2014 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2014 · S.B. Ballard Stadium
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Win probability · ODU
modelODU aheadEMU aheadconfidence bandkey playODU scoreEMU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:08 · Austin Barnes punt for 52 yds, downed at the ODU 1
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- KEY PLAY · Q3 2:55: Gerard Johnson run for 8 yds to the EMich 29 — ODU win probability +3.4 pts (now 85%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
- FG · Q3 0:11: Ricky Segers 26 yd FG GOOD — ODU win probability +3.0 pts (now 87%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 9:13: Gerard Johnson run for 2 yds to the ODU 27 — ODU win probability +3.9 pts (now 88%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
- PUNT · Q4 7:28: Austin Barnes punt for 42 yds , Antonio Vaughan returns for 46 yds for a TD, (Ricky Segers KICK) — ODU win probability +8.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 7:28: Timeout EASTRN MICHIGAN, clock 07:28 — ODU win probability +5.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ODU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10EMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 11
- Q1 10:47ODU 4th & 2 at ODU 40, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call77.5%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt77.4%−0.1average punt
- Q1 7:16EMU 4th & 2 at EMU 42, down 7Close callPunted · 21.5% before the snapGo for it21.6%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call21.5%−0.1average punt
- Q1 6:27ODU 4th & 2 at ODU 37, up 7Close callPunted · 78.4% before the snapGo for it78.5%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call78.4%−0.1average punt
- Q1 3:59EMU 4th & 1 at ODU 49, down 7Close callPunted · 21.9% before the snapGo for it21.9%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call21.6%−0.4average punt
- Q2 15:00ODU 4th & 22 at ODU 21, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.6% before the snapGo for it76.7%−1.57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call78.2%average punt
- Q2 12:44EMU 4th & 14 at ODU 37, down 7Close callPunted · 21.5% before the snapGo for it21.2%−0.419% to convertField goal21.6%40% to makePuntTheir call21.5%−0.1average punt
- Q2 11:02ODU 4th & 22 at EMU 47, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.7% before the snapGo for it76.7%−1.48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call78.1%average punt
- Q2 8:18EMU 4th & 17 at EMU 8, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.5% before the snapGo for it18.8%−1.612% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.4%average punt
- Q2 1:19ODU 4th & 1 at EMU 1, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call79.1%59% to convertField goal77.3%−1.894% to makePunt72.9%−6.2average punt
- Q3 15:00EMU 4th & 18 at ODU 46, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.7% before the snapGo for it20.0%−2.013% to convertField goal20.4%−1.623% to makePuntTheir call22.0%average punt
- Q3 10:45ODU 4th & 9 at ODU 13, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.6% before the snapGo for it76.9%−1.530% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call78.5%average punt
- Q3 9:08EMU 4th & 3 at EMU 47, down 7Close callPunted · 21.5% before the snapGo for it22.5%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call21.7%−0.7average punt
- Q3 7:11ODU 4th & 8 at ODU 47, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.3% before the snapGo for it81.3%−0.734% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call81.9%average punt
- Q3 5:21EMU 4th & 16 at EMU 16, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.4% before the snapGo for it17.4%−3.114% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.5%average punt
- Q3 0:11ODU 4th & 9 at EMU 9, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.8% before the snapGo for it83.7%−1.525% to convertField goalTheir call85.2%89% to makePunt76.5%−8.7average punt
- Q4 15:00EMU 4th & 1 at ODU 44, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call14.6%70% to convertField goal10.2%−4.427% to makePunt11.6%−3.0average punt
- Q4 9:13EMU 4th & 9 at ODU 26, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.9% before the snapGo for it10.8%−0.431% to convertField goalTheir call11.2%64% to makePunt7.3%−4.0average punt
- Q4 9:13ODU 4th & 8 at ODU 27, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.1% before the snapGo for it84.8%−2.033% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call86.8%average punt
- Q4 7:28EMU 4th & 13 at EMU 4, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.1% before the snapGo for it8.3%−2.517% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.8%average punt
- Q4 7:22EMU 4th & 6 at EMU 36, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snapGo for it0.9%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.0%average punt
- Q4 2:45ODU 4th & 5 at EMU 30, up 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.3%41% to convertField goal99.3%−<0.156% to makePunt99.2%−0.2average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ODU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 7:23ODU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call78.2%97% to makeGo for two78.2%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartODUDrive 1INT4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
