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EMU

Eastern Michigan 30 at Buffalo 31

BUF
2025 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2025 · UB Stadium
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Win probability · BUF
modelBUF aheadEMU aheadconfidence bandkey playBUF scoreEMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTQ4OTQ4OTQ4OTQ4OTQ4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Jack Howes 50 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+28.5+14.30−14.3−28.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OTQ4OTQ4OTQ4OTQ4OTQ4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:44: Dontae McMillan run for 3 yds for a TD (Rudy Kessinger KICK) — EMU win probability +6.9 pts (now 38%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 3:11: Noah Kim pass complete to Dontae McMillan for 38 yds for a TD — EMU win probability +19.9 pts (now 60%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:02: Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Victor Snow for 19 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK) — BUF win probability +21.6 pts (now 68%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 8:59: Rudy Kessinger 42 yd FG GOOD — EMU win probability +9.8 pts (now 60%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:00: Jack Howes 50 yd FG GOOD — BUF win probability +46.0 pts (now 59%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BUF made the numbers' call on 7 of 8EMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 13:39EMU 4th & 7 at EMU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.6%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:43BUF 4th & 3 at BUF 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 74.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:07EMU 4th & 10 at BUF 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.0%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.2%
    56% to make
    Punt
    27.8%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:30BUF 4th & 7 at BUF 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.4%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:09EMU 4th & 3 at BUF 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.4%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    30.6%−0.8
    40% to make
    Punt
    30.5%−0.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:22BUF 4th & 11 at BUF 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.6%−2.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:41EMU 4th & 14 at EMU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.2%−2.7
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.9%
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:37BUF 4th & 2 at EMU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    66.0%−1.6
    58% to make
    Punt
    59.9%−7.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:33EMU 4th & 7 at EMU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.2%−2.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:25BUF 4th & 14 at BUF 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.0%−4.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:41EMU 4th & 1 at EMU 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    38.8%−3.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:21EMU 4th & 4 at EMU 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 42.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.0%−1.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:38BUF 4th & 9 at BUF 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.7%−5.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:39EMU 4th & 1 at EMU 32, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 5.4 ptsPunted · 42.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.6%−5.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:59EMU 4th & 24 at BUF 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.8%−9.0
    6% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.8%
    68% to make
    Punt
    23.4%−19.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:30BUF 4th & 1 at EMU 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.9%−0.3
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.2%
    75% to make
    Punt
    24.3%−18.9
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:58EMU 4th & 8 at BUF 47, up 3
    Close callPunted · 87.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.2%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.1%−0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:00BUF 4th & 5 at EMU 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.1%−7.9
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.0%
    51% to make
    Punt
    14.4%−18.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BUF made the numbers' call on 2 of 2EMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 8:50EMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:39BUF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:44EMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 0:02BUF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
EMUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:0322% → 22%
Q1 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
78.4%
Ben Prosper run for a loss of 2 yards to the EMU 23Similar
Q1 14:13
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+5
78.3%
Noah Kim pass complete to Joshua Long for 5 yds to the EMU 28Similar
Q1 13:46
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
78.2%
Noah Kim pass incomplete to Joshua LongSimilar
Q1 13:39
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
78.2%
Mitchell Tomasek punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BUF 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:5278% → 78%
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
78.1%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Nik McMillanSimilar
