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EMU

Eastern Michigan 52 at Toledo 49

TOL
2021 · Week 10 · Nov 2, 2021 · Glass Bowl
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Win probability · TOL
modelTOL aheadEMU aheadconfidence bandkey playTOL scoreEMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:23 · Jake Julien punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+37.5+18.80−18.8−37.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 28Pregame prior+20.5Home team on offense+1.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential+0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:50: Chad Ryland kickoff for 62 yds , Jacquez Stuart return for 97 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK) — TOL win probability +14.6 pts (now 74%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:52: Samson Evans run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chad Ryland KICK) — EMU win probability +15.1 pts (now 69%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:32: Dequan Finn pass complete to Matt Landers for 26 yds for a TD, (Dequan Finn pass to Bryant Koback for Two-Point Conversion) — TOL win probability +16.1 pts (now 37%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:34: Jawon Hamilton run for 32 yds for a TD, (Chad Ryland KICK) — EMU win probability +15.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:14: Micah Kelly run for 10 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK) — TOL win probability +29.1 pts (now 39%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TOL made the numbers' call on 5 of 6EMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 7:23EMU 4th & 8 at TOL 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.8%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:02TOL 4th & 6 at TOL 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.1%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:22EMU 4th & 19 at EMU 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.4%−0.8
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:13TOL 4th & 10 at EMU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.9%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.2%
    56% to make
    Punt
    70.7%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:39EMU 4th & 8 at EMU 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.4%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:12EMU 4th & 11 at TOL 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.5%−0.8
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.2%
    81% to make
    Punt
    20.5%−3.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:09TOL 4th & 8 at EMU 43, up 4
    Close callPunted · 72.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.2%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    71.7%−0.5
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    72.1%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:35EMU 4th & 1 at TOL 1, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.4%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    38.6%−3.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    28.7%−13.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:37TOL 4th & 9 at TOL 12, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.7%−2.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.4%
    average punt
  10. Q4 11:59EMU 4th & 14 at EMU 44, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.2%−4.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.3%
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:40TOL 4th & 8 at TOL 22, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.9%−2.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.0%
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:53EMU 4th & 6 at EMU 33, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.9%−1.0
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:35EMU 4th & 2 at TOL 20, up 3
    Close callWent for it · 87.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.7%−0.4
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    87.1%
    75% to make
    Punt
    67.1%−19.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:00TOL 4th & 3 at TOL 45, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    14.3%−5.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TOL made the numbers' call on 5 of 7EMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 13:33TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:53EMU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 10:04TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 2:31EMU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 13:28TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 4:02EMU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 3:50TOL Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 13:16EMU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 5:52EMU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 4:23EMU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  11. Q3 0:32TOL Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    28.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    28.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 10:34EMU Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.4%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.6%
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 7:48TOL Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    18.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    17.5%−0.6
    45% to convert
  14. Q4 2:14TOL Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.2%−0.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TOLDrive 1TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:1773% → 74%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
73.3%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 19 yds to the Toled 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+14
73.3%
Bryant Koback run for 14 yds to the EMich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
73.3%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Devin Maddox. EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the EMich 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
73.3%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 5 yds to the EMich 22Similar
Q1 13:33
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+22
