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MRSH

Marshall 7 at Troy 16

TROY
2022 · Week 4 · Sep 24, 2022 · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
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Win probability · TROY
modelTROY aheadMRSH aheadconfidence bandkey playTROY scoreMRSH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:04 · Rece Verhoff punt for 47 yds, downed at the Troy 18
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+28.0+14.00−14.0−28.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 89Home team on offense+9.5Pregame prior−6.5Garbage-time factor+1.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.5Score differential+3.1Blowout margin+0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 4:25: Khalan Laborn run for 14 yds for a TD, (Rece Verhoff KICK) — MRSH win probability +17.9 pts (now 49%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. SACK · Q3 4:25: Gunnar Watson sacked by Charlie Gray for a loss of 4 yards to the Troy 21 — TROY win probability +6.9 pts (now 58%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 7:43: Brooks Buce 25 yd FG GOOD — TROY win probability +11.3 pts (now 86%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 7:43: Khalan Laborn run for a loss of 1 yard to the Marsh 24 — MRSH win probability +6.5 pts (now 21%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 3:18: Brooks Buce 28 yd FG GOOD — TROY win probability +6.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TROY made the numbers' call on 8 of 9MRSH made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 7:41MRSH 4th & 11 at TROY 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.5%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:31TROY 4th & 8 at MRSH 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.7%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.9%
    70% to make
    Punt
    47.1%−1.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:59MRSH 4th & 13 at midfield, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.6%−0.7
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:19MRSH 4th & 3 at MRSH 18, down 10
    Close callPunted · 41.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.6%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.2%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:07TROY 4th & 2 at MRSH 41, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    58.0%−2.3
    32% to make
    Punt
    58.4%−1.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:26MRSH 4th & 15 at TROY 48, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.5%−1.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:21TROY 4th & 4 at TROY 20, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.5%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:03MRSH 4th & 17 at TROY 17, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.6%−2.3
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.9%
    80% to make
    Punt
    26.8%−7.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:04MRSH 4th & 15 at MRSH 35, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.0%−2.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:21TROY 4th & 10 at TROY 18, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.0%−2.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:32MRSH 4th & 10 at TROY 44, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.8%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    23.8%−1.8
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    25.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:49TROY 4th & 8 at TROY 27, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.5%−2.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:14MRSH 4th & 21 at MRSH 43, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.8%−5.5
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:35TROY 4th & 9 at MRSH 45, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.4%−0.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    63.3%−3.0
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    66.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:24MRSH 4th & 18 at MRSH 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.2%−4.6
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:43TROY 4th & 8 at MRSH 8, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.7%−1.7
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.4%
    90% to make
    Punt
    50.4%−19.0
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:29MRSH 4th & 8 at MRSH 27, down 6
    Close callPunted · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.9%
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.5%−0.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:18TROY 4th & 6 at MRSH 11, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.1%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.5%
    87% to make
    Punt
    80.5%−8.0
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:32MRSH 4th & 14 at MRSH 21, down 9
    Close callWent for it · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.7%−0.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.1%
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:00TROY 4th & 1 at MRSH 17, up 9
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.4 ptsWent for it · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.5%−1.4
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    95.8%
