2018 · Week 9 · Oct 27, 2018 · Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
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Win probability · WKU
modelWKU aheadFIU aheadconfidence bandkey playWKU scoreFIU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:54 · TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the WKent 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 5:03: James Morgan pass complete to Bryce Singleton for 5 yds for a TD (Jose Borregales KICK) WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined — FIU win probability +8.9 pts (now 73%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:20: Alex Rinella 23 yd FG GOOD — WKU win probability +3.3 pts (now 30%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 12:06: D'Vonte Price run for 6 yds for a TD (Jose Borregales KICK) — FIU win probability +14.8 pts (now 87%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 0:26: James Morgan pass complete to Austin Maloney for 4 yds for a TD (Jose Borregales KICK) — FIU win probability +5.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 11:54: Steven Duncan run for 1 yd for a TD FLORIDA INTL Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the FlaIn 0 (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — WKU win probability +3.9 pts (now 5%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WKU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7FIU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
- Q1 15:00WKU 4th & 11 at FIU 25, tiedClose callWent for it · 43.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call43.6%−0.125% to convertField goal43.7%66% to makePunt43.3%−0.4average punt
- Q1 11:28FIU 4th & 1 at WKU 29, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call55.6%71% to convertField goal55.4%−0.258% to makePunt55.1%−0.5average punt
- Q1 2:22WKU 4th & 23 at WKU 12, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.9% before the snapGo for it39.7%−1.96% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call41.6%average punt
- Q2 15:00FIU 4th & 1 at WKU 36, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call59.7%71% to convertField goal58.3%−1.442% to makePunt58.0%−1.7average punt
- Q2 9:45WKU 4th & 2 at FIU 4, down 7Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 41.3% before the snapGo for it41.2%50% to convertField goalTheir call39.8%−1.393% to makePunt33.5%−7.7average punt
- Q2 9:45FIU 4th & 5 at FIU 25, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.2% before the snapGo for it59.0%−0.440% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call59.4%average punt
- Q2 9:07WKU 4th & 3 at WKU 30, down 7Close callPunted · 39.4% before the snapGo for it39.8%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call39.3%−0.6average punt
- Q2 0:20WKU 4th & 6 at FIU 6, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.1% before the snapGo for it26.5%−0.631% to convertField goalTheir call27.1%91% to makePunt23.2%−3.8average punt
- Q3 12:06WKU 4th & 6 at FIU 48, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.7% before the snapGo for it19.1%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.2%average punt
- Q3 9:38FIU 4th & 2 at FIU 30, up 18Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 85.6% before the snapGo for it86.8%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call85.8%−1.0average punt
- Q3 7:33WKU 4th & 9 at WKU 22, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.5% before the snapGo for it13.9%−1.730% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.6%average punt
- Q4 5:20FIU 4th & 5 at WKU 17, up 19Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.3% before the snapGo for it97.9%−0.140% to convertField goalTheir call98.0%80% to makePunt95.9%−2.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WKU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2FIU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
- Q1 2:22FIU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call57.2%97% to makeGo for two57.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:03FIU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call69.3%97% to makeGo for two69.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:06FIU Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call81.3%97% to makeGo for two81.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:26FIU Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.6%97% to makeGo for two96.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:54WKU Touchdown, down 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersWent for two · failedKick4.5%−<0.197% to makeGo for twoTheir call4.5%45% to convert
- Q4 1:55WKU Touchdown, down 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersWent for two · convertedKick2.3%−0.197% to makeGo for twoTheir call2.4%45% to convert
- Q4 1:35FIU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call99.1%−<0.197% to makeGo for two99.2%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWKUDrive 1DOWNS12 plays · 50 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
41.5%
Davis Shanley pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 4 yds to the WKent 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+20
41.5%
Davis Shanley pass complete to Jacquez Sloan for 20 yds to the FlaIn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
41.5%
