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NAVY

Navy 17 at Army 13

ARMY
2021 · Week 15 · Dec 11, 2021 · MetLife Stadium
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Win probability · ARMY
modelARMY aheadNAVY aheadconfidence bandkey playARMY scoreNAVY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:36 · Zach Harding punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Chance Warren at the Navy 36
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+21.5+10.80−10.8−21.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 86Pregame prior−3.9Home team on offense+3.6Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7Score differential+0.4Blowout margin−1.1
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 0:11: Cole Talley 32 yd FG GOOD — NAVY win probability +6.0 pts (now 65%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00: Cole Talley kickoff for 54 yds , Maquel Haywood return for 15 yds to the Navy 26 — ARMY win probability +12.2 pts (now 42%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  3. TD · Q3 9:02: Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK) — ARMY win probability +19.1 pts (now 55%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. FG · Q4 6:10: Bijan Nichols 43 yd FG GOOD — ARMY win probability +15.6 pts (now 81%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:25: TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 45 — NAVY win probability +11.4 pts (now 22%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARMY made the numbers' call on 3 of 6NAVY made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q2 13:11NAVY 4th & 4 at ARMY 21, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.4 ptsPunted · 62.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.5%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    62.3%−0.2
    74% to make
    PuntTheir call
    59.1%−3.4
    average punt
  2. Q2 11:09ARMY 4th & 3 at NAVY 49, down 3
    Close callPunted · 39.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.1%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q2 8:29NAVY 4th & 3 at ARMY 8, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 5.5 ptsPunted · 62.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.3%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    61.5%−0.8
    90% to make
    PuntTheir call
    56.8%−5.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:58ARMY 4th & 22 at NAVY 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.4%−1.5
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    36.7%−0.2
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    36.9%
    average punt
  5. Q3 9:50NAVY 4th & 4 at NAVY 28, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.5%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    67.4%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q3 7:36ARMY 4th & 9 at NAVY 26, up 1
    Numbers favored field goal by 9.2 ptsPunted · 53.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.7%−1.3
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    54.1%
    64% to make
    PuntTheir call
    44.9%−9.2
    average punt
  7. Q3 2:35NAVY 4th & 9 at NAVY 49, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.4%−1.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.7%
    average punt
  8. Q3 0:06ARMY 4th & 9 at NAVY 30, up 1
    Numbers favored field goal by 3.0 ptsPunted · 57.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.2%−1.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    57.4%
    56% to make
    PuntTheir call
    54.4%−3.0
    average punt
  9. Q4 13:45NAVY 4th & 1 at ARMY 34, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    40.7%−6.0
    47% to make
    Punt
    38.5%−8.2
    average punt
  10. Q4 3:19ARMY 4th & 8 at NAVY 49, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.9%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.2%
    average punt
  11. Q4 2:56NAVY 4th & 6 at ARMY 20, down 4
    Numbers favored field goal by 14.8 ptsPunted · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.2%−3.7
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    28.0%
    75% to make
    PuntTheir call
    13.1%−14.8
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:27ARMY 4th & 3 at ARMY 48, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    87.9%−1.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARMY made the numbers' call on 2 of 2NAVY made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 13:00NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:22ARMY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:02ARMY Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARMYDrive 1TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:5040% → 40%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
39.7%
Tyrell Robinson run for 3 yds to the Army 28Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+14
39.9%
Christian Anderson pass complete to Cole Caterbone for 14 yds to the Army 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
40.2%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 2 yds to the Army 44Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+56
39.8%
Christian Anderson run for 56 yds for a TD (Cole Talley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2TD
12 plays · 83 yds · 5:2861% → 58%
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
39.3%
Carlinos Acie run for 1 yd to the Navy 18Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+13
39.3%
Carlinos Acie run for 13 yds to the Navy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+10
39.2%
Xavier Arline run for 10 yds to the Navy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
39.1%
Carlinos Acie run for 1 yd to the Navy 42Similar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+18
39.0%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Mark Walker for 18 yds to the Army 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
39.0%
Tai Lavatai run for 3 yds to the Army 37Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+2
39.1%
Isaac Ruoss run for 2 yds to the Army 35Similar
Q1 8:50
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+27
39.1%
Jayden Umbarger run for 27 yds to the Army 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:44
1ST & 8
OWN 8
0
39.1%
Maquel Haywood run for no gain to the Army 8Similar
Q1 7:29
2ND & 8
OWN 8
0
39.1%
Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Mychal CooperSimilar
Q1 7:22
3RD & 8
OWN 8
+8
42.4%
Tai Lavatai run for 8 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 3FG
15 plays · 61 yds · 7:0243% → 42%
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
43.1%
Christian Anderson pass incomplete to Brandon Walters, broken up by Michael McMorrisSimilar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+35
43.2%
Christian Anderson pass complete to Isaiah Alston for 35 yds to the Navy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
42.9%
Tyrell Robinson run for 1 yd to the Navy 39Similar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+3
42.9%
Tyhier Tyler run for 3 yds to the Navy 36Similar
Q1 5:10
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+7
43.1%
Tyrell Robinson run for 7 yds to the Navy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
43.5%
Christian Anderson run for 2 yds to the Navy 27Similar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-1
43.7%
Anthony Adkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 28Similar
Q1 3:15
3RD & 9
OWN 28
+12
43.3%
Christian Anderson pass complete to Cade Barnard for 12 yds to the Navy 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
44.1%
Anthony Adkins run for 3 yds to the Navy 13Similar
Q1 2:15
2ND & 7
OWN 13
0
44.3%
Tyhier Tyler run for no gain to the Navy 13Similar
Q1 1:19
3RD & 7
OWN 13
-5
44.1%
ARMY Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Navy 18Similar
Q1 0:49
3RD & 12
OWN 18
+4
44.3%
Tyrell Robinson run for 4 yds to the Navy 14Similar
Q1 0:13
4TH & 8
OWN 14
+31
41.8%
Cole Talley 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 1:5759% → 57%
Q1 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
40.9%
Carlinos Acie run for 1 yd to the Navy 16Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 16
-4
40.4%
Tai Lavatai sacked by Nolan Cockrill for a loss of 4 yards to the Navy 12Similar
Q2 14:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
+9
41.3%
Carlinos Acie run for 9 yds to the Navy 21Similar
Q2 13:11
4TH & 4
OPP 21
+11
43.0%
Riley Riethman punt for 48 yds , Tyrell Robinson returns for 11 yds to the Army 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:5646% → 46%
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
46.0%
Tyhier Tyler run for 2 yds to the Army 44Similar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+1
46.1%
Tyhier Tyler run for 1 yd to the Army 45Similar
Q2 11:50
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+4
46.1%
Christian Anderson run for 4 yds to the Army 49Similar
Q2 11:09
4TH & 3
OPP 49
0
45.5%
Zach Harding punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Navy 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:3158% → 57%
Q2 11:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+3
42.1%
James Harris II run for 3 yds to the Navy 4Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
42.2%
Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds to the Navy 6Similar
Q2 9:20
3RD & 5
OPP 6
+2
42.4%
Maquel Haywood run for 2 yds to the Navy 8Similar
Q2 8:29
4TH & 3
OPP 8
-2
43.5%
Riley Riethman punt for 38 yds , Cameron Jones returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -12 yds · 1:3147% → 43%
Q2 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
46.6%
ARMY Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Army 47Similar
Q2 8:26
1ST & 15
OPP 47
0
45.6%
Christian Anderson pass incomplete to Isaiah AlstonSimilar
Q2 8:20
2ND & 15
OPP 47
-4
45.6%
Christian Anderson sacked by Nicholas Straw for a loss of 4 yards to the Army 43Similar
Q2 7:40
3RD & 19
OPP 43
-3
43.9%
Christian Anderson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Army 40Similar
Q2 6:58
4TH & 22
OPP 40
+22
43.1%
Zach Harding punt for 48 yds , Chance Warren returns for 22 yds to the Navy 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8MISSED FG
6 plays · 30 yds · 1:5759% → 55%
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+28
41.3%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Mychal Cooper for 28 yds to the Army 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
42.7%
Maquel Haywood run for 6 yds to the Army 32Similar
Q2 5:50
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+1
43.3%
Carlinos Acie run for 1 yd to the Army 31Similar
Q2 5:00
3RD & 3
OWN 31
0
43.9%
Tai Lavatai pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:00
4TH & 3
OWN 31
-5
45.1%
NAVY Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Army 36Similar
Q2 4:53
4TH & 8
OWN 36
+53
45.4%
Bijan Nichols 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 9FG
10 plays · 49 yds · 4:3946% → 35%
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
46.4%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 2 yds to the Army 38Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+23
46.6%
Christian Anderson pass complete to Michael Roberts for 8 yds to the Navy 46 for a 1ST down NAVY Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Navy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
44.8%
Christian Anderson run for 1 yd to the Navy 38Similar
Q2 3:05
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+23
44.6%
Christian Anderson pass complete to Tyrell Robinson for 23 yds to the Navy 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
43.2%
Tyhier Tyler run for 2 yds to the Navy 13Similar
Q2 1:35
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+2
42.4%
Tyhier Tyler run for 2 yds to the Navy 11Similar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 6
OWN 11
-4
41.6%
Tyhier Tyler run for a loss of 4 yards to the Navy 15Similar
Q2 0:11
4TH & 10
OWN 15
+32
35.1%
Cole Talley 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-1
30.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 11TD
11 plays · 74 yds · 5:4868% → 45%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
32.3%
Tai Lavatai run for 5 yds to the Navy 31Similar
Q3 14:09
2ND & 5
OPP 31
0
32.1%
Carlinos Acie run for no gain to the Navy 31Similar
Q3 13:50
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+24
32.6%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Maquel Haywood for 24 yds to the Army 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
32.7%
Tai Lavatai run for 3 yds to the Army 42Similar
Q3 12:35
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+8
32.4%
Isaac Ruoss run for 8 yds to the Army 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
33.9%
Carlinos Acie run for 2 yds to the Army 32Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+3
33.7%
Isaac Ruoss run for 3 yds to the Army 29Similar
Q3 10:25
3RD & 5
OWN 29
+1
34.5%
Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd to the Army 28Similar
Q3 9:50
4TH & 4
OWN 28
+26
36.0%
Chance Warren run for 26 yds to the Army 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:02
1ST & 2
OWN 2
+2
55.1%
Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:2460% → 56%
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
60.0%
Tyrell Robinson run for 1 yd to the Army 26Similar
Q3 8:25
2ND & 9
OPP 26
0
60.4%
Anthony Adkins run for no gain to the Army 26Similar
Q3 7:43
3RD & 9
OPP 26
0
59.2%
Christian Anderson pass incomplete to Tyrell RobinsonSimilar
Q3 7:36
4TH & 9
OPP 26
0
56.4%
Zach Harding punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Chance Warren at the Navy 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 4:5549% → 43%
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
50.9%
Isaac Ruoss run for 4 yds to the Navy 40Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+5
50.6%
Tai Lavatai run for 5 yds to the Navy 45Similar
Q3 6:10
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+5
51.2%
Isaac Ruoss run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
50
+1
51.6%
Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd to the Army 49Similar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 9
OWN 49
-7
52.1%
Jayden Umbarger run for a loss of 7 yards to the Navy 44Similar
Q3 4:00
3RD & 16
OPP 44
+12
55.4%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Chance Warren for 12 yds to the Army 44Similar
Q3 3:25
4TH & 4
OWN 44
-5
56.0%
NAVY Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Army 49Similar
Q3 2:35
4TH & 9
OWN 49
0
57.3%
Riley Riethman punt for 30 yds, downed at the Army 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 2:2463% → 59%
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
63.1%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 7 yds to the Army 26Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 3
OPP 26
+3
63.4%
Tyhier Tyler run for 3 yds to the Army 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
63.6%
Tyson Riley run for 2 yds to the Army 31Similar
Q3 0:55
2ND & 8
OPP 31
-1
64.0%
Tyhier Tyler run for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 30Similar
Q3 0:17
3RD & 9
OPP 30
0
62.2%
Christian Anderson pass incomplete to Isaiah AlstonSimilar
Q3 0:06
4TH & 9
OPP 30
0
58.9%
Zach Harding punt for 45 yds , Chance Warren returns for no gain to the Navy 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 15FG
18 plays · 49 yds · 8:5550% → 19%
Q3 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
50.4%
Tai Lavatai run for 6 yds to the Navy 31Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+2
50.5%
Isaac Ruoss run for 2 yds to the Navy 33Similar
Q4 14:30
3RD & 2
OPP 33
+1
52.5%
Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd to the Navy 34Similar
Q4 13:45
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+4
55.2%
Diego Fagot run for 4 yds to the Navy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
52.3%
Carlinos Acie run for 6 yds to the Navy 44Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+3
51.9%
Isaac Ruoss run for 3 yds to the Navy 47Similar
Q4 11:38
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+3
52.6%
Tai Lavatai run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
50
+13
52.8%
Tai Lavatai run for 13 yds to the Army 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
56.6%
Tai Lavatai run for no gain to the Army 37Similar
Q4 9:35
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+6
57.0%
Tai Lavatai run for 6 yds to the Army 31Similar
Q4 9:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+4
58.5%
Isaac Ruoss run for 4 yds to the Army 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
58.0%
Isaac Ruoss run for 2 yds to the Army 25Similar
Q4 7:50
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+1
58.7%
Maquel Haywood run for 1 yd to the Army 24Similar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 7
OWN 24
+3
59.5%
Tai Lavatai run for 3 yds to the Army 21Similar
Q4 6:15
4TH & 4
OWN 21
-5
64.9%
NAVY Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Army 26Similar
Q4 6:10
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+43
80.6%
Bijan Nichols 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 2:4685% → 87%
Q4 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
84.9%
Christian Anderson run for 6 yds to the Army 31Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+3
86.3%
Tyrell Robinson run for 3 yds to the Army 34Similar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+13
86.9%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 13 yds to the Army 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
88.4%
Christian Anderson pass incomplete to Tyrell Robinson, broken up by Eavan GibbonsSimilar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+2
88.6%
Tyrell Robinson run for 2 yds to the Army 49Similar
Q4 3:27
3RD & 8
OPP 49
0
87.9%
Tyrell Robinson pass incomplete to Jabari MooreSimilar
Q4 3:19
4TH & 8
OPP 49
0
86.9%
Zach Harding punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Navy 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 0:2223% → 21%
Q4 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
76.7%
Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds to the Navy 18Similar
Q4 3:12
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+3
74.8%
Tai Lavatai run for 3 yds to the Navy 21Similar
Q4 3:08
3RD & 5
OPP 21
-1
76.3%
Tai Lavatai run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 20Similar
Q4 2:56
4TH & 6
OPP 20
0
78.9%
Riley Riethman punt for 47 yds, downed at the Army 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 18DOWNS
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:2686% → 90%
Q4 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
86.3%
Christian Anderson pass complete to Cole Caterbone for 9 yds to the Army 42Similar
Q4 2:23
2ND & 1
OPP 42
0
87.6%
Christian Anderson pass incomplete to Tyrell RobinsonSimilar
Q4 2:15
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+3
86.6%
Christian Anderson run for 3 yds to the Army 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
87.9%
Christian Anderson pass incomplete to Isaiah AlstonSimilar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
89.7%
Christian Anderson pass incomplete to Ay'Juan Marshall, broken up by Rayuan LaneSimilar
Q4 1:50
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+7
90.3%
Christian Anderson pass complete to Tyrell Robinson for 7 yds to the Navy 48Similar
Q4 1:27
4TH & 3
OWN 48
+2
89.6%
Christian Anderson run for 2 yds to the Navy 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 19END OF 4TH QUARTER
3 plays · -4 yds · 1:0522% → 17%
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
78.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 45Similar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 11
OPP 45
-1
81.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 44Similar
Q4 0:20
3RD & 12
OPP 44
-2
83.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-83.2
TD · Q3 9:02
Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK)
+19.1
FG · Q4 6:10
Bijan Nichols 43 yd FG GOOD
+15.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com