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Win probability · ARMY
modelARMY aheadCONN aheadconfidence bandkey playARMY scoreCONN score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 15:00 · Jemel Jones run for 4 yds to the UConn 32
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 11:14: Christian Anderson run for 2 yds for a TD (Cole Talley KICK) — CONN win probability +0.1 pts (now 3%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
- TD · Q1 5:41: Christian Anderson pass complete to Isaiah Alston for 39 yds for a TD (Cole Talley KICK) — ARMY win probability +0.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
- TD · Q2 14:12: Christian Anderson run for 1 yd for a TD (Cole Talley KICK) — ARMY win probability +0.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
- TD · Q2 11:40: Tyrell Robinson run for 70 yds for a TD (Cole Talley KICK) — ARMY win probability +0.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:16: Anthony Adkins run for 1 yd for a TD (Quinn Maretzki KICK) — ARMY win probability +0.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ARMY made the numbers' call on 3 of 4CONN made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
- Q1 15:00CONN 4th & 4 at CONN 25, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snapGo for it2.3%−<0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.3%average punt
- Q1 11:14CONN 4th & 4 at ARMY 49, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.7%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt2.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 8:12ARMY 4th & 1 at CONN 40, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call97.0%70% to convertField goal96.8%−0.234% to makePunt96.8%−0.2average punt
- Q1 5:41CONN 4th & 17 at CONN 18, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.8% before the snapGo for it2.7%−0.213% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.9%average punt
- Q2 14:12CONN 4th & 23 at CONN 28, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snapGo for it1.9%−0.37% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.2%average punt
- Q2 9:25CONN 4th & 8 at ARMY 45, down 35Close callWent for it · 0.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.7%−<0.134% to convertField goal0.6%−0.225% to makePunt0.8%average punt
- Q3 15:00ARMY 4th & 5 at CONN 36, up 42Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.7%42% to convertField goal99.6%−0.142% to makePunt99.6%−0.1average punt
- Q3 2:12ARMY 4th & 1 at ARMY 34, up 35Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt99.8%−0.1average punt
- Q4 5:55ARMY 4th & 4 at CONN 11, up 35Close callKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%45% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%−<0.187% to makePunt99.5%−0.4average punt
- Q4 1:09CONN 4th & 4 at ARMY 4, down 38Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%40% to convertField goal0.0%−<0.193% to makePunt0.0%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARMY made the numbers' call on 7 of 7CONN made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
- Q1 11:14ARMY Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.4%97% to makeGo for two97.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:41ARMY Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.1%97% to makeGo for two97.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:12ARMY Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.1%97% to makeGo for two98.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:40ARMY Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.1%97% to makeGo for two99.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:25ARMY Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.3%97% to makeGo for two99.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:16ARMY Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:07CONN Touchdown, down 36 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.4%97% to makeGo for two0.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:30ARMY Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 1:09CONN Touchdown, down 32 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call0.1%−<0.197% to makeGo for two0.1%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCONNDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
97.8%
Tyler Phommachanh pass complete to Kevens Clercius for 4 yds to the UConn 23Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 26
-1
97.8%
Tyler Phommachanh pass complete to Keelan Marion for a loss of 1 yard to the UConn 25Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 25
+38
97.8%
Joe McFadden punt for 38 yds , Tyrell Robinson returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 2TD4 plays · 64 yds · 1:5698% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 3DOWNS9 plays · 28 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 11:14
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+14
97.5%
