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TXST

Texas State 21 at Eastern Michigan 59

EMU
2021 · Week 4 · Sep 25, 2021 · Rynearson Stadium
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Win probability · EMU
modelEMU aheadTXST aheadconfidence bandkey playEMU scoreTXST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:24 · Jake Julien punt for 39 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 96Home team on offense+14.7Pregame prior+13.0Score differential+5.7Garbage-time factor+3.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.6Blowout margin−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:30: Ben Bryant pass complete to Dylan Drummond for 12 yds for a TD, (Chad Ryland KICK) — EMU win probability +4.4 pts (now 81%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:21: Dylan Drummond pass complete to Thomas Odukoya for 13 yds for a TD, (Chad Ryland KICK) — EMU win probability +9.2 pts (now 93%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:24: Brady McBride pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 29 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK) — TXST win probability +9.3 pts (now 17%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:56: Brady McBride pass complete to Javen Banks for 29 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK) — TXST win probability +11.7 pts (now 27%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 8:14: Jawon Hamilton run for 22 yds for a TD, (Chad Ryland KICK) — EMU win probability +7.7 pts (now 90%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
EMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3TXST made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 12:53TXST 4th & 1 at TXST 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.9%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:35TXST 4th & 11 at midfield, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.9%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.0%
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:27TXST 4th & 15 at TXST 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.8%−1.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 7:15EMU 4th & 15 at EMU 45, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.6%−1.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:53TXST 4th & 14 at TXST 21, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.6%−2.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:24TXST 4th & 5 at EMU 29, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.7%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    8.8%
    58% to make
    Punt
    6.3%−2.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:24EMU 4th & 9 at TXST 47, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.4%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.4%
    average punt
  8. Q3 2:43EMU 4th & 15 at TXST 18, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.0%−1.8
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.8%
    79% to make
    Punt
    86.6%−5.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 0:21TXST 4th & 28 at TXST 25, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.7%−2.7
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.4%
    average punt
  10. Q4 10:27TXST 4th & 13 at TXST 37, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%−0.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.2%
    average punt
  11. Q4 6:53TXST 4th & 9 at TXST 15, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
EMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8TXST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 8:06EMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:23EMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:36TXST Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:30EMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:21EMU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:24TXST Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 10:56TXST Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 8:14EMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 12:16EMU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 8:08EMU Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 1:09EMU Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:5325% → 25%
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
74.9%
Calvin Hill run for 2 yds to the TexSt 27Similar
Q1 14:11
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
74.8%
Brady McBride pass complete to Javen Banks for 4 yds to the TexSt 31Similar
Q1 13:31
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
74.7%
Calvin Hill run for 3 yds to the TexSt 34Similar
Q1 12:53
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
74.6%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 2TD
11 plays · 66 yds · 4:4775% → 76%
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
74.6%
PENALTY EMU False Start (Cannon,Bryson) 5 yards from EMU34 to EMU29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:37
1ST & 15
OWN 29
+3
74.5%
Darius Boone Jr. run for 3 yds to the EMich 32Similar
Q1 12:04
2ND & 12
OWN 32
+6
74.4%
Darius Boone Jr. run for 6 yds to the EMich 38Similar
Q1 11:22
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+17
74.3%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Zach Westmoreland for 17 yds to the TexSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
74.6%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:59
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+14
74.5%
Darius Boone Jr. run for 14 yds to the TexSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+16
74.6%
Darius Boone Jr. run for 16 yds to the TexSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
74.5%
Darius Boone Jr. run for 1 yd to the TexSt 14Similar
Q1 9:03
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+2
74.5%
Darius Boone Jr. run for 2 yds to the TexSt 12Similar
Q1 8:31
3RD & 7
OPP 12
+8
74.0%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Samson Evans for 8 yds to the TexSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
76.2%
Samson Evans run for 4 yds for a TD, (Chad Ryland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 2:1725% → 24%
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
75.5%
Brock Sturges run for 10 yds to the TexSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
75.4%
Brady McBride pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 8 yds to the TexSt 43Similar
Q1 7:09
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+8
75.0%
Brock Sturges run for 8 yds to the EMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