Davis Shanley pass incomplete to Jacquez Sloan, broken up by Stantley Thomas-Oliver IIISimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 24
-1
41.5%
Davis Shanley pass complete to Mik'Quan Deane for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaIn 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 2TD17 plays · 75 yds · 9:0658% → 61%
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
42.5%
James Morgan pass complete to Maurice Alexander for 3 yds to the FlaIn 28Similar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+11
42.5%
James Morgan pass complete to Tony Gaiter IV for 11 yds to the FlaIn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+5
42.2%
TEAM rush for no gain to the FIU45, fumble by TEAM recovered by FIU MORGAN, James at FIU28, PENALTY WKU offside defense (SAYNER, Evan) 5 yards to the 50 yardline, 1ST DOWN FIU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+6
42.2%
James Morgan pass complete to Austin Maloney for 6 yds to the WKent 43Similar
Q1 11:28
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+5
42.2%
James Morgan pass complete to D'Vonte Price for 5 yds to the WKent 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:28
3RD & 5
OPP 33
+4
42.2%
James Morgan pass complete to CJ Worton for 4 yds to the WKent 29Similar
Q1 11:28
4TH & 1
OPP 29
+11
42.3%
James Morgan pass complete to Maurice Alexander for 11 yds to the WKent 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
38.8%
James Morgan pass complete to Maurice Alexander for 6 yds for a TD (Jose Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 3PUNT5 plays · -13 yds · 0:0040% → 39%
Q1 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
40.0%
Davis Shanley sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the WKent 18 Davis Shanley fumbled, recovered by WKent Davis Shanley , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 2:22
2ND & 17
OWN 18
-12
39.9%
Davis Shanley sacked by Anthony Johnson for a loss of 12 yards to the WKent 6Similar
Q1 2:22
3RD & 29
OWN 6
+6
39.4%
Davis Shanley pass complete to Garland LaFrance for 6 yds to the WKent 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 4DOWNS4 plays · 9 yds · 0:1362% → 61%
Q1 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-8
38.1%
James Morgan sacked by Masai Whyte for a loss of 8 yards to the FlaIn 47Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 18
OWN 47
+17
39.3%
James Morgan pass complete to Maurice Alexander for 17 yds to the WKent 36Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 36
0
38.8%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Maurice Alexander, broken up by Ta'Corian DardenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 5MISSED FG12 plays · 60 yds · 4:2540% → 41%
Q2 14:10
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+3
41.4%
Davis Shanley pass complete to Kyle Fourtenbary for 3 yds to the FlaIn 33Similar
Q2 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 0
0
39.5%
PENALTY WKU unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, PENALTY FIU unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:27
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+4
43.0%
Davis Shanley pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for 4 yds to the FlaIn 8Similar
Q2 12:27
3RD & 6
OPP 8
+4
42.0%
Davis Shanley pass complete to Jacquez Sloan for 4 yds to the FlaIn 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 6PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0061% → 60%
Q2 9:45
4TH & 5
OWN 25
+1
40.2%
Stone Wilson punt for 53 yds , Roger Cray returns for 1 yd to the WKent 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q2 9:07
3RD & 3
OWN 30
0
39.2%
Davis Shanley pass incomplete to Kyle Fourtenbary, broken up by Sage LewisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 8TD6 plays · 39 yds · 2:5864% → 73%
Q2 5:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
26.7%
James Morgan pass complete to Bryce Singleton for 5 yds for a TD (Jose Borregales KICK) WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 9FG17 plays · 69 yds · 4:4328% → 30%
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
28.4%
Gino Appleberry Jr. run for 4 yds to the WKent 29 for a 1ST down FLORIDA INTL Penalty, Defensive holding (10 Yards) to the WKent 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
29.7%
Davis Shanley pass incomplete to Kyle Fourtenbary, broken up by Olin Cushion IIISimilar
Q2 5:03
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+19
29.1%
Davis Shanley pass complete to Jacquez Sloan for 19 yds to the FlaIn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
31.0%
Davis Shanley pass complete to Kyle Fourtenbary for 5 yds to the FlaIn 25Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
27.4%
Davis Shanley pass complete to Mik'Quan Deane for no gain to the FlaIn 6Similar
Q2 0:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
26.7%
Davis Shanley pass incomplete to Lucky Jackson, broken up by Anthony JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 10END OF HALF2 plays · 1 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 11TD6 plays · 69 yds · 2:5471% → 87%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 34
0
29.1%
James Morgan pass complete to D'Vonte Price for no gain to the FlaIn 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+8
29.7%
James Morgan pass complete to Tony Gaiter IV for 8 yds to the FlaIn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+52
28.2%
