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ARMY

Army 21 at Wake Forest 24

WAKE
2014 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2014 · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · WAKE
modelWAKE aheadARMY aheadconfidence bandkey playWAKE scoreARMY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:03 · Larry Dixon run for 7 yds to the Army 40 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+25.0+12.50−12.5−25.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 31Home team on offense+1.8Pregame prior+6.7Garbage-time factor−0.1Score differential+0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:26: Angel Santiago run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK) — ARMY win probability +8.5 pts (now 46%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:23: Joe Walker pass complete to Xavier Moss for 4 yds for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK) — ARMY win probability +11.2 pts (now 60%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 14:13: Mike Weaver 20 yd FG GOOD — WAKE win probability +6.2 pts (now 46%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. TD · Q4 6:45: John Wolford pass complete to E.J. Scott for 12 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK) — WAKE win probability +28.5 pts (now 79%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:47: Isaiah Robinson run for 2 yds to the Army 39 — WAKE win probability +19.2 pts (now 89%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WAKE made the numbers' call on 3 of 6ARMY made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00ARMY 4th & 6 at ARMY 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:06WAKE 4th & 5 at WAKE 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:32ARMY 4th & 4 at ARMY 29, tied
    Close callPunted · 40.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.3%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:03ARMY 4th & 1 at ARMY 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    36.7%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:22WAKE 4th & 11 at ARMY 35, tied
    Close callWent for it · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.4%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    59.5%
    45% to make
    Punt
    59.2%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:00ARMY 4th & 9 at WAKE 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.5%−1.0
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.5%
    70% to make
    Punt
    52.0%−6.5
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00WAKE 4th & 5 at WAKE 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.6%−0.7
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.3%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:30ARMY 4th & 3 at ARMY 41, up 7
    Close callPunted · 59.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.5%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:26WAKE 4th & 12 at WAKE 7, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.0%−3.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:56ARMY 4th & 1 at WAKE 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    57.3%−4.9
    30% to make
    Punt
    58.3%−3.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:13WAKE 4th & 2 at ARMY 2, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 35.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.9%−3.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    18.8%−17.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:13ARMY 4th & 3 at WAKE 48, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 62.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.6%−1.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:07WAKE 4th & 5 at ARMY 21, up 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 7.9 ptsWent for it · 90.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.9%−7.9
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    92.8%
    74% to make
    Punt
    77.9%−14.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WAKE made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ARMY made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 6:00WAKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:49ARMY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:39WAKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:26ARMY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:23ARMY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:45WAKE Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.1%−1.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARMYDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
58.1%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, Defensive offside (Tylor Harris) to the Army 30Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 5
OWN 30
-1
58.1%
Tony Giovannelli run for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
58.1%
Larry Dixon run for 3 yds to the Army 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-3
58.1%
Angel Santiago run for a loss of 3 yards to the Army 29Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
58.1%
Alex Tardieu punt for 54 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q1 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
58.2%
John Wolford pass complete to Orville Reynolds for 6 yds to the WFrst 23Similar
Q1 13:06
2ND & 4
OWN 23
0
58.2%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Matt JamesSimilar
Q1 13:06
3RD & 4
OWN 23
+12
58.1%
John Wolford pass complete to Matt James for 12 yds to the WFrst 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
58.2%
Orville Reynolds run for 1 yd to the WFrst 36Similar
Q1 13:06
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+4
58.2%
John Wolford pass complete to Matt James for 4 yds to the WFrst 40Similar
Q1 13:06
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
58.2%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Matt JamesSimilar
Q1 13:06
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
58.1%
Alexander Kinal punt for 49 yds, downed at the Army 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q1 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
58.2%
Larry Dixon run for 5 yds to the Army 16Similar
Q1 10:32
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+7
58.2%
Tony Giovannelli run for 7 yds to the Army 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
58.1%
Larry Dixon run for 1 yd to the Army 24Similar
Q1 10:32
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+5
58.2%
Angel Santiago run for 5 yds to the Army 29Similar
Q1 10:32
3RD & 4
OWN 29
0
58.2%
Angel Santiago pass incomplete to Raymond MaplesSimilar
Q1 10:32
4TH & 4
OWN 29
0
58.5%
Alex Tardieu punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 4TD
6 plays · 74 yds · 1:4158% → 63%
Q1 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+23
58.2%
John Wolford pass complete to Matt James for 23 yds to the WFrst 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
58.9%
John Wolford pass complete to Cam Serigne for 11 yds to the Army 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
59.0%
