2018 · Week 2 · Sep 8, 2018 · Ross-Ade Stadium
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Win probability · PUR
modelPUR aheadEMU aheadconfidence bandkey playPUR scoreEMU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Chad Ryland 24 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 3:40: Tyler Wiegers pass complete to Mathew Sexton for 75 yds for a TD (Chad Ryland KICK) — EMU win probability +2.0 pts (now 16%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:59: Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Markell Jones for 7 yds for a TD (Spencer Evans PAT MISSED) — PUR win probability +4.7 pts (now 86%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
- TD · Q4 7:56: Breck Turner run for 9 yds for a TD Timeout EASTRN MICHIGAN, clock 07:56 (Chad Ryland KICK) — EMU win probability +34.9 pts (now 72%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 6:41: D.J. Knox run for 45 yds for a TD PURDUE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (D.J. Knox) to the EMich 18 (Spencer Evans KICK) — PUR win probability +30.6 pts (now 77%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
- FG · Q4 0:00: Chad Ryland 24 yd FG GOOD — EMU win probability +67.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
PUR made the numbers' call on 7 of 8EMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
- Q1 15:00EMU 4th & 6 at EMU 45, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 15.2% before the snapGo for it15.2%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.2%average punt
- Q1 12:00PUR 4th & 1 at PUR 29, tiedClose callPunted · 83.9% before the snapGo for it84.0%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call83.9%−0.1average punt
- Q1 10:35EMU 4th & 1 at EMU 42, tiedClose callPunted · 16.5% before the snapGo for it16.6%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.5%−0.1average punt
- Q1 3:53PUR 4th & 6 at EMU 12, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.6% before the snapGo for it81.5%−0.136% to convertField goalTheir call81.5%86% to makePunt80.4%−1.1average punt
- Q1 0:26PUR 4th & 8 at EMU 16, down 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.8% before the snapGo for it78.3%−0.332% to convertField goalTheir call78.6%81% to makePunt76.1%−2.4average punt
- Q2 15:00EMU 4th & 26 at EMU 21, up 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.5% before the snapGo for it19.7%−1.16% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.8%average punt
- Q2 8:57EMU 4th & 5 at EMU 42, up 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.1% before the snapGo for it24.0%−0.341% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.3%average punt
- Q3 15:00PUR 4th & 6 at PUR 29, up 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.1% before the snapGo for it75.3%−0.739% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call75.9%average punt
- Q3 13:44EMU 4th & 15 at PUR 47, down 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.8% before the snapGo for it22.8%−1.917% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.7%average punt
- Q3 9:12PUR 4th & 10 at PUR 34, up 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.7% before the snapGo for it71.9%−2.229% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call74.1%average punt
- Q3 7:32EMU 4th & 7 at midfield, down 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.1% before the snapGo for it27.6%−0.237% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call27.7%average punt
- Q3 4:46PUR 4th & 1 at EMU 44, up 2Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call74.0%70% to convertField goal68.8%−5.227% to makePunt70.5%−3.5average punt
- Q4 15:00EMU 4th & 1 at PUR 45, down 2Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call32.6%70% to convertField goal26.0%−6.625% to makePunt28.3%−4.3average punt
- Q4 12:33EMU 4th & 6 at PUR 39, down 2Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 32.2% before the snapGo for it32.5%40% to convertField goal31.2%−1.336% to makePuntTheir call30.8%−1.8average punt
- Q4 11:36PUR 4th & 7 at PUR 14, up 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.6% before the snapGo for it66.2%−3.635% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call69.8%average punt
- Q4 4:51PUR 4th & 11 at EMU 21, up 2Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.8% before the snapGo for it66.9%−5.025% to convertField goalTheir call71.9%74% to makePunt49.9%−22.0average punt
- Q4 1:42EMU 4th & 15 at EMU 47, down 2Close callWent for it · 28.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call19.0%−0.317% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt19.2%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PUR made the numbers' call on 2 of 2EMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 3:40EMU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call20.1%97% to makeGo for two20.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:59PUR Touchdown, up 5 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call79.9%97% to makeGo for two79.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 7:56EMU Touchdown, up 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call60.8%97% to makeGo for two59.5%−1.345% to convert
- Q4 6:41PUR Touchdown, up 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call67.5%97% to makeGo for two66.7%−0.845% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartEMUDrive 1PUNT9 plays · 20 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-5
88.6%
Tyler Wiegers sacked by Kai Higgins for a loss of 5 yards to the EMich 15Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+21
88.6%
