2018 · Week 4 · Sep 22, 2018 · Hard Rock Stadium
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Win probability · MIA
modelMIA aheadFIU aheadconfidence bandkey playMIA scoreFIU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:01 · Lorenzo Lingard run for 3 yds to the FlaIn 35 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 14:54: N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Lawrence Cager for 26 yds for a TD (Bubba Baxa KICK) — MIA win probability +1.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
- FG · Q2 2:30: Bubba Baxa 31 yd FG GOOD — MIA win probability +1.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:27: N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 12 yds for a TD (Bubba Baxa KICK) — MIA win probability +2.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:50: N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Lawrence Cager for 17 yds for a TD (Bubba Baxa KICK) — MIA win probability +1.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
- TD · Q4 1:35: James Morgan pass complete to CJ Worton for 5 yds for a TD (Jose Borregales KICK) — FIU win probability +2.5 pts (now 3%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
MIA made the numbers' call on 4 of 6FIU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
- Q1 12:19MIA 4th & 1 at FIU 39, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call94.0%70% to convertField goal93.7%−0.236% to makePunt93.8%−0.2average punt
- Q1 10:28FIU 4th & 20 at FIU 29, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 6.5% before the snapGo for it6.3%−0.29% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.5%average punt
- Q1 9:18MIA 4th & 4 at FIU 48, tiedClose callPunted · 93.2% before the snapGo for it93.3%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call93.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 7:35FIU 4th & 1 at FIU 41, tiedClose callPunted · 7.4% before the snapGo for it7.4%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.3%−0.1average punt
- Q1 1:46FIU 4th & 10 at FIU 25, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.4% before the snapGo for it7.3%−0.228% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.6%average punt
- Q2 13:14FIU 4th & 14 at FIU 21, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.4% before the snapGo for it6.0%−0.717% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.7%average punt
- Q2 10:51MIA 4th & 15 at MIA 10, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.5% before the snapGo for it92.8%−0.615% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call93.4%average punt
- Q2 2:30MIA 4th & 4 at FIU 13, up 14Close callKicked a field goal · 93.3% before the snapGo for it93.1%46% to convertField goalTheir call92.9%−0.285% to makePunt91.1%−2.0average punt
- Q2 1:02FIU 4th & 3 at FIU 32, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.4% before the snapGo for it5.2%−0.352% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.5%average punt
- Q3 13:26FIU 4th & 11 at FIU 24, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snapGo for it2.8%−0.325% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.1%average punt
- Q3 11:48MIA 4th & 8 at FIU 47, up 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.6% before the snapGo for it97.7%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.8%average punt
- Q3 10:21FIU 4th & 14 at FIU 22, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snapGo for it1.7%−0.617% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.4%average punt
- Q3 5:58FIU 4th & 6 at FIU 46, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.5%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%average punt
- Q3 0:00FIU 4th & 7 at FIU 42, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 10:04MIA 4th & 3 at FIU 3, up 31Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%44% to convertField goal99.8%−0.193% to makePunt99.4%−0.6average punt
- Q4 3:19FIU 4th & 10 at MIA 11, down 24Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.6%−<0.124% to convertField goalTheir call0.6%87% to makePunt0.4%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4FIU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
- Q1 2:51MIA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.4%97% to makeGo for two92.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:54MIA Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.5%97% to makeGo for two93.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:27MIA Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.3%97% to makeGo for two97.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:50MIA Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:57FIU Touchdown, down 25 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.6%97% to makeGo for two0.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 1:35FIU Touchdown, down 15 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call1.9%−0.197% to makeGo for two2.0%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartMIADrive 1DOWNS7 plays · 29 yds · 2:1696% → 96%
FIUDrive 2PUNT4 plays · -10 yds · 1:074% → 4%
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-9
95.9%
James Morgan sacked by Jonathan Garvin and Joe Jackson for a loss of 9 yards to the FlaIn 30Similar
Q1 10:28
4TH & 20
OWN 29
+36
95.7%
Stone Wilson punt for 51 yds , Jeff Thomas returns for 36 yds to the MIAMI 35 MIAMI FL Penalty, Offensive Holding (Nesta Jade Silvera) to the MiaFl 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 3PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0396% → 96%
Q1 9:18
4TH & 4
OPP 48
0
95.5%
Zach Feagles punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Maurice Alexander at the FlaIn 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 25 yds · 1:435% → 5%
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+16
95.4%
Shawndarrius Phillips run for 1 yd to the FlaIn 17 for a 1ST down MIAMI FL Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the FlaIn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
3RD & 13
OWN 29
+12
95.2%
James Morgan pass complete to Sterling Palmer for 12 yds to the FlaIn 41Similar
Q1 7:35
4TH & 1
OWN 41
0
95.0%
Stone Wilson punt for 46 yds, fair catch by DeeJay Dallas at the MiaFl 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 5TD9 plays · 87 yds · 4:4495% → 95%
FIUDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 1:015% → 5%
Q1 1:46
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
94.7%
Stone Wilson punt for 43 yds, fair catch by DeeJay Dallas at the MiaFl 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 7TD5 plays · 68 yds · 1:3695% → 96%
