2019 · Week 8 · Oct 19, 2019 · FIU Stadium
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Win probability · FIU
modelFIU aheadUTEP aheadconfidence bandkey playFIU scoreUTEP score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:24 · Jose Borregales 32 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 5:06: Treyvon Hughes run for 1 yd for a TD, (Gavin Baechle KICK) — UTEP win probability +0.8 pts (now 8%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
- TD · Q2 14:27: James Morgan pass complete to Shemar Thornton for 9 yds for a TD, (Jose Borregales KICK) — FIU win probability +1.2 pts (now 92%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 14:21: Anthony Jones run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jose Borregales KICK) — FIU win probability +5.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 3:43: Napoleon Maxwell run for 10 yds for a TD, (Jose Borregales KICK) — FIU win probability +2.6 pts (now 100%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 2:06: Kai Locksley pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 34 yds for a TD, (Gavin Baechle KICK) — UTEP win probability +3.2 pts (now 4%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
FIU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5UTEP made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
- Q1 12:24FIU 4th & 3 at UTEP 15, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 93.1% before the snapGo for it93.1%51% to convertField goalTheir call93.0%−<0.183% to makePunt92.6%−0.5average punt
- Q1 5:06UTEP 4th & 1 at FIU 1, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call8.7%59% to convertField goal8.5%−0.394% to makePunt7.8%−1.0average punt
- Q2 10:19FIU 4th & 5 at UTEP 17, up 5Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.3% before the snapGo for it89.1%−0.140% to convertField goalTheir call89.1%80% to makePunt87.5%−1.6average punt
- Q2 10:19UTEP 4th & 16 at UTEP 18, down 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.7% before the snapGo for it8.1%−0.614% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.7%average punt
- Q2 4:48FIU 4th & 5 at UTEP 29, up 8Close callKicked a field goal · 90.1% before the snapGo for it89.9%41% to convertField goalTheir call89.9%−0.158% to makePunt88.4%−1.5average punt
- Q2 1:23UTEP 4th & 1 at UTEP 44, down 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call9.2%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt8.8%−0.5average punt
- Q2 1:23UTEP 4th & 7 at UTEP 49, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.8% before the snapGo for it8.6%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.6%average punt
- Q3 15:00FIU 4th & 5 at FIU 44, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.0% before the snapGo for it91.0%−0.241% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call91.2%average punt
- Q3 13:09UTEP 4th & 21 at UTEP 19, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.5% before the snapGo for it7.7%−1.08% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.7%average punt
- Q3 7:07FIU 4th & 7 at FIU 23, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.3% before the snapGo for it90.2%−0.835% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call90.9%average punt
- Q3 5:30UTEP 4th & 22 at UTEP 25, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.8% before the snapGo for it8.0%−1.47% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.3%average punt
- Q4 6:57UTEP 4th & 6 at FIU 6, down 18Close callKicked a field goal · 2.7% before the snapGo for it2.9%31% to convertField goalTheir call2.6%−0.391% to makePunt0.8%−2.1average punt
- Q4 3:43UTEP 4th & 2 at midfield, down 22Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.6%−<0.156% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.6%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FIU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UTEP made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
- Q1 5:06UTEP Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call9.8%97% to makeGo for two9.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:27FIU Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.6%97% to makeGo for two89.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:21FIU Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.4%97% to makeGo for two97.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 3:43FIU Touchdown, up 21 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 2:06UTEP Touchdown, down 16 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call1.8%−0.197% to makeGo for two1.9%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUTEPDrive 1INT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:005% → 5%
FIUDrive 2FG5 plays · 24 yds · 1:1695% → 95%
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+17
94.8%
Anthony Jones run for 2 yds to the UTEP 37 for a 1ST down UTEP Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the UTEP 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 3TD16 plays · 75 yds · 7:186% → 8%
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
94.5%
Brandon Jones pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 13 yds to the UTEP 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 4TD12 plays · 70 yds · 5:3992% → 92%
Q1 5:06
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+22
92.0%
James Morgan pass complete to Shemar Thornton for 22 yds to the UTEP 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:06
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+7
92.5%
James Morgan pass complete to Shemar Thornton for 7 yds to the UTEP 39Similar
Q1 5:06
3RD & 6
OPP 33
+8
92.4%
James Morgan pass complete to Napoleon Maxwell for 23 yds to the UTEP 10 for a 1ST down FLORIDA INTL Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Shemar Thornton) to the UTEP 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 25
+16
90.9%
James Morgan pass complete to Maurice Alexander for 7 yds to the UTEP 18 for a 1ST down UTEP Penalty, face mask (9 yards) (Ykili Ross) to the UTEP 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
92.0%
