2022 · Week 12 · Nov 19, 2022 · Allen E. Paulson Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · GASO
modelGASO aheadMRSH aheadconfidence bandkey playGASO scoreMRSH score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:34 · John McConnell punt for 38 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 9:31: Cam Fancher pass complete to Shadeed Ahmed for 33 yds for a TD, (Rece Verhoff KICK) — MRSH win probability +6.6 pts (now 70%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
- TD · Q2 7:04: Cam Fancher run for 19 yds for a TD, (Rece Verhoff KICK) — MRSH win probability +9.8 pts (now 81%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:16: Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 27 yds for a TD, (Alex Raynor KICK) — GASO win probability +8.3 pts (now 31%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
- FG · Q3 7:40: Rece Verhoff 36 yd FG GOOD — MRSH win probability +7.5 pts (now 82%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 10:49: Khalan Laborn run for 3 yds to the Marsh 18 — MRSH win probability +10.7 pts (now 92%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
GASO made the numbers' call on 6 of 8MRSH made the numbers' call on 4 of 9
- Q1 11:20GASO 4th & 12 at MRSH 44, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.6% before the snapGo for it36.6%−0.124% to convertField goal36.5%−0.127% to makePuntTheir call36.7%average punt
- Q1 7:29MRSH 4th & 20 at GASO 35, up 6Close callPunted · 62.6% before the snapGo for it62.4%−0.510% to convertField goal62.9%45% to makePuntTheir call62.7%−0.2average punt
- Q1 4:31GASO 4th & 17 at MRSH 29, down 6Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.0% before the snapGo for it36.6%−0.414% to convertField goalTheir call37.0%58% to makePunt36.0%−1.0average punt
- Q1 1:20MRSH 4th & 7 at GASO 38, up 3Close callPunted · 60.9% before the snapGo for it61.1%37% to convertField goal60.8%−0.338% to makePuntTheir call60.8%−0.3average punt
- Q2 14:16GASO 4th & 2 at GASO 39, down 3Close callPunted · 39.4% before the snapGo for it39.6%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call39.2%−0.4average punt
- Q2 12:49MRSH 4th & 9 at MRSH 21, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.2% before the snapGo for it58.6%−1.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call59.7%average punt
- Q2 11:53GASO 4th & 9 at GASO 29, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.0% before the snapGo for it38.8%−0.631% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call39.4%average punt
- Q2 6:35GASO 4th & 10 at GASO 22, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.6% before the snapGo for it22.8%−0.928% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.7%average punt
- Q2 4:39MRSH 4th & 1 at GASO 44, up 17Numbers favored go for it by 2.6 ptsPunted · 79.4% before the snapGo for it79.4%70% to convertField goal76.0%−3.427% to makePuntTheir call76.8%−2.6average punt
- Q2 0:46MRSH 4th & 1 at GASO 37, up 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call71.8%70% to convertField goal71.2%−0.640% to makePunt70.5%−1.3average punt
- Q3 13:03GASO 4th & 15 at MRSH 45, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.7% before the snapGo for it26.1%−1.217% to convertField goal26.2%−1.025% to makePuntTheir call27.3%average punt
- Q3 7:40MRSH 4th & 17 at GASO 18, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.7% before the snapGo for it70.0%−2.813% to convertField goalTheir call72.9%79% to makePunt65.3%−7.5average punt
- Q3 5:39GASO 4th & 14 at GASO 37, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.4% before the snapGo for it19.5%−1.618% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call21.1%average punt
- Q3 4:34MRSH 4th & 10 at MRSH 41, up 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.3% before the snapGo for it83.7%−1.929% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call85.6%average punt
- Q3 3:04GASO 4th & 3 at GASO 28, down 13Close callPunted · 18.9% before the snapGo for it19.7%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.5%−0.3average punt
- Q3 0:14MRSH 4th & 2 at midfield, up 13Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsPunted · 87.4% before the snapGo for it88.2%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call86.1%−2.1average punt
- Q4 0:11MRSH 4th & 5 at GASO 5, up 13Close callWent for it · 97.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call97.1%−0.333% to convertField goal97.4%92% to makePunt95.3%−2.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GASO made the numbers' call on 1 of 1MRSH made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 13:39MRSH Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call63.8%97% to makeGo for two63.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:31MRSH Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call67.9%97% to makeGo for two67.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:04MRSH Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call75.3%97% to makeGo for two75.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:16GASO Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call29.4%97% to makeGo for two29.3%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartMRSHDrive 1TD4 plays · 75 yds · 1:2168% → 67%
GASODrive 2PUNT7 plays · 31 yds · 2:1933% → 33%
Q1 13:39
2ND & 7
OPP 39
0
33.0%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Marcus Sanders Jr. for no gain to the Marsh 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 3PUNT11 plays · 57 yds · 3:5166% → 66%
Q1 11:20
3RD & 1
OWN 17
+15
33.5%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Marsh 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
33.4%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Charles Montgomery for 11 yds to the Marsh 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+30
33.3%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Khalan Laborn for 30 yds to the GeoSo 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
3RD & 10
OPP 25
-15
33.2%
FANCHER, Cam pass up the middle complete for 11 yards to GAMMAGE, Corey caught at the GS17 and advanced to the GS14 (WILSON, Anthony;JACKSON, Jalen). PENALTY MU Personal Foul on SARTOR, Kendrick enforced 15 yards from the GS25 to the GS40 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 11:20
3RD & 25
OPP 40
+5
33.4%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Khalan Laborn for 5 yds to the GeoSo 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 4FG8 plays · 67 yds · 2:5834% → 35%
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+13
35.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 13 yds to the Marsh 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:29
3RD & 6
OPP 18
+4
35.0%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 4 yds to the Marsh 14Similar
Q1 7:29
4TH & 2
OPP 14
-15
34.7%
WHITE, Jalen rush to the right for a gain of 6 yards to the MU8 (JACKSON, E.J.;ABRAHAM, Micah). PENALTY GS Personal Foul on SANDERS JR., Marcus enforced 15 yards from the MU14 to the MU29 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 5PUNT9 plays · 37 yds · 3:1164% → 64%
Q1 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