    80% to make
    Punt
    92.3%−3.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TROY made the numbers' call on 1 of 1MRSH made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 10:51TROY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 4:25MRSH Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TROYDrive 1FUMBLE
7 plays · 49 yds · 2:4736% → 37%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
35.8%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
35.8%
Kimani Vidal run for 5 yds to the Troy 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+50
35.8%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Marcus Rogers for 50 yds to the Marsh 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
35.8%
Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the Marsh 16Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 16
0
35.8%
Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the Marsh 16Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 16
-5
35.8%
TROY Penalty, False Start (Daniel King) to the Marsh 21Similar
Q1 12:13
3RD & 11
OPP 21
-5
37.2%
Gunnar Watson sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the Marsh 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 2FUMBLE RETURN TD
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:2263% → 61%
Q1 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
36.9%
Khalan Laborn run for 6 yds to the Marsh 32Similar
Q1 12:13
2ND & 4
OWN 32
0
36.7%
Henry Colombi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:13
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+8
36.9%
Khalan Laborn run for 8 yds to the Marsh 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
36.7%
Khalan Laborn run for 2 yds to the Marsh 42Similar
Q1 10:51
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+23
38.6%
Buddha Jones 23 Yd Fumble Return (Robert Bruce Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 3:1061% → 58%
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
38.8%
LABORN, Khalan rush to the left for a gain of 5 yards to the MAR30 (MARTIAL, Carlton;SOLOMON, Javon). PENALTY TRO Holding on PIERCE, AJ enforced 10 yards from the MAR30 to the MAR40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
38.6%
Khalan Laborn run for 6 yds to the Marsh 46Similar
Q1 10:51
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+3
38.5%
Khalan Laborn run for 3 yds to the Marsh 49Similar
Q1 10:51
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+4
38.5%
Khalan Laborn run for 4 yds to the Troy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
38.4%
Henry Colombi sacked for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 48Similar
Q1 7:53
2ND & 11
OPP 48
0
40.7%
Ethan Payne run for no gain to the Troy 48Similar
Q1 7:53
3RD & 11
OPP 48
0
40.9%
Henry Colombi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:41
4TH & 11
OPP 48
0
41.6%
John McConnell punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Deshon Stoudemire at the Troy 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 4FG
6 plays · 68 yds · 2:1042% → 44%
Q1 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
41.6%
Jamontez Woods run for 3 yds to the Troy 12Similar
Q1 7:41
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+63
41.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 63 yds to the Marsh 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
42.5%
Jamontez Woods run for 2 yds to the Marsh 23Similar
Q1 7:41
2ND & 8
OPP 23
0
42.5%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:41
3RD & 8
OPP 23
0
42.2%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:31
4TH & 8
OPP 23
+40
44.1%
Brooks Buce 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 5PUNT
10 plays · 22 yds · 4:3256% → 52%
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
44.2%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Corey Gammage for no gain to the Marsh 28Similar
Q1 5:31
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+1
44.3%
Khalan Laborn run for 1 yd to the Marsh 29Similar
Q1 5:31
3RD & 9
OWN 29
+10
44.5%
Henry Colombi run for 10 yds to the Marsh 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
43.8%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Khalan Laborn for 9 yds to the Marsh 48Similar
Q1 5:31
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+5
43.4%
Khalan Laborn run for 5 yds to the Troy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
43.4%
Ethan Payne run for no gain to the Troy 47Similar
Q1 5:31
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
43.6%
Henry Colombi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:10
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+5
46.4%
COLOMBI, Henry pass to the left intercepted by SWANSON, Keyshawn at the TRO14 intended for MONTGOMERY, Charles. Swanson return for 0 yards to the TRO14, End of Play, clock 02:10. PENALTY TRO Offsides on PIERCE, AJ enforced 5 yards from the TRO47 to the TRO42 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 2:10
3RD & 5
OPP 42
-8
45.9%
Henry Colombi sacked by Phillip Lee for a loss of 8 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 0:59
4TH & 13
50
0
48.5%
John McConnell punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 6FUMBLE
9 plays · 80 yds · 3:5548% → 53%
Q1 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+44
47.8%
DK Billingsley run for 44 yds to the Marsh 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
