2019 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2019 · FIU Stadium
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Win probability · FIU
modelFIU aheadWKU aheadconfidence bandkey playFIU scoreWKU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:27 · Kaylan Wiggins run for no gain to the WKent 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 3:53: Gaej Walker run for 2 yds for a TD, (Cory Munson KICK) — WKU win probability +9.3 pts (now 51%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 6:03: Napoleon Maxwell run for 15 yds for a TD, (Jose Borregales KICK) — FIU win probability +17.6 pts (now 63%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
- FG · Q4 12:26: Cory Munson 44 yd FG GOOD — WKU win probability +12.9 pts (now 68%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 4:09: Timeout FLORIDA INTL, clock 04:09 — WKU win probability +18.8 pts (now 72%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 4:00: Gaej Walker run for 1 yd to the WKent 17 — WKU win probability +12.0 pts (now 86%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
FIU made the numbers' call on 8 of 13WKU made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
- Q1 15:00WKU 4th & 4 at WKU 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 29.6% before the snapGo for it29.6%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call29.7%average punt
- Q1 10:55FIU 4th & 7 at WKU 22, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.0% before the snapGo for it69.9%−<0.136% to convertField goalTheir call70.0%72% to makePunt69.5%−0.5average punt
- Q1 3:22WKU 4th & 3 at WKU 43, tiedClose callPunted · 31.9% before the snapGo for it32.2%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.1%−0.1average punt
- Q1 2:30FIU 4th & 1 at FIU 36, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call68.3%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt67.9%−0.4average punt
- Q2 15:00FIU 4th & 2 at FIU 46, tiedClose callPunted · 68.1% before the snapGo for it68.3%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call68.0%−0.3average punt
- Q2 14:30WKU 4th & 3 at WKU 47, tiedClose callPunted · 33.3% before the snapGo for it33.6%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.3%−0.3average punt
- Q2 11:52FIU 4th & 8 at FIU 12, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 66.1% before the snapGo for it65.8%−0.632% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call66.4%average punt
- Q2 10:20WKU 4th & 2 at WKU 38, tiedClose callPunted · 33.7% before the snapGo for it33.8%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.3%−0.6average punt
- Q2 8:53FIU 4th & 9 at FIU 17, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 65.5% before the snapGo for it64.7%−0.830% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call65.5%average punt
- Q2 3:53FIU 4th & 2 at FIU 33, down 7Close callPunted · 53.0% before the snapGo for it53.4%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call53.3%−0.2average punt
- Q2 1:45WKU 4th & 15 at WKU 26, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.6% before the snapGo for it46.4%−2.116% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call48.5%average punt
- Q2 0:27FIU 4th & 1 at WKU 35, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call52.6%71% to convertField goal52.4%−0.245% to makePunt49.9%−2.8average punt
- Q3 15:00FIU 4th & 8 at FIU 27, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.1% before the snapGo for it48.0%−1.833% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call49.8%average punt
- Q3 8:39WKU 4th & 1 at FIU 1, up 7Numbers favored go for it by 3.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 58.3% before the snapGo for it57.2%59% to convertField goalTheir call53.5%−3.794% to makePunt43.4%−13.8average punt
- Q3 4:55FIU 4th & 15 at FIU 21, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.5% before the snapGo for it47.8%−5.816% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call53.6%average punt
- Q3 4:14WKU 4th & 21 at WKU 35, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.1% before the snapGo for it43.2%−6.28% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call49.4%average punt
- Q3 2:01FIU 4th & 1 at FIU 16, down 3Numbers favored go for it by 3.2 ptsPunted · 49.2% before the snapGo for it51.3%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call48.1%−3.2average punt
- Q4 12:26WKU 4th & 11 at FIU 26, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.2% before the snapGo for it52.1%−3.226% to convertField goalTheir call55.3%64% to makePunt40.9%−14.3average punt
- Q4 12:26FIU 4th & 1 at WKU 44, down 6Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call43.4%70% to convertField goal35.1%−8.327% to makePunt37.3%−6.2average punt
- Q4 12:26FIU 4th & 6 at WKU 10, down 6Numbers favored field goal by 1.2 ptsWent for it · 43.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call41.2%−1.235% to convertField goal42.4%88% to makePunt27.6%−14.8average punt
- Q4 4:09FIU 4th & 16 at WKU 16, down 6Numbers favored field goal by 3.7 ptsWent for it · 25.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call21.6%−3.714% to convertField goal25.3%81% to makePunt13.0%−12.2average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FIU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2WKU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 8:53WKU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call32.1%97% to makeGo for two32.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 6:06FIU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call68.9%97% to makeGo for two68.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:53WKU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call45.5%97% to makeGo for two45.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:03FIU Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call52.3%97% to makeGo for two52.1%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWKUDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
69.4%
Steven Duncan pass incomplete to Lucky Jackson, broken up by Isaiah BrownSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 2MISSED FG9 plays · 28 yds · 2:3569% → 69%
WKUDrive 3TD4 plays · 78 yds · 2:0231% → 34%
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+48
68.8%
Steven Duncan pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 48 yds to the FlaIn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+22
68.3%
Steven Duncan pass complete to Kyle Fourtenbary for 22 yds to the FlaIn 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
65.7%