74.9%
Brock Sturges run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 6:13
2ND & 11
50
0
75.1%
Brady McBride pass complete to Brock Sturges for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:42
3RD & 11
50
0
75.4%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Drue JacksonSimilar
Q1 5:35
4TH & 11
50
0
75.8%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Dylan Drummond at the EMich 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 4TD
7 plays · 85 yds · 2:0776% → 80%
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
75.7%
Ben Bryant pass incomplete to Dylan DrummondSimilar
Q1 5:17
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+9
75.7%
Jawon Hamilton run for 9 yds to the EMich 24Similar
Q1 4:46
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+3
75.6%
Preston Hutchinson run for 3 yds to the EMich 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+18
75.9%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Zach Westmoreland for 18 yds to the EMich 45 for a 1ST down TEXAS STATE Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Javen Banks) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+16
76.6%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Dylan Drummond for 16 yds to the TexSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
80.4%
Ben Bryant run for 39 yds for a TD, (Chad Ryland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5TD
6 plays · 38 yds · 1:1622% → 27%
Q1 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
78.0%
Brady McBride pass complete to Calvin Hill for 2 yds to the EMich 36Similar
Q1 2:33
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+17
77.6%
Brady McBride pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 17 yds to the EMich 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
77.2%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Marcell BarbeeSimilar
Q1 2:01
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+14
77.4%
Brady McBride run for 14 yds to the EMich 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
73.4%
Brady McBride pass complete to Javen Banks for 5 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 6TD
9 plays · 74 yds · 2:4876% → 81%
Q1 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
75.6%
Jawon Hamilton run for no gain to the EMich 26Similar
Q1 0:46
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+18
75.4%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Dylan Drummond for 18 yds to the EMich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+18
76.5%
Jawon Hamilton run for 18 yds to the TexSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
76.8%
Ben Bryant pass incomplete to Bryson CannonSimilar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
76.6%
EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 14:34
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+11
76.2%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Hassan Beydoun for 11 yds to the TexSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+15
76.9%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Zach Westmoreland for 15 yds to the TexSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
81.3%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Dylan Drummond for 12 yds for a TD, (Chad Ryland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 2:3120% → 20%
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
79.7%
Brock Sturges run for 5 yds to the TexSt 19Similar
Q2 12:53
2ND & 5
OWN 19
0
79.7%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Ashtyn HawkinsSimilar
Q2 12:41
3RD & 5
OWN 19
+13
79.9%
Brady McBride pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 13 yds to the TexSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
79.2%
Brock Sturges run for 4 yds to the TexSt 36Similar
Q2 11:22
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+2
79.3%
Brock Sturges run for 2 yds to the TexSt 34Similar
Q2 11:07
3RD & 8
OWN 34
-7
79.7%
Brady McBride sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the TexSt 27Similar
Q2 10:27
4TH & 15
OWN 27
+3
80.5%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 41 yds , Dylan Drummond returns for 3 yds to the EMich 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 2:5982% → 81%
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
81.5%
Darius Boone Jr. run for 5 yds to the EMich 40Similar
Q2 9:44
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+4
82.2%
Darius Boone Jr. run for 4 yds to the EMich 44Similar
Q2 9:26
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+6
82.4%
Preston Hutchinson run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
50
+1
83.2%
Samson Evans run for 1 yd to the EMich 49Similar
Q2 8:35
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+2
83.1%
Jawon Hamilton run for 2 yds to the EMich 47Similar
Q2 7:42
3RD & 13
OWN 47
-2
81.8%
Ben Bryant sacked by Issiah Nixon for a loss of 2 yards to the EMich 45 Ben Bryant fumbled, recovered by EMich Alex Howie , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 7:15
4TH & 15
OWN 45
0
81.3%
Jake Julien punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Chandler Speights at the TexSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:5619% → 18%
Q2 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
81.2%
Calvin Hill run for 5 yds to the TexSt 30Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-9
80.8%
Brady McBride sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the TexSt 21Similar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
81.9%
Brady McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:53
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
82.1%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the EMich 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 10TD
7 plays · 55 yds · 2:1983% → 93%
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
83.4%
Ben Bryant run for 4 yds to the EMich 49Similar
Q2 5:05
2ND & 6
OWN 49
0
83.6%
Ben Bryant pass incomplete to Hassan BeydounSimilar
Q2 4:51
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+9
83.0%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Samson Evans for 9 yds to the TexSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
84.1%
Ben Bryant pass incomplete to Latrell FordhamSimilar
Q2 4:07
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+27
84.1%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Bryson Cannon for 12 yds to the TexSt 30 for a 1ST down TEXAS STATE Penalty, Personal Foul (Issiah Nixon) to the TexSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