73.6%
Bryant Koback run for 22 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 2TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:3727% → 28%
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
73.5%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Dylan Drummond for 11 yds to the EMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
73.4%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Zach Westmoreland for 4 yds to the EMich 40Similar
Q1 12:43
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+10
73.4%
Bryant, Ben pass incomplete to Beydoun, Hassan, PENALTY TOLEDO holding 10 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN EASTMICH.Similar
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
50
0
73.3%
Ben Bryant pass incomplete to Dylan Drummond, broken up by Samuel WomackSimilar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 10
50
0
73.4%
Ben Bryant pass incomplete to Dylan DrummondSimilar
Q1 12:27
3RD & 10
50
+12
73.5%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Hassan Beydoun for 12 yds to the Toled 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
73.4%
Samson Evans run for 2 yds to the Toled 36Similar
Q1 11:24
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+18
73.4%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Hassan Beydoun for 18 yds to the Toled 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
72.0%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Tanner Knue for 18 yds for a TD, (Chad Ryland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 3TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:4673% → 74%
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
72.5%
Dequan Finn run for 8 yds to the Toled 33Similar
Q1 10:14
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
72.7%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Isaiah WinsteadSimilar
Q1 10:04
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+67
73.9%
Bryant Koback run for 67 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 2:3726% → 26%
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
73.7%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Tanner Knue for 6 yds to the EMich 31Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
73.6%
Darius Boone Jr. run for no gain to the EMich 31Similar
Q1 9:35
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+19
73.8%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Samson Evans for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
50
+1
73.4%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Hassan Beydoun for 1 yd to the Toled 49Similar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+1
73.5%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Gunnar Oakes for 1 yd to the Toled 48Similar
Q1 7:33
3RD & 8
OPP 48
0
73.7%
Ben Bryant pass incomplete to Dylan DrummondSimilar
Q1 7:23
4TH & 8
OPP 48
0
74.1%
Jake Julien punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 2:1874% → 74%
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
74.2%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 11 yds to the Toled 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
74.3%
Bryant Koback run for 1 yd to the Toled 32Similar
Q1 6:28
2ND & 9
OWN 32
0
74.3%
Dequan Finn run for no gain to the Toled 32Similar
Q1 5:55
3RD & 9
OWN 32
+8
74.1%
Dequan Finn pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 8 yds to the Toled 40Similar
Q1 5:20
4TH & 1
OWN 40
-5
74.3%
TOLEDO Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Toled 35Similar
Q1 5:02
4TH & 6
OWN 35
0
74.0%
Bailey Flint punt for 34 yds, downed at the EMich 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 6FUMBLE
5 plays · -9 yds · 1:2326% → 25%
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
74.1%
Ben Bryant sacked by Dyontae Johnson for a loss of 2 yards to the EMich 29Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 12
OWN 29
-7
74.3%
Ben Bryant sacked by Jamal Hines for a loss of 7 yards to the EMich 22Similar
Q1 3:35
3RD & 19
OWN 22
0
74.8%
Ben Bryant pass incomplete to Tanner KnueSimilar
Q1 3:22
4TH & 19
OWN 22
-8
75.0%
Jake Julien punt for 57 yds , Devin Maddox returns for a loss of 8 yards to the Toled 13 Devin Maddox fumbled, recovered by EMich Blake BoganSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 7TD
4 plays · 13 yds · 0:5127% → 31%
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
72.9%
TOLEDO Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Toled 8Similar
Q1 3:15
1ST & 5
OPP 8
+2
72.9%
Darius Boone Jr. run for 2 yds to the Toled 6Similar
Q1 2:37
2ND & 3
OPP 6
0
73.1%
Ben Bryant pass incomplete to Tanner KnueSimilar
Q1 2:31
3RD & 3
OPP 6
+6
69.2%
Samson Evans pass complete to Hassan Beydoun for 6 yds for a TD, (Chad Ryland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 8MISSED FG
8 plays · 45 yds · 2:1871% → 71%
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
71.3%
TOLEDO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Toled 20Similar
Q1 2:06
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+36
71.1%
Dequan Finn pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 36 yds to the EMich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+14
72.3%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 14 yds to the EMich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
72.7%
Micah Kelly run for 3 yds to the EMich 27Similar
Q1 0:45
2ND & 7
OPP 27
-3
72.6%
Dequan Finn run for a loss of 3 yards to the EMich 30Similar
Q1 0:17
3RD & 10
OPP 30
0
72.0%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Danzel McKinley-LewisSimilar
Q1 0:13
4TH & 10
OPP 30
+48
70.8%
Thomas Cluckey 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:3130% → 30%
Q1 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
69.6%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Tanner Knue for 6 yds to the EMich 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+5
68.9%
Jawon Hamilton run for 5 yds to the EMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
68.6%
Ben Bryant pass incomplete to Dylan DrummondSimilar
Q2 14:02
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+2
68.7%
Jawon Hamilton run for 2 yds to the EMich 43Similar
Q2 13:47
3RD & 8
OWN 43
0
68.8%
Ben Bryant pass incomplete to Dylan DrummondSimilar
Q2 13:39
4TH & 8
OWN 43
0
69.7%
Jake Julien punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Devin Maddox at the Toled 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 10TD
