2019 · Week 3 · Sep 14, 2019 · FIU Stadium
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Win probability · FIU
modelFIU aheadUNH aheadconfidence bandkey playFIU scoreUNH score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:03 · Tommy Heatherly punt for 56 yds, downed at the NHamp 12
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 0:38: Max Brosmer pass complete to Brian Espanet for 7 yds for a TD, (Jason Hughes KICK) — UNH win probability +3.6 pts (now 20%) (top driver: UNH has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:20: Max Brosmer pass complete to Dylan Laube for 86 yds for a TD, (Jason Hughes KICK) — UNH win probability +12.4 pts (now 36%) (top driver: UNH has the ball).
- TD · Q3 6:57: Kaylan Wiggins run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jose Borregales KICK) — FIU win probability +9.6 pts (now 80%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 8:36: Dimitry Prophete 10 Yd Punt Return (Jose Borregales Kick) — FIU win probability +17.2 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UNH has the ball).
- FG · Q4 1:44: Jose Borregales 20 yd FG GOOD — FIU win probability +2.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
FIU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7UNH made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
- Q1 11:53FIU 4th & 7 at UNH 14, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.2% before the snapGo for it81.1%−<0.134% to convertField goalTheir call81.2%84% to makePunt80.7%−0.4average punt
- Q1 9:09UNH 4th & 4 at FIU 24, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 19.9% before the snapGo for it19.9%47% to convertField goalTheir call19.9%−<0.168% to makePunt19.4%−0.5average punt
- Q2 14:36UNH 4th & 3 at FIU 49, down 3Close callPunted · 22.2% before the snapGo for it22.4%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.1%−0.3average punt
- Q2 13:26FIU 4th & 7 at FIU 40, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.2% before the snapGo for it77.2%−0.237% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call77.4%average punt
- Q2 2:06FIU 4th & 10 at UNH 15, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.5% before the snapGo for it74.2%−0.727% to convertField goalTheir call74.9%83% to makePunt70.8%−4.1average punt
- Q2 1:05UNH 4th & 4 at FIU 46, down 3Close callPunted · 26.4% before the snapGo for it26.2%48% to convertField goal25.1%−1.023% to makePuntTheir call25.5%−0.6average punt
- Q3 13:03UNH 4th & 11 at FIU 23, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.8% before the snapGo for it23.9%−1.525% to convertField goalTheir call25.4%70% to makePunt19.0%−6.4average punt
- Q3 13:03FIU 4th & 1 at FIU 32, up 3Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 74.3% before the snapGo for it75.3%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call74.0%−1.4average punt
- Q3 6:00UNH 4th & 2 at UNH 45, down 3Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 28.6% before the snapGo for it29.2%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call28.0%−1.2average punt
- Q3 5:14FIU 4th & 11 at FIU 46, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.9% before the snapGo for it71.3%−1.726% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call73.1%average punt
- Q4 15:00UNH 4th & 13 at UNH 47, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.6% before the snapGo for it25.5%−2.620% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call28.0%average punt
- Q4 14:51FIU 4th & 8 at FIU 36, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.8% before the snapGo for it69.0%−1.834% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call70.8%average punt
- Q4 8:36UNH 4th & 7 at UNH 14, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.8% before the snapGo for it23.2%−1.335% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.5%average punt
- Q4 7:11UNH 4th & 14 at UNH 11, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.5% before the snapGo for it6.8%−1.117% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.9%average punt
- Q4 1:44FIU 4th & 1 at UNH 3, up 10Close callKicked a field goal · 95.2% before the snapGo for it95.2%63% to convertField goalTheir call94.3%−0.993% to makePunt92.2%−3.0average punt