50.0%
DK Billingsley run for 6 yds to the Marsh 41Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 41
0
50.2%
DK Billingsley run for no gain to the Marsh 41Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 41
+9
49.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 9 yds to the Marsh 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
50.4%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+15
50.2%
WATSON, Gunnar pass to the left incomplete intended for JOHNSON, RaJae' thrown to the MAR0. PENALTY MAR Pass Interference on ABRAHAM, Micah enforced 15 yards to the MAR17 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
50.4%
DK Billingsley run for 7 yds to the Marsh 10Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 10
+4
50.4%
DK Billingsley run for 4 yds to the Marsh 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
53.3%
Jamontez Woods run for a loss of 5 yards to the Marsh 11 Jamontez Woods fumbled, recovered by Marsh Elijah AlstonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:4548% → 45%
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+6
52.1%
Khalan Laborn run for 6 yds to the Marsh 17Similar
Q2 12:04
2ND & 4
OWN 17
+1
52.0%
Khalan Laborn run for 1 yd to the Marsh 18Similar
Q2 12:04
3RD & 3
OWN 18
0
52.4%
Cam Fancher run for no gain to the Marsh 18Similar
Q2 10:19
4TH & 3
OWN 18
0
54.8%
Rece Verhoff punt for 42 yds, downed at the Troy 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 8DOWNS
7 plays · 20 yds · 3:1255% → 58%
Q2 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
54.7%
Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the Troy 44Similar
Q2 10:19
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+4
54.8%
Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the Troy 48Similar
Q2 10:19
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+3
54.1%
Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the Marsh 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
54.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to RaJae' Johnson for 4 yds to the Marsh 45Similar
Q2 10:19
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+4
55.0%
DK Billingsley run for 4 yds to the Marsh 41Similar
Q2 10:19
3RD & 2
OPP 41
0
54.6%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:07
4TH & 2
OPP 41
+1
57.5%
DK Billingsley run for 1 yd to the Marsh 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 1:4144% → 40%
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+17
56.3%
Khalan Laborn run for 17 yds to the Troy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-2
55.3%
Khalan Laborn run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 45Similar
Q2 7:07
2ND & 12
OPP 45
0
56.0%
Cam Fancher pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:07
3RD & 12
OPP 45
-5
56.8%
MARSHALL Penalty, False Start (Khalan Laborn) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:07
3RD & 17
50
+2
57.2%
Cam Fancher run for 2 yds to the Troy 48Similar
Q2 5:26
4TH & 15
OPP 48
0
59.7%
John McConnell punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Deshon Stoudemire at the Troy 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 2:0559% → 60%
Q2 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
59.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 4 yds to the Troy 18Similar
Q2 5:26
2ND & 6
OWN 18
0
59.0%
DK Billingsley run for no gain to the Troy 18Similar
Q2 5:26
3RD & 6
OWN 18
+2
58.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 2 yds to the Troy 20Similar
Q2 3:21
4TH & 4
OWN 20
0
60.0%
Mike Rivers punt for 30 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 11MISSED FG
14 plays · 33 yds · 3:1841% → 34%
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
50
+3
59.0%
Khalan Laborn run for 3 yds to the Troy 47Similar
Q2 3:21
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+2
59.0%
Khalan Laborn run for 2 yds to the Troy 45Similar
Q2 3:21
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+8
59.2%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Talik Keaton for 8 yds to the Troy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
59.0%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Khalan Laborn for 6 yds to the Troy 31Similar
Q2 3:21
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+3
57.7%
EJ Horton run for 3 yds to the Troy 28Similar
Q2 3:21
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+7
58.7%
A.J. Turner run for 7 yds to the Troy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
60.5%
Khalan Laborn run for 1 yd to the Troy 20Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+10
60.5%
Khalan Laborn run for 10 yds to the Troy 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
60.0%
Khalan Laborn run for no gain to the Troy 10Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-7
60.0%
Henry Colombi sacked by TJ Harris for a loss of 7 yards to the Troy 17Similar
Q2 0:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 17
0
63.9%
Henry Colombi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:03
4TH & GOAL
OPP 17
+34
65.8%
Rece Verhoff 34 yd FG BLOCKED blocked bySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 6 yds · 2:5637% → 32%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
62.6%
Khalan Laborn run for 5 yds to the Marsh 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+4
61.9%
Khalan Laborn run for 4 yds to the Marsh 38Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+2