EMUDrive 2PUNT10 plays · 19 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 3TD7 plays · 80 yds · 3:2481% → 82%
Q1 10:47
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+7
81.3%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to Antonio Vaughan for 7 yds to the ODU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:47
2ND & 11
OWN 31
-3
81.3%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to Gerard Johnson for a loss of 3 yards to the ODU 28Similar
Q1 10:47
4TH & 2
OWN 40
+5
81.3%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to David Washington for 5 yds to the ODU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q1 7:16
4TH & 2
OWN 42
0
82.0%
Owen Dubiel punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Antonio Vaughan at the ODU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 5PUNT7 plays · 26 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
EMUDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 26 yds · 0:0018% → 19%
Q1 3:59
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+3
81.2%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Bronson Hill for 3 yds to the ODU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 7PUNT9 plays · 19 yds · 1:3282% → 81%
Q1 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+6
81.5%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to David Washington for 6 yds to the ODU 8Similar
Q1 1:32
2ND & 11
OWN 14
+19
81.5%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to Melvin Vaughn for 19 yds to the ODU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-15
81.6%
HEINICKE, T. pass complete to JOHNSON, Gerard for 2 yards to the ODU35 (COTTON, Pudge), PENALTY ODU personal foul (BOTTOMS, Kyle) 15 yards to the ODU18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 25
OWN 18
-1
81.4%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to Marques Little for a loss of 1 yard to the ODU 17Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 22
OWN 21
0
80.7%
Jarrett Cervi punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Tyler Allen at the EMich 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 27 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
ODUDrive 9PUNT10 plays · 52 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q2 11:02
3RD & 10
OWN 1
+9
80.5%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to Ray Lawry for 9 yds to the ODU 10Similar
Q2 11:02
4TH & 1
OWN 10
-5
80.2%
HEINICKE, T. punt 67 yards to the EMU23, downed, PENALTY ODU illegal block 5 yards to the ODU5, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:02
4TH & 6
OWN 5
+15
80.1%
CERVI, Jarrett punt 63 yards to the EMU32, out-of-bounds, PENALTY EMU roughing the kicker (KATHALAY, O.) 15 yards to the ODU20, 1ST DOWN ODU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+45
81.2%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to Jonathan Duhart for 45 yds to the EMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-12
82.3%
Taylor Heinicke sacked by Pat O'Connor for a loss of 12 yards to the EMich 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 10PUNT5 plays · -7 yds · 0:0019% → 18%
Q2 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-7
80.8%
ALLEN, Tyler rush for no gain to the EMU15 (MISHER, F.), PENALTY EMU illegal block (HILL, Bronson) 7 yards to the EMU8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:18
2ND & 18
OWN 7
+1
81.1%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Tyler Allen for 1 yd to the EMich 8Similar
Q2 8:18
4TH & 17
OWN 8
+41
81.9%
Austin Barnes punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the EMich 49 OLDDOMINION Penalty, kick catching interference off-setting ( Yards) to the EMich 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 11FUMBLE4 plays · 35 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
82.9%
Antonio Vaughan run for 8 yds to the EMich 14 Antonio Vaughan fumbled, forced by Amos Houston, recovered by EMich Anthony ZapponeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 12FUMBLE9 plays · 9 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q2 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
80.6%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Darius Jackson for 6 yds to the EMich 20Similar
Q2 5:31
2ND & 4
OWN 20
+7
80.3%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Tyreese Russell for 7 yds to the EMich 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
79.7%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Kris Strange, broken up by Sandy ChapmanSimilar
Q2 5:31
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-5
79.8%
EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, false start (Kris Strange) to the EMich 33Similar
Q2 5:31
3RD & 11
OWN 37
-10
81.0%
Brogan Roback sacked by Terrell Reid for a loss of 10 yards to the EMich 23 Brogan Roback fumbled, recovered by ODU Gary Scruggs , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 13DOWNS9 plays · 22 yds · 1:3883% → 81%
Q2 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+17
82.9%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to Zach Pascal for 17 yds to the EMich 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 14END OF HALF2 plays · 4 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
