Florida International

Profile vs. FBS, 2019

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1350th
  Defense+0.1053rd
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense42.4%40th
  Defense43.5%43rd
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.1632nd
  Defense+1.2054th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.0440th
  Defense+0.217th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.2565th
  Defense+0.0288th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense47.8%50th
  Defense48.3%43rd
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense31.3%29th
  Defense33.1%53rd
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.7326th
  Defense3.1618th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense19.5%50th
  Defense19.0%45th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense18.1%65th
  Defense18.7%34th

Percentiles among the 130 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2019

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Florida International allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   TULN
2. L
   WKU
3. W
   UNH
4. L
   LT
5. W
   MASS
6. W
   CLT
7. W
   UTEP
8. L
   MTSU
9. W
   ODU
10. L
    FAU
11. W
    MIA
12. L
    MRSH
13. L
    ARST

Bars above the line: better than expected for Florida International.

Players, 2019

1. James MorganQB286 plays · +0.201 pts/play · 75th of 228 QBs
   1.07WAR0.61 to 1.49
2. Anthony JonesRB147 plays · +0.158 pts/play · 83rd of 349 RBs
   0.44WAR0.32 to 0.57
3. Napoleon MaxwellRB100 plays · +0.210 pts/play · 102nd of 349 RBs
   0.39WAR0.30 to 0.48
4. Shemar ThorntonWR67 plays · +0.129 pts/play · 101st of 439 WRs
   0.16WAR0.08 to 0.24
5. Jose BorregalesPK22 plays · +0.358 pts/play · 32nd of 114 kickers
   0.15WAR0.07 to 0.22
6. Austin MaloneyWR40 plays · +0.193 pts/play · 129th of 439 WRs
   0.14WAR0.10 to 0.20
7. Kaylan WigginsQB33 plays · +0.219 pts/play · 199th of 228 QBs
   0.14WAR0.03 to 0.26
8. Tony Gaiter IVWR49 plays · +0.130 pts/play · 171st of 439 WRs
   0.12WAR0.07 to 0.18

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Florida International's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2019

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  53353373rd of 130Roster talent: 533, 73rd of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  14614682nd of 130Recruiting: 146, 82nd of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  79%79%24th of 130Returning production: 79%, 24th of 130 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  −7.0−7.097th of 130SP+ rating: −7.0, 97th of 130 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2019

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Florida International's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 8 clear-cut ones account for 0.15 of the 0.23 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs WKUQ4 4:09 4th & 16 at WKU 16, down 6Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−3.7 pts
2. vs WKUQ3 2:01 4th & 1 at FIU 16, down 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−3.2 pts
3. at FAUQ2 0:32 4th & 15 at FAU 21, down 6Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−1.9 pts
4. at MTSUQ3 10:30 4th & 1 at FIU 34, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.5 pts
5. vs UNHQ3 13:03 4th & 1 at FIU 32, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.4 pts
6. at ARSTQ2 5:30 4th & 2 at ARST 8, down 10Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.3 pts
7. vs MIAQ3 14:50 4th & 6 at MIA 38, up 13Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.3 pts
8. vs WKUQ4 12:26 4th & 6 at WKU 10, down 6Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−1.2 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2019

112th of 130 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Florida International's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   TULN
2. L

   WKU
3. W

   UNH
4. L

   LT
5. W

   MASS
6. W

   CLT
7. W

   UTEP
8. L

   MTSU
9. W

   ODU
10. L

    FAU
11. W

    MIA
12. L

    MRSH
13. L

    ARST

What moved it, 2019

Every game starts at Florida International's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−1.49
• Possession & field position+0.03
• Clock−0.07
• Timeouts+0.16
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.05

Game by game

• TULNL 14-42 at TULN44% → 0%Before kickoff −6 · On the field −44: Scoreboard −43
• WKUL 14-20 vs WKU69% → 15%Before kickoff +19 · On the field −54: Scoreboard −49, Possession & field position +2
• UNHW 30-17 vs UNH87% → 99%Before kickoff +37 · On the field +12: Scoreboard +18, Timeouts +1
• LTL 31-43 at LT31% → 3%Before kickoff −19 · On the field −28: Scoreboard −31, Possession & field position +1
• MASSW 44-0 vs MASS97% → 100%Before kickoff +47 · On the field +3: Scoreboard +5
• CLTW 48-23 vs CLT68% → 100%Before kickoff +18 · On the field +32: Scoreboard +32
• UTEPW 32-17 vs UTEP95% → 99%Before kickoff +45 · On the field +4: Scoreboard +9
• MTSUL 17-50 at MTSU57% → 0%Before kickoff +7 · On the field −57: Scoreboard −51, Timeouts −1
• ODUW 24-17 vs ODU90% → 97%Before kickoff +40 · On the field +6: Scoreboard +15
• FAUL 7-37 at FAU25% → 0%Before kickoff −25 · On the field −24: Scoreboard −26
• MIAW 30-24 vs MIA10% → 97%Before kickoff −40 · On the field +87: Scoreboard +43, Timeouts +2
• MRSHL 27-30 at MRSH26% → 14%Before kickoff −24 · On the field −12: Scoreboard −30, Timeouts +17
• ARSTL 26-34 at ARST58% → 3%Before kickoff +8 · On the field −56: Scoreboard −41, Timeouts −3

Points of win probability, from Florida International's side.

Closest call

FIU 27-26 CLT (2016) - Florida International dropped to a 5.1% win probability before pulling it out.