Q1 13:27
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+7
78.1%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 7 yds to the BUF 41Similar
Q1 12:55
3RD & 3
OWN 41
0
78.0%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Patrick Clacks IIISimilar
Q1 12:43
4TH & 3
OWN 41
0
77.9%
Dylan Drennan punt for 57 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 3TD
8 plays · 99 yds · 3:3822% → 26%
Q1 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
77.9%
Noah Kim run for 2 yds to the EMU 3Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+7
77.8%
Dontae McMillan run for 7 yds to the EMU 10Similar
Q1 11:25
3RD & 1
OWN 10
+17
77.7%
Dontae McMillan run for 17 yds to the EMU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
77.4%
Noah Kim pass complete to Porter Rooks for 5 yds to the EMU 32Similar
Q1 10:29
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+13
77.1%
Ben Prosper run for 13 yds to the EMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
76.9%
Dontae McMillan run for 7 yds to the BUF 48Similar
Q1 9:22
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+3
76.5%
Tavierre Dunlap run for 3 yds to the BUF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
74.5%
Noah Kim pass complete to Nick Devereaux for 45 yds for a TD (Rudy Kessinger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 4TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q1 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
76.7%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Victor Snow for 75 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 5MISSED FG
10 plays · 45 yds · 5:1423% → 25%
Q1 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
76.6%
Noah Kim pass complete to Tavierre Dunlap for 4 yds to the EMU 21Similar
Q1 7:51
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+7
76.6%
Noah Kim run for 7 yds to the EMU 28Similar
Q1 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
75.3%
Tavierre Dunlap run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:48
2ND & 8
50
+8
75.2%
Noah Kim pass complete to Ben Prosper for 8 yds to the BUF 42 for a 1ST down Buffalo Penalty, Defensive Offside (Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+12
75.0%
Noah Kim pass complete to Tavierre Dunlap for 12 yds to the BUF 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
74.7%
Tavierre Dunlap run for 2 yds to the BUF 28Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+5
74.3%
Noah Kim pass complete to Ben Prosper for 5 yds to the BUF 33Similar
Q1 3:44
3RD & 13
OPP 33
+3
74.9%
Noah Kim pass complete to Porter Rooks for 3 yds to the BUF 30Similar
Q1 3:07
4TH & 10
OPP 30
+47
75.1%
Rudy Kessinger 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 1:2675% → 75%
Q1 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
75.2%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 9 yds to the BUF 39Similar
Q1 2:42
2ND & 1
OWN 39
0
75.9%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Jasaiah GathingsSimilar
Q1 2:34
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+2
75.7%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 2 yds to the BUF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
75.7%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 3 yds to the BUF 44Similar
Q1 1:44
2ND & 7
OWN 44
0
75.9%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Al-Jay HendersonSimilar
Q1 1:40
3RD & 7
OWN 44
0
75.3%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Jasaiah GathingsSimilar
Q1 1:30
4TH & 7
OWN 44
0
74.7%
Dylan Drennan punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 7TD
19 plays · 94 yds · 7:3326% → 38%
Q1 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+2
74.3%
Dontae McMillan run for 2 yds to the EMU 8Similar
Q1 0:39
2ND & 8
OWN 8
+1
74.2%
Dontae McMillan run for 1 yd to the EMU 9Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 7
OWN 9
+15
74.4%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun Kim,Noah pass incomplete short left to Rooks,Porter thrown to EMU23 PENALTY BUF Pass Interference (Bradley,Keontez) 15 yards from EMU09 to EMU24, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
73.6%
Tavierre Dunlap run for 11 yds to the EMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
73.2%
Noah Kim pass complete to Nick Devereaux for 6 yds to the EMU 41Similar
Q2 14:02
2ND & 4
OWN 41
0
72.3%
Noah Kim pass incomplete to Porter RooksSimilar
Q2 13:51
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+5
72.4%
Noah Kim pass complete to Joshua Long for 5 yds to the EMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
72.0%
Tavierre Dunlap run for 1 yd to the EMU 47Similar
Q2 12:52
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+9
71.9%
Tavierre Dunlap run for 9 yds to the BUF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
71.3%
Tavierre Dunlap run for 4 yds to the BUF 40Similar
Q2 11:55
2ND & 6
OPP 40
0
70.9%
Noah Kim pass incomplete to Ben ProsperSimilar
Q2 11:46
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+3
71.3%
Dontae McMillan run for 3 yds to the BUF 37Similar
Q2 11:09
4TH & 3
OPP 37
+7
71.8%
Noah Kim pass complete to Joshua Long for 7 yds to the BUF 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
70.0%
Dontae McMillan run for 7 yds to the BUF 23Similar
Q2 10:11
2ND & 3
OPP 23
0
69.7%
Noah Kim pass incomplete to Joshua LongSimilar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+4
70.2%
Tavierre Dunlap run for 4 yds to the BUF 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
69.1%
Tavierre Dunlap run for 2 yds to the BUF 17Similar
Q2 8:50
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+14
68.7%
(09:15) No Huddle-Shotgun Kim,Noah pass incomplete short left to Long,Joshua thrown to BUF00, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY BUF Pass Interference (Greer,Miles) 14 yards from BUF17 to BUF03, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