EMUDrive 15PUNT11 plays · 29 yds · 0:0020% → 19%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 37
-5
78.3%
Brogan Roback run for a loss of 5 yards to the ODU 42 Brogan Roback fumbled, recovered by EMich Ryan BrumfieldSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 14
OPP 42
-5
80.2%
EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, false start (Lincoln Hansen) to the ODU 47Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 18
OPP 46
0
81.1%
Owen Dubiel punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Antonio Vaughan at the ODU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 16PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0081% → 79%
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
80.8%
Taylor Heinicke pass incomplete to Zach Pascal, broken up by DaQuan PaceSimilar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+4
80.6%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to Zach Pascal for 4 yds to the ODU 16Similar
Q3 10:45
3RD & 6
OWN 16
-3
80.1%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to Gerard Johnson for a loss of 3 yards to the ODU 13Similar
Q3 10:45
4TH & 9
OWN 13
0
79.2%
Jarrett Cervi punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Tyler Allen at the EMich 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 17PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0021% → 20%
ODUDrive 18PUNT6 plays · 46 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q3 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
82.8%
Taylor Heinicke pass incomplete to Antonio Vaughan, broken up by DaQuan PaceSimilar
Q3 7:11
2ND & 9
OWN 46
0
84.5%
Taylor Heinicke pass incomplete to Antonio Vaughan, broken up by DaQuan PaceSimilar
Q3 7:11
3RD & 9
OWN 46
+1
83.2%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to David Washington for 1 yd to the ODU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 19PUNT7 plays · 8 yds · 0:0020% → 18%
Q3 5:21
2ND & 5
OWN 13
0
79.9%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Cole Gardner, broken up by Eriq LewisSimilar
Q3 5:21
3RD & 5
OWN 13
+9
81.1%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Tyler Allen for 9 yds to the EMich 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-8
79.7%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Ryan Brumfield for a loss of 8 yards to the EMich 14Similar
Q3 5:21
4TH & 16
OWN 16
+24
81.7%
Austin Barnes punt for 35 yds , Antonio Vaughan returns for 24 yds to the EMich 40 OLDDOMINION Penalty, Offensive holding (N/A) to the EMich 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 20FG7 plays · 28 yds · 2:4485% → 87%
Q3 2:55
2ND & 2
OPP 29
+12
85.3%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to Vincent Lowe for 12 yds to the EMich 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 21FG16 plays · 49 yds · 5:5813% → 17%
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
87.2%
Rob Bolden pass complete to Kris Strange for 5 yds to the EMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
86.4%
Rob Bolden pass complete to Kris Strange for 7 yds to the EMich 43Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 22
-4
84.7%
Rob Bolden run for a loss of 4 yards to the ODU 26 Rob Bolden fumbled, recovered by EMich Rob BoldenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 22PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0088% → 86%
Q4 9:13
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
86.6%
Taylor Heinicke pass incomplete OLDDOMINION Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 23PUNT RETURN TD4 plays · -3 yds · 0:5416% → 6%
Q4 7:28
4TH & 13
OWN 4
+46
94.3%
Austin Barnes punt for 42 yds , Antonio Vaughan returns for 46 yds for a TD, (Ricky Segers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 25PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:001% → 1%
ODUDrive 26DOWNS10 plays · 43 yds · 3:0899% → 100%
Q4 5:41
3RD & 9
OWN 18
+47
99.4%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to Antonio Vaughan for 47 yds to the EMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:41
3RD & 11
OPP 36
+6
99.5%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to Vincent Lowe for 6 yds to the EMich 30Similar
Q4 2:45
4TH & 5
OPP 30
-10
99.7%
Taylor Heinicke sacked by Pat O'Connor for a loss of 10 yards to the EMich 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 27FUMBLE4 plays · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
50
-3
99.8%
Rob Bolden sacked by Chris Smith for a loss of 3 yards to the EMich 47Similar
Q4 2:40
2ND & 13
OWN 47
0
99.8%
Rob Bolden pass incomplete to Tyler Allen, broken up by Reggie OwensSimilar
Q4 2:40
3RD & 13
OWN 47
-4
99.8%
Rob Bolden sacked by Poncho Barnwell for a loss of 4 yards to the EMich 43 Rob Bolden fumbled, recovered by ODU Andrew Everett , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 28END OF GAME3 plays · -14 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Biggest swings
PUNT · Q4 7:28
Austin Barnes punt for 42 yds , Antonio Vaughan returns for 46 yds for a TD, (Ricky Segers KICK)
+8.8
TD · Q4 7:28
Timeout EASTRN MICHIGAN, clock 07:28
+5.1
KEY PLAY · Q4 9:13
Gerard Johnson run for 2 yds to the ODU 27
+3.9