Tyler Wiegers pass complete to Arthur Jackson III for 21 yds to the EMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-3
88.6%
Ian Eriksen run for a loss of 3 yards to the EMich 38 EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 38
+7
88.6%
Tyler Wiegers pass complete to Blake Banham for 7 yds to the EMich 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q1 12:00
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+5
87.7%
David Blough rush for 9 yards to the PUR29 (RACHWAL, Kyle), PENALTY EMU offside (CROSBY, Maxx) 5 yards to the PUR25, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q1 10:35
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+6
87.2%
Tyler Wiegers pass complete to Breck Turner for 6 yds to the EMich 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 4FG9 plays · 72 yds · 4:2987% → 86%
EMUDrive 5TD2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
83.9%
Tyler Wiegers pass complete to Mathew Sexton for 75 yds for a TD (Chad Ryland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 6FG10 plays · 70 yds · 3:1484% → 84%
EMUDrive 7PUNT8 plays · -4 yds · 0:2617% → 17%
Q1 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
83.1%
Tyler Wiegers pass complete to Gunnar Oakes for 12 yds to the EMich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 42
-16
82.3%
EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, personal foul (-16 Yards) to the EMich 26Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 21
OWN 26
0
83.1%
Mike Glass III pass incomplete to Blake Banham, broken up by Kai HigginsSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 26
OWN 21
0
83.4%
Jake Julien punt for 44 yds , Jackson Anthrop returns for no gain to the Prdue 35 Jackson Anthrop fumbled, recovered by Prdue Jackson AnthropSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 8FUMBLE13 plays · 54 yds · 3:5883% → 82%
Q2 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
82.7%
David Blough pass complete to Cole Herdman for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
83.7%
D.J. Knox rush for 3 yards to the EMU34 (SCOTT, M.), PENALTY EMU offside (HARRIS, J.) 5 yards to the EMU32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:19
2ND & 4
OPP 8
+1
84.2%
David Blough pass complete to Cole Herdman for 1 yd to the EMich 7Similar
Q2 9:21
3RD & 3
OPP 7
-12
82.6%
D.J. Knox run for 3 yds to the EMich 4 PURDUE Penalty, GL (-15 Yards) to the EMich 19Similar
Q2 9:21
3RD & 15
OPP 19
+9
81.7%
David Blough pass complete to Rondale Moore for 9 yds Rondale Moore fumbled, forced by Ikie Calderon, recovered by EMich Hunter AndrewsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 9PUNT9 plays · 31 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q2 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
80.2%
Tyler Wiegers pass complete to Gunnar Oakes for 3 yds to the EMich 14Similar
Q2 8:57
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+15
80.1%
Tyler Wiegers pass complete to Gunnar Oakes for 15 yds to the EMich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:57
3RD & 5
OWN 42
-15
79.2%
WIEGERS, Tyler pass complete to JACKSON, Arthur for 21 yards to the PUR37 (Thieneman, J.), PENALTY EMU pass interference (BANHAM, Blake) 15 yards to the EMU27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:57
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
80.2%
Jake Julien punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Prdue 13 , Rondale Moore returns for no gain to the Prdue 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 10TD10 plays · 87 yds · 3:5078% → 86%
Q2 4:49
3RD & 3
OWN 20
+5
77.7%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Rondale Moore for 5 yds to the Prdue 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
78.4%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Cole Herdman for 17 yds to the Prdue 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+22
79.8%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Terry Wright for 22 yds to the EMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+19
80.4%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Brycen Hopkins for 19 yds to the EMich 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
85.5%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Markell Jones for 7 yds for a TD (Spencer Evans PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 11FG10 plays · 65 yds · 0:5615% → 22%
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+16
83.7%
Tyler Wiegers pass complete to Bryce Kemp for 16 yds to the Prdue 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 15
OPP 48
+14
83.7%
Tyler Wiegers pass complete to Arthur Jackson III for 14 yds to the Prdue 34Similar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+29
80.9%
Tyler Wiegers pass complete to Blake Banham for 29 yds to the Prdue 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
81.2%
EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, delay of game (Tyler Wiegers) to the Prdue 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 13PUNT6 plays · 4 yds · 0:0080% → 78%
Q3 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
77.9%
Joe Schopper punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Blake Banham at the EMich 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 14PUNT8 plays · 24 yds · 0:0022% → 21%
Q3 13:44
3RD & 7
OWN 32
+26
78.6%
Tyler Wiegers pass complete to Blake Banham for 26 yds to the Prdue 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-5
75.8%
Tyler Wiegers sacked by Lorenzo Neal for a loss of 5 yards to the Prdue 47Similar
Q3 13:44
3RD & 13
OPP 45
-1
77.7%