84.3%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Latrell Fordham for 2 yds to the TexSt 13Similar
Q2 3:21
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+13
93.4%
Dylan Drummond pass complete to Thomas Odukoya for 13 yds for a TD, (Chad Ryland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 11TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 1:268% → 17%
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
91.9%
Brady McBride pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 6 yds to the TexSt 31Similar
Q2 2:39
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
91.4%
Brock Sturges run for 6 yds to the TexSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+14
91.6%
Brady McBride pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 14 yds to the EMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
91.1%
Brock Sturges run for 15 yds to the EMich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
90.5%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Javen BanksSimilar
Q2 1:39
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+2
90.3%
Brock Sturges run for 2 yds to the EMich 36Similar
Q2 1:32
3RD & 12
OPP 36
+7
91.6%
Brady McBride pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 7 yds to the EMich 29Similar
Q2 1:24
4TH & 5
OPP 29
+29
82.8%
Brady McBride pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 29 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 12PUNT
11 plays · 28 yds · 0:5289% → 89%
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
88.9%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Dylan Drummond for no gain to the EMich 25Similar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
89.0%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Latrell Fordham for 15 yds to the EMich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
89.5%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
89.4%
Ben Bryant pass incomplete to Latrell FordhamSimilar
Q2 0:54
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+12
89.0%
Ben Bryant run for 12 yds to the TexSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
89.8%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Hassan Beydoun for 1 yd to the TexSt 47Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 9
OPP 47
0
89.7%
Ben Bryant pass incomplete to Dylan SummersSimilar
Q2 0:33
3RD & 9
OPP 47
0
89.3%
Ben Bryant pass incomplete to Dylan SummersSimilar
Q2 0:24
4TH & 9
OPP 47
0
88.7%
Jake Julien punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 13Uncategorized
1 play · 8 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+8
86.3%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 8 yds to the TexSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 14PUNT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q3 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
85.7%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 10 yds · 0:3987% → 87%
Q3 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
86.6%
Jawon Hamilton run for 9 yds to the EMich 29Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+1
86.8%
Jawon Hamilton run for 1 yd to the EMich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
86.7%
Ben Bryant pass incomplete to Dylan DrummondSimilar
Q3 13:38
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
86.7%
Jake Julien punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 16TD
7 plays · 77 yds · 2:2314% → 24%
Q3 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+16
86.0%
Calvin Hill run for 16 yds to the TexSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
85.3%
Calvin Hill run for 2 yds to the TexSt 37Similar
Q3 12:33
2ND & 12
OWN 37
+1
86.3%
Brady McBride run for 1 yd to the TexSt 38Similar
Q3 11:39
3RD & 11
OWN 38
+27
86.7%
Brady McBride pass complete to Drue Jackson for 27 yds to the EMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
84.4%
Brady McBride pass complete to Drue Jackson for 6 yds to the EMich 29Similar
Q3 10:56
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+29
72.7%
Brady McBride pass complete to Javen Banks for 29 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
76.4%
PENALTY TXS UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Barbee,Marcell) 15 yards from TXS35 to TXS20. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 17TD
8 plays · 57 yds · 2:1580% → 89%
Q3 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
79.8%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Hassan Beydoun for 11 yds to the TexSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
80.4%
Jawon Hamilton run for no gain to the TexSt 46Similar
Q3 9:43
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+2
81.4%
Ben Bryant run for 2 yds to the TexSt 48Similar
Q3 9:12
3RD & 12
OPP 48
+17
79.8%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Latrell Fordham for 17 yds to the TexSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
82.0%
Ben Bryant run for 9 yds to the TexSt 22Similar
Q3 8:14
2ND & 1
OPP 22
+22
89.7%
Jawon Hamilton run for 22 yds for a TD, (Chad Ryland KICK)Similar
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
89.2%
PENALTY TXS Leaping 15 yards from EMU35 to EMU50. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 18FUMBLE
9 plays · 40 yds · 2:4312% → 14%
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
87.6%
Brock Sturges run for 5 yds to the TexSt 25Similar
Q3 7:26
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+20
87.1%
Brady McBride pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 20 yds to the TexSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
86.7%
Brady McBride run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 6:27
2ND & 5
50
+7
86.3%
Brock Sturges run for 7 yds to the EMich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
86.3%
Brock Sturges run for 1 yd to the EMich 42Similar
Q3 5:31
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+11
86.5%
Brock Sturges run for 11 yds to the EMich 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-15
85.7%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, Daniel,Robert at EMU40 Daniel,Robert return Personal Foul (Julian Ortega-Jones) to the TexSt 30Similar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-15
85.7%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, Daniel,Robert at EMU40 Daniel,Robert return Personal Foul (Julian Ortega-Jones) to the TexSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 19FG
5 plays · 12 yds · 2:2191% → 94%
Q3 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+17
91.2%
Darius Boone Jr. run for 17 yds to the TexSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
