Florida International

Profile vs. FBS, 2018

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.2490th
  Defense+0.1532nd
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense42.7%42nd
  Defense45.6%26th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.3795th
  Defense+1.1084th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1164th
  Defense+0.1714th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.4095th
  Defense+0.1456th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense45.9%28th
  Defense51.3%19th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense36.2%75th
  Defense32.5%52nd
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.8036th
  Defense3.249th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense19.1%55th
  Defense15.9%12th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense13.9%75th
  Defense14.6%21st

Percentiles among the 130 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2018

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Florida International allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   IU
2. W
   ODU
3. W
   MASS
4. L
   MIA
5. W
   UAPB
6. W
   MTSU
7. W
   RICE
8. W
   WKU
9. L
   FAU
10. W
    UTSA
11. W
    CLT
12. L
    MRSH
13. W
    TOL

Bars above the line: better than expected for Florida International.

Players, 2018

1. James MorganQB289 plays · +0.204 pts/play · 76th of 225 QBs
   1.10WAR0.64 to 1.66
2. Napoleon MaxwellRB104 plays · +0.193 pts/play · 101st of 351 RBs
   0.37WAR0.29 to 0.46
3. Christian AlexanderQB63 plays · +0.246 pts/play · 166th of 225 QBs
   0.29WAR0.19 to 0.39
4. D'Vonte PriceRB86 plays · +0.152 pts/play · 179th of 351 RBs
   0.24WAR0.19 to 0.30
5. Anthony JonesRB75 plays · +0.162 pts/play · 193rd of 351 RBs
   0.23WAR0.19 to 0.27
6. Shawndarrius PhillipsRB67 plays · +0.139 pts/play · 229th of 351 RBs
   0.17WAR0.12 to 0.22
7. Austin MaloneyWR42 plays · +0.197 pts/play · 89th of 434 WRs
   0.16WAR0.11 to 0.21
8. CJ WortonWR38 plays · +0.167 pts/play · 144th of 434 WRs
   0.12WAR0.07 to 0.17

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Florida International's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2018

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  47747778th of 130Roster talent: 477, 78th of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  13813887th of 130Recruiting: 138, 87th of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  23%23%122nd of 129Returning production: 23%, 122nd of 129 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  −7.4−7.496th of 130SP+ rating: −7.4, 96th of 130 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2018

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Florida International's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 5 clear-cut ones account for 0.07 of the 0.11 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at UTSAQ2 0:00 4th & 1 at UTSA 6, up 14Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−2.2 pts
2. at CLTQ4 1:05 4th & 6 at CLT 30, up 7Punted; the numbers favored a field goal−1.5 pts
3. at TOLQ3 9:16 4th & 1 at FIU 34, down 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.4 pts
4. vs FAUQ4 13:04 4th & 11 at FAU 31, down 14Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−1.2 pts
5. at WKUQ3 9:38 4th & 2 at FIU 30, up 18Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.0 pts
6. vs FAUQ3 4:09 4th & 3 at FIU 43, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts
7. vs FAUQ2 14:54 4th & 9 at FAU 12, down 7Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.7 pts
8. vs FAUQ4 8:35 4th & 15 at FIU 34, down 21Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)−0.5 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2018

12th of 130 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Florida International's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   IU
2. W

   ODU
3. W

   MASS
4. L

   MIA
5. W

   UAPB
6. W

   MTSU
7. W

   RICE
8. W

   WKU
9. L

   FAU
10. W

    UTSA
11. W

    CLT
12. L

    MRSH
13. W

    TOL

What moved it, 2018

Every game starts at Florida International's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+1.58
• Possession & field position+0.02
• Clock+0.07
• Timeouts+0.02
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.11

Game by game

• IUL 28-38 vs IU19% → 3%Before kickoff −31 · On the field −16: Scoreboard −30, Clock −2
• ODUW 28-20 at ODU57% → 97%Before kickoff +7 · On the field +39: Scoreboard +45, Clock +3
• MASSW 63-24 vs MASS54% → 100%Before kickoff +4 · On the field +46: Scoreboard +43
• MIAL 17-31 at MIA4% → 1%Before kickoff −46 · On the field −3: Scoreboard −8
• UAPBW 55-9 vs UAPB100% → 100%Before kickoff +50 · On the field 0: Scoreboard +1
• MTSUW 24-21 vs MTSU53% → 93%Before kickoff +3 · On the field +40: Scoreboard +34, Possession & field position −1
• RICEW 36-17 vs RICE93% → 99%Before kickoff +43 · On the field +7: Scoreboard +13
• WKUW 38-17 at WKU59% → 100%Before kickoff +9 · On the field +41: Scoreboard +45, Clock +2
• FAUL 14-49 vs FAU55% → 0%Before kickoff +5 · On the field −55: Scoreboard −56
• UTSAW 45-7 at UTSA78% → 100%Before kickoff +28 · On the field +22: Scoreboard +28, Clock +1
• CLTW 42-35 at CLT54% → 90%Before kickoff +4 · On the field +36: Scoreboard +42, Possession & field position +2
• MRSHL 25-28 vs MRSH39% → 7%Before kickoff −11 · On the field −31: Scoreboard −40, Clock −3
• TOLW 35-32 at TOL31% → 86%Before kickoff −19 · On the field +56: Scoreboard +42, Clock +3

Points of win probability, from Florida International's side.

Closest call

FIU 27-26 CLT (2016) - Florida International dropped to a 5.1% win probability before pulling it out.