61.1%
Khalan Laborn run for 2 yds to the Marsh 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-10
61.4%
COLOMBI, Henry pass to the left incomplete intended for GAMMAGE, Corey thrown to the TRO36. PENALTY MAR Holding on SARTOR, Kendrick enforced 10 yards from the MAR40 to the MAR30 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 30
+1
62.9%
Khalan Laborn run for 1 yd to the Marsh 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 19
OWN 31
0
63.2%
Henry Colombi pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 19
OWN 31
+4
64.3%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Caleb McMillan for 4 yds to the Marsh 35Similar
Q3 12:04
4TH & 15
OWN 35
0
69.0%
Rece Verhoff punt for 47 yds, downed at the Troy 18Similar
Q3 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-4
67.6%
WATSON, Gunnar pass to the left complete for 4 yards to BARBER, Jabre caught at the TRO21 and advanced to the TRO22 (MARTIN, Kerion). PENALTY TRO Holding on BETTS, Grant enforced half the distance from the goal, 9 yards from the TRO18 to the TRO9 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 2:4367% → 68%
Q3 12:04
1ST & 19
OWN 9
+3
67.2%
Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the Troy 12Similar
Q3 12:04
2ND & 16
OWN 12
0
67.2%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for no gain to the Troy 12Similar
Q3 12:04
3RD & 16
OWN 12
+6
66.2%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 6 yds to the Troy 18Similar
Q3 9:21
4TH & 10
OWN 18
0
68.1%
Mike Rivers punt for 36 yds , Talik Keaton returns for no gain to the Marsh 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 2:4932% → 27%
Q3 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+10
68.0%
Cam Fancher run for 10 yds to the Troy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
67.3%
Khalan Laborn run for 2 yds to the Troy 42Similar
Q3 9:21
2ND & 8
OPP 42
-2
67.4%
Cam Fancher run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 44Similar
Q3 9:21
3RD & 10
OPP 44
-10
68.5%
FANCHER, Cam pass to the right complete for 21 yards to LABORN, Khalan caught at the TRO47 and advanced to the TRO23 (CASS, Kyle). PENALTY MAR Holding on DRISKELL, Ethan enforced 10 yards from the TRO44 to the MAR46 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 9:21
3RD & 20
OWN 46
+10
70.4%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Talik Keaton for 10 yds to the Troy 44Similar
Q3 6:32
4TH & 10
OPP 44
0
72.8%
John McConnell punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Deshon Stoudemire at the Troy 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 16INT
3 plays · 7 yds · 1:3074% → 74%
Q3 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
73.6%
DK Billingsley run for 3 yds to the Troy 13Similar
Q3 6:32
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+4
73.4%
DK Billingsley run for 4 yds to the Troy 17Similar
Q3 5:02
3RD & 3
OWN 17
0
73.7%
Gunnar Watson pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 17TD
2 plays · 16 yds · 0:3731% → 49%
Q3 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
68.8%
Khalan Laborn run for 2 yds to the Troy 14Similar
Q3 4:25
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+14
50.9%
Khalan Laborn run for 14 yds for a TD, (Rece Verhoff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:3658% → 56%
Q3 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
57.8%
Gunnar Watson sacked by Charlie Gray for a loss of 4 yards to the Troy 21Similar
Q3 4:25
2ND & 14
OWN 21
0
57.2%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:25
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+6
55.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 6 yds to the Troy 27Similar
Q3 2:49
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+6
55.7%
Mike Rivers punt for 40 yds , Talik Keaton returns for 6 yds to the Troy 33 TROY Penalty, Personal Foul (Zion Williams) to the Troy 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 2:4047% → 37%
Q3 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
53.0%
Khalan Laborn run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 47Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 11
OPP 47
0
56.8%
Cam Fancher pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:00
3RD & 11
OPP 47
-10
58.5%
Cam Fancher sacked by Richard Jibunor for a loss of 10 yards to the Marsh 43Similar
Q3 1:14
4TH & 21
OWN 43
+7
62.9%
John McConnell punt for 40 yds , Deshon Stoudemire returns for 7 yds to the 50 yard line TROY Penalty, Illegal Block (DK Billingsley) to the Troy 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 41 yds · 2:3961% → 66%
Q3 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+30
60.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 30 yds to the Troy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+10
64.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 10 yds to the Marsh 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
65.9%
Gunnar Watson run for no gain to the Marsh 46Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+1
65.5%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the Marsh 45Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 45
0
64.2%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:35
4TH & 9
OPP 45
0
65.9%
Mike Rivers punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Talik Keaton at the Marsh 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 21PUNT
