenneth Almendares KICK) — UL win probability +16.4 pts (now 92%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
- TD · Q4 6:52: Khalan Laborn run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed) — MRSH win probability +11.4 pts (now 22%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
MRSH made the numbers' call on 9 of 10UL made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
- Q1 12:37UL 4th & 11 at UL 24, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 23.8% before the snapGo for it23.7%−0.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.9%average punt
- Q1 9:41MRSH 4th & 11 at MRSH 45, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 75.2% before the snapGo for it75.2%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call75.3%average punt
- Q1 7:03UL 4th & 12 at MRSH 25, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.4% before the snapGo for it25.3%−0.222% to convertField goalTheir call25.5%66% to makePunt24.5%−0.9average punt
- Q1 5:45MRSH 4th & 6 at MRSH 29, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.8% before the snapGo for it72.8%−0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call72.9%average punt
- Q1 3:00UL 4th & 4 at MRSH 45, up 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call27.8%48% to convertField goal27.2%−0.725% to makePunt27.6%−0.3average punt
- Q1 1:14MRSH 4th & 1 at UL 46, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call72.2%70% to convertField goal70.9%−1.323% to makePunt71.4%−0.8average punt
- Q2 13:59MRSH 4th & 1 at UL 28, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call71.4%71% to convertField goal70.5%−0.960% to makePunt68.4%−3.0average punt
- Q2 12:20MRSH 4th & 12 at UL 28, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.6% before the snapGo for it68.8%−0.723% to convertField goalTheir call69.5%60% to makePunt66.7%−2.8average punt
- Q2 9:35UL 4th & 8 at MRSH 46, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.8% before the snapGo for it31.5%−0.334% to convertField goal30.6%−1.223% to makePuntTheir call31.8%average punt
- Q2 2:51UL 4th & 10 at UL 25, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.9% before the snapGo for it25.0%−0.928% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call25.9%average punt
- Q2 0:10MRSH 4th & 2 at UL 46, up 4Close callPunted · 73.3% before the snapGo for it73.2%−0.157% to convertField goal73.3%23% to makePuntTheir call73.0%−0.3average punt
- Q3 11:32UL 4th & 1 at UL 49, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call30.0%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt28.0%−2.0average punt
- Q3 7:50MRSH 4th & 20 at MRSH 29, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.3% before the snapGo for it52.3%−4.59% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call56.8%average punt
- Q3 4:44UL 4th & 8 at MRSH 16, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.4% before the snapGo for it44.9%−1.732% to convertField goalTheir call46.6%81% to makePunt34.4%−12.2average punt
- Q3 2:11MRSH 4th & 14 at MRSH 18, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.2% before the snapGo for it39.6%−5.117% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call44.7%average punt
- Q3 0:00UL 4th & 6 at MRSH 35, up 6Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 62.4% before the snapGo for it63.5%40% to convertField goalTheir call62.4%−1.245% to makePunt60.6%−2.9average punt
- Q4 12:29MRSH 4th & 3 at UL 35, down 9Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call32.8%53% to convertField goal29.6%−3.245% to makePunt27.9%−4.9average punt
- Q4 4:27UL 4th & 5 at UL 30, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.6% before the snapGo for it86.9%−0.441% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call87.3%average punt
- Q4 3:27MRSH 4th & 5 at MRSH 40, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call9.6%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt9.5%−0.1average punt
- Q4 2:29UL 4th & 1 at MRSH 29, up 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call92.3%71% to convertField goal90.6%−1.758% to makePunt87.0%−5.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MRSH made the numbers' call on 1 of 2UL made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
- Q2 4:09MRSH Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call73.6%97% to makeGo for two73.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:30UL Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call41.1%97% to makeGo for two40.9%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 9:59UL Touchdown, up 15 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call90.8%−0.197% to makeGo for two91.0%45% to convert
- Q4 6:52MRSH Touchdown, down 10 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick16.5%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call15.5%−1.045% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartULDrive 1PUNT6 plays · -1 yds · 2:1820% → 20%
Q1 14:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-12
80.2%
Wooldridge, Ben pass complete to Jefferson, Michael for 25 yards to the 50 yardline, PENALTY ULLAFAYTTE pass interference (Jefferson, Michael) 12 yards to the ULLAFAYTTE13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 22
OWN 13
+12
80.1%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Pearse Migl for 12 yds to the LaLaf 25Similar
Q1 13:22
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-1
79.9%
Ben Wooldridge sacked by Eli Neal for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 24Similar
Q1 12:37
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
79.8%
Rhys Byrns punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Talik Keaton at the Marsh 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 2PUNT7 plays · 10 yds · 2:4880% → 79%
Q1 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
79.7%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Charles Montgomery for 9 yds to the Marsh 44Similar
Q1 11:18
2ND & 6
50
+2
79.7%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Charles Montgomery for 2 yds to the LaLaf 48Similar
Q1 10:12
3RD & 9
OWN 47
-2
79.1%
Henry Colombi sacked by Andre Jones for a loss of 2 yards to the Marsh 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 3FG8 plays · 55 yds · 2:3321% → 22%
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+19
78.8%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Michael Jefferson for 19 yds to the LaLaf 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:09
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+20
78.6%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Michael Jefferson for 20 yds to the Marsh 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+18
78.0%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Peter LeBlanc for 18 yds to the Marsh 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
77.7%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Peter LeBlanc for 2 yds to the Marsh 21Similar