91.5%
Darius Boone Jr. run for 2 yds to the TexSt 11Similar
Q3 4:02
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+1
91.8%
Jawon Hamilton run for 1 yd to the TexSt 10Similar
Q3 3:22
3RD & 7
OPP 10
-8
91.7%
Ben Bryant sacked by Samuel Obiang for a loss of 8 yards to the TexSt 18Similar
Q3 2:43
4TH & 15
OPP 18
+36
93.9%
Chad Ryland 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 0 yds · 2:066% → 5%
Q3 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
93.8%
Calvin Hill run for 6 yds to the TexSt 31Similar
Q3 2:04
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+12
93.5%
Calvin Hill run for 12 yds to the TexSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
93.7%
Calvin Hill run for no gain to the TexSt 43Similar
Q3 1:15
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
93.8%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Drue JacksonSimilar
Q3 1:14
3RD & 10
OWN 43
-5
93.9%
PENALTY TXS False Start (Moorer,Donnovan) 5 yards from TXS43 to TXS38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:06
3RD & 15
OWN 38
-13
94.5%
Brady McBride sacked by Turan Rush for a loss of 13 yards to the TexSt 25Similar
Q3 0:21
4TH & 28
OWN 25
0
94.8%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Dylan Drummond at the EMich 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 21TD
8 plays · 66 yds · 2:4895% → 99%
Q3 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
95.2%
Darius Boone Jr. run for 9 yds to the EMich 43Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+2
95.5%
Darius Boone Jr. run for 2 yds to the EMich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
95.9%
Ben Bryant pass incomplete to Zach WestmorelandSimilar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+5
96.0%
Darius Boone Jr. run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:20
3RD & 5
50
+11
96.3%
Samson Evans run for 11 yds to the TexSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
96.5%
(13:09) Bryant,Ben pass incomplete to Drummond,Dylan PENALTY TXS Pass Interference (Lefeged Jr.,Troy) 15 yards from TXS39 to TXS24, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
96.5%
Jawon Hamilton run for no gain to the TexSt 24Similar
Q4 12:16
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+24
98.8%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Latrell Fordham for 24 yds for a TD, (Chad Ryland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 22DOWNS
7 plays · 3 yds · 1:291% → 1%
Q4 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
98.7%
Calvin Hill run for 5 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+11
98.7%
Calvin Hill run for 11 yds to the TexSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
98.7%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Marcell BarbeeSimilar
Q4 10:53
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+3
98.8%
Ashtyn Hawkins run for 3 yds to the TexSt 37Similar
Q4 10:35
3RD & 13
OWN 37
0
98.9%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Javen BanksSimilar
Q4 10:27
4TH & 13
OWN 37
-10
98.9%
Brady McBride sacked for a loss of 10 yards to the TexSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 23TD
6 plays · 27 yds · 2:0399% → 100%
Q4 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+13
98.9%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Dylan Drummond for 13 yds to the TexSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
98.9%
Ben Bryant pass incomplete to Dylan DrummondSimilar
Q4 9:23
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+5
99.0%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Bryson Cannon for 5 yds to the TexSt 9Similar
Q4 8:31
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+5
99.1%
Samson Evans run for 5 yds to the TexSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.9%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Hassan Beydoun for 4 yds for a TD, (Chad Ryland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:380% → 0%
Q4 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
99.9%
Brock Sturges run for 1 yd to the TexSt 15Similar
Q4 7:27
2ND & 9
OWN 15
0
99.9%
Brady McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:10
3RD & 9
OWN 15
0
99.9%
Brady McBride pass complete to Javen Banks for no gain to the TexSt 15Similar
Q4 6:53
4TH & 9
OWN 15
0
99.9%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 37 yds , Hassan Beydoun returns for no gain to the EMich 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 25TD
11 plays · 54 yds · 5:26100% → 100%
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
99.9%
Samson Evans run for no gain to the EMich 46Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+5
99.9%
Samson Evans run for 5 yds to the TexSt 49Similar
Q4 5:25
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+15
99.9%
(05:26) Smith,Austin pass incomplete PENALTY TXS Pass Interference (Mask,DeJordan) 15 yards from TXS49 to TXS34, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
99.9%
Samson Evans run for 2 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
Q4 4:19
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+16
99.9%
Austin Smith pass complete to I'Shawn Stewart for 16 yds to the TexSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
99.9%
Samson Evans run for 6 yds to the TexSt 10Similar
Q4 3:02
2ND & 4
OPP 10
+2
99.9%
Samson Evans run for 2 yds to the TexSt 8Similar
Q4 2:21
3RD & 2
OPP 8
+4
100.0%
Aaron Jackson run for 4 yds to the TexSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
100.0%
Aaron Jackson run for 2 yds to the TexSt 2Similar
Q4 1:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
100.0%
Samson Evans run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chad Ryland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 26END OF GAME
4 plays · 10 yds · 0:480% → 0%
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
100.0%
Caleb Twyford run for 2 yds to the TexSt 37Similar
Q4 0:06
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+3
100.0%
Caleb Twyford run for 3 yds to the TexSt 40Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+5
100.0%
Ty Evans run for 5 yds to the TexSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:56
Brady McBride pass complete to Javen Banks for 29 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK)
-11.7
TD · Q2 1:24
Brady McBride pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 29 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK)
-9.3
TD · Q2 3:21
Dylan Drummond pass complete to Thomas Odukoya for 13 yds for a TD, (Chad Ryland KICK)
+9.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com