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Win probability · ARMY
modelARMY aheadBUCK aheadconfidence bandkey playARMY scoreBUCK score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:54 · BUCKNELL Penalty, delay of game (Sterling Deary) to the Buckn 26
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 0:15: Tyhier Tyler run for 17 yds for a TD (Cole Talley KICK) — ARMY win probability +0.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
- TD · Q2 12:42: Anthony Adkins run for 4 yds for a TD (Cole Talley KICK) — ARMY win probability +0.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:38: Jabari Laws pass complete to Ay'Juan Marshall for 22 yds for a TD (Quinn Maretzki KICK) — ARMY win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
- TD · Q3 6:49: Markens Pierre run for 4 yds for a TD (Quinn Maretzki KICK) — ARMY win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ARMY made the numbers' call on 2 of 2BUCK made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
- Q1 11:44BUCK 4th & 7 at BUCK 29, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.5%−<0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%average punt
- Q1 8:20BUCK 4th & 8 at BUCK 27, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.5%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.6%average punt
- Q1 6:33ARMY 4th & 8 at ARMY 27, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.4% before the snapGo for it99.4%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.5%average punt
- Q2 15:00BUCK 4th & 6 at BUCK 24, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.5%−0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.6%average punt
- Q2 11:14BUCK 4th & 10 at BUCK 45, down 28Close callWent for it · 0.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.3%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.3%average punt
- Q2 5:13BUCK 4th & 10 at ARMY 48, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 14:54ARMY 4th & 3 at BUCK 10, up 42Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.8%49% to convertField goal99.8%−<0.188% to makePunt99.3%−0.5average punt
- Q3 2:55BUCK 4th & 8 at ARMY 8, down 42Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.126% to convertField goalTheir call0.1%90% to makePunt-0.4%−0.5average punt
- Q4 9:32BUCK 4th & 8 at BUCK 29, down 46Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARMY made the numbers' call on 9 of 9BUCK made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 11:51ARMY Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 8:20ARMY Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:15ARMY Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:42ARMY Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:05ARMY Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:38ARMY Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:49ARMY Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:06BUCK Touchdown, down 43 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.2%97% to makeGo for two0.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:40ARMY Touchdown, up 45 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 3:59ARMY Touchdown, up 52 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartBUCKDrive 1INT6 plays · 18 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.6%
Ethan Grady pass complete to Mason Muir for 7 yds to the Buckn 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+8
99.6%
Ethan Grady pass complete to Christian Spugnardi for 8 yds to the Buckn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 43
-17
99.6%
Ethan Grady pass intercepted Andre Carter II return for 17 yds to the Buckn 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 2TD3 plays · 31 yds · 1:08100% → 100%
BUCKDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-11
99.5%
Ethan Grady sacked by Andre Carter II for a loss of 11 yards to the Buckn 15Similar
Q1 11:44
2ND & 21
OWN 15
+14
99.5%
Ethan Grady pass complete to Adam Barakat for 14 yds to the Buckn 29Similar
Q1 11:44
3RD & 7
OWN 29
0
99.5%
Ethan Grady pass incomplete to Adam Barakat, broken up by Jabari MooreSimilar
Q1 11:44
4TH & 7
OWN 29
+55
99.5%
Ruben Anderson punt for 38 yds , Tyrell Robinson returns for 55 yds to the Buckn 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 4TD3 plays · 12 yds · 1:28100% → 100%
BUCKDrive 5PUNT6 plays · 2 yds · 0:001% → 1%
ARMYDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q1 6:33
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
99.4%
Christian Anderson run for no gain to the Army 28 Christian Anderson fumbled, recovered by Army Christian AndersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUCKDrive 7FUMBLE3 plays · 29 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+13
99.3%
Ethan Grady pass complete to Adam Barakat for 13 yds to the Buckn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
99.3%
Ethan Grady pass complete to Connor Holmes for 15 yds to the Army 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
99.3%