61.8%
Dontae McMillan run for 3 yds for a TD (Rudy Kessinger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:1570% → 67%
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.8%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Patrick Clacks IIISimilar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
69.6%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Nik McMillanSimilar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-1
67.9%
Al-Jay Henderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the BUF 24Similar
Q2 0:22
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
67.1%
Dylan Drennan punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Juan Salas at the EMU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 9TD
20 plays · 75 yds · 6:4473% → 72%
Q2 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
72.5%
Terrance Shelton Jr. run for 2 yds to the BUF 27Similar
Q2 7:49
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
72.1%
Terrance Shelton Jr. run for 2 yds to the BUF 29Similar
Q2 7:11
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+7
71.2%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Victor Snow for 7 yds to the BUF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
72.4%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Victor SnowSimilar
Q2 6:44
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
72.0%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Terrance Shelton Jr.Similar
Q2 6:37
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+15
71.0%
(06:44) No Huddle-Shotgun Roberson,Ta'Quan pass incomplete deep right to McMillan,Nik thrown to EMU24 PENALTY EMU Pass Interference (Rogers,Donmiel) 15 yards from BUF36 to EMU49, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
73.7%
Jason Wright run for 9 yds to the EMU 40 Buffalo Penalty, Offensive Holding (Nik McMillan) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 6:04
2ND & 11
50
+1
72.7%
Jason Wright run for 1 yd to the EMU 49Similar
Q2 5:41
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+15
71.8%
(05:41) No Huddle-Shotgun Wright,Jason pass incomplete deep right to McMillan,Nik thrown to EMU20 PENALTY EMU Pass Interference (Scott,Joshua) 15 yards from EMU49 to EMU34, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
74.0%
Jason Wright run for 2 yds to the EMU 32Similar
Q2 4:54
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+7
73.9%
Jason Wright run for 7 yds to the EMU 25Similar
Q2 4:13
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+1
73.0%
Jason Wright run for 1 yd to the EMU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-2
73.7%
Jason Wright sacked by Warren-Stevens Tayou for a loss of 2 yards to the EMU 26Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 12
OPP 26
+17
73.4%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 17 yds to the EMU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
73.2%
Ta'Quan Roberson run for 2 yds to the EMU 7Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
72.6%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Nik McMillanSimilar
Q2 1:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
71.5%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Patrick Clacks III for 7 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 10PUNT
10 plays · 8 yds · 1:0633% → 32%
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
66.7%
Noah Kim pass incomplete to Nick DevereauxSimilar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
66.9%
Noah Kim pass complete to Dontae McMillan for 8 yds to the EMU 33Similar
Q2 1:36
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
66.0%
Noah Kim pass complete to Ben Prosper for 4 yds to the EMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
65.5%
Noah Kim pass incomplete to Nick DevereauxSimilar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+4
65.9%
Dontae McMillan run for 4 yds to the EMU 41Similar
Q2 0:53
3RD & 6
OWN 41
-15
64.4%
(01:17) No Huddle-Shotgun Kim,Noah pass complete deep right to Wheeler,Jamarien caught at BUF36, for 59 yards to the BUF00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 00:53 PENALTY EMU Pass Interference (Wheeler,Jamarien) 15 yards from EMU41 to EMU26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:46
3RD & 21
OWN 26
+7
67.5%
Dontae McMillan run for 7 yds to the EMU 33Similar
Q2 0:41
4TH & 14
OWN 33
0
68.0%
Mitchell Tomasek punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BUF 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 11DOWNS
9 plays · 46 yds · 3:0670% → 70%
Q3 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
69.9%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 2 yds to the BUF 28Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+18
69.8%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Nik McMillan for 18 yds to the BUF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
71.8%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 6 yds to the EMU 48Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+11
72.3%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 11 yds to the EMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
71.9%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 1 yd to the EMU 36Similar
Q3 12:32
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+6
71.8%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Evan King for 6 yds to the EMU 30Similar
Q3 12:07
3RD & 3
OPP 30
+1
71.2%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Terrance Shelton Jr. for 1 yd to the EMU 29Similar
Q3 11:37
4TH & 2
OPP 29
+1
69.6%
Terrance Shelton Jr. run for 1 yd to the EMU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:5335% → 33%
Q3 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
65.1%
Tavierre Dunlap run for 1 yd to the EMU 29Similar
Q3 10:42
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+7