James Morgan pass complete to Austin Maloney for 52 yds to the WKent 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 12PUNT9 plays · 34 yds · 0:0017% → 18%
Q3 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
16.7%
Davis Shanley pass complete to Jacquez Sloan for 7 yds to the WKent 25Similar
Q3 12:06
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+9
17.4%
Davis Shanley pass complete to Kyle Fourtenbary for 9 yds to the FlaIn 43Similar
Q3 12:06
4TH & 1
OPP 43
-5
18.2%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, false start (Jordan Meredith) to the FlaIn 48Similar
Q3 12:06
4TH & 6
OPP 48
0
17.9%
Alex Rinella punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Maurice Alexander at the FlaIn 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 13PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0087% → 86%
WKUDrive 14PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q3 7:33
3RD & 9
OWN 22
0
14.0%
Davis Shanley pass incomplete to Jacquez Sloan, broken up by Stantley Thomas-Oliver IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 15TD15 plays · 58 yds · 6:1089% → 99%
Q3 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
10.8%
James Morgan pass complete to Maurice Alexander for 7 yds to the FlaIn 49Similar
Q3 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
10.6%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Maurice Alexander, broken up by Ben HoltSimilar
Q3 6:36
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+7
10.8%
James Morgan pass complete to Ivan Thomas for 7 yds to the WKent 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:36
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+4
10.5%
James Morgan pass complete to Maurice Alexander for 4 yds to the WKent 18Similar
Q3 6:36
3RD & 6
OPP 18
0
10.4%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Tony Gaiter IV, broken up by Antwon KincadeSimilar
Q3 1:51
4TH & 6
OPP 18
+9
7.3%
BORREGALES, J. field goal attempt from 35 GOOD, clock 01:51, PENALTY WKU roughing the kicker (PEARSON, J.) 9 yards to the WKU9, 1ST DOWN FIU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
0.9%
James Morgan pass complete to Austin Maloney for 4 yds for a TD (Jose Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 16TD12 plays · 75 yds · 3:321% → 5%
Q3 0:26
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
1.0%
Davis Shanley pass incomplete to Mik'Quan Deane, broken up by Richard DamesSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+6
1.0%
Davis Shanley pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 6 yds to the FlaIn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+19
1.1%
Davis Shanley pass complete to Jacquez Sloan for 19 yds to the FlaIn 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+9
1.1%
Davis Shanley run for 9 yds to the FlaIn 1 for a 1ST down FLORIDA INTL Penalty, personal foul (Olin Cushion III) to the FlaIn 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:54
1ST & 1
OWN 0
+1
5.0%
Steven Duncan run for 1 yd for a TD FLORIDA INTL Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the FlaIn 0 (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 17FG12 plays · 66 yds · 6:3496% → 99%
Q4 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-9
3.8%
D'Vonte Price run for 1 yd to the FlaIn 30 FLORIDA INTL Penalty, Offensive holding (Ivan Thomas) to the FlaIn 20Similar
Q4 11:54
1ST & 19
OWN 20
+9
3.8%
James Morgan pass complete to Ivan Thomas for 9 yds to the FlaIn 29Similar
Q4 11:54
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+8
3.7%
James Morgan pass complete to Austin Maloney for 8 yds to the FlaIn 37Similar
Q4 11:54
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+21
3.5%
D'Vonte Price run for 6 yds to the WKent 37 for a 1ST down WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Evan Sayner) to the WKent 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 18TD12 plays · 63 yds · 3:251% → 5%
Q4 5:20
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+19
1.1%
Steven Duncan pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for 19 yds to the FlaIn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+9
1.3%
Steven Duncan pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 9 yds to the FlaIn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
1.4%
DUNCAN, Steven pass incomplete to SLOAN, Jacquez (LUBIN, Emmanuel), PENALTY FIU pass interference (LUBIN, Emmanuel) 15 yards to the FIU18, 1ST DOWN WKU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:20
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+3
1.5%
Steven Duncan pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 3 yds to the FlaIn 15Similar
Q4 5:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
1.5%
Steven Duncan pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 8 yds to the FlaIn 1Similar
Q4 1:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
4.5%
D'Andre Ferby run for 1 yd for a TD (Steven Duncan pass to Kyle Fourtenbary for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 19TD4 plays · 61 yds · 0:2098% → 100%
WKUDrive 20INT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:06
D'Vonte Price run for 6 yds for a TD (Jose Borregales KICK)
-14.8
TD · Q2 5:03
James Morgan pass complete to Bryce Singleton for 5 yds for a TD (Jose Borregales KICK) WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined
-8.9
TD · Q3 0:26
James Morgan pass complete to Austin Maloney for 4 yds for a TD (Jose Borregales KICK)
-5.2