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ARMY

Army 43 at Georgia State 10

GAST
2021 · Week 1 · Sep 4, 2021 · Center Parc Stadium
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Win probability · GAST
modelGAST aheadARMY aheadconfidence bandkey playGAST scoreARMY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 15:00 · Jakobi Buchanan run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 13 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 87Home team on offense−42.2Score differential−23.0Pregame prior+2.0Garbage-time factor−8.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−7.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:59: A.J. Howard Jr. run for 4 yds for a TD, (Cole Talley KICK) — ARMY win probability +8.0 pts (now 53%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:12: Jakobi Buchanan run for 2 yds for a TD, (Cole Talley KICK) — ARMY win probability +18.2 pts (now 74%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:03: Destin Coates run for 16 yds for a TD, (Noel Ruiz KICK) — GAST win probability +5.7 pts (now 39%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:00: Christian Anderson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Cole Talley PAT BLOCKED) — ARMY win probability +10.5 pts (now 83%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 9:33: Christian Anderson pass complete to Tyrell Robinson for 40 yds for a TD (C. Talley Run For Two-point Conversion) — ARMY win probability +12.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
GAST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ARMY made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 8:08GAST 4th & 29 at GAST 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%−0.7
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 0:43GAST 4th & 15 at GAST 20, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.7%−1.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.1%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:20ARMY 4th & 1 at GAST 33, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    52.4%−2.6
    49% to make
    Punt
    51.5%−3.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 1:20ARMY 4th & 6 at ARMY 41, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.6%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:00ARMY 4th & 2 at GAST 2, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    70.8%−3.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    62.5%−11.4
    average punt
  6. Q3 12:06ARMY 4th & 8 at ARMY 40, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.7%−0.9
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.6%
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:41GAST 4th & 2 at GAST 39, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    16.8%−1.1
    average punt
  8. Q4 15:00ARMY 4th & 1 at GAST 16, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    95.5%−0.6
    81% to make
    Punt
    93.6%−2.6
    average punt
  9. Q4 12:07ARMY 4th & 2 at GAST 5, up 23
    Close callKicked a field goal · 97.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.1%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.6%−0.5
    92% to make
    Punt
    94.4%−2.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GAST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1ARMY made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 9:17ARMY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:59ARMY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:12ARMY Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:03GAST Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:00ARMY Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    77.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:33ARMY Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    97.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    97.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:29ARMY Touchdown, up 32 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
GASTDrive 1FUMBLE
4 plays · 15 yds · 1:1358% → 58%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
58.2%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 5 yds to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+10
58.2%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 10 yds to the GeoSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
58.2%
Destin Coates run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 42Similar
Q1 13:47
2ND & 8
OWN 42
-2
58.4%
Destin Coates run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 40 Destin Coates fumbled, recovered by Army Jordan BurrellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 2TD
8 plays · 40 yds · 4:3042% → 44%
Q1 13:47
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
58.1%
Tyhier Tyler run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 38Similar
Q1 13:47
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+5
58.1%
Tyson Riley run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 33Similar
Q1 13:47
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+4
58.1%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:47
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
58.1%
Tyhier Tyler run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 24Similar
Q1 13:47
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+15
58.1%
Anthony Adkins run for 15 yds to the GeoSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
58.1%
Tyhier Tyler run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 4Similar
Q1 13:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
58.1%
Tyhier Tyler run for no gain to the GeoSt 4Similar
Q1 9:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
55.7%
Tyson Riley run for 4 yds for a TD, (Cole Talley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 3PUNT
10 plays · -8 yds · 1:0956% → 55%
Q1 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
56.3%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
56.3%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:17
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+11