64.9%
Noah Kim pass complete to Tavierre Dunlap for 7 yds to the EMU 36Similar
Q3 10:06
3RD & 2
OWN 36
-5
63.7%
(10:34) PENALTY EMU Delay Of Game 5 yards from EMU36 to EMU31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:41
3RD & 7
OWN 31
0
65.3%
Noah Kim pass incomplete to Nick DevereauxSimilar
Q3 9:33
4TH & 7
OWN 31
0
66.6%
Mitchell Tomasek punt for 49 yds , Victor Snow returns for no gain to the BUF 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:0267% → 65%
Q3 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-7
67.4%
Buffalo Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Ta'Quan Roberson) to the BUF 13Similar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 17
OWN 13
+3
67.0%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Patrick Clacks III for 3 yds to the BUF 16Similar
Q3 8:40
3RD & 14
OWN 16
0
65.4%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Patrick Clacks IIISimilar
Q3 8:25
4TH & 14
OWN 16
0
64.6%
Dylan Drennan punt for 76 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 14TD
10 plays · 96 yds · 5:0635% → 60%
Q3 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+3
64.7%
Dontae McMillan run for 3 yds to the EMU 7Similar
Q3 7:32
2ND & 7
OWN 7
+11
64.7%
Noah Kim pass complete to Nick Devereaux for 11 yds to the EMU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+16
63.6%
Dontae McMillan run for 16 yds to the EMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
62.4%
Tavierre Dunlap run for 6 yds to the EMU 40Similar
Q3 5:56
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+2
60.1%
Tavierre Dunlap run for 2 yds to the EMU 42Similar
Q3 5:27
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+1
60.0%
Tavierre Dunlap run for 1 yd to the EMU 43Similar
Q3 4:41
4TH & 1
OWN 43
+2
61.3%
Tavierre Dunlap run for 2 yds to the EMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
58.6%
Noah Kim pass incomplete to Ben ProsperSimilar
Q3 3:52
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+17
59.4%
Dontae McMillan run for 17 yds to the BUF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
39.6%
Noah Kim pass complete to Dontae McMillan for 38 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 15TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:5944% → 68%
Q3 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
44.0%
Al-Jay Henderson run for no gain to the BUF 25Similar
Q3 2:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
43.4%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Al-Jay Henderson for 15 yds to the BUF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
46.1%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Evan King for 8 yds to the BUF 48Similar
Q3 1:50
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+2
47.5%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
50
+16
47.1%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Jasaiah Gathings for 16 yds to the EMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
49.2%
(00:50) No Huddle-Shotgun Roberson,Ta'Quan pass incomplete short left to Gathings,Jasaiah thrown to EMU15 broken up by Deener,Tyrelle PENALTY EMU Pass Interference (Deener,Tyrelle) 15 yards from EMU34 to EMU19, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
49.1%
Al-Jay Henderson run for no gain to the EMU 19Similar
Q3 0:11
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
46.2%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Jasaiah GathingsSimilar
Q3 0:02
3RD & 10
OPP 19
+19
67.8%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Victor Snow for 19 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:3940% → 42%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
59.8%
(00:02) No Huddle-Shotgun Kim,Noah pass incomplete deep middle to Devereaux,Nick thrown to BUF50 PENALTY BUF Pass Interference (Greer,Miles) 15 yards from EMU25 to EMU40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
57.1%
Dontae McMillan run for no gain to the EMU 40Similar
Q4 14:02
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+6
57.4%
Noah Kim run for 6 yds to the EMU 46Similar
Q4 13:30
3RD & 4
OWN 46
0
55.5%
Noah Kim pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:21
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
58.4%
Mitchell Tomasek punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 17TD
3 plays · 25 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
67.5%
T.Roberson pass complete. Catch made by N.McMillan for 8 yards. Tackled by C.Dobbs at EMU 17.Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 2
OPP 17
+8
67.5%
A.Henderson rushed for 8 yards. Tackled by B.Manning at EMU 9.Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
67.5%
V.Snow rushed for 9 yards. TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 18FUMBLE
9 plays · 25 yds · 0:0060% → 58%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
39.9%
N.Kim steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for EMU.Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+7
40.9%
D.McMillan rushed for 7 yards. Tackled by R.Murdock; S.Brown at BUFF 18.Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+5
42.4%
N.Kim rushed for 5 yards. Tackled by M.Gonser at BUFF 13.Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
39.8%
N.Kim pass complete. Catch made by T.Dunlap for 6 yards. Tackled by S.Brown; S.Brown at BUFF 7.Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 7
+4
39.8%
N.Kim rushed for 4 yards. Tackled by M.Greer at BUFF 3.Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
39.4%
T.Dunlap rushed for 1 yards. Tackled by S.Brown; K.Stewart at BUFF 2.Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
39.8%
T.Dunlap rushed for 1 yards. Tackled by BUFF at BUFF 1.Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
42.3%
N.Kim rushed for 1 yards. TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:3463% → 59%