- Q4 1:44UNH 4th & 8 at UNH 27, down 13Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.9%33% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt2.4%−0.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FIU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4UNH made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 6:36FIU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call80.4%97% to makeGo for two80.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:38UNH Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call24.0%97% to makeGo for two23.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:36FIU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call78.8%97% to makeGo for two78.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:20UNH Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call39.6%97% to makeGo for two39.4%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 6:57FIU Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call73.0%97% to makeGo for two72.9%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 8:36FIU Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.7%97% to makeGo for two90.4%−0.345% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartFIUDrive 1MISSED FG9 plays · 51 yds · 3:0787% → 86%
UNHDrive 2FG9 plays · 56 yds · 2:4414% → 16%
Q1 11:53
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+12
85.6%
Carlos Washington Jr. run for 12 yds to the NHamp 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
85.5%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Malik Love for 15 yds to the FlaIn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:53
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+6
85.4%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Charles Briscoe III for 6 yds to the FlaIn 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 3TD8 plays · 80 yds · 2:3385% → 85%
Q1 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+43
84.6%
Kaylan Wiggins run for 28 yds to the FLAINTL 33 for a 1ST down NEW HAMPSHIRE Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the NHamp 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:09
3RD & 10
OPP 18
+17
84.8%
Kaylan Wiggins pass complete to Tony Gaiter IV for 17 yds to the NHamp 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNHDrive 4TD16 plays · 75 yds · 5:5815% → 20%
Q1 6:36
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+13
84.6%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Brian Espanet for 13 yds to the NHamp 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
84.3%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Justin Malone-Woods for 8 yds to the NHamp 48Similar
Q1 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
84.1%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Malik Love for 7 yds to the FlaIn 42Similar
Q1 6:36
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+9
84.1%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Malik Love for 9 yds to the FlaIn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:36
3RD & 9
OPP 32
+14
83.3%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Brian Espanet for 14 yds to the FlaIn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
82.9%
Max Brosmer pass incomplete to Charles Briscoe III, broken up by Sage LewisSimilar
Q1 2:36
3RD & 9
OPP 17
+5
83.3%
Brosmer,Max pass complete to Espanet,Brian for 5 yards to the FIU12 (LEWIS,S;GATES,J), PENALTY FIU OF (OLIVER,K) 5 yards to the FIU12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:36
3RD & 4
OPP 12
+5
83.3%
FLORIDA INTL Penalty, OF (Teair Tart) to the FlaIn 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
79.6%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Brian Espanet for 7 yds for a TD, (Jason Hughes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 5TD4 plays · 72 yds · 1:0281% → 84%
Q2 14:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
83.8%
Kaylan Wiggins run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jose Borregales PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNHDrive 6PUNT6 plays · 26 yds · 0:0017% → 18%
Q2 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
82.7%
Carlos Washington Jr. run for 4 yds to the NHamp 29 for a 1ST down FLORIDA INTL Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Teair Tart) to the NHamp 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
81.9%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Malik Love for 7 yds to the FlaIn 49Similar
Q2 14:36
4TH & 3
OPP 49
+3
82.3%
Drew Sanborn punt for 47 yds , Maurice Alexander returns for 3 yds to the FlaIn 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 7PUNT8 plays · 35 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
UNHDrive 8INT11 plays · 41 yds · 2:4919% → 20%
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
81.5%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Charles Briscoe III for 9 yds to the NHamp 29Similar
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
81.2%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Malik Love for 8 yds to the NHamp 41Similar
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+17
80.4%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Justin Malone-Woods for 17 yds to the FlaIn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:28
3RD & 9
OPP 39
+4
80.5%
