Eastern Michigan

Profile vs. FBS, 2021

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1550th
  Defense+0.2418th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense45.3%67th
  Defense49.7%3rd
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.1818th
  Defense+1.1786th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1251st
  Defense+0.2512th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.2454th
  Defense+0.2631st
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense51.0%73rd
  Defense55.8%4th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense31.4%50th
  Defense34.7%19th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.0040th
  Defense3.612nd
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense15.6%64th
  Defense7.7%1st
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense16.1%49th
  Defense13.3%11th

Percentiles among the 130 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2021

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Eastern Michigan allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   SFPA
2. L
   WIS
3. W
   MASS
4. W
   TXST
5. L
   NIU
6. W
   M-OH
7. L
   BALL
8. W
   BGSU
9. W
   TOL
10. L
    OHIO
11. W
    WMU
12. L
    CMU
13. L
    LIB

Bars above the line: better than expected for Eastern Michigan.

Players, 2021

1. Ben BryantQB358 plays · +0.238 pts/play · 55th of 219 QBs
   1.60WAR0.89 to 2.24
2. Jawon HamiltonRB63 plays · +0.226 pts/play · 168th of 387 RBs
   0.27WAR0.22 to 0.31
3. Samson EvansRB71 plays · +0.186 pts/play · 187th of 387 RBs
   0.25WAR0.18 to 0.32
4. Hassan BeydounWR87 plays · +0.151 pts/play · 34th of 474 WRs
   0.25WAR0.15 to 0.36
5. Darius Boone Jr.RB71 plays · +0.162 pts/play · 207th of 387 RBs
   0.22WAR0.16 to 0.28
6. Jake JulienP36 plays · +0.276 pts/play · 12th of 101 punters
   0.19WAR0.10 to 0.30
7. Dylan DrummondWR74 plays · +0.134 pts/play · 80th of 474 WRs
   0.19WAR0.11 to 0.25
8. Tanner KnueWR34 plays · +0.194 pts/play · 177th of 474 WRs
   0.12WAR0.09 to 0.16

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Eastern Michigan's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2021

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  341341115th of 130Roster talent: 341, 115th of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  128128114th of 130Recruiting: 128, 114th of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  90%90%29th of 128Returning production: 90%, 29th of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  −7.8−7.8100th of 130SP+ rating: −7.8, 100th of 130 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2021

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Eastern Michigan's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 2 clear-cut ones account for 0.03 of the 0.11 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs WMUQ4 9:00 4th & 9 at WMU 29, down 5Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−2.0 pts
2. vs M-OHQ4 0:00 4th & 2 at midfield, down 9Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.3 pts
3. vs OHIOQ4 8:20 4th & 19 at OHIO 38, down 14Punted; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−1.0 pts
4. vs WMUQ3 8:23 4th & 4 at WMU 4, down 8Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
5. vs WMUQ2 11:55 4th & 2 at EMU 30, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
6. at NIUQ4 1:12 4th & 7 at NIU 13, down 10Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts
7. at CMUQ2 11:10 4th & 1 at EMU 21, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts
8. vs WMUQ2 1:43 4th & 3 at WMU 13, down 4Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2021

53rd of 130 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Eastern Michigan's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   SFPA
2. L

   WIS
3. W

   MASS
4. W

   TXST
5. L

   NIU
6. W

   M-OH
7. L

   BALL
8. W

   BGSU
9. W

   TOL
10. L

    OHIO
11. W

    WMU
12. L

    CMU
13. L

    LIB

What moved it, 2021

Every game starts at Eastern Michigan's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−1.04
• Possession & field position+0.04
• Clock−0.03
• Timeouts−0.08
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.28

Game by game

• SFPAW 35-15 vs SFPA98% → 99%Before kickoff +48 · On the field +2: Scoreboard +6
• WISL 7-34 at WIS5% → 0%Before kickoff −45 · On the field −5: Scoreboard −8
• MASSW 42-28 at MASS98% → 98%Before kickoff +48 · On the field 0: Scoreboard +8
• TXSTW 59-21 vs TXST75% → 100%Before kickoff +25 · On the field +25: Scoreboard +27
• NIUL 20-27 at NIU49% → 3%Before kickoff −1 · On the field −46: Scoreboard −37, Timeouts −3
• M-OHW 13-12 vs M-OH42% → 2%Before kickoff −8 · On the field −40: Scoreboard −42, Timeouts −5
• BALLL 31-38 vs BALL49% → 2%Before kickoff −1 · On the field −47: Scoreboard −50, Clock −3
• BGSUW 55-24 at BGSU65% → 100%Before kickoff +15 · On the field +35: Scoreboard +40
• TOLW 52-49 at TOL27% → 86%Before kickoff −23 · On the field +59: Scoreboard +42, Clock +4
• OHIOL 26-34 vs OHIO66% → 2%Before kickoff +16 · On the field −64: Scoreboard −56, Clock −3
• WMUW 22-21 vs WMU34% → 86%Before kickoff −16 · On the field +51: Scoreboard +24, Timeouts +3
• CMUL 10-31 at CMU29% → 0%Before kickoff −21 · On the field −28: Scoreboard −30, Timeouts −1
• LIBL 20-56 at LIB25% → 0%Before kickoff −25 · On the field −25: Scoreboard −28, Possession & field position +1

Points of win probability, from Eastern Michigan's side.

Closest call

M-OH 12-13 EMU (2021) - Eastern Michigan dropped to a 2.3% win probability before pulling it out.