Q4 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
62.9%
Terrance Shelton Jr. run for 1 yd to the BUF 21Similar
Q4 12:52
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
62.5%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Marcus VelezSimilar
Q4 12:47
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
60.6%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Patrick Clacks IIISimilar
Q4 12:38
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
59.2%
Dylan Drennan punt for 56 yds , Juan Salas returns for no gain to the EMU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4742% → 41%
Q4 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
58.5%
Tavierre Dunlap run for 5 yds to the EMU 28Similar
Q4 11:51
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+4
57.2%
Tavierre Dunlap run for 4 yds to the EMU 32Similar
Q4 11:14
3RD & 1
OWN 32
0
56.6%
Tavierre Dunlap run for no gain to the EMU 32Similar
Q4 10:39
4TH & 1
OWN 32
0
58.8%
Mitchell Tomasek punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BUF 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 20FUMBLE
1 play · -5 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
61.8%
Ta'Quan Roberson sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the BUF 6 Ta'Quan Roberson fumbled, recovered by EMU Carter Evans , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 21FG
5 plays · -18 yds · 1:2750% → 60%
Q4 10:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
50.0%
Noah Kim pass incomplete to Ben ProsperSimilar
Q4 10:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
50.0%
Dontae McMillan run for 2 yds to the BUF 4Similar
Q4 9:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-20
50.0%
Noah Kim run for a loss of 20 yards to the BUF 24 TEAM fumbled, recovered by EMUSimilar
Q4 8:59
4TH & GOAL
OPP 24
+42
40.2%
Rudy Kessinger 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 22MISSED FG
8 plays · 55 yds · 3:1444% → 42%
Q4 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
43.5%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Victor Snow for 17 yds to the BUF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
47.4%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Al-Jay Henderson for 15 yds to the EMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+14
49.4%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 14 yds to the EMU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
50.9%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Victor Snow for 2 yds to the EMU 27Similar
Q4 6:50
2ND & 8
OPP 27
0
49.6%
Al-Jay Henderson run for no gain to the EMU 27Similar
Q4 6:03
3RD & 8
OPP 27
+7
45.9%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Evan King for 7 yds to the EMU 20Similar
Q4 5:30
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+39
41.8%
Jack Howes 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 23PUNT
16 plays · 32 yds · 4:0670% → 92%
Q4 5:03
1ST & 9
OWN 21
0
30.0%
Dontae McMillan run for no gain to the EMU 21Similar
Q4 4:38
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+5
29.3%
Noah Kim run for 5 yds to the EMU 26Similar
Q4 3:57
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+5
27.1%
Dontae McMillan run for 5 yds to the EMU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
22.5%
Dontae McMillan run for 9 yds to the EMU 40Similar
Q4 2:21
2ND & 1
OWN 40
0
16.9%
Dontae McMillan run for no gain to the EMU 40Similar
Q4 2:13
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+11
17.3%
Tavierre Dunlap run for 11 yds to the BUF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
9.7%
Tavierre Dunlap run for no gain to the BUF 49Similar
Q4 1:49
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+3
9.2%
Tavierre Dunlap run for 3 yds to the BUF 46Similar
Q4 1:40
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+4
9.6%
Tavierre Dunlap run for 4 yds to the BUF 42Similar
Q4 0:58
4TH & 8
OPP 47
0
9.6%
Mitchell Tomasek punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Victor Snow at the BUF 9Similar
Q4 0:57
4TH & 3
OPP 42
-5
8.5%
PENALTY EMU Delay Of Game 5 yards from BUF42 to BUF47. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 24FG
12 plays · 59 yds · 0:5219% → 59%
Q4 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
18.6%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Victor SnowSimilar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 10
OWN 9
0
17.6%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Nik McMillanSimilar
Q4 0:37
3RD & 10
OWN 9
+27
16.6%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Jasaiah Gathings for 27 yds to the BUF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+16
16.0%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Victor Snow for 16 yds to the EMU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
17.7%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Jasaiah GathingsSimilar
Q4 0:20
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
16.2%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete to Patrick Clacks IIISimilar
Q4 0:12
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+11
13.4%
Ta'Quan Roberson run for 11 yds to the EMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
16.5%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:08
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+5
15.6%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Patrick Clacks III for 5 yds to the EMU 32Similar
Q4 0:05
3RD & 5
OPP 32
0
18.0%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 5
OPP 32
+50
59.4%
Jack Howes 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:00
Jack Howes 50 yd FG GOOD
+46
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+40.6
TD · Q3 0:02
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Victor Snow for 19 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)
+21.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com