1 play · 80 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q2 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+80
75.4%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Matt Landers for 80 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 11FG
11 plays · 46 yds · 3:0826% → 28%
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
74.5%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Tanner Knue for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
50
+12
73.7%
Darius Boone Jr. run for 12 yds to the Toled 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
73.7%
Ben Bryant pass incomplete to Dylan DrummondSimilar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+7
73.7%
Darius Boone Jr. run for 7 yds to the Toled 31Similar
Q2 12:15
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+16
73.8%
Jawon Hamilton run for 16 yds to the Toled 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
73.0%
Ben Bryant pass incomplete to Jawon HamiltonSimilar
Q2 11:25
2ND & 10
OPP 15
-4
73.0%
Ben Bryant sacked by Jamal Hines and Desjuan Johnson for a loss of 4 yards to the Toled 19Similar
Q2 10:50
3RD & 14
OPP 19
+3
74.4%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Samson Evans for 3 yds to the Toled 16Similar
Q2 10:12
4TH & 11
OPP 16
+34
72.0%
Chad Ryland 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 12PUNT
11 plays · 32 yds · 2:5272% → 73%
Q2 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
71.6%
Bryant Koback run for 11 yds to the Toled 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
72.3%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 5 yds to the Toled 41Similar
Q2 9:21
2ND & 5
OWN 41
-5
72.9%
Finn, Dequan pass complete to Winstead, Isaiah for 12 yards to the EASTMICH47, PENALTY TOLEDO ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the TOLEDO36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+2
72.0%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 2 yds to the Toled 38Similar
Q2 8:25
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+17
72.8%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 17 yds to the EMich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
74.9%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Isaiah WinsteadSimilar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
74.8%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jerjuan NewtonSimilar
Q2 7:40
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+2
73.9%
Dequan Finn run for 2 yds to the EMich 43Similar
Q2 7:09
4TH & 8
OPP 43
0
73.3%
Bailey Flint punt for 33 yds, downed at the EMich 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 13TD
8 plays · 90 yds · 2:5825% → 41%
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+14
74.6%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Hassan Beydoun for 14 yds to the EMich 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+10
74.4%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Thomas Odukoya for 10 yds to the EMich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
73.9%
Ben Bryant pass incomplete to Dylan Drummond, broken up by Samuel WomackSimilar
Q2 5:50
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+17
74.2%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Hassan Beydoun for 17 yds to the Toled 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
72.0%
Darius Boone Jr. run for 4 yds to the Toled 45Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+29
72.1%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Hassan Beydoun for 29 yds to the Toled 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+14
70.6%
Darius Boone Jr. run for 14 yds to the Toled 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
59.3%
Samson Evans run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chad Ryland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 15INT
6 plays · 35 yds · 2:0526% → 29%
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
74.2%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Hassan Beydoun for 11 yds to the EMich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
73.1%
Jawon Hamilton run for 4 yds to the EMich 43Similar
Q2 2:35
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+2
72.4%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Tanner Knue for 2 yds to the EMich 45Similar
Q2 2:10
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+18
72.5%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Hassan Beydoun for 18 yds to the Toled 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
70.6%
Ben Bryant pass intercepted Justin Clark return for no gain to the Toled 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 16END OF HALF
11 plays · 52 yds · 1:2073% → 74%
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
72.6%
Bryant Koback run for 5 yds to the Toled 17Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+12
72.6%
Bryant Koback run for 12 yds to the Toled 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
73.0%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Danzel McKinley-LewisSimilar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 10
OWN 29
-5
72.6%
TOLEDO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Toled 24Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 15
OWN 24
+15
72.4%
Bryant Koback run for 15 yds to the Toled 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
73.6%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 8 yds to the Toled 47Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+10
74.0%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 10 yds to the EMich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
74.3%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Isaiah Winstead, broken up by Mark Lee Jr.Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+7
74.1%
Dequan Finn pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 7 yds to the EMich 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 17TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:3429% → 43%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
70.8%
Darius Boone Jr. run for 6 yds to the EMich 31Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
69.6%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Hassan Beydoun for 3 yds to the EMich 34Similar
Q3 14:01
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