56.0%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 11 yds to the GeoSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
56.4%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Cornelius McCoy for 5 yds to the GeoSt 41Similar
Q1 9:17
2ND & 5
OWN 41
-4
56.8%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, Illegal Formation (-4 Yards) to the GeoSt 37Similar
Q1 9:17
3RD & 9
OWN 37
0
56.2%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:17
4TH & 9
OWN 37
-10
56.0%
#39 M.Hayes punt 30 yards to the AWP33 return muffed by #6 C.John at the AWP33, recovered by GSU #10 J.Crawford at the AWP00, returned 0 yards to the AWP00, End of Play. PENALTY GSU Holding enforced 10 yards from the GSU37 to the GSU27. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 9:17
4TH & 19
OWN 27
-10
55.9%
#39 M.Hayes punt 35 yards to the AWP38 return muffed by #21 T.Robinson at the AWP38, recovered by GSU #21 J.Williams at the AWP25, returned 0 yards to the AWP25, End of Play. PENALTY GSU Holding on #56 F.Lewis II enforced 10 yards from the GSU27 to the GSU17. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 8:08
4TH & 29
OWN 17
+6
55.3%
Michael Hayes punt for 45 yds , Tyrell Robinson returns for 6 yds to the Army 44Similar
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
55.0%
ARMY Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Army 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 4TD
10 plays · 61 yds · 6:0945% → 53%
Q1 8:08
1ST & 15
OWN 39
+9
55.4%
Tyhier Tyler run for 9 yds to the Army 48Similar
Q1 8:08
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+4
55.0%
Tyson Riley run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 48Similar
Q1 8:08
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+2
55.0%
Tyson Riley run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
54.9%
Tyrell Robinson run for no gain to the GeoSt 46Similar
Q1 8:08
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+26
54.9%
Tyhier Tyler pass complete to Sean Eckert for 26 yds to the GeoSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
54.8%
Tyhier Tyler run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 15Similar
Q1 8:08
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+5
54.8%
Tyhier Tyler run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
54.8%
Tyhier Tyler run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 5Similar
Q1 8:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
54.8%
Anthony Adkins run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 4Similar
Q1 1:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
46.8%
A.J. Howard Jr. run for 4 yds for a TD, (Cole Talley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:1648% → 47%
Q1 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
48.1%
Marcus Carroll run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q1 1:59
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
48.2%
Cornelious Brown IV pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:59
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
47.8%
Cornelious Brown IV sacked by Andre Carter II for 0 yards to the GeoSt 20Similar
Q1 0:43
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+12
46.7%
Michael Hayes punt for 45 yds , Tyrell Robinson returns for 12 yds to the Army 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 6TD
13 plays · 53 yds · 6:4855% → 74%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
44.9%
Christian Anderson run for no gain to the Army 47 Christian Anderson fumbled, recovered by Army Anthony AdkinsSimilar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+1
44.3%
Anthony Adkins run for 1 yd to the Army 48Similar
Q2 14:20
3RD & 9
OWN 48
+10
44.6%
Christian Anderson run for 10 yds to the GeoSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
44.3%
Cade Barnard run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 40Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+5
44.3%
Christian Anderson run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 35Similar
Q2 14:20
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+2
44.5%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 33Similar
Q2 14:20
4TH & 1
OPP 33
+3
45.1%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+10
44.3%
Cade Barnard run for 10 yds to the GeoSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
44.2%
Tyson Riley run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 13Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+5
44.2%
Tyson Riley run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
44.2%
Christian Anderson run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 4Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
44.2%
Christian Anderson run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 2Similar
Q2 8:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
25.9%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 2 yds for a TD, (Cole Talley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 7TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:0930% → 39%
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
30.3%
Destin Coates run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 32Similar
Q2 8:12
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
30.9%
Destin Coates run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q2 8:12
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
31.0%
Destin Coates run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
31.0%
Destin Coates run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 37Similar
Q2 8:12
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+7
30.6%
Jamyest Williams run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 44Similar
Q2 8:12
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+2
31.7%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Roger Carter for 2 yds to the GeoSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+16
32.0%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 16 yds to the Army 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
