Army

Profile vs. FBS, 2014

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1962nd
  Defense+0.2514th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense44.7%63rd
  Defense49.2%4th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.1328th
  Defense+1.2143rd
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.2186th
  Defense+0.1720th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.028th
  Defense+0.406th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense50.5%76th
  Defense52.9%6th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense28.9%15th
  Defense40.0%6th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.0159th
  Defense3.0628th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense17.4%72nd
  Defense21.5%72nd
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense1.4%90th
  Defense1.5%19th

Percentiles among the 128 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2014

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Army allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   BUF
2. L
   STAN
3. L
   WAKE
4. L
   YALE
5. W
   BALL
6. L
   RICE
7. L
   KENT
8. L
   AF
9. W
   CONN
10. L
    WKU
11. W
    FOR
12. L
    NAVY

Bars above the line: better than expected for Army.

Players, 2014

1. Angel SantiagoQB207 plays · +0.205 pts/play · 120th of 199 QBs
   0.80WAR0.23 to 1.36
2. Larry DixonRB140 plays · +0.165 pts/play · 32nd of 350 RBs
   0.43WAR0.32 to 0.56
3. A.J. SchurrQB22 plays · +0.181 pts/play · 184th of 199 QBs
   0.07WAR0.00 to 0.15
4. Daniel GrochowskiPK11 plays · +0.327 pts/play · 92nd of 114 kickers
   0.07WAR0.03 to 0.10
5. Alex TardieuP34 plays · +0.103 pts/play · 59th of 94 punters
   0.07WAR0.02 to 0.11
6. Matt GiachintaRB35 plays · +0.096 pts/play · 248th of 350 RBs
   0.06WAR0.04 to 0.09
7. Aaron KemperRB6 plays · +0.086 pts/play · 300th of 350 RBs
   0.01WAR0.00 to 0.01
8. Joe WalkerRB7 plays · +0.071 pts/play · 300th of 350 RBs
   0.01WAR0.00 to 0.02

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Army's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2014

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Army's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 4 clear-cut ones account for 0.11 of the 0.18 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at YALEQ4 6:34 4th & 1 at ARMY 10, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−3.8 pts
2. at KENTQ3 14:54 4th & 10 at ARMY 21, down 3Went for it; the numbers favored punting−2.6 pts
3. vs NAVYQ3 4:56 4th & 2 at NAVY 31, down 3Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−2.4 pts
4. at WAKEQ4 14:13 4th & 3 at WAKE 48, up 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.9 pts
5. vs AFQ2 9:16 4th & 1 at ARMY 27, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−1.0 pts
6. vs BALLQ2 15:00 4th & 4 at BALL 37, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts
7. at KENTQ3 4:18 4th & 4 at ARMY 39, down 6Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts
8. vs RICEQ4 6:48 4th & 14 at ARMY 36, down 20Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)−0.5 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2014

102nd of 128 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Army's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   BUF
2. L

   STAN
3. L

   WAKE
4. L

   YALE
5. W

   BALL
6. L

   RICE
7. L

   KENT
8. L

   AF
9. W

   CONN
10. L

    WKU
11. W

    FOR
12. L

    NAVY

What moved it, 2014

Every game starts at Army's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−1.24
• Possession & field position−0.04
• Clock−0.09
• Timeouts+0.27
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.12

Game by game

• BUFW 47-39 vs BUF50% → 98%Before kickoff 0 · On the field +47: Scoreboard +38, Timeouts +2
• STANL 0-35 at STAN3% → 0%Before kickoff −47 · On the field −3: Scoreboard −5
• WAKEL 21-24 at WAKE42% → 12%Before kickoff −8 · On the field −30: Scoreboard −23, Timeouts −2
• YALEL 43-49 at YALE82% → 13%Before kickoff +32 · On the field −69: Scoreboard −43, Timeouts +23
• BALLW 33-24 vs BALL65% → 95%Before kickoff +15 · On the field +31: Scoreboard +30, Possession & field position +1
• RICEL 21-41 vs RICE58% → 0%Before kickoff +8 · On the field −57: Scoreboard −56, Clock −1
• KENTL 17-39 at KENT66% → 0%Before kickoff +16 · On the field −66: Scoreboard −55
• AFL 6-23 vs AF37% → 3%Before kickoff −13 · On the field −35: Scoreboard −43, Clock −1
• CONNW 35-21 vs CONN47% → 98%Before kickoff −3 · On the field +52: Scoreboard +43, Timeouts +1
• WKUL 24-52 at WKU23% → 0%Before kickoff −27 · On the field −23: Scoreboard −25
• FORW 42-31 vs FOR30% → 98%Before kickoff −20 · On the field +67: Scoreboard +44, Timeouts +3
• NAVYL 10-17 vs NAVY17% → 4%Before kickoff −33 · On the field −13: Scoreboard −28, Clock −2

Points of win probability, from Army's side.

Closest call

NAVY 11-17 ARMY (2023) - Army dropped to a 1.3% win probability before pulling it out.