Max Brosmer pass intercepted Sage Lewis return for 4 yds to the FlaIn 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 9MISSED FG10 plays · 54 yds · 4:0081% → 80%
Q2 6:06
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+15
83.1%
WIGGINS,K pass incomplete to GAITER,T, QB hurry by Williams,Zedane, PENALTY UNH roughing passer (Williams,Zedane) 15 yards to the UNH15, 1ST DOWN FIU, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNHDrive 10PUNT10 plays · 34 yds · 1:0120% → 23%
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
79.4%
Brosmer,Max pass incomplete to Love,Malik (GATES,J), PENALTY FIU illegal use of hands (WHITTAKER,C) 15 yards to the UNH48, 1ST DOWN UNH, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
77.9%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Malik Love for 6 yds to the FlaIn 46Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 4
OPP 46
0
76.9%
Max Brosmer pass incomplete to Justin Malone-Woods, broken up by Sage LewisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 11END OF HALF1 play · 1 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNHDrive 12MISSED FG7 plays · 52 yds · 1:5723% → 23%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+50
77.3%
Evan Gray run for 35 yds to the FLAINTL 37 for a 1ST down FLORIDA INTL Penalty, personal foul (Richard Dames) to the FlaIn 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 13PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0078% → 77%
Q3 13:03
3RD & 8
OWN 25
+7
77.0%
Kaylan Wiggins pass complete to Shemar Thornton for 7 yds to the FlaIn 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNHDrive 14TD2 plays · 88 yds · 0:4824% → 36%
FIUDrive 15TD9 plays · 67 yds · 3:2365% → 80%
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
65.1%
WIGGINS,K pass complete to MAXWELL,N for 5 yards to the FIU38, fumble forced by 54, fumble by MAXWELL,N recovered by FIU TOWNSEND,D at FIU40, TOWNSEND,D for loss of 7 yards to the FIU33, out-of-bounds, PENALTY UNH illegal use of hands (Ammerman,Riley) 15 yards to the FIU48, 1ST DOWN FIU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
67.7%
Kaylan Wiggins pass complete to Shemar Thornton for 1 yd to the FlaIn 49Similar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+26
68.3%
Kaylan Wiggins pass complete to Sterling Palmer for 26 yds to the NHamp 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
70.0%
Napoleon Maxwell run for 1 yd to the NHamp 9 for a 1ST down NEW HAMPSHIRE Penalty, illegal use of hands (Robbie Schumacher) to the NHamp 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNHDrive 16PUNT7 plays · 20 yds · 0:5725% → 26%
Q3 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
74.6%
Carlos Washington Jr. run for 12 yds to the NHamp 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:57
2ND & 6
OWN 41
0
71.9%
Max Brosmer pass incomplete to Malik Love, broken up by Jamal GatesSimilar
Q3 6:00
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+4
73.5%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Carlos Washington Jr. for 4 yds to the NHamp 45Similar
Q3 6:00
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
74.5%
Drew Sanborn punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Maurice Alexander at the FlaIn 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 17PUNT9 plays · 36 yds · 0:0077% → 76%
UNHDrive 18PUNT6 plays · 27 yds · 2:0625% → 24%
FIUDrive 19PUNT10 plays · 35 yds · 0:0074% → 73%
Q4 14:51
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+5
74.3%
Kaylan Wiggins pass complete to Sterling Palmer for 5 yds to the FlaIn 27Similar
Q4 14:51
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+7
73.9%
Kaylan Wiggins pass complete to Shemar Thornton for 7 yds to the FlaIn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:51
3RD & 8
OWN 36
0
74.4%
Kaylan Wiggins pass incomplete to Shemar Thornton FLORIDA INTL Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 14:51
4TH & 8
OWN 36
-3
73.1%
Tommy Heatherly punt for 50 yds , Pop Lacey returns for a loss of 3 yards to the NHamp 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNHDrive 20PUNT TD4 plays · 3 yds · 2:0726% → 7%
Q4 10:43
3RD & 4
OWN 17
-3
75.5%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Dylan Laube for a loss of 3 yards to the NHamp 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNHDrive 21PUNT7 plays · -4 yds · 1:258% → 7%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 22FG12 plays · 43 yds · 5:1694% → 99%
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:36
Dimitry Prophete 10 Yd Punt Return (Jose Borregales Kick)
+17.2
TD · Q3 10:20
Max Brosmer pass complete to Dylan Laube for 86 yds for a TD, (Jason Hughes KICK)
-12.4
TD · Q3 6:57
Kaylan Wiggins run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jose Borregales KICK)
+9.6