2018 · Week 5 · Sep 29, 2018 · FIU Stadium
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Win probability · FIU
modelFIU aheadUAPB aheadconfidence bandkey playFIU scoreUAPB score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:12 · Romelo Brooks run for 1 yd to the ArkPB 8
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- FG · Q1 11:58: Jamie Gillan 37 yd FG GOOD — UAPB win probability +0.1 pts (now 0%) (top driver: UAPB has the ball).
- TD · Q2 13:23: James Morgan pass complete to Maurice Alexander for 20 yds for a TD Maurice Alexander fumbled, forced by A.C. Gilliam, recovered by FlaIn Austin Maloney , return for 37 yds — FIU win probability +0.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 11:08: Napoleon Maxwell run for 44 yds for a TD (Jose Borregales KICK) — FIU win probability +0.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
FIU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5UAPB made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
- Q1 11:58UAPB 4th & 2 at FIU 20, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%57% to convertField goalTheir call0.2%−0.175% to makePunt-0.3%−0.5average punt
- Q1 10:25UAPB 4th & 6 at UAPB 40, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.3%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q1 8:00FIU 4th & 4 at FIU 47, up 4Close callPunted · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.7%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 4:29FIU 4th & 6 at UAPB 6, up 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.5% before the snapGo for it99.5%−<0.131% to convertField goalTheir call99.5%91% to makePunt99.0%−0.5average punt
- Q1 4:29UAPB 4th & 12 at UAPB 23, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.3%−0.222% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%average punt
- Q2 12:03UAPB 4th & 12 at UAPB 3, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.219% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q2 11:08UAPB 4th & 9 at UAPB 20, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q2 7:42UAPB 4th & 26 at UAPB 27, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.1%−0.26% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q2 5:48FIU 4th & 6 at FIU 14, up 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q2 0:06UAPB 4th & 6 at FIU 33, down 35Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.140% to convertField goalTheir call0.2%49% to makePunt0.1%−0.1average punt
- Q3 14:48UAPB 4th & 7 at UAPB 28, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q3 9:43FIU 4th & 5 at UAPB 23, up 42Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.140% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%70% to makePunt99.5%−0.4average punt
- Q3 1:37UAPB 4th & 18 at FIU 28, down 45Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.1%−0.112% to convertField goalTheir call0.0%60% to makePunt-0.3%−0.3average punt
- Q4 15:00UAPB 4th & 7 at UAPB 28, down 49Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.1%average punt
- Q4 9:12UAPB 4th & 1 at FIU 14, down 49Close callKicked a field goal · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%71% to convertField goalTheir call-0.1%−0.184% to makePunt-0.3%−0.3average punt
- Q4 9:12FIU 4th & 2 at UAPB 13, up 46Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 100.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%56% to convertField goal99.9%−0.185% to makePunt99.4%−0.5average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FIU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 10:25FIU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:17FIU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:08FIU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:42FIU Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 14:48FIU Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:40FIU Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.1%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUAPBDrive 1FG9 plays · 55 yds · 3:020% → 0%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
99.8%
Skyler Perry pass complete to Jeremy Brown for 4 yds to the FlaIn 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 2TD4 plays · 83 yds · 1:33100% → 100%
Q1 10:25
3RD & 3
OWN 24
+76
99.7%
James Morgan pass complete to Maurice Alexander for 76 yds for a TD (Jose Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 3PUNT6 plays · 15 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q1 10:25
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+2
99.7%
Skyler Perry pass complete to Jamal Gladden for 2 yds to the ArkPB 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 17 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
99.7%
James Morgan pass complete to Maurice Alexander for 11 yds to the FlaIn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
99.7%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Maurice Alexander, broken up by Shufon AlcornSimilar
Q1 8:00
4TH & 4
OWN 47
0
99.7%
Stone Wilson punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Tyrin Ralph at the ArkPB 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 5INT3 plays · -2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q1 6:51
3RD & 12
OWN 12
+11
99.6%
Skyler Perry pass intercepted Richard Dames return for 11 yds to the ArkPB 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 6FG4 plays · 3 yds · 1:25100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 7PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
FIUDrive 8TD1 play · 52 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q1 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+52
99.6%