Isaiah Robinson run for 11 yds to the Army 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
59.2%
Isaiah Robinson run for 7 yds to the Army 22Similar
Q1 7:41
2ND & 3
OPP 22
+7
59.2%
Isaiah Robinson run for 7 yds to the Army 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
62.6%
Isaiah Robinson run for 15 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 5TD
11 plays · 76 yds · 5:0538% → 44%
Q1 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
61.6%
Larry Dixon run for 5 yds to the Army 29Similar
Q1 5:03
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+2
61.8%
Seth Combs run for 2 yds to the Army 31Similar
Q1 5:03
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+2
62.0%
Angel Santiago run for 2 yds to the Army 33Similar
Q1 5:03
4TH & 1
OWN 33
+7
62.2%
Larry Dixon run for 7 yds to the Army 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
61.5%
ARMY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Army 35Similar
Q1 5:03
1ST & 15
OWN 35
+32
62.1%
Raymond Maples run for 32 yds to the WFrst 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
60.6%
Angel Santiago pass complete to Xavier Moss for 5 yds to the WFrst 28Similar
Q1 5:03
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+23
60.5%
Terry Baggett run for 23 yds to the WFrst 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
56.0%
Larry Dixon run for 5 yds for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 6TD
6 plays · 49 yds · 2:1061% → 66%
Q1 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+36
60.6%
John Wolford pass complete to E.J. Scott for 36 yds to the Army 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+11
61.2%
E.J. Scott run for 11 yds to the Army 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
61.4%
John Wolford pass complete to E.J. Scott for 1 yd to the Army 1Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
61.4%
Isaiah Robinson run for a loss of 5 yards to the Army 6Similar
Q2 13:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
66.1%
John Wolford pass complete to Cam Serigne for 6 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 7TD
10 plays · 74 yds · 4:0635% → 46%
Q2 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
64.6%
Angel Santiago run for 5 yds to the Army 31Similar
Q2 13:32
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+11
64.1%
Angel Santiago run for 11 yds to the Army 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
63.8%
Angel Santiago run for 9 yds to the WFrst 49Similar
Q2 13:32
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+37
62.9%
Angel Santiago run for 37 yds to the WFrst 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
62.2%
Matt Giachinta run for 3 yds to the WFrst 9Similar
Q2 10:44
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+8
62.1%
Angel Santiago run for 8 yds to the WFrst 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
62.1%
Larry Dixon run for no gain to the WFrst 1Similar
Q2 9:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
53.6%
Angel Santiago run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 8DOWNS
9 plays · 25 yds · 0:0059% → 58%
Q2 9:22
1ST & 15
OWN 38
+7
59.2%
John Wolford pass complete to Cam Serigne for 7 yds to the WFrst 45Similar
Q2 9:22
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+9
60.6%
John Wolford pass complete to Matt James for 9 yds to the Army 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
61.1%
John Wolford pass complete to Matt James for 4 yds to the Army 42Similar
Q2 9:22
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+8
61.1%
Orville Reynolds run for 8 yds to the Army 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
61.5%
John Wolford pass complete to Matt James for 6 yds to the Army 28Similar
Q2 9:22
2ND & 4
OPP 28
-7
61.6%
John Wolford sacked by Stephen Ricciardi for a loss of 7 yards to the Army 35Similar
Q2 9:22
3RD & 11
OPP 35
0
60.1%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Orville ReynoldsSimilar
Q2 9:22
4TH & 11
OPP 35
+3
58.4%
John Wolford pass complete to Cam Serigne for 3 yds to the Army 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 9TD
10 plays · 68 yds · 4:2845% → 60%
Q2 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+32
54.8%
Larry Dixon run for 32 yds to the WFrst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
53.0%
Terry Baggett run for 9 yds to the WFrst 27Similar
Q2 6:51
2ND & 1
OPP 27
+5
51.9%
Matt Giachinta run for 5 yds to the WFrst 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
51.9%
Matt Giachinta run for 1 yd to the WFrst 21Similar
Q2 6:51
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+8
51.9%
Angel Santiago run for 8 yds to the WFrst 13Similar
Q2 6:51
3RD & 1
OPP 13
+5
52.8%
Raymond Maples run for 5 yds to the WFrst 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
51.9%
Larry Dixon run for 2 yds to the WFrst 6Similar
Q2 6:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
51.9%
Angel Santiago run for 2 yds to the WFrst 4Similar
Q2 2:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
40.4%
Joe Walker pass complete to Xavier Moss for 4 yds for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 10INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q2 2:14
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+15
46.7%
ARMY Penalty, personal foul (N/A) to the WFrst 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
46.8%
John Wolford pass incomplete to E.J. ScottSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 11MISSED FG
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:5861% → 60%
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
38.7%
Larry Dixon run for 2 yds to the WFrst 22Similar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+2
38.7%
Terry Baggett run for 2 yds to the WFrst 20Similar
Q2 1:58
3RD & 6
OPP 20
-3
39.1%
Angel Santiago sacked by Zachary Allen for a loss of 3 yards to the WFrst 23Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 9
OPP 23
+40
39.7%
Daniel Grochowski 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0043% → 42%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
43.2%
John Wolford pass complete to Matt James for 6 yds to the WFrst 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-1
44.5%
John Wolford pass complete to Orville Reynolds for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
42.7%
John Wolford pass incomplete to E.J. Scott, broken up by Mike UgenyiSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
41.5%
Alexander Kinal punt for 36 yds, downed at the Army 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
41.1%
Larry Dixon run for 4 yds to the Army 38Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 6
OWN 38
-2
39.6%
Angel Santiago run for a loss of 2 yards to the Army 36Similar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 8
OWN 36
+5
41.5%
Xavier Moss run for 5 yds to the Army 41Similar
Q3 13:30
4TH & 3
OWN 41
0
41.5%
Alex Tardieu punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0042% → 40%
Q3 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-3
41.8%
E.J. Scott run for a loss of 3 yards to the WFrst 6Similar
Q3 11:26
2ND & 13
OWN 6
+1
41.7%
Isaiah Robinson run for 1 yd to the WFrst 7Similar