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ARMY

Army 16 at Ball State 28

BALL
2021 · Week 5 · Oct 2, 2021 · Scheumann Stadium
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Win probability · BALL
modelBALL aheadARMY aheadconfidence bandkey playBALL scoreARMY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDSAFETYEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:06 · Zach Harding punt for 50 yds , Justin Hall returns for 7 yds to the BalSt 28
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+29.5+14.80−14.8−29.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 79Pregame prior−13.1Home team on offense+6.2Score differential+1.5Garbage-time factor−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 10:26: Drew Plitt pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 44 yds for a TD, (Jake Chanove KICK) — BALL win probability +2.0 pts (now 30%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 4:48: Carson Steele run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jake Chanove KICK) — BALL win probability +10.2 pts (now 44%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 13:14: Tyhier Tyler run for 4 yds for a TD, (Cole Talley KICK) — ARMY win probability +8.4 pts (now 56%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:37: Tyhier Tyler run for 2 yds for a TD, (Cole Talley KICK) — ARMY win probability +3.4 pts (now 54%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:00: Drew Plitt pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 18 yds for a TD, (Jake Chanove KICK) — BALL win probability +8.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BALL made the numbers' call on 4 of 6ARMY made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 10:34ARMY 4th & 2 at ARMY 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    69.8%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:18ARMY 4th & 18 at ARMY 17, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.7%−1.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.9%
    average punt
  3. Q2 9:56BALL 4th & 11 at BALL 46, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.4%−1.8
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:56ARMY 4th & 1 at BALL 4, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.6%
    65% to convert
    Field goal
    46.7%−2.9
    93% to make
    Punt
    39.3%−10.3
    average punt
  5. Q3 13:06ARMY 4th & 6 at ARMY 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.9%−0.8
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.7%
    average punt
  6. Q3 11:28BALL 4th & 7 at ARMY 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    58.2%−1.0
    40% to make
    Punt
    57.9%−1.3
    average punt
  7. Q3 8:09ARMY 4th & 6 at BALL 38, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 41.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    40.8%−1.6
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    40.8%−1.6
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:56BALL 4th & 8 at BALL 5, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.0%−2.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:54ARMY 4th & 7 at BALL 41, down 7
    Close callPunted · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    35.8%−1.8
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    36.6%−0.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:09BALL 4th & 15 at BALL 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.6%−4.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.5%
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:17BALL 4th & 5 at ARMY 46, up 7
    Close callPunted · 77.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    75.8%−2.9
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    78.2%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:12ARMY 4th & 12 at ARMY 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.5%−3.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:14BALL 4th & 3 at BALL 38, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 81.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.7%−1.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:56ARMY 4th & 4 at BALL 45, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    7.1%−1.5
    25% to make
    Punt
    7.3%−1.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:30ARMY 4th & 2 at BALL 33, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    6.4%−0.8
    49% to make
    Punt
    5.1%−2.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:15ARMY 4th & 2 at BALL 2, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    5.0%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    2.5%−2.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BALL made the numbers' call on 3 of 4ARMY made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 14:48BALL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:26BALL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:48BALL Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:14ARMY Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:37ARMY Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:00BALL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.0%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARMYDrive 1DOWNS