Q1 7:46
2ND & 8
OPP 21
-4
77.5%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Lance Legendre for a loss of 4 yards to the Marsh 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:1277% → 76%
ULDrive 5DOWNS8 plays · 18 yds · 2:3123% → 25%
MRSHDrive 6MISSED FG14 plays · 27 yds · 5:3376% → 72%
Q1 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-5
75.6%
MARSHALL Penalty, False Start (Charles Montgomery) to the LaLaf 42Similar
Q1 0:17
1ST & 15
OPP 42
-4
74.6%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Corey Gammage for a loss of 4 yards Corey Gammage fumbled, forced by Kam Pedescleaux, recovered by Marsh Ethan PayneSimilar
Q2 14:26
3RD & 13
OPP 40
+12
73.8%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Corey Gammage for 12 yds to the LaLaf 28Similar
Q2 12:56
2ND & 8
OPP 24
-4
75.0%
Henry Colombi sacked by Zi'Yon Hill-Green for a loss of 4 yards to the LaLaf 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 7PUNT7 plays · 26 yds · 2:3928% → 30%
Q2 10:51
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+19
71.4%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Errol Rogers Jr. for 19 yds to the Marsh 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 8TD11 plays · 87 yds · 5:2271% → 78%
Q2 7:44
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+42
68.9%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Corey Gammage for 42 yds to the LaLaf 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:57
3RD & 3
OPP 9
+5
69.8%
Colombi, Henry pass incomplete to Laborn, Khalan, PENALTY ULLAFAYTTE personal foul (Hazard, Sonny) 5 yards to the ULLAFAYTTE4, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MARSHALL.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 1:1225% → 24%
MRSHDrive 10PUNT6 plays · 20 yds · 2:3376% → 76%
ULDrive 11END OF HALF1 play · 4 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 12INT5 plays · 12 yds · 1:3977% → 77%
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-25
77.1%
Henry Colombi pass intercepted Bralen Trahan return for 25 yds to the LaLaf 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 13TD9 plays · 60 yds · 2:3227% → 43%
Q3 12:28
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+3
72.4%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Pearse Migl for 3 yds to the LaLaf 45Similar
Q3 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+34
71.3%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to John Stephens Jr. for 34 yds to the Marsh 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+6
56.7%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Dontae Fleming for 6 yds for a TD, (Kenneth Almendares KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 14PUNT7 plays · 11 yds · 2:2962% → 57%
ULDrive 15FG8 plays · 61 yds · 2:5542% → 55%
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+43
57.8%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Neal Johnson for 43 yds to the Marsh 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+12
54.0%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Neal Johnson for 12 yds to the Marsh 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
51.7%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Dontae Fleming for no gain to the Marsh 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 16PUNT5 plays · -4 yds · 2:1950% → 45%
ULDrive 17FG8 plays · 14 yds · 2:0861% → 68%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 18DOWNS8 plays · 41 yds · 2:2534% → 33%
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+21
34.1%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Charles Montgomery for 21 yds to the LaLaf 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 19TD7 plays · 66 yds · 2:2371% → 92%
Q4 11:52
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+16
27.2%
Ben Wooldridge run for 1 yd to the Marsh 40 for a 1ST down MARSHALL Penalty, Personal Foul (Andre Sam) to the Marsh 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-8
24.8%
Ben Wooldridge run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 43 LOUISIANA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Johnny Lumpkin) to the LaLaf 47Similar
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
7.9%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Michael Jefferson for 32 yds for a TD, (Kenneth Almendares KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 20TD11 plays · 75 yds · 3:0010% → 22%
Q4 8:40
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+9
10.1%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Khalan Laborn for 9 yds to the LaLaf 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
10.1%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Shadeed Ahmed for 9 yds to the LaLaf 38Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 1
OPP 38
+6
10.4%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Ethan Payne for 6 yds to the LaLaf 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+15
10.6%
Fancher, Cam pass incomplete to Ahmed, Shadeed (TEAM), PENALTY ULLAFAYTTE pass interference (Jackson, E.J.) 15 yards to the ULLAFAYTTE17, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MARSHALL, QB hurry by TEAM, QB hit by TEAM.Similar
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
10.7%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Talik Keaton for 6 yds to the LaLaf 11Similar
Q4 7:04
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+10
10.3%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Devin Miller for 10 yds to the LaLaf 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
21.7%
Khalan Laborn run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 21PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 2:1885% → 87%
Q4 4:27
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+6
12.6%
Rhys Byrns punt for 41 yds , Talik Keaton returns for 6 yds to the Marsh 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 22FUMBLE4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5212% → 10%
Q4 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-3
12.4%
Cam Fancher sacked by Sonny Hazard and Jourdan Quibodeaux for a loss of 3 yards to the Marsh 32Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 13
OWN 32
+8
11.3%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Corey Gammage for 8 yds to the Marsh 40Similar
Q4 3:27
4TH & 5
OWN 40
-2
10.0%
Cam Fancher run for a loss of 2 yards to the Marsh 38 Cam Fancher fumbled, forced by Mason Narcisse, recovered by LaLaf Courtline FlowersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:59
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Michael Jefferson for 32 yds for a TD, (Kenneth Almendares KICK)
-16.4
TD · Q3 10:30
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Dontae Fleming for 6 yds for a TD, (Kenneth Almendares KICK)
-13.9
TD · Q4 6:52
Khalan Laborn run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+11.4