2019 · Week 6 · Oct 5, 2019 · FIU Stadium
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Win probability · FIU
modelFIU aheadMASS aheadconfidence bandkey playFIU scoreMASS score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:39 · Demarcus Townsend run for 1 yd to the UMass 13
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- FG · Q1 9:06: Jose Borregales 22 yd FG GOOD — MASS win probability +0.6 pts (now 4%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
- TD · Q1 3:57: Anthony Jones run for 6 yds for a TD, (Jose Borregales KICK) — FIU win probability +0.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
- TD · Q1 0:53: James Morgan pass complete to Tony Gaiter IV for 30 yds for a TD, (Jose Borregales KICK) — FIU win probability +1.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 14:33: THIELE,E kickoff 62 yards to the UMASS3, RODGERS, Isaiah return to the UMASS15 (WILLIAMS,K), PENALTY FIU OF (JACQUES-LOUIS,R) 5 yards to the FIU30, NO PLAY. — FIU win probability +1.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:36: Napoleon Maxwell run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jose Borregales KICK) — FIU win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
FIU made the numbers' call on 4 of 8MASS made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
- Q1 15:00MASS 4th & 1 at midfield, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call4.5%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt4.4%−0.2average punt
- Q1 9:06FIU 4th & 2 at MASS 5, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 94.4% before the snapGo for it94.3%51% to convertField goalTheir call94.3%−0.192% to makePunt93.8%−0.6average punt
- Q1 9:06MASS 4th & 14 at MASS 21, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.5% before the snapGo for it5.4%−0.217% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.6%average punt
- Q2 14:33MASS 4th & 10 at MASS 43, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.5% before the snapGo for it4.4%−0.329% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.7%average punt
- Q2 14:33MASS 4th & 6 at MASS 38, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snapGo for it2.1%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.1%average punt
- Q2 13:07FIU 4th & 2 at MASS 30, up 31Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.0%57% to convertField goal97.9%−0.156% to makePunt97.8%−0.2average punt
- Q2 7:07FIU 4th & 9 at MASS 12, up 31Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.7% before the snapGo for it98.6%−0.127% to convertField goalTheir call98.6%86% to makePunt98.2%−0.4average punt
- Q2 7:07MASS 4th & 14 at MASS 47, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snapGo for it1.6%−0.119% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.7%average punt
- Q2 2:47MASS 4th & 5 at MASS 48, down 31Close callPunted · 1.0% before the snapGo for it1.0%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 15:00FIU 4th & 3 at FIU 45, up 34Close callPunted · 99.3% before the snapGo for it99.4%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.4%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 4:36MASS 4th & 6 at MASS 29, down 41Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 1:03FIU 4th & 8 at MASS 28, up 41Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%−<0.134% to convertField goalTheir call99.8%60% to makePunt99.5%−0.3average punt
- Q3 1:03MASS 4th & 6 at MASS 49, down 44Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 15:00FIU 4th & 2 at FIU 28, up 44Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%−0.1average punt
- Q4 12:48MASS 4th & 20 at MASS 25, down 44Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.29% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 11:05FIU 4th & 3 at FIU 49, up 44Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%−0.1average punt
- Q4 7:26MASS 4th & 15 at MASS 6, down 44Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.114% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 5:39FIU 4th & 1 at MASS 33, up 44Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%71% to convertField goal99.8%−0.249% to makePunt99.7%−0.2average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FIU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 3:57FIU Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.0%97% to makeGo for two94.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:53FIU Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.5%97% to makeGo for two94.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:36FIU Touchdown, up 40 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartMASSDrive 1FUMBLE8 plays · 19 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+7
96.7%
Michael Curtis pass complete to Samuel Emilus for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
50
-6
96.7%
Michael Curtis run for a loss of 6 yards to the UMass 44 Michael Curtis fumbled, forced by Olin Cushion III, recovered by FlaIn Olin Cushion IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 2FG9 plays · 39 yds · 3:4596% → 96%
Q1 12:51
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+4
96.4%
James Morgan pass complete to Sterling Palmer for 4 yds to the UMass 40Similar
Q1 12:51
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+11
96.4%
James Morgan pass complete to Tony Gaiter IV for 11 yds to the UMass 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
96.4%
James Morgan pass complete to Anthony Jones for 4 yds to the UMass 9Similar
Q1 12:51
3RD & 6
OPP 9
+4
96.4%
James Morgan pass complete to Sterling Palmer for 4 yds to the UMass 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 3PUNT7 plays · -4 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 9:06
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-10
95.8%
CURTIS, Michael pass complete to DINGLE, Brennon for 5 yards to the UMASS35 (CUSHION,O;LEWIS,S), PENALTY UMASS holding (HORN, Kyle) 10 yards to the UMASS20, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 4TD9 plays · 69 yds · 3:2195% → 96%
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-10
95.4%
MAXWELL,N rush for 29 yards to the UMASS40, out-of-bounds (BOWE JR., J.), PENALTY FIU holding (WILLIAMS,S) 10 yards to the FIU21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:18
1ST & 20
OWN 21
+14
95.4%
James Morgan pass complete to Tony Gaiter IV for 14 yds to the FlaIn 35Similar
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+22
95.6%