35.1%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Charles Montgomery for 4 yds to the GeoSo 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 6PUNT6 plays · 19 yds · 2:0436% → 37%
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
36.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 6 yds to the GeoSo 26Similar
Q1 1:20
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+5
36.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Marcus Sanders Jr. for 5 yds to the GeoSo 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+3
36.9%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Marcus Sanders Jr. for 3 yds to the GeoSo 35Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+4
36.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Evan Lester for 4 yds to the GeoSo 39Similar
Q2 14:16
4TH & 2
OWN 39
0
36.8%
Anthony Beck II punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Steven Gilmore at the Marsh 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 1:2764% → 62%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 8PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5638% → 37%
Q2 11:53
4TH & 9
OWN 29
+11
36.5%
Anthony Beck II punt for 46 yds , Steven Gilmore returns for 11 yds to the Marsh 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 9TD8 plays · 64 yds · 2:2263% → 70%
GASODrive 10FUMBLE4 plays · 32 yds · 1:0730% → 32%
MRSHDrive 11TD6 plays · 57 yds · 1:2071% → 81%
Q2 8:24
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+28
29.6%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Jayden Harrison for 28 yds to the GeoSo 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 12PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2923% → 22%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:5681% → 81%
GASODrive 14TD9 plays · 85 yds · 2:2321% → 31%
Q2 4:39
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+13
21.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:39
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+13
22.7%
VANTREASE, Kyle pass to the right incomplete intended for SINGLETON, Jeremy broken up by HILL, D'Yoni at the MU28. PENALTY MU Pass Interference on HILL, D'Yoni enforced at the spot of the foul for 13 yards to the MU27 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
31.0%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 27 yds for a TD, (Alex Raynor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 15DOWNS7 plays · 37 yds · 1:3073% → 75%
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
25.7%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Rasheen Ali for 5 yds to the GeoSo 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 16END OF HALF3 plays · 4 yds · 0:4627% → 25%
GASODrive 17PUNT9 plays · 30 yds · 1:5727% → 25%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
26.8%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Dalen Cobb for 6 yds to the GeoSo 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+17
27.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 17 yds to the GeoSo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
28.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 8 yds to the Marsh 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+4
29.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 4 yds to the Marsh 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 10
OPP 40
-5
26.7%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Delay Of Game (Kyle Vantrease) to the Marsh 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 18FG16 plays · 65 yds · 5:2374% → 82%
Q3 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+11
26.3%
Cam Fancher pass complete to EJ Horton for 11 yds to the Marsh 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:03
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+15
25.3%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Bryan Robinson for 15 yds to the GeoSo 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
24.5%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Charles Montgomery for 3 yds to the GeoSo 8Similar
Q3 13:03
3RD & 7
OPP 8
-10
25.0%
MARSHALL Penalty, Offensive Holding (Ethan Driskell) to the GeoSo 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 19PUNT6 plays · 12 yds · 1:5221% → 20%
Q3 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
21.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for a loss of 6 yards to the GeoSo 19Similar
Q3 7:31
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+22
21.0%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jalen White for 22 yds to the GeoSo 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:31
3RD & 5
OWN 46
-9
21.7%
Kyle Vantrease sacked by Abraham Beauplan for a loss of 9 yards to the GeoSo 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 20PUNT6 plays · 18 yds · 1:0585% → 85%
GASODrive 21PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:3019% → 13%
Q3 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
19.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 3 yds to the GeoSo 24Similar
Q3 4:34
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+4
19.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Marcus Sanders Jr. for 4 yds to the GeoSo 28Similar
Q3 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
13.2%
QB Keeper FANCHER, Cam rush to the right for a gain of 2 yards to the MU33 (JACKSON, Khadry). PENALTY GS Offsides on SPRINGER, Dillon enforced 5 yards from the MU31 to the MU36 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 22PUNT5 plays · 19 yds · 2:5087% → 88%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 23INT11 plays · 71 yds · 4:1117% → 19%
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 3
+9
16.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 9 yds to the GeoSo 12Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 12
+20
16.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Darius Lewis for 20 yds to the GeoSo 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
17.7%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to OJ Arnold for 8 yds to the GeoSo 40Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
18.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 15 yds to the Marsh 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-5
19.5%
Kyle Vantrease sacked by Owen Porter for a loss of 5 yards to the Marsh 47Similar
Q4 10:49
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+18
19.2%
MARSHALL Penalty, Personal Foul (Owen Porter) to the Marsh 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 24DOWNS24 plays · 75 yds · 10:3892% → 99%
Q4 10:49
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+19
8.4%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Devin Miller for 19 yds to the Marsh 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 25END OF GAME1 play · 13 yds · 0:002% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 10:49
Khalan Laborn run for 3 yds to the Marsh 18
-10.7
TD · Q2 7:04
Cam Fancher run for 19 yds for a TD, (Rece Verhoff KICK)
-9.8
TD · Q2 2:16
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 27 yds for a TD, (Alex Raynor KICK)
+8.3