10 plays · 20 yds · 4:1475% → 72%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
24.7%
Tyhier Tyler run for 4 yds to the Army 29Similar
Q1 14:48
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
24.7%
Tyhier Tyler run for 3 yds to the Army 32Similar
Q1 14:48
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
24.7%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 4 yds to the Army 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
24.6%
Tyhier Tyler run for 2 yds to the Army 34Similar
Q1 14:48
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+1
24.7%
Tyrell Robinson run for 1 yd to the Army 33Similar
Q1 14:48
3RD & 13
OWN 33
+11
24.7%
Tyrell Robinson run for 11 yds to the Army 44Similar
Q1 10:34
4TH & 2
OWN 44
+1
27.8%
Tyhier Tyler run for 1 yd to the Army 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 2TD
1 play · 44 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
29.8%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 44 yds for a TD, (Jake Chanove KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 2:0870% → 68%
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
29.9%
Tyhier Tyler run for 5 yds to the Army 30Similar
Q1 10:26
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+15
29.8%
Tyhier Tyler run for 15 yds to the Army 15 Tyhier Tyler fumbled, forced by Clayton Coll, recovered by Army Tyhier TylerSimilar
Q1 10:26
3RD & 20
OWN 15
+2
30.0%
Tyhier Tyler run for 2 yds to the Army 17Similar
Q1 8:18
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
32.5%
Zach Harding punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Justin Hall at the BalSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 4TD
10 plays · 57 yds · 3:3034% → 44%
Q1 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
33.6%
Will Jones run for 3 yds to the BalSt 46Similar
Q1 8:18
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+16
33.6%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 16 yds to the Army 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
33.7%
Drew Plitt run for 8 yds to the Army 30Similar
Q1 8:18
2ND & 2
OPP 30
0
33.8%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Ryan LezonSimilar
Q1 8:18
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+6
33.6%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 6 yds to the Army 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
33.8%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Yo'Heinz TylerSimilar
Q1 8:18
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
33.7%
Drew Plitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:18
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+15
33.6%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 15 yds to the Army 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
33.7%
Drew Plitt run for 7 yds to the Army 2Similar
Q1 4:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
44.0%
Carson Steele run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jake Chanove KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 5TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 6:3457% → 56%
Q1 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
43.1%
Tyhier Tyler run for 8 yds to the Army 33Similar
Q1 4:48
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+2
41.5%
Anthony Adkins run for 2 yds to the Army 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
42.9%
Tyhier Tyler run for 5 yds to the Army 40Similar
Q1 4:48
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+3
42.5%
Tyhier Tyler run for 3 yds to the Army 43Similar
Q1 4:48
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+3
41.5%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 3 yds to the Army 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
42.7%
Tyhier Tyler run for 5 yds to the BalSt 49Similar
Q1 4:48
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+15
42.4%
A.J. Howard Jr. run for 15 yds to the BalSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
52.7%
Braheam Murphy run for 6 yds to the BalSt 40Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 16
OPP 40
+25
54.5%
Braheam Murphy run for 25 yds to the BalSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
52.4%
Braheam Murphy run for 6 yds to the BalSt 9Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 9
+5
52.4%
Tyhier Tyler run for 5 yds to the BalSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
44.1%
Tyhier Tyler run for 4 yds for a TD, (Cole Talley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 6PUNT
10 plays · 21 yds · 3:1848% → 53%
Q2 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
48.2%
Carson Steele run for 2 yds to the BalSt 27Similar
Q2 13:14
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+9
48.2%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 9 yds to the BalSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
48.6%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Jordan Williams for 11 yds to the BalSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
49.3%
Carson Steele run for 1 yd to the BalSt 48Similar
Q2 13:14
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+8