Steven Duncan pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for 8 yds for a TD, (Cory Munson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 4INT TD7 plays · 27 yds · 2:4734% → 33%
WKUDrive 5PUNT9 plays · 18 yds · 2:4432% → 33%
FIUDrive 6PUNT9 plays · 19 yds · 2:3068% → 68%
WKUDrive 7PUNT7 plays · 38 yds · 0:0033% → 34%
Q2 14:30
2ND & 2
OWN 17
+10
66.6%
Steven Duncan pass complete to Kyle Fourtenbary for 10 yds to the WKent 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+13
66.5%
Steven Duncan pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 13 yds to the WKent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:30
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+7
66.4%
Steven Duncan pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 7 yds to the WKent 47Similar
Q2 14:30
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
66.2%
John Haggerty punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Maurice Alexander at the FlaIn 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0067% → 66%
Q2 11:52
4TH & 8
OWN 12
-5
66.2%
Tommy Heatherly punt for 53 yds , Clayton Bush returns for a loss of 5 yards to the WKent 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0035% → 34%
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
65.5%
Steven Duncan pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 3 yds to the WKent 33Similar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+5
65.3%
Steven Duncan pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for 5 yds to the WKent 38Similar
Q2 10:20
3RD & 2
OWN 38
0
64.4%
Steven Duncan pass incomplete to Kyle Fourtenbary, broken up by Josh PowellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 10PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0067% → 66%
Q2 8:53
2ND & 6
OWN 20
-2
67.2%
James Morgan run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaIn 17 James Morgan fumbled, forced by Jaylon George, recovered by FlaIn Anthony JonesSimilar
Q2 8:53
4TH & 9
OWN 17
0
65.8%
Tommy Heatherly punt for 41 yds , Clayton Bush returns for no gain to the WKent 41 Clayton Bush fumbled, recovered by WKent Clayton BushSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 11TD10 plays · 59 yds · 3:2838% → 51%
FIUDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q2 3:53
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+52
51.6%
Tommy Heatherly punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Clayton Bush at the FLAINTL 15 FLORIDA INTL Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the WKent 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 13PUNT7 plays · 11 yds · 0:0051% → 49%
FIUDrive 14DOWNS7 plays · 38 yds · 0:2250% → 52%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 15END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0049% → 47%
WKUDrive 17FG14 plays · 79 yds · 5:0753% → 63%
Q3 13:46
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+16
47.1%
Steven Duncan pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 16 yds to the WKent 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
46.3%
Steven Duncan pass complete to Gaej Walker for 1 yd to the WKent 37Similar
Q3 13:20
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+12
46.5%
Gaej Walker run for 2 yds to the WKent 39 for a 1ST down FLORIDA INTL Penalty, Defensive holding (10 Yards) to the WKent 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:20
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+28
45.6%
Steven Duncan pass complete to Kyle Fourtenbary for 28 yds to the FlaIn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
44.1%
Steven Duncan pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 6 yds to the FlaIn 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 18TD8 plays · 75 yds · 2:3640% → 63%
WKUDrive 19INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
52.8%
Steven Duncan pass intercepted Dorian Hall return for no gain to the FlaIn 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 20PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 0:5956% → 51%
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-3
56.4%
Kaylan Wiggins run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaIn 23 Kaylan Wiggins fumbled, recovered by FlaIn Kaylan WigginsSimilar
Q3 4:55
3RD & 7
OWN 29
-8
52.7%
Kaylan Wiggins sacked by Juwuan Jones for a loss of 8 yards to the FlaIn 21Similar
Q3 4:55
4TH & 15
OWN 21
0
51.0%
Tommy Heatherly punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Clayton Bush at the WKent 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 21PUNT4 plays · -11 yds · 0:0052% → 46%
Q3 4:14
3RD & 7
OWN 49
-13
47.9%
Steven Duncan run for a loss of 13 yards to the WKent 35 Steven Duncan fumbled, recovered by WKent Steven DuncanSimilar
Q3 4:14
4TH & 21
OWN 35
+3
53.8%
John Haggerty punt for 54 yds , Maurice Alexander returns for 3 yds to the FlaIn 38 FLORIDA INTL Penalty, personal foul (7 Yards) to the FlaIn 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 22PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0652% → 47%
Q3 2:01
4TH & 1
OWN 16
+24
47.4%
Tommy Heatherly punt for 39 yds, downed at the FLAINTL 45 FLORIDA INTL Penalty, kick catching interference (Maurquel Dillard) to the FlaIn 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 23FG8 plays · 14 yds · 3:1857% → 68%
Q4 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 30
+1
42.7%
Steven Duncan pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for 1 yd to the FlaIn 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 24DOWNS21 plays · 60 yds · 8:1739% → 26%
Q4 12:26
2ND & 5
OPP 48
-11
43.8%
Kaylan Wiggins run for 4 yds to the FlaIn 44 FLORIDA INTL Penalty, illegal block (Napoleon Maxwell) to the FlaIn 41Similar
Q4 12:26
4TH & 1
OPP 44
+20
41.5%
Anthony Jones run for 5 yds to the WKent 39 for a 1ST down WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Juwuan Jones) to the WKent 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:26
2ND & 15
OPP 29
+15
43.9%
WIGGINS,K pass incomplete to MALONEY,A, PENALTY WKU pass interference (RUFFIN, D.) 15 yards to the WKU14, 1ST DOWN FIU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-8
46.6%
Kaylan Wiggins run for a loss of 8 yards to the WKent 16 Kaylan Wiggins fumbled, forced by Dionté Ruffin, recovered by FlaIn Kaylan WigginsSimilar
Q4 4:09
4TH & GOAL
OPP 16
0
26.4%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Tony Gaiter IV, broken up by Antwon KincadeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 25END OF GAME6 plays · -2 yds · 0:0086% → 85%
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 4:09
Timeout FLORIDA INTL, clock 04:09
-18.8
TD · Q3 6:03
Napoleon Maxwell run for 15 yds for a TD, (Jose Borregales KICK)
+17.6
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-15.1