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Win probability · CONN
modelCONN aheadMRSH aheadconfidence bandkey playCONN scoreMRSH score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:20 · Khalan Laborn run for 5 yds to the UConn 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 7:05: Cam Fancher pass complete to Devin Miller for 10 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK) — MRSH win probability +6.7 pts (now 91%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
- INT · Q2 0:02: Zion Turner pass intercepted, touchback. Corey Gammage return for 1 yd — CONN win probability +8.4 pts (now 16%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00: Sean Meisler kickoff for 38 yds fair catch by Justin Bryant at the UConn 27 — MRSH win probability +8.2 pts (now 93%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:35: Victor Rosa run for 14 yds for a TD (Noe Ruelas KICK) — CONN win probability +4.4 pts (now 5%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
- TD · Q3 0:01: Victor Rosa run for 24 yds for a TD (Noe Ruelas KICK) — CONN win probability +9.5 pts (now 13%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CONN made the numbers' call on 6 of 8MRSH made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
- Q1 11:58MRSH 4th & 1 at CONN 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call76.8%71% to convertField goal76.6%−0.251% to makePunt76.5%−0.2average punt
- Q1 9:50CONN 4th & 6 at CONN 30, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.8% before the snapGo for it22.8%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.9%average punt
- Q1 8:46MRSH 4th & 13 at MRSH 34, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.7% before the snapGo for it76.5%−0.420% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call77.0%average punt
- Q1 6:48CONN 4th & 9 at CONN 39, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.3% before the snapGo for it23.3%−0.232% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.5%average punt
- Q1 4:13MRSH 4th & 3 at MRSH 30, up 7Close callPunted · 75.9% before the snapGo for it76.2%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call76.0%−0.2average punt
- Q1 1:53CONN 4th & 12 at CONN 32, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.7% before the snapGo for it20.2%−0.923% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call21.1%average punt
- Q1 0:02MRSH 4th & 4 at CONN 42, up 14Close callPunted · 79.9% before the snapGo for it80.1%48% to convertField goal79.1%−1.030% to makePuntTheir call79.5%−0.6average punt
- Q2 13:02CONN 4th & 7 at CONN 11, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.2% before the snapGo for it20.0%−0.635% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.7%average punt
- Q2 11:42MRSH 4th & 9 at MRSH 31, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.3% before the snapGo for it79.8%−1.331% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call81.1%average punt
- Q2 8:25CONN 4th & 14 at MRSH 27, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.4% before the snapGo for it18.7%−0.718% to convertField goalTheir call19.5%62% to makePunt17.2%−2.3average punt
- Q2 1:08CONN 4th & 6 at MRSH 13, down 21Close callWent for it · 12.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call11.9%−0.237% to convertField goal12.1%85% to makePunt9.8%−2.3average punt
- Q2 0:02MRSH 4th & 6 at MRSH 17, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.9% before the snapGo for it90.3%−0.338% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call90.6%average punt
- Q3 13:56CONN 4th & 4 at CONN 33, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.6% before the snapGo for it10.7%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.8%average punt
- Q3 1:56MRSH 4th & 15 at MRSH 17, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.9% before the snapGo for it96.3%−0.816% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.2%average punt
- Q4 9:57CONN 4th & 13 at MRSH 45, down 14Close callWent for it · 9.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call7.8%−0.421% to convertField goal7.8%−0.425% to makePunt8.2%average punt
- Q4 8:10MRSH 4th & 6 at MRSH 49, up 14Close callPunted · 93.9% before the snapGo for it93.9%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call93.8%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CONN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MRSH made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 11:15MRSH Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call76.8%97% to makeGo for two76.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:23MRSH Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call78.4%97% to makeGo for two78.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:05MRSH Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call85.9%97% to makeGo for two85.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:51MRSH Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.2%97% to makeGo for two98.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:35CONN Touchdown, down 22 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call4.3%97% to makeGo for two4.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:01CONN Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call9.0%97% to makeGo for two8.9%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartMRSHDrive 1FUMBLE10 plays · 35 yds · 2:5282% → 80%
Q1 13:45
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+9
18.9%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Khalan Laborn for 9 yds to the UConn 44Similar
Q1 12:59
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+7
19.2%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Devin Miller for 7 yds to the UConn 34Similar
Q1 11:58
4TH & 1
OPP 32
-2
19.7%
Cam Fancher run for a loss of 2 yards to the UConn 34 Cam Fancher fumbled, recovered by UConn Durante JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 2FUMBLE1 play · 0 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q1 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+18
20.0%
Zion Turner run for no gain to the UConn 16 Zion Turner fumbled, recovered by Marsh Isaiah Norman , return for 18 yds to the UConn 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 3TD2 plays · 16 yds · 0:1880% → 81%
CONNDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:0519% → 20%
Q1 9:50
4TH & 6
OWN 30
0
19.5%
George Caratan punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Steven Gilmore at the Marsh 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 5PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 0:4481% → 80%
CONNDrive 6PUNT6 plays · 14 yds · 1:5520% → 20%
Q1 6:48
4TH & 9
OWN 39
0
20.1%