69.8%
Samson Evans run for 2 yds to the EMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+64
56.9%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Hassan Beydoun for 64 yds for a TD, (Chad Ryland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 18INT
3 plays · -9 yds · 0:0559% → 59%
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-9
59.1%
Bryant Koback run for 1 yd to the Toled 23 TOLEDO Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Toled 13Similar
Q3 12:55
1ST & 19
OWN 13
-16
58.7%
Dequan Finn pass intercepted Russell Vaden IV return for 16 yds to the Toled 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 19DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:1046% → 46%
Q3 12:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
53.8%
Jawon Hamilton run for 1 yd to the Toled 9Similar
Q3 12:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
53.6%
Jawon Hamilton run for 1 yd to the Toled 8Similar
Q3 10:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
52.5%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Gunnar Oakes for 7 yds to the Toled 1Similar
Q3 10:35
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
54.1%
Ben Bryant run for no gain to the Toled 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 1:4355% → 52%
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
54.7%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the Toled 3Similar
Q3 9:55
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+8
54.2%
Bryant Koback run for 8 yds to the Toled 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-9
55.2%
Dequan Finn sacked by Michael Smith Jr. for a loss of 9 yards to the Toled 2 TOLEDO Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the Toled 2Similar
Q3 9:21
2ND & 19
OWN 2
0
53.9%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Isaiah WinsteadSimilar
Q3 9:15
3RD & 19
OWN 2
+10
52.3%
Bryant Koback run for 10 yds to the Toled 12Similar
Q3 8:37
4TH & 9
OWN 12
0
52.2%
Bailey Flint punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Dylan Drummond at the Toled 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 21TD
6 plays · 43 yds · 2:4350% → 69%
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
49.8%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Dylan Drummond for 7 yds to the Toled 36Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 3
OPP 36
0
48.9%
Darius Boone Jr. run for no gain to the Toled 36Similar
Q3 7:15
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+5
48.7%
Samson Evans run for 5 yds to the Toled 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+18
47.2%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Thomas Odukoya for 18 yds to the Toled 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+11
46.2%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Tanner Knue for 11 yds to the Toled 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
31.1%
Samson Evans run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chad Ryland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 22FUMBLE
3 plays · -7 yds · 0:4234% → 34%
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
34.1%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the Toled 27Similar
Q3 5:08
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-9
33.8%
Dequan Finn sacked by Jose Ramirez for a loss of 9 yards to the Toled 18 Dequan Finn fumbled, recovered by EMichSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 23TD
2 plays · 18 yds · 0:3771% → 84%
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+7
28.7%
Ben Bryant run for 7 yds to the Toled 11Similar
Q3 4:23
2ND & 3
OPP 11
+11
15.7%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Dylan Drummond for 11 yds for a TD, (Chad Ryland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 24TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 3:2821% → 37%
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
20.7%
Bryant Koback run for 5 yds to the Toled 25Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+6
20.6%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 6 yds to the Toled 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+14
20.6%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 14 yds to the Toled 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-9
21.8%
Dequan Finn sacked by Alvinoski LaFleur for a loss of 9 yards to the Toled 36Similar
Q3 2:38
2ND & 19
OWN 36
+20
19.4%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Matt Landers for 20 yds to the EMich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
21.9%
Bryant Koback run for 5 yds to the EMich 39Similar
Q3 1:35
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+6
21.3%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Matt Landers for 6 yds to the EMich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
20.6%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Drew Rosi for 7 yds to the EMich 26Similar
Q3 0:32
2ND & 3
OPP 26
+26
36.8%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Matt Landers for 26 yds for a TD, (Dequan Finn pass to Bryant Koback for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 25PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 3:2171% → 71%
Q3 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
28.7%
Darius Boone Jr. run for 4 yds to the EMich 30Similar
Q4 14:58
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+3
28.0%
Darius Boone Jr. run for 3 yds to the EMich 33Similar
Q4 14:12
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+15
28.5%
Bryant, Ben pass incomplete to Beydoun, Hassan, PENALTY TOLEDO pass interference 15 yards to the EASTMICH48, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN EASTMICH.Similar
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-9
25.7%
Ben Bryant sacked by Desjuan Johnson for a loss of 9 yards to the EMich 39Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 19
OWN 39
+4
27.7%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Hassan Beydoun for 4 yds to the EMich 43Similar
Q4 12:45
3RD & 15
OWN 43
+1
27.6%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Samson Evans for 1 yd to the EMich 44Similar
Q4 11:59
4TH & 14
OWN 44
0
28.7%
Jake Julien punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1527% → 22%
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
26.7%
Dequan Finn run for 4 yds to the Toled 24Similar