Tyler Wiegers sacked by Markus Bailey for a loss of 1 yard to the Prdue 42 Tyler Wiegers fumbled, recovered by EMich Jeremy Hickey , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 29 yds · 0:0076% → 75%
Q3 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
77.1%
Markell Jones run for 2 yds to the Prdue 39 Markell Jones fumbled, forced by Maxx Crosby, recovered by Prdue Markell JonesSimilar
Q3 9:12
3RD & 5
OWN 39
-5
77.4%
Elijah Sindelar sacked by Maxx Crosby for a loss of 5 yards to the Prdue 34Similar
Q3 9:12
4TH & 10
OWN 34
0
75.2%
Joe Schopper punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Blake Banham at the EMich 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 16PUNT8 plays · 31 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q3 7:32
3RD & 12
OWN 17
+15
76.7%
GLASS, Mike pass incomplete, PENALTY PUR pass interference (Blackmon) 15 yards to the EMU32, 1ST DOWN EMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
74.5%
Mike Glass III pass complete to Blake Banham for 15 yds to the EMich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:32
3RD & 6
OPP 49
-1
72.5%
Mike Glass III sacked by Cornel Jones for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 17DOWNS10 plays · 52 yds · 0:0074% → 76%
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
74.7%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to D.J. Knox for 4 yds to the Prdue 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 18DOWNS4 plays · 9 yds · 0:3132% → 31%
PURDrive 19FUMBLE2 plays · 18 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q4 14:28
2ND & 5
50
+13
76.2%
Markell Jones run for 13 yds to the EMich 37 Markell Jones fumbled, forced by Justin Moody, recovered by EMich Ikie Calderon , return to the 50 yard line PURDUE Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 20PUNT7 plays · 24 yds · 1:1431% → 30%
Q4 13:47
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+17
67.6%
Tyler Wiegers pass complete to Arthur Jackson III for 17 yds to the Prdue 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:33
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+4
68.5%
Tyler Wiegers pass complete to Blake Banham for 4 yds to the Prdue 39Similar
Q4 12:33
4TH & 6
OPP 39
0
69.7%
Jake Julien punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Rondale Moore at the Prdue 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 21PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0074% → 72%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 22TD4 plays · 44 yds · 1:5335% → 72%
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-3
64.8%
Tyler Wiegers pass complete to Mathew Sexton for a loss of 3 yards to the Prdue 47Similar
Q4 9:49
2ND & 13
OPP 47
+18
66.8%
Tyler Wiegers pass complete to Blake Banham for 18 yds to the Prdue 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+20
63.1%
Mike Glass III pass complete to Brian Dooley for 20 yds to the Prdue 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
28.2%
Breck Turner run for 9 yds for a TD Timeout EASTRN MICHIGAN, clock 07:56 (Chad Ryland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 23TD5 plays · 64 yds · 1:1543% → 77%
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
43.1%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Brycen Hopkins for 7 yds to the Prdue 43Similar
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
46.6%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Brycen Hopkins for 6 yds to the EMich 45Similar
Q4 6:41
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+45
77.2%
D.J. Knox run for 45 yds for a TD PURDUE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (D.J. Knox) to the EMich 18 (Spencer Evans KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 24INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q4 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.8%
Tyler Wiegers pass intercepted Kai Higgins return for no gain to the EMich 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 25MISSED FG4 plays · -1 yds · 1:4479% → 77%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 26FG21 plays · 72 yds · 4:5130% → 95%
Q4 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
70.5%
Tyler Wiegers pass complete to Mathew Sexton for 9 yds to the EMich 30Similar
Q4 4:51
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+11
67.1%
Tyler Wiegers pass complete to Gunnar Oakes for 11 yds to the EMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:51
2ND & 8
OWN 43
0
67.1%
Tyler Wiegers pass incomplete to Line Latu, broken up by Jacob ThienemanSimilar
Q4 4:51
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+9
69.1%
Tyler Wiegers sacked by Cornel Jones for a loss of 6 yards to the Prdue 37 for a 1ST down PURDUE Penalty, personal foul (Cornel Jones) to the Prdue 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:51
3RD & 7
OPP 45
-8
64.8%
Tyler Wiegers sacked by Cornel Jones and Markus Bailey for a loss of 8 yards to the EMich 47Similar
Q4 1:42
4TH & 15
OWN 47
+23
80.8%
Tyler Wiegers pass complete to Arthur Jackson III for 23 yds to the Prdue 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
69.5%
EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, false start (Steve Nielsen) to the Prdue 35Similar
Q4 1:42
1ST & 15
OPP 35
+15
72.2%
WIEGERS, Tyler pass incomplete, PENALTY PUR pass interference (Dedrick Mackey) 15 yards to the PUR20, 1ST DOWN EMU, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:00
Chad Ryland 24 yd FG GOOD
-67
TD · Q4 7:56
Breck Turner run for 9 yds for a TD Timeout EASTRN MICHIGAN, clock 07:56 (Chad Ryland KICK)
-34.9
TD · Q4 6:41
D.J. Knox run for 45 yds for a TD PURDUE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (D.J. Knox) to the EMich 18 (Spencer Evans KICK)
+30.6