George Caratan punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Steven Gilmore at the Marsh 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 7PUNT7 plays · 20 yds · 2:1680% → 79%
Q1 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
20.3%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Shadeed Ahmed for 5 yds to the Marsh 15Similar
Q1 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
20.6%
Cam Fancher sacked by Pryce Yates for a loss of 1 yard to the Marsh 22Similar
Q1 4:44
2ND & 11
OWN 22
+8
20.7%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Charles Montgomery for 8 yds to the Marsh 30Similar
Q1 4:13
4TH & 3
OWN 30
+4
21.0%
John McConnell punt for 36 yds , Cam Ross returns for 4 yds to the UConn 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 8INT TD2 plays · 1 yds · 0:3221% → 18%
CONNDrive 9PUNT6 plays · -2 yds · 1:2518% → 18%
Q1 2:25
2ND & 13
OWN 31
+1
18.1%
Cale Millen pass complete to Aaron Turner for 1 yd to the UConn 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 17 yds · 1:3283% → 82%
CONNDrive 11PUNT6 plays · 3 yds · 1:5918% → 18%
Q2 14:07
3RD & 12
OWN 6
+5
18.0%
Cale Millen pass complete to Jacob Flynn for 5 yds to the UConn 11Similar
Q2 13:02
4TH & 7
OWN 11
-3
17.8%
George Caratan punt for 44 yds , Steven Gilmore returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Marsh 8 MARSHALL Penalty, Illegal Block (12 Yards) to the Marsh 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 12PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5883% → 83%
CONNDrive 13MISSED FG7 plays · 40 yds · 3:0718% → 17%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 14TD4 plays · 73 yds · 1:1284% → 91%
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+20
16.3%
Rasheen Ali run for 5 yds to the Marsh 32 for a 1ST down CONNECTICUT Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Marsh 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
9.1%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Devin Miller for 10 yds for a TD (Rece Verhoff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 15DOWNS16 plays · 72 yds · 5:4711% → 11%
Q2 5:53
3RD & 12
OWN 13
+10
11.0%
MARSHALL Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the UConn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 11
OWN 22
+37
11.0%
Zion Turner pass complete to Keelan Marion for 37 yds to the Marsh 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:37
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+12
11.7%
Zion Turner pass complete to Justin Joly for 12 yds to the Marsh 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 16PUNT8 plays · 4 yds · 0:5993% → 93%
Q2 0:02
4TH & 6
OWN 17
+37
7.2%
John McConnell punt for 37 yds , Cam Ross returns for a loss of 1 yard to the UConn 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 17END OF HALF1 play · 0 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
15.5%
Zion Turner pass intercepted, touchback. Corey Gammage return for 1 ydSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 18PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:5910% → 10%
MRSHDrive 19TD11 plays · 79 yds · 3:5493% → 98%
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
7.2%
Cam Fancher pass complete to Charles Montgomery for no gain to the Marsh 21Similar
Q3 12:44
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+21
6.6%
Ethan Payne run for 6 yds to the Marsh 32 for a 1ST down CONNECTICUT Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Marsh 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
5.1%
Fancher, Cam pass incomplete, PENALTY UCONN pass interference 15 yards to the UCONN14, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MARSHALL.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 20TD12 plays · 75 yds · 4:112% → 5%
Q3 7:38
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+20
1.2%
Zion Turner run for 5 yds to the Marsh 39 for a 1ST down MARSHALL Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the Marsh 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:17
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+32
0.8%
Zion Turner pass complete to Keelan Marion for 32 yds to the Marsh 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 21PUNT9 plays · 7 yds · 3:0397% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 22TD4 plays · 40 yds · 1:444% → 13%
Q3 1:11
2ND & 11
OPP 41
+12
3.3%
Zion Turner pass complete to Cam Ross for 12 yds to the Marsh 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 23INT4 plays · 36 yds · 0:5991% → 93%
CONNDrive 24DOWNS8 plays · 38 yds · 3:3611% → 8%
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+17
11.2%
Brian Brewton run for 2 yds to the Marsh 43 for a 1ST down MARSHALL Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Marsh 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-15
11.7%
Zion Turner pass incomplete CONNECTICUT Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the UConn 43Similar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 25
OWN 43
-2
10.4%
Zion Turner sacked by TyQaze Leggs for a loss of 2 yards to the UConn 41Similar
Q4 10:42
3RD & 27
OWN 41
+19
9.1%
Zion Turner pass complete to Aaron Turner for 19 yds to the Marsh 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 25PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2095% → 95%
Q4 8:10
4TH & 6
OWN 49
0
5.4%
John McConnell punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Cam Ross at the UConn 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 26INT10 plays · 60 yds · 2:505% → 5%
Q4 7:37
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+21
5.3%
Zion Turner pass complete to Aaron Turner for 6 yds to the UConn 29 for a 1ST down MARSHALL Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the UConn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:42
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+15
4.9%
MARSHALL Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Marsh 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+33
5.5%
Zion Turner pass complete to Aaron Turner for 33 yds to the Marsh 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-10
5.7%
CONNECTICUT Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Marsh 18Similar
Q4 5:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 20
0
4.9%
Zion Turner pass intercepted, touchback. Micah Abraham return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 27Uncategorized8 plays · 35 yds · 3:2596% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:01
Victor Rosa run for 24 yds for a TD (Noe Ruelas KICK)
+9.5
INT · Q2 0:02
Zion Turner pass intercepted, touchback. Corey Gammage return for 1 yd
+8.4
KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00
Sean Meisler kickoff for 38 yds fair catch by Justin Bryant at the UConn 27
-8.2