Rushawn Baker run for 5 yds to the Army 39 Rushawn Baker fumbled, forced by Malkelm Morrison, recovered by Army Cameron JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 8TD5 plays · 61 yds · 2:5099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUCKDrive 9PUNT6 plays · 4 yds · 0:081% → 1%
Q1 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
99.4%
Ethan Grady pass incomplete to Mason Muir, broken up by Malkelm MorrisonSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+5
99.4%
Ethan Grady pass complete to Christian Spugnardi for 5 yds to the Buckn 24Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 24
+26
99.4%
Ruben Anderson punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Buckn 32 , Tyrell Robinson returns for 26 yds to the Buckn 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 10TD4 plays · 32 yds · 1:24100% → 100%
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+15
99.5%
ANDERSON, C. pass incomplete to ALSTON, Isaiah, PENALTY BUCKNELL pass interference (Robinson, Ethan) 15 yards to the BUCKNELL17, 1ST DOWN ARMY, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUCKDrive 11DOWNS9 plays · 20 yds · 1:280% → 0%
Q2 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.7%
Ethan Grady pass complete to Christian Spugnardi for 7 yds to the Buckn 32Similar
Q2 12:42
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+13
99.7%
Ethan Grady pass complete to Adam Barakat for 13 yds to the Buckn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:14
4TH & 10
OWN 45
0
99.7%
Ruben Anderson pass incomplete to Quentin Lemon, broken up by Max DiDomenicoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 12TD4 plays · 45 yds · 1:55100% → 100%
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+30
99.7%
Jabari Laws pass complete to Isaiah Alston for 30 yds to the Buckn 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUCKDrive 13PUNT10 plays · 22 yds · 3:500% → 0%
Q2 9:03
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+8
99.8%
Ethan Grady pass complete to Marques Owens for 8 yds to the Buckn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
99.8%
Ethan Grady pass complete to Christian Spugnardi for 5 yds to the Buckn 47Similar
Q2 9:03
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+5
99.8%
Ethan Grady pass complete to Damian Harris for 5 yds to the Army 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:03
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-2
99.8%
Ethan Grady pass complete to Jared Cooper for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 14TD9 plays · 67 yds · 3:25100% → 100%
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-10
99.8%
MARSHALL, A. rush for 10 yards to the BUCKNELL46 (Smith, Alex Jr), PENALTY ARMY holding (HOWARD, A.J.) 10 yards to the ARMY34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:03
1ST & 20
OWN 34
+6
99.8%
Jabari Laws pass complete to Braheam Murphy for 6 yds to the Army 40Similar
Q2 5:03
2ND & 14
OWN 40
+15
99.8%
LAWS, Jabari pass incomplete to WALTERS, B., PENALTY BUCKNELL roughing passer (Rooney, Cade) 15 yards to the BUCKNELL45, 1ST DOWN ARMY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
99.9%
Jabari Laws pass complete to Ay'Juan Marshall for 22 yds for a TD (Quinn Maretzki KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUCKDrive 15END OF HALF4 plays · 12 yds · 0:000% → 0%
ARMYDrive 16TD16 plays · 80 yds · 8:05100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUCKDrive 17TD7 plays · 65 yds · 2:430% → 0%
Q3 6:49
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+20
99.9%
Ethan Grady pass complete to Marques Owens for 20 yds to the Army 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+20
99.9%
Ethan Grady pass complete to Christian Spugnardi for 5 yds to the Army 37 for a 1ST down ARMY Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Army 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUCKDrive 19FG4 plays · 2 yds · 0:590% → 0%
Q3 3:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
99.9%
Ethan Grady pass incomplete to Mason Muir, broken up by Isaiah MorrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 20TD16 plays · 97 yds · 8:11100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUCKDrive 21PUNT6 plays · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
ARMYDrive 22TD7 plays · 65 yds · 3:51100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUCKDrive 23END OF GAME9 plays · 1 yds · 2:050% → 0%
Q4 3:59
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
100.0%
Ethan Grady pass complete to Adam Barakat for 4 yds to the Buckn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
100.0%
Ethan Grady pass incomplete to Marques Owens, broken up by Cole MabrySimilar
Q4 1:54
3RD & 5
OWN 41
-10
100.0%
Ethan Grady sacked by Cole Mabry for a loss of 10 yards to the Buckn 31Similar
Q4 1:54
4TH & 15
OWN 31
-5
100.0%
BUCKNELL Penalty, delay of game (Sterling Deary) to the Buckn 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 12:42
Anthony Adkins run for 4 yds for a TD (Cole Talley KICK)
+0.2
TD · Q1 0:15
Tyhier Tyler run for 17 yds for a TD (Cole Talley KICK)
+0.1
TD · Q2 1:38
Jabari Laws pass complete to Ay'Juan Marshall for 22 yds for a TD (Quinn Maretzki KICK)
+0.1