32.2%
Destin Coates run for 9 yds to the Army 29Similar
Q2 8:12
2ND & 1
OPP 29
-5
32.8%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Army 34Similar
Q2 8:12
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+18
32.8%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 18 yds to the Army 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
38.5%
Destin Coates run for 16 yds for a TD, (Noel Ruiz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 2:4365% → 68%
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
35.4%
Tyrell Robinson run for 9 yds to the Army 34Similar
Q2 4:03
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
35.0%
Anthony Adkins run for 3 yds to the Army 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
34.9%
Tyrell Robinson run for 3 yds to the Army 40Similar
Q2 4:03
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+3
34.2%
Christian Anderson run for 3 yds to the Army 43Similar
Q2 1:28
3RD & 4
OWN 43
-2
30.7%
Christian Anderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Army 41Similar
Q2 1:20
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
31.7%
Zach Harding punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Terrance Dixon at the GeoSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 9INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
31.8%
Cornelious Brown IV pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 10DOWNS TD
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1671% → 83%
Q2 1:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
29.5%
Anthony Adkins run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 6Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
29.1%
Anthony Adkins run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 2Similar
Q2 0:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
27.1%
Christian Anderson run for no gain to the GeoSt 2Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
16.6%
Christian Anderson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Cole Talley PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 2:5482% → 85%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
17.7%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 3 yds to the Army 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+10
17.6%
Christian Anderson run for 10 yds to the Army 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
16.9%
Anthony Adkins run for 3 yds to the Army 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 41
-1
16.9%
Christian Anderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 40Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 40
0
17.5%
Christian Anderson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:06
4TH & 8
OWN 40
0
14.9%
Zach Harding punt for 60 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 12DOWNS
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:2520% → 17%
Q3 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
19.6%
Destin Coates run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 24Similar
Q3 12:06
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+7
19.7%
Jamyest Williams run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
19.9%
Jamyest Williams run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 32Similar
Q3 12:06
2ND & 9
OWN 32
-8
19.7%
Cornelious Brown IV run for a loss of 8 yards to the GeoSt 24Similar
Q3 12:06
3RD & 17
OWN 24
+15
19.2%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Roger Carter for 15 yds to the GeoSt 39Similar
Q3 9:41
4TH & 2
OWN 39
+1
17.3%
Destin Coates run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 13TD
1 play · 40 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q3 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
4.6%
Christian Anderson pass complete to Tyrell Robinson for 40 yds for a TD (C. Talley Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 14FG
1 play · 60 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q3 5:09
4TH & 11
OPP 15
+33
7.9%
Noel Ruiz 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 15FG
6 plays · 60 yds · 2:5397% → 99%
Q3 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+2
3.3%
Cade Barnard run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 16Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+3
3.8%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
3.2%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 8Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+2
3.2%
Anthony Adkins run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 6Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 6
+1
3.3%
Christian Anderson run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 5Similar
Q4 12:07
4TH & 2
OPP 5
+22
1.0%
Cole Talley 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 16PUNT
1 play · -6 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 10:54
4TH & 16
OWN 19
+3
0.5%
Michael Hayes punt for 48 yds , Tyrell Robinson returns for 3 yds to the Army 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 17TD
1 play · 64 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 5:29
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+32
0.2%
Jemel Jones pass complete to Braheam Murphy for 32 yds for a TD (Cole Talley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 18PUNT
1 play · 1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 3:29
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
0.1%
Michael Hayes punt for 46 yds, downed at the Army 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 19END OF GAME
1 play · 13 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OWN 37
+4
0.1%
Wilson Catoe run for 4 yds to the Army 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:12
Jakobi Buchanan run for 2 yds for a TD, (Cole Talley KICK)
-18.2
TD · Q3 9:33
Christian Anderson pass complete to Tyrell Robinson for 40 yds for a TD (C. Talley Run For Two-point Conversion)
-12.7
TD · Q2 0:00
Christian Anderson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Cole Talley PAT BLOCKED)
-10.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com