James Morgan pass complete to CJ Worton for 52 yds for a TD FLORIDA INTL Penalty, false start (Jordan Budwig) to the FlaIn 7 (Jose Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 9FUMBLE8 plays · 75 yds · 2:170% → 1%
Q1 2:17
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+9
99.6%
Skyler Perry pass complete to Kolby McNeal for 9 yds to the ArkPB 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+6
99.5%
Skyler Perry pass complete to Taeyler Porter for 6 yds to the FlaIn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+41
99.5%
Skyler Perry pass complete to Jeremy Brown for 41 yds Jeremy Brown fumbled, recovered by FlaInSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 10TD3 plays · 80 yds · 0:58100% → 100%
Q2 14:21
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+11
99.5%
James Morgan pass complete to Cadarius Gaskin for 11 yds to the FlaIn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+37
99.7%
James Morgan pass complete to Maurice Alexander for 20 yds for a TD Maurice Alexander fumbled, forced by A.C. Gilliam, recovered by FlaIn Austin Maloney , return for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 11PUNT6 plays · -22 yds · 1:200% → 0%
Q2 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-1
99.7%
Skyler Perry pass complete to Tyrin Ralph for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkPB 4Similar
Q2 13:23
2ND & 11
OWN 4
-2
99.7%
Skyler Perry pass complete to Tyrin Ralph for a loss of 2 yards Tyrin Ralph fumbled, forced by Edwin Freeman, recovered by ArkPB Jayden GloverSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 12TD1 play · 44 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
99.8%
Napoleon Maxwell run for 44 yds for a TD (Jose Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 13PUNT6 plays · 12 yds · 0:000% → 0%
FIUDrive 14TD6 plays · 80 yds · 2:00100% → 100%
UAPBDrive 15PUNT7 plays · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
99.9%
Skyler Perry pass complete to Jeremy Brown for 18 yds to the ArkPB 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:42
3RD & 29
OWN 24
+4
99.9%
Tryvarious Cole run for 4 yds to the ArkPB 27 Tryvarious Cole fumbled, forced by Jordan Woods, recovered by ArkPB Jeremy Brown ARK PINE BLUFF Penalty, IF ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 7:42
4TH & 26
OWN 27
+17
99.9%
Jamie Gillan punt for 58 yds , Maurice Alexander returns for 17 yds to the FlaIn 44 FLORIDA INTL Penalty, IB (22 Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
UAPBDrive 17MISSED FG11 plays · 28 yds · 4:210% → 0%
Q2 4:27
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+8
99.9%
Skyler Perry pass complete to Tyrin Ralph for 8 yds to the FlaIn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
99.9%
Skyler Perry pass complete to Orion Smith for 1 yd to the FlaIn 46Similar
Q2 4:27
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+7
99.9%
Skyler Perry pass complete to Orion Smith for 7 yds to the FlaIn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 18END OF HALF1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 19TD2 plays · 75 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
99.9%
James Morgan pass complete to Cadarius Gaskin for 75 yds for a TD (Jose Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 21FG9 plays · 30 yds · 3:37100% → 100%
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
99.9%
Christian Alexander run for no gain to the FlaIn 48 Christian Alexander fumbled, recovered by FlaIn Napoleon Maxwell , return for 1 yd to the FlaIn 48Similar
Q3 13:20
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+12
99.9%
Christian Alexander pass complete to Tony Gaiter IV for 12 yds to the ArkPB 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:42
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+9
99.9%
Christian Alexander pass complete to Ivan Thomas for 9 yds to the ArkPB 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:42
3RD & 5
OPP 23
0
99.9%
Christian Alexander pass incomplete to Ivan Thomas, broken up by Shawn SteeleSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 22FG14 plays · 47 yds · 8:060% → 0%
Q3 2:58
2ND & 15
OPP 25
-6
100.0%
Skyler Perry sacked by Milord Juste and Anthony Johnson for a loss of 6 yards to the FlaIn 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 23TD3 plays · 75 yds · 0:57100% → 100%
UAPBDrive 24FG13 plays · 61 yds · 6:280% → 0%
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
100.0%
ARK PINE BLUFF Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the ArkPB 20Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+4
100.0%
C Robinson Ii pass complete to Tyrin Ralph for 4 yds to the ArkPB 24Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+15
100.0%
Robinson II, C pass complete to Ralph, Tyrin for loss of 3 yards to the FIU41 (JACQUES-LOUIS,R), PENALTY FIU face mask (JACQUES-LOUIS,R) 15 yards to the FIU23, 1ST DOWN UAPB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:14
4TH & 6
OPP 19
+5
100.0%
Gillan, Jamie field goal attempt from 36 MISSED - wide left,, clock 09:14, PENALTY FIU roughing the kicker (POWELL, Josh) 5 yards to the FIU14, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 25END OF GAME14 plays · 67 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+26
100.0%
Christian Alexander pass complete to Darrius Scott for 26 yds to the ArkPB 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 13:23
James Morgan pass complete to Maurice Alexander for 20 yds for a TD Maurice Alexander fumbled, forced by A.C. Gilliam, recovered by FlaIn Austin Maloney , return for 37 yds
+0.2
TD · Q2 11:08
Napoleon Maxwell run for 44 yds for a TD (Jose Borregales KICK)
+0.2
FG · Q1 11:58
Jamie Gillan 37 yd FG GOOD
-0.1