Nathan Carter run for 14 yds to the UConn 45 Nathan Carter fumbled, forced by Cedrick Cunningham Jr., recovered by UConn Christian Haynes for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
97.4%
Tyler Phommachanh pass complete to Jay Rose for 4 yds to the UConn 49Similar
Q1 11:14
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+2
97.4%
Tyler Phommachanh pass complete to Nathan Carter for 2 yds to the Army 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 4TD5 plays · 49 yds · 2:3197% → 98%
Q1 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
97.5%
Christian Anderson pass complete to Isaiah Alston for 39 yds for a TD (Cole Talley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 5PUNT5 plays · -7 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 5:41
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-9
97.2%
Tyler Phommachanh sacked by Arik Smith and Nathaniel Smith for a loss of 9 yards to the UConn 17Similar
Q1 5:41
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+1
97.3%
Tyler Phommachanh pass complete to Kevens Clercius for 1 yd to the UConn 18Similar
Q1 5:41
4TH & 17
OWN 18
+15
97.3%
Joe McFadden punt for 37 yds , Tyrell Robinson returns for 15 yds to the UConn 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 6TD8 plays · 40 yds · 4:2797% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 7PUNT7 plays · 3 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
97.9%
Tyler Phommachanh pass complete to Keelan Marion for 16 yds to the UConn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
97.9%
Tyler Phommachanh pass incomplete to Kevens Clercius, broken up by Isaiah MorrisSimilar
Q2 14:12
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-13
97.9%
Heron Maurisseau run for 2 yds to the UConn 43 CONNECTICUT Penalty, illegal block (Christopher Fortin) to the UConn 28Similar
Q2 14:12
3RD & 23
OWN 28
0
98.0%
Tyler Phommachanh pass incomplete to Kevens Clercius, broken up by Isaiah MorrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 8TD2 plays · 82 yds · 0:5198% → 99%
CONNDrive 9INT3 plays · 2 yds · 0:001% → 1%
ARMYDrive 10TD3 plays · 33 yds · 1:2699% → 99%
Q2 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+31
99.0%
Christian Anderson pass complete to Joshua Lingenfelter for 31 yds to the UConn 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 11DOWNS10 plays · 37 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 9:25
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
99.3%
Tyler Phommachanh pass incomplete to Aaron Turner, broken up by Cedrick Cunningham Jr.Similar
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-2
99.2%
Tyler Phommachanh sacked by Nathaniel Smith for a loss of 2 yards to the UConn 32Similar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 12
OWN 32
+21
99.3%
Tyler Phommachanh pass complete to Nathan Carter for 21 yds to the Army 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 12TD10 plays · 55 yds · 5:4999% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 13END OF HALF2 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 14DOWNS7 plays · 43 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+37
99.7%
Jemel Jones pass complete to Ryan Jackovic for 37 yds to the UConn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 15TD4 plays · 68 yds · 1:200% → 0%
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
99.7%
Tyler Phommachanh pass complete to Jay Rose for 8 yds to the Army 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 16TD14 plays · 75 yds · 7:37100% → 100%
Q3 10:07
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+5
99.8%
Jemel Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the UConn 11 for a 1ST down CONNECTICUT Penalty, personal foul (Kevon Jones) to the UConn 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 18FG19 plays · 64 yds · 11:17100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 19TD13 plays · 88 yds · 4:460% → 0%
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
100.0%
Tyler Phommachanh pass incomplete to Kevens Clercius, broken up by Jimmy CiarloSimilar
Q4 5:55
3RD & 3
OWN 19
+50
100.0%
Tyler Phommachanh pass complete to Aaron Turner for 50 yds to the Army 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-1
99.9%
Tyler Phommachanh pass complete to Aaron Turner for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 32Similar
Q4 2:58
4TH & 3
OPP 24
+15
100.0%
Phommachanh, Ty pass incomplete to Turner, Aaron, PENALTY ARMY pass interference (HOWARD, A.J.) 15 yards to the ARMY9, 1ST DOWN UCONN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
100.0%
Tyler Phommachanh pass complete to Brandon Niemenski for 5 yds to the Army 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 14:12
Christian Anderson run for 1 yd for a TD (Cole Talley KICK)
+0.9
TD · Q2 11:40
Tyrell Robinson run for 70 yds for a TD (Cole Talley KICK)
+0.9
TD · Q1 5:41
Christian Anderson pass complete to Isaiah Alston for 39 yds for a TD (Cole Talley KICK)
+0.3