Q4 11:25
2ND & 6
OWN 24
-2
26.2%
Dequan Finn sacked by Jose Ramirez for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 22Similar
Q4 10:45
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
23.2%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Isaiah WinsteadSimilar
Q4 10:40
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
22.2%
Bailey Flint punt for 10 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 27TD
1 play · 32 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
7.1%
Jawon Hamilton run for 32 yds for a TD, (Chad Ryland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 28TD
12 plays · 73 yds · 2:4210% → 21%
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
9.6%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 8 yds to the Toled 35Similar
Q4 9:52
2ND & 2
OWN 35
-5
9.2%
Finn, Dequan pass complete to Blankumsee, DeMeer for 24 yards to the EASTMICH41, PENALTY TOLEDO illegal formation 5 yards to the TOLEDO30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:40
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+6
8.7%
Micah Kelly run for 6 yds to the Toled 36Similar
Q4 9:30
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+4
8.6%
Micah Kelly run for 4 yds to the Toled 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
8.3%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Drew RosiSimilar
Q4 8:55
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
7.9%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jerjuan NewtonSimilar
Q4 8:51
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+5
7.8%
Finn, Dequan pass incomplete to Blankumsee, DeMeer, PENALTY EASTMICH offside 5 yards to the TOLEDO45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:45
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+27
8.2%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 27 yds to the EMich 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
9.4%
Micah Kelly run for 5 yds to the EMich 23Similar
Q4 8:08
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+18
9.2%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Micah Kelly for 18 yds to the EMich 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
21.1%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 5 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 29PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 2:5284% → 90%
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
15.7%
Darius Boone Jr. run for 3 yds to the EMich 13Similar
Q4 7:15
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+16
15.2%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Thomas Odukoya for 16 yds to the EMich 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
13.3%
Darius Boone Jr. run for 1 yd to the EMich 30Similar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+3
11.7%
Darius Boone Jr. run for 3 yds to the EMich 33Similar
Q4 5:02
3RD & 6
OWN 33
0
11.7%
Ben Bryant pass incomplete to Tanner KnueSimilar
Q4 4:53
4TH & 6
OWN 33
0
10.5%
Jake Julien punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Devin Maddox at the Toled 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 30TD
10 plays · 73 yds · 2:3611% → 39%
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
10.6%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:39
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+9
10.1%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Bryant Koback for 9 yds to the Toled 36Similar
Q4 4:30
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+6
11.3%
Micah Kelly run for 6 yds to the Toled 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
11.5%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Micah Kelly for 6 yds to the Toled 48Similar
Q4 3:40
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+18
11.6%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Matt Landers for 18 yds to the EMich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-4
9.9%
Dequan Finn sacked by Grant Trueman and Mikey Haney for a loss of 4 yards to the EMich 38Similar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 14
OPP 38
+19
7.9%
Dequan Finn run for 19 yds to the EMich 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
10.2%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Matt LandersSimilar
Q4 2:39
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+9
10.0%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 9 yds to the EMich 10Similar
Q4 2:14
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+10
39.1%
Micah Kelly run for 10 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 31DOWNS
9 plays · 27 yds · 1:3183% → 94%
Q4 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+18
17.4%
Jawon Hamilton run for 3 yds to the Toled 43 for a 1ST down TOLEDO Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Toled 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
10.3%
Jawon Hamilton run for no gain to the Toled 28Similar
Q4 1:36
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+3
9.4%
Darius Boone Jr. run for 3 yds to the Toled 25Similar
Q4 1:30
3RD & 7
OPP 25
+5
10.7%
Samson Evans run for 5 yds to the Toled 20Similar
Q4 0:35
4TH & 2
OPP 20
+1
5.8%
Darius Boone Jr. run for 1 yd to the Toled 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 32END OF GAME
5 plays · 60 yds · 0:3019% → 14%
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+19
19.4%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Drew Rosi for 19 yds to the Toled 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
16.5%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Bryant Koback for 7 yds to the Toled 45Similar
Q4 0:08
2ND & 3
OWN 45
0
18.2%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:03
3RD & 3
OWN 45
0
15.4%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 3
OWN 45
+23
14.1%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 11 yds to the EMich 21 for a 1ST down lat. to Devin Maddox for 23 yds to the EMich 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:14
Micah Kelly run for 10 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK)
+29.1
TD · Q3 0:32
Dequan Finn pass complete to Matt Landers for 26 yds for a TD, (Dequan Finn pass to Bryant Koback for Two-Point Conversion)
+16.1
TD · Q3 5:52
Samson Evans run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chad Ryland KICK)
-15.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com