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+34
94.6%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 34 yds to the FlaIn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
94.8%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Mike Harley for 8 yds to the FlaIn 26Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 14
OPP 26
+26
95.8%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Lawrence Cager for 26 yds for a TD (Bubba Baxa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 8PUNT6 plays · -4 yds · 1:405% → 5%
Q2 13:56
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+2
95.3%
Christian Alexander pass complete to Napoleon Maxwell for 2 yds to the FlaIn 26Similar
Q2 13:14
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
95.3%
Stone Wilson punt for 54 yds , DeeJay Dallas returns for no gain to the MiaFl 21 MIAMI FL Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the MiaFl 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 9PUNT6 plays · -5 yds · 2:0996% → 95%
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
95.5%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Mike Harley for 3 yds to the MiaFl 18Similar
Q2 11:00
3RD & 7
OWN 18
-3
95.3%
N'Kosi Perry sacked by Fermin Silva for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaFl 15 N'Kosi Perry fumbled, forced by Fermin Silva, recovered by MiaFl Venzell Boulware , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 10:51
4TH & 15
OWN 10
0
95.1%
Zach Feagles punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Maurice Alexander at the MiaFl 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 10INT3 plays · 4 yds · 1:105% → 5%
Q2 9:41
3RD & 6
OPP 42
0
94.7%
James Morgan pass intercepted Sheldrick Redwine return for no gain to the MiaFl 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 11FG14 plays · 75 yds · 6:5395% → 96%
Q2 8:20
3RD & 4
OWN 18
+8
95.0%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Mike Harley for 8 yds to the MiaFl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
94.9%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Mike Harley for 3 yds to the MiaFl 29Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+4
95.0%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to DeeJay Dallas for 4 yds to the MiaFl 33Similar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+14
95.0%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Mike Harley for 14 yds to the FlaIn 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 12PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:084% → 4%
Q2 1:02
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
95.7%
Stone Wilson punt for 35 yds, fair catch by DeeJay Dallas at the MiaFl 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 13TD5 plays · 68 yds · 0:2696% → 98%
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+42
96.3%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Mike Harley for 42 yds to the FlaIn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+14
96.5%
Perry, N'Kosi rush for loss of 1 yard to the FLAINTL26, PENALTY FLAINTL face mask (Silva, Fermin) 14 yards to the FLAINTL12, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MIAMI.Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+12
98.3%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 12 yds for a TD (Bubba Baxa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 14END OF HALF2 plays · 3 yds · 0:003% → 3%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 15PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 1:172% → 2%
Q3 13:26
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+8
97.6%
Stone Wilson punt for 46 yds , DeeJay Dallas returns for 8 yds to the MiaFl 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 16PUNT7 plays · 15 yds · 1:2698% → 98%
FIUDrive 17PUNT4 plays · -4 yds · 1:242% → 2%
MIADrive 18TD5 plays · 58 yds · 2:0599% → 100%
Q3 7:50
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+17
99.8%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Lawrence Cager for 17 yds for a TD (Bubba Baxa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 19PUNT7 plays · 21 yds · 1:320% → 0%
MIADrive 20INT6 plays · 15 yds · 2:43100% → 100%
FIUDrive 21PUNT7 plays · 17 yds · 2:400% → 0%
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
99.8%
James Morgan pass complete to Tony Gaiter IV for a loss of 5 yards to the FlaIn 20Similar
Q3 2:19
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+2
99.8%
James Morgan pass complete to Sterling Palmer for 2 yds to the FlaIn 22Similar
Q3 1:03
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+17
99.9%
James Morgan pass complete to Darrius Scott for 17 yds to the FlaIn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 22DOWNS13 plays · 65 yds · 4:56100% → 100%
FIUDrive 23TD7 plays · 85 yds · 2:470% → 1%
Q4 9:15
2ND & 11
OWN 14
+8
99.9%
James Morgan pass complete to Tony Gaiter IV for 8 yds to the FlaIn 22Similar
Q4 8:35
3RD & 3
OWN 22
+29
99.9%
James Morgan pass complete to CJ Worton for 29 yds to the MiaFl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
99.9%
James Morgan pass complete to Sterling Palmer for 4 yds to the MiaFl 35Similar
Q4 6:57
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+35
99.2%
James Morgan pass complete to CJ Worton for 35 yds for a TD FLORIDA INTL Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MiaFl 8 (Jose Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 24FUMBLE8 plays · -14 yds · 2:31100% → 100%
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-15
99.7%
Davis, Cam'Ron rush for no gain to the MIAMI37, PENALTY MIAMI personal foul 15 yards to the MIAMI22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 25
OWN 22
0
99.7%
Cade Weldon pass complete to Robert Burns for no gain to the MiaFl 22Similar
Q4 4:14
2ND & 25
OWN 22
-7
99.7%
Cade Weldon run for a loss of 7 yards to the MiaFl 11 Cade Weldon fumbled, recovered by FlaIn Jason MercierSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 25FG4 plays · 0 yds · 0:461% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 26TD6 plays · 54 yds · 1:351% → 3%
MIADrive 27Uncategorized4 plays · 10 yds · 1:0599% → 99%
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:35
James Morgan pass complete to CJ Worton for 5 yds for a TD (Jose Borregales KICK)
-2.5
TD · Q2 0:27
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 12 yds for a TD (Bubba Baxa KICK)
+2.1
TD · Q2 14:54
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Lawrence Cager for 26 yds for a TD (Bubba Baxa KICK)
+1.2