James Morgan pass complete to Shemar Thornton for 9 yds for a TD, (Jose Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 5SF2 plays · -10 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
92.1%
TEAM run for no gain for a SAFETY TEAM fumbled, recovered by UTEP for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 6FG10 plays · 45 yds · 3:5692% → 92%
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
91.7%
MORGAN,J pass incomplete to MALONEY,A, PENALTY UTEP pass interference (LOWE, Duron) 15 yards to the UTEP47, 1ST DOWN FIU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:15
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+11
91.7%
James Morgan pass complete to Austin Maloney for 11 yds to the UTEP 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 7PUNT8 plays · -7 yds · 0:008% → 7%
Q2 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
92.3%
UTEP Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-12 Yards) to the UTEP 13Similar
Q2 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
92.3%
Brandon Jones pass complete to Alan Busey for 4 yds to the UTEP 17Similar
Q2 10:19
3RD & 7
OWN 27
-9
92.4%
Brandon Jones sacked by Noah Curtis for a loss of 9 yards to the UTEP 18Similar
Q2 10:19
4TH & 16
OWN 18
0
92.7%
Mitchell Crawford punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 8FG6 plays · 21 yds · 1:5592% → 93%
UTEPDrive 9PUNT13 plays · 26 yds · 3:257% → 7%
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
93.0%
Brandon Jones pass incomplete to Tre'Shon Wolf, broken up by Jamal GatesSimilar
Q2 4:48
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+4
92.5%
Brandon Jones pass complete to Justin Garrett for 4 yds to the UTEP 44Similar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-3
92.6%
Brandon Jones sacked by Teair Tart and Alexy Jean-Baptiste for a loss of 3 yards to the UTEP 43Similar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 13
OWN 43
+6
93.0%
Brandon Jones pass complete to Tre'Shon Wolf for 6 yds to the UTEP 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 10PUNT6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 44
0
92.3%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Austin Maloney, broken up by Josh CaldwellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 11PUNT11 plays · 11 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q3 13:09
2ND & 10
OWN 19
-6
91.7%
Kai Locksley run for 4 yds to the UTEP 23 UTEP Penalty, Offensive holding (Ruben Guerra) to the UTEP 13Similar
Q3 13:09
2ND & 4
OWN 36
0
91.1%
TEAM run for no gain to the UTEP 13 TEAM fumbled, recovered by UTEPSimilar
Q3 13:09
3RD & 27
OWN 13
+6
92.1%
Reynaldo Flores run for 6 yds to the UTEP 19 UTEP Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 13:09
4TH & 21
OWN 19
0
92.3%
Mitchell Crawford punt for 61 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlaIn 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 12PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0092% → 91%
Q3 7:07
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
91.1%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Tony Gaiter IV, broken up by Chris RichardsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 13PUNT9 plays · -9 yds · 0:0010% → 8%
Q3 5:30
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+3
90.6%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Tre'Shon Wolf for 18 yds to the FLAINTL 48 UTEP Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Greg Long) to the UTEP 37Similar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
90.3%
LOCKSLEY, Kai rush for no gain to the UTEP37 (JACQUES-LOUIS,R), PENALTY FIU OF 5 yards to the UTEP42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 5
OWN 42
-10
89.8%
LOCKSLEY, Kai rush for no gain to the UTEP42 (CURTIS,N;POWELL,J), PENALTY UTEP holding (HENRY, Zuri) 10 yards to the UTEP32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 15
OWN 32
-8
90.8%
Kai Locksley sacked by Alexy Jean-Baptiste for a loss of 8 yards to the UTEP 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 14TD4 plays · 70 yds · 1:2492% → 98%
Q3 0:45
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+61
92.2%
James Morgan pass complete to Anthony Jones for 61 yds to the UTEP 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 15FG15 plays · 69 yds · 7:243% → 4%
Q4 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
97.0%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Tre'Shon Wolf for 7 yds to the UTEP 32Similar
Q4 14:21
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+13
96.8%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Tre'Shon Wolf for 13 yds to the UTEP 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:21
2ND & 12
OPP 44
0
96.7%
Kai Locksley pass incomplete to Kavika Johnson, broken up by Stantley Thomas-Oliver IIISimilar
Q4 14:21
3RD & 12
OPP 44
+20
96.8%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Justin Garrett for 20 yds to the FlaIn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 16TD7 plays · 86 yds · 3:1497% → 100%
Q4 3:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
99.5%
Napoleon Maxwell run for 10 yds for a TD, (Jose Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 17TD9 plays · 75 yds · 1:371% → 4%
Q4 3:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+17
99.5%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Kavika Johnson for 17 yds to the UTEP 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
99.5%
Kai Locksley pass incomplete to Justin Garrett, broken up by Rishard DamesSimilar
Q4 3:43
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+8
99.5%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Justin Garrett for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
96.2%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 34 yds for a TD, (Gavin Baechle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 18END OF GAME8 plays · 25 yds · 0:1898% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:21
Anthony Jones run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jose Borregales KICK)
+5
TD · Q4 2:06
Kai Locksley pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 34 yds for a TD, (Gavin Baechle KICK)
-3.2
TD · Q4 3:43
Napoleon Maxwell run for 10 yds for a TD, (Jose Borregales KICK)
+2.6