Eastern Michigan

Profile vs. FBS, 2014

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense0.006th
  Defense+0.331st
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense35.4%5th
  Defense47.5%12th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.1844th
  Defense+1.2722nd
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.0118th
  Defense+0.249th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense−0.013rd
  Defense+0.451st
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense40.3%6th
  Defense50.9%15th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense25.8%4th
  Defense40.4%4th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.5920th
  Defense2.9837th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense25.3%8th
  Defense18.0%27th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense2.0%52nd
  Defense1.2%2nd

Percentiles among the 128 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2014

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Eastern Michigan allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   MORG
2. L
   FLA
3. L
   ODU
4. L
   MSU
5. L
   AKR
6. W
   BUF
7. L
   MASS
8. L
   NIU
9. L
   CMU
10. L
    WMU
11. L
    BALL
12. L
    TOL

Bars above the line: better than expected for Eastern Michigan.

Players, 2014

1. Reginald BellQB161 plays · +0.202 pts/play · 135th of 199 QBs
   0.61WAR0.24 to 0.92
2. Rob BoldenQB63 plays · +0.156 pts/play · 165th of 199 QBs
   0.18WAR0.05 to 0.33
3. Ryan BrumfieldRB73 plays · +0.108 pts/play · 161st of 350 RBs
   0.15WAR0.10 to 0.20
4. Brogan RobackQB23 plays · +0.168 pts/play · 186th of 199 QBs
   0.07WAR0.03 to 0.12
5. Dylan MulderPK6 plays · +0.460 pts/play · 98th of 114 kickers
   0.05WAR0.03 to 0.07
6. Darius JacksonRB26 plays · +0.095 pts/play · 260th of 350 RBs
   0.05WAR0.03 to 0.07
7. Dustin CreelWR16 plays · +0.113 pts/play · 383rd of 469 WRs
   0.03WAR0.02 to 0.05
8. Kris StrangeWR15 plays · +0.099 pts/play · 394th of 469 WRs
   0.03WAR0.01 to 0.05

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Eastern Michigan's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2014

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Eastern Michigan's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 1 clear-cut ones account for 0.02 of the 0.07 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs NIUQ2 0:04 4th & 1 at NIU 4, down 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−2.5 pts
2. at ODUQ3 9:08 4th & 3 at EMU 47, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts
3. vs BUFQ2 9:16 4th & 4 at BUF 41, down 10Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts
4. at ODUQ1 3:59 4th & 1 at ODU 49, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.4 pts
5. at MASSQ3 15:00 4th & 2 at EMU 43, down 16Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.3 pts
6. at MASSQ4 11:54 4th & 9 at MASS 24, down 22Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.3 pts
7. vs BUFQ1 2:45 4th & 2 at EMU 36, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.2 pts
8. vs CMUQ1 5:14 4th & 2 at EMU 36, down 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.2 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2014

69th of 128 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Eastern Michigan's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7. Based on 11 of 12 games; one has no play-by-play to score.

1. W

   MORG
2. L

   FLA
3. L

   ODU
4. L

   MSU
5. L

   AKR
6. W

   BUF
7. L

   MASS
8. L

   NIU
9. L

   CMU
10. L

    WMU
11. L

    BALL
12. L

    TOL

What moved it, 2014

Every game starts at Eastern Michigan's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−0.90
• Possession & field position+0.01
• Clock−0.02
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.75

Game by game

• FLAL 0-65 at FLA1% → 0%Before kickoff −49 · On the field −1: Scoreboard −2
• ODUL 3-17 at ODU18% → 0%Before kickoff −32 · On the field −17: Scoreboard −21, Timeouts −1
• MSUL 14-73 at MSU0% → 0%Before kickoff −50 · On the field 0: Scoreboard −1
• AKRL 6-31 at AKR8% → 0%Before kickoff −42 · On the field −8: Scoreboard −11, Clock −1
• BUFW 37-27 vs BUF17% → 97%Before kickoff −33 · On the field +80: Scoreboard +45, Timeouts +2
• MASSL 14-36 at MASS21% → 0%Before kickoff −29 · On the field −21: Scoreboard −24, Timeouts −1
• NIUL 17-28 vs NIU9% → 1%Before kickoff −41 · On the field −8: Scoreboard −17, Clock −1
• CMUL 7-38 vs CMU12% → 0%Before kickoff −38 · On the field −12: Scoreboard −17
• WMUL 7-51 at WMU6% → 0%Before kickoff −44 · On the field −6: Scoreboard −8
• BALLL 30-45 at BALL16% → 2%Before kickoff −34 · On the field −14: Scoreboard −20, Timeouts −1
• TOLL 16-52 vs TOL9% → 0%Before kickoff −41 · On the field −9: Scoreboard −14

Points of win probability, from Eastern Michigan's side.

Closest call

M-OH 12-13 EMU (2021) - Eastern Michigan dropped to a 2.3% win probability before pulling it out.