James Morgan pass complete to Austin Maloney for 22 yds to the UMass 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 5INT6 plays · 13 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q1 3:57
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+5
95.3%
Michael Curtis pass intercepted Sage Lewis return for 5 yds to the UMass 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 6TD5 plays · 47 yds · 1:5095% → 97%
Q1 2:43
3RD & 4
OPP 41
+17
95.4%
Anthony Jones run for 2 yds to the UMass 39 for a 1ST down MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Jake Byczko) to the UMass 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:53
2ND & 16
OPP 30
+30
96.6%
James Morgan pass complete to Tony Gaiter IV for 30 yds for a TD, (Jose Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 7PUNT RETURN TD6 plays · 18 yds · 1:204% → 3%
Q1 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
96.2%
Michael Curtis pass complete to Josiah Johnson for 18 yds to the UMass 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 43
0
96.4%
Michael Curtis pass incomplete to Josiah Johnson, broken up by Dorian HallSimilar
Q2 14:33
4TH & 10
OWN 43
+90
97.4%
George Georgopoulos punt for 47 yds , Maurice Alexander returns for 90 yds for a TD, (Jose Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 8TD1 play · 0 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 14:33
1ST & GOAL
OWN 35
-5
98.5%
THIELE,E kickoff 62 yards to the UMASS3, RODGERS, Isaiah return to the UMASS15 (WILLIAMS,K), PENALTY FIU OF (JACQUES-LOUIS,R) 5 yards to the FIU30, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:002% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 10FG14 plays · 68 yds · 6:0099% → 99%
Q2 13:07
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+18
98.6%
James Morgan pass complete to Tony Gaiter IV for 18 yds to the FlaIn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:07
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+3
98.7%
James Morgan pass complete to Sterling Palmer for 3 yds to the UMass 32Similar
Q2 13:07
4TH & 2
OPP 30
+17
98.5%
James Morgan pass complete to Anthony Jones for 17 yds to the UMass 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 11PUNT7 plays · 22 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 7:07
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+26
98.6%
Michael Curtis pass complete to Jessie Britt for 26 yds to the FlaIn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:07
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-6
98.5%
Michael Curtis sacked by Chris Whittaker for a loss of 6 yards to the UMass 45Similar
Q2 7:07
4TH & 14
OWN 47
0
98.6%
George Georgopoulos punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Maurice Alexander at the FlaIn 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 12FUMBLE6 plays · 45 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 4:57
3RD & 5
OWN 17
+11
99.1%
James Morgan pass complete to Sterling Palmer for 11 yds to the FlaIn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:57
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+20
99.1%
James Morgan pass complete to Shemar Thornton for 20 yds Shemar Thornton fumbled, forced by James Bowe Jr., recovered by UMass Martin MangramSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
99.2%
Michael Curtis pass complete to Josiah Johnson for 9 yds to the FLAINTL 48 MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the UMass 42Similar
Q2 2:47
1ST & 11
OWN 42
+6
99.2%
Michael Curtis pass complete to Josiah Johnson for 6 yds to the UMass 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 14TD12 plays · 80 yds · 1:5099% → 99%
Q2 1:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+10
99.4%
James Morgan pass complete to Tony Gaiter IV for 10 yds to the FlaIn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+10
99.4%
James Morgan pass complete to Shemar Thornton for 10 yds to the UMass 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+18
99.4%
James Morgan pass complete to Maurice Alexander for 18 yds to the UMass 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
99.4%
James Morgan pass complete to Austin Maloney for 25 yds for a TD, (Jose Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 16PUNT7 plays · 20 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-9
99.5%
James Morgan sacked by Chinedu Ogbonna for a loss of 9 yards to the FlaIn 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 19
OWN 29
+16
99.5%
James Morgan pass complete to Tony Gaiter IV for 16 yds to the FlaIn 45Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 45
0
99.5%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Austin Maloney, broken up by Xavier SteeleSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 45
0
99.5%
TEAM punt blocked by blocked by Samuel Emilus return for a loss of 10 yards to the UMass 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 17INT5 plays · 15 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 12:35
3RD & 9
OPP 37
0
99.6%
Michael Curtis pass intercepted Rishard Dames return for no gain to the FlaIn 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 18TD12 plays · 73 yds · 6:12100% → 100%
MASSDrive 19PUNT6 plays · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 4:36
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+5
99.8%
Randall West pass complete to Melvin Hill for 5 yds to the UMass 29Similar
Q3 4:36
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+50
99.8%
George Georgopoulos punt for 51 yds , Maurice Alexander returns for 50 yds to the FLAINTL 21 MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, IB (Bilal Ally) to the FlaIn 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 20FG6 plays · 57 yds · 1:43100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 21PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 22PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 28
+15
99.9%
Tommy Heatherly punt for 52 yds , Isaiah Rodgers returns for 15 yds to the UMass 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 23PUNT4 plays · -10 yds · 0:000% → 0%
FIUDrive 24PUNT7 plays · 21 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 25PUNT4 plays · -5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 26END OF GAME8 plays · 29 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 0:53
James Morgan pass complete to Tony Gaiter IV for 30 yds for a TD, (Jose Borregales KICK)
+1.1
TD · Q2 14:33
THIELE,E kickoff 62 yards to the UMASS3, RODGERS, Isaiah return to the UMASS15 (WILLIAMS,K), PENALTY FIU OF (JACQUES-LOUIS,R) 5 yards to the FIU30, NO PLAY.
+1.1
FG · Q1 9:06
Jose Borregales 22 yd FG GOOD
-0.6