49.2%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 8 yds to the Army 44Similar
Q2 13:14
3RD & 1
OPP 44
-5
49.0%
PENALTY BSU False Start (Todd,Anthony) 5 yards from AWP44 to AWP49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:14
3RD & 6
OPP 49
0
48.7%
Drew Plitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:14
4TH & 6
OPP 49
-5
48.0%
PENALTY BSU False Start (Daw,Jimmy) 5 yards from AWP49 to BSU46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:56
4TH & 11
OWN 46
0
52.5%
Nathan Snyder punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 7TD
17 plays · 80 yds · 8:1949% → 54%
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
51.3%
Tyhier Tyler pass incomplete to Braheam MurphySimilar
Q2 9:56
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+10
51.5%
Anthony Adkins run for 10 yds to the Army 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
51.2%
Tyhier Tyler run for 6 yds to the Army 36Similar
Q2 9:56
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+10
50.4%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 10 yds to the Army 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
50.5%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 9:56
2ND & 6
50
+5
49.8%
Tyhier Tyler run for 5 yds to the BalSt 45Similar
Q2 9:56
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+4
49.6%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 4 yds to the BalSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+15
49.8%
Tyler,Tyhier pass incomplete to Alston,Isaiah PENALTY BSU Pass Interference (Wahee,J.T.) 15 yards from BSU41 to BSU26, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
48.7%
Tyhier Tyler run for 6 yds to the BalSt 20Similar
Q2 9:56
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+2
48.7%
Tyson Riley run for 2 yds to the BalSt 18Similar
Q2 9:56
3RD & 2
OPP 18
+5
49.5%
Tyler,Tyhier rush for 3 yards gain to the BSU15 (Harris,John; Tarango,Joshua) PENALTY BSU Offside (Tarango,Joshua) 5 yards from BSU18 to BSU13, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
48.7%
A.J. Howard Jr. run for no gain to the BalSt 13Similar
Q2 9:56
2ND & 10
OPP 13
-5
48.7%
Tyler,Tyhier rush for 3 yards gain to the BSU10 (Ward,Jordan; Coll,Clayton) PENALTY AWP Illegal Formation 5 yards from BSU13 to BSU18. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:56
2ND & 15
OPP 18
+10
50.0%
Tyrell Robinson run for 10 yds to the BalSt 8Similar
Q2 9:56
3RD & 5
OPP 8
+4
49.6%
Tyhier Tyler run for 4 yds to the BalSt 4Similar
Q2 9:56
4TH & 1
OPP 4
+2
49.7%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 2 yds to the BalSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
46.3%
Tyhier Tyler run for 2 yds for a TD, (Cole Talley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 8END OF HALF
8 plays · 17 yds · 1:3753% → 51%
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
52.5%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 5 yds to the BalSt 30Similar
Q2 1:37
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+11
52.9%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 11 yds to the BalSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
54.3%
Will Jones run for 1 yd to the BalSt 42Similar
Q2 1:37
2ND & 9
OWN 42
-5
53.7%
PENALTY BSU False Start 5 yards from BSU42 to BSU37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 14
OWN 37
-5
52.5%
Drew Plitt sacked by Nathaniel Smith for a loss of 5 yards to the BalSt 32Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 19
OWN 32
+10
51.4%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 10 yds to the BalSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:5448% → 44%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
52.0%
Tyhier Tyler run for 2 yds to the Army 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
51.8%
Tyhier Tyler run for 2 yds to the Army 29Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
52.6%
Jemel Jones run for no gain to the Army 29Similar
Q3 13:06
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+7
55.9%
Zach Harding punt for 50 yds , Justin Hall returns for 7 yds to the BalSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 10DOWNS
6 plays · 27 yds · 1:3856% → 57%
Q3 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
55.5%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 9 yds to the BalSt 37Similar
Q3 13:06
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+23
57.3%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 23 yds to the Army 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
58.2%
Will Jones run for 3 yds to the Army 37Similar
Q3 13:06
2ND & 7
OPP 37
0
58.2%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Yo'Heinz TylerSimilar
Q3 13:06
3RD & 7
OPP 37
0
57.2%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Yo'Heinz TylerSimilar
Q3 11:28
4TH & 7
OPP 37
-8
57.3%
Drew Plitt sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the Army 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 3:1947% → 41%
Q3 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
53.4%
Anthony Adkins run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:28
2ND & 5
50
+3
52.2%
Anthony Adkins run for 3 yds to the BalSt 47Similar