10 plays · 28 yds · 4:1135% → 32%
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
65.4%
Khalan Laborn run for 2 yds to the Marsh 11Similar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 8
OWN 11
+7
64.4%
Khalan Laborn run for 7 yds to the Marsh 18Similar
Q4 13:35
3RD & 1
OWN 18
+3
65.0%
Khalan Laborn run for 3 yds to the Marsh 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
63.9%
Cam Fancher pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+3
64.1%
A.J. Turner run for 3 yds to the Marsh 24Similar
Q4 13:35
3RD & 7
OWN 24
+21
65.1%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Caleb McMillan for 21 yds to the Marsh 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
60.0%
Cam Fancher pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-2
61.3%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Jayden Harrison for a loss of 2 yards to the Marsh 43Similar
Q4 13:35
3RD & 12
OWN 43
0
63.7%
Cam Fancher sacked for loss of 6 yards to the Marsh 37, MARSHALL Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 9:24
4TH & 18
OWN 37
0
68.1%
John McConnell punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Deshon Stoudemire at the Troy 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 22FG
6 plays · 69 yds · 1:4171% → 86%
Q4 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+58
71.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 58 yds to the Marsh 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
76.3%
MARSHALL Penalty, Roughing the Passer on BEAUPLAN, Abraham enforced half the distance from the goal (Abraham Beauplan) to the Marsh 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
76.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 1 yd to the Marsh 8Similar
Q4 9:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
76.3%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
74.7%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:43
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
86.0%
Brooks Buce 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1421% → 17%
Q4 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
79.5%
Khalan Laborn run for a loss of 1 yard to the Marsh 24Similar
Q4 7:43
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+3
79.8%
Cam Fancher run for 3 yds to the Marsh 27Similar
Q4 7:43
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
80.6%
Henry Colombi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:29
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
82.9%
John McConnell punt for 48 yds, downed at the Troy 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 24FG
7 plays · 64 yds · 3:1187% → 94%
Q4 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+60
86.8%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 60 yds to the Marsh 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-10
89.4%
WATSON, Gunnar pass to the left incomplete intended for BILLINGSLEY, DK thrown to the MAR4. PENALTY TRO Holding on LEWIS, AJ enforced 10 yards from the MAR15 to the MAR25 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 6:29
1ST & 20
OPP 25
-9
89.0%
Gunnar Watson sacked by Damion Barber for a loss of 9 yards to the Marsh 34Similar
Q4 6:29
2ND & 29
OPP 34
+10
88.5%
Kimani Vidal run for 10 yds to the Marsh 24Similar
Q4 6:29
3RD & 19
OPP 24
-5
87.7%
TROY Penalty, False Start (Daniel King) to the Marsh 29Similar
Q4 6:29
3RD & 24
OPP 29
+18
87.7%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 18 yds to the Marsh 11Similar
Q4 3:18
4TH & 6
OPP 11
+28
93.9%
Brooks Buce 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 25DOWNS
7 plays · 1 yds · 1:467% → 5%
Q4 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
92.6%
Henry Colombi sacked by Javon Solomon for a loss of 7 yards to the Marsh 18Similar
Q4 3:18
2ND & 17
OWN 18
-9
92.7%
COLOMBI, Henry pass to the right complete for 9 yards to LABORN, Khalan caught at the MAR18 and advanced to the MAR27 (ROBERTSON, KJ). PENALTY MAR Holding on DRISKELL, Ethan enforced half the distance from the goal, 9 yards from the MAR18 to the MAR9 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 3:18
2ND & 26
OWN 9
+12
92.9%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Caleb McMillan for 12 yds to the Marsh 21Similar
Q4 2:13
3RD & 14
OWN 21
-5
95.1%
MARSHALL Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the Marsh 16Similar
Q4 2:13
3RD & 19
OWN 16
+5
94.9%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Shadeed Ahmed for 5 yds to the Marsh 21Similar
Q4 1:32
4TH & 14
OWN 21
+5
95.3%
Henry Colombi pass complete to Jayden Harrison for 5 yds to the Marsh 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 26END OF GAME
7 plays · 12 yds · 1:2597% → 97%
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
96.6%
DK Billingsley run for 6 yds to the Marsh 20Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+1
96.6%
DK Billingsley run for 1 yd to the Marsh 19Similar
Q4 0:31
3RD & 3
OPP 19
+2
97.5%
DK Billingsley run for 2 yds to the Marsh 17Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 17
+3
97.2%
DK Billingsley run for 3 yds to the Marsh 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:25
Khalan Laborn run for 14 yds for a TD, (Rece Verhoff KICK)
-17.9
FG · Q4 7:43
Brooks Buce 25 yd FG GOOD
+11.3
SACK · Q3 4:25
Gunnar Watson sacked by Charlie Gray for a loss of 4 yards to the Troy 21
+6.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com