Army

Profile vs. FBS, 2021

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.2274th
  Defense+0.0978th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense45.6%72nd
  Defense41.3%59th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.1817th
  Defense+1.3519th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.2076th
  Defense+0.0857th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.4193rd
  Defense+0.1474th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense49.3%57th
  Defense48.0%45th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense35.5%84th
  Defense27.8%78th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.0041st
  Defense2.9460th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense12.3%91st
  Defense17.5%55th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense10.4%99th
  Defense17.1%58th

Percentiles among the 130 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2021

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Army allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   GAST
2. W
   WKU
3. W
   CONN
4. W
   M-OH
5. L
   BALL
6. L
   WIS
7. L
   WAKE
8. W
   AF
9. W
   BUCK
10. W
    MASS
11. W
    LIB
12. L
    NAVY
13. W
    MIZ

Bars above the line: better than expected for Army.

Players, 2021

1. Jakobi BuchananRB113 plays · +0.270 pts/play · 50th of 387 RBs
   0.57WAR0.46 to 0.67
2. Tyhier TylerQB116 plays · +0.238 pts/play · 127th of 219 QBs
   0.52WAR0.13 to 0.86
3. Christian AndersonQB124 plays · +0.204 pts/play · 132nd of 219 QBs
   0.47WAR0.16 to 0.80
4. Tyrell RobinsonRB68 plays · +0.188 pts/play · 193rd of 387 RBs
   0.24WAR0.18 to 0.30
5. Anthony AdkinsRB58 plays · +0.171 pts/play · 225th of 387 RBs
   0.19WAR0.12 to 0.25
6. Isaiah AlstonWR23 plays · +0.170 pts/play · 299th of 474 WRs
   0.07WAR0.05 to 0.09
7. Jabari LawsQB34 plays · +0.089 pts/play · 204th of 219 QBs
   0.06WAR−0.03 to 0.13
8. Brandon WaltersRB9 plays · +0.127 pts/play · 330th of 387 RBs
   0.02WAR0.01 to 0.03

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Army's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2021

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  112112129th of 130Roster talent: 112, 129th of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  132132105th of 130Recruiting: 132, 105th of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  86%86%36th of 128Returning production: 86%, 36th of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +4.7+4.763rd of 130SP+ rating: +4.7, 63rd of 130 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2021

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Army's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 4 clear-cut ones account for 0.17 of the 0.23 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs NAVYQ3 7:36 4th & 9 at NAVY 26, up 1Punted; the numbers favored a field goal−9.2 pts
2. vs MIZQ4 5:47 4th & 3 at MIZ 41, up 5Punted; the numbers favored going for it−3.1 pts
3. vs NAVYQ3 0:06 4th & 9 at NAVY 30, up 1Punted; the numbers favored a field goal−3.0 pts
4. at BALLQ3 8:09 4th & 6 at BALL 38, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.6 pts
5. vs WAKEQ4 14:53 4th & 9 at WAKE 21, down 14Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−1.0 pts
6. at BALLQ3 4:54 4th & 7 at BALL 41, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
7. vs NAVYQ2 11:09 4th & 3 at NAVY 49, down 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts
8. vs MIZQ4 2:44 4th & 5 at ARMY 45, up 5Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2021

38th of 130 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Army's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   GAST
2. W

   WKU
3. W

   CONN
4. W

   M-OH
5. L

   BALL
6. L

   WIS
7. L

   WAKE
8. W

   AF
9. W

   BUCK
10. W

    MASS
11. W

    LIB
12. L

    NAVY
13. W

    MIZ

What moved it, 2021

Every game starts at Army's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+1.74
• Possession & field position+0.01
• Clock−0.12
• Timeouts+0.14
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.09

Game by game

• GASTW 43-10 at GAST42% → 100%Before kickoff −8 · On the field +58: Scoreboard +58, Clock +2
• WKUW 38-35 vs WKU74% → 95%Before kickoff +24 · On the field +21: Scoreboard +26, Timeouts +1
• CONNW 52-21 vs CONN98% → 100%Before kickoff +48 · On the field +2: Scoreboard +4
• M-OHW 23-10 vs M-OH68% → 98%Before kickoff +18 · On the field +30: Scoreboard +31, Timeouts +2
• BALLL 16-28 at BALL76% → 2%Before kickoff +26 · On the field −74: Scoreboard −49, Timeouts −3
• WISL 14-20 at WIS15% → 4%Before kickoff −35 · On the field −12: Scoreboard −20
• WAKEL 56-70 vs WAKE41% → 2%Before kickoff −9 · On the field −39: Scoreboard −46, Clock −3
• AFW 21-14 at AF43% → 94%Before kickoff −7 · On the field +50: Scoreboard +60, Clock −16
• BUCKW 63-10 vs BUCK100% → 100%Before kickoff +50 · On the field 0: Scoreboard +1
• MASSW 33-17 vs MASS100% → 98%Before kickoff +50 · On the field −2: Scoreboard +3
• LIBW 31-16 at LIB39% → 99%Before kickoff −11 · On the field +60: Scoreboard +54, Clock +3
• NAVYL 13-17 vs NAVY40% → 83%Before kickoff −10 · On the field +44: Scoreboard +23, Clock +1
• MIZW 24-22 vs MIZ67% → 96%Before kickoff +17 · On the field +29: Scoreboard +30, Possession & field position +1

Points of win probability, from Army's side.

Closest call

NAVY 11-17 ARMY (2023) - Army dropped to a 1.3% win probability before pulling it out.