Q3 11:28
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+5
52.6%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 5 yds to the BalSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
52.2%
Tyhier Tyler pass incomplete to Chris CameronSimilar
Q3 11:28
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+5
52.4%
Tyrell Robinson run for 5 yds to the BalSt 37Similar
Q3 11:28
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+1
52.7%
Tyhier Tyler run for 1 yd to the BalSt 38Similar
Q3 8:09
4TH & 6
OPP 38
0
59.2%
Zach Harding punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:1365% → 64%
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
65.1%
Carson Steele run for 2 yds to the BalSt 5Similar
Q3 8:09
2ND & 8
OWN 5
0
64.8%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Carson SteeleSimilar
Q3 8:09
3RD & 8
OWN 5
0
63.8%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
Q3 7:07
4TH & 8
OWN 5
0
64.0%
Snyder,Nathan punt 46 yards to the AWP49 Robinson,Tyrell return 8 yards to the BSU43, out of bounds PENALTY BSU Illegal Formation offsetting AWP Illegal Block in Back offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:56
4TH & 8
OWN 5
+7
64.2%
Nathan Snyder punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BalSt 44 , Tyrell Robinson returns for 7 yds to the BalSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 2:0242% → 36%
Q3 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
58.1%
Tyhier Tyler run for 1 yd to the BalSt 43Similar
Q3 6:56
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+2
58.1%
Braheam Murphy run for 2 yds to the BalSt 41Similar
Q3 6:56
3RD & 7
OPP 41
0
58.6%
Tyhier Tyler run for no gain to the BalSt 41Similar
Q3 4:54
4TH & 7
OPP 41
0
64.3%
Zach Harding punt for 28 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 14PUNT
11 plays · 17 yds · 3:4569% → 74%
Q3 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+11
68.5%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 11 yds to the BalSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
68.9%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Cody RudySimilar
Q3 4:54
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+9
68.6%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 9 yds to the BalSt 33Similar
Q3 4:54
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+2
68.9%
Drew Plitt run for 2 yds to the BalSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
69.3%
Carson Steele run for 2 yds to the BalSt 37Similar
Q3 4:54
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+5
69.9%
Drew Plitt run for 5 yds to the BalSt 32Similar
Q3 4:54
3RD & 13
OWN 32
-5
67.6%
PENALTY BSU False Start (Todd,Anthony) 5 yards from BSU32 to BSU27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:54
3RD & 18
OWN 27
+13
67.2%
Drew Plitt run for 13 yds to the BalSt 40Similar
Q3 4:54
4TH & 5
OWN 40
-5
68.1%
PENALTY BSU Delay Of Game 5 yards from BSU40 to BSU35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:54
4TH & 10
OWN 35
-5
66.8%
PENALTY BSU False Start (Daw,Jimmy) 5 yards from BSU35 to BSU30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:09
4TH & 15
OWN 30
0
73.7%
Lucas Borrow punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Army 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 15INT
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:4731% → 30%
Q3 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
69.1%
A.J. Howard Jr. run for 1 yd to the Army 36Similar
Q3 0:22
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
70.1%
Tyhier Tyler pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0580% → 79%
Q3 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
79.7%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Yo'Heinz TylerSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+4
80.5%
Carson Steele run for 4 yds to the Army 47Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+1
79.9%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Carson Steele for 1 yd to the Army 46Similar
Q4 14:17
4TH & 5
OPP 46
0
79.4%
Lucas Borrow punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Tyrell Robinson at the Army 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 2:0528% → 21%
Q4 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
72.5%
Anthony Adkins run for 3 yds to the Army 18Similar
Q4 14:17
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+8
72.4%
Tyhier Tyler run for 8 yds to the Army 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
72.1%
Tyrell Robinson run for 2 yds to the Army 24Similar
Q4 14:17
2ND & 12
OWN 24
0
72.5%
Tyhier Tyler pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:17
3RD & 12
OWN 24
0
73.8%
Jemel Jones pass incomplete to Brandon WaltersSimilar
Q4 12:12
4TH & 12
OWN 24
0
79.3%
Zach Harding punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Justin Hall at the BalSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:5882% → 84%
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
82.1%
Carson Steele run for 5 yds to the BalSt 36Similar
Q4 12:12
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+3
83.1%
Justin Hall run for 3 yds to the BalSt 39Similar
Q4 12:12
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+1
82.6%
Carson Steele run for 1 yd to the BalSt 38Similar
Q4 10:14
4TH & 3
OWN 38
0
83.8%
Lucas Borrow punt for 51 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 19INT
3 plays · 4 yds · 1:2521% → 19%
Q4 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
79.0%
Jemel Jones run for 3 yds to the Army 14Similar
Q4 10:14
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+1
79.0%
Jemel Jones run for 1 yd to the Army 15Similar
Q4 8:49
3RD & 6
OWN 15
0
81.3%
Jemel Jones pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 20TD
5 plays · 45 yds · 0:4987% → 96%
Q4 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
87.4%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Yo'Heinz TylerSimilar
Q4 8:49
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+27
87.2%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 27 yds to the Army 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
95.7%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 18 yds for a TD, (Jake Chanove KICK)Similar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
95.2%
PENALTY AWP Roughing The Passer (Broughton,Marquel) 15 yards from BSU35 to BSU50. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
50
+15
95.6%
PENALTY AWP Roughing The Kicker (Jacobs,Jaylen) 15 yards from BSU50 to AWP35. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 21DOWNS
17 plays · 77 yds · 4:416% → 4%
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+29
94.0%
Jemel Jones pass complete to Isaiah Alston for 29 yds to the Army 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
93.5%
Jemel Jones run for 3 yds to the BalSt 48Similar
Q4 7:56
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+3
93.4%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 3 yds to the BalSt 45Similar
Q4 7:56
3RD & 4
OPP 45
0
93.6%
Jemel Jones pass incomplete to Brandon WaltersSimilar
Q4 7:56
4TH & 4
OPP 45
+4
93.7%
Jemel Jones pass complete to A.J. Howard Jr. for 4 yds to the BalSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
94.4%
Jemel Jones pass incomplete to Isaiah AlstonSimilar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+7
94.4%
Jemel Jones pass complete to Isaiah Alston for 7 yds to the BalSt 34Similar
Q4 6:30
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+1
94.0%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 1 yd to the BalSt 33Similar
Q4 6:30
4TH & 2
OPP 33
+2
94.5%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 2 yds to the BalSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+21
93.7%
Jemel Jones pass complete to Tyrell Robinson for 21 yds to the BalSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-5
93.4%
PENALTY AWP False Start (Alston,Isaiah) 5 yards from BSU10 to BSU15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 15
+2
93.9%
Jemel Jones run for 2 yds to the BalSt 17Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 17
+15
93.9%
Brandon Walters run for 15 yds to the BalSt 2Similar
Q4 6:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
94.0%
Cade Barnard run for no gain to the BalSt 2Similar
Q4 3:15
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
96.2%
Tyrell Robinson run for 1 yd to the BalSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 22SF
7 plays · -3 yds · 1:0698% → 97%
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
97.7%
Will Jones run for no gain to the BalSt 3Similar
Q4 3:10
2ND & 10
OWN 3
+1
98.1%
Will Jones run for 1 yd to the BalSt 4Similar
Q4 3:07
3RD & 9
OWN 4
+7
98.1%
Will Jones run for 7 yds to the BalSt 11Similar
Q4 3:07
4TH & 2
OWN 11
-5
98.0%
PENALTY BSU Delay Of Game 5 yards from BSU11 to BSU06. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:09
4TH & 7
OWN 6
+6
97.4%
Drew Plitt run for 6 yds for a SAFETY BALL ST Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 23DOWNS
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:332% → 2%
Q4 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
97.8%
Jemel Jones pass incomplete to Isaiah AlstonSimilar
Q4 2:04
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+2
97.8%
Jemel Jones run for 2 yds to the Army 46Similar
Q4 2:04
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+5
97.8%
Jemel Jones pass complete to Michael Roberts for 5 yds to the BalSt 49Similar
Q4 1:31
4TH & 3
OPP 49
0
97.9%
ARMY Penalty, Illegal Formation (Malkelm Morrison) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 24END OF GAME
3 plays · -5 yds · 1:3198% → 98%
Q4 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-2
98.2%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 47Similar
Q4 1:31
2ND & 12
OWN 47
-2
98.1%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 45Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 14
OWN 45
-1
98.3%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 4:48
Carson Steele run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jake Chanove KICK)
+10.2
TD · Q4 8:00
Drew Plitt pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 18 yds for a TD, (Jake Chanove KICK)
+8.5
TD · Q2 13:14
Tyhier Tyler run for 4 yds for a TD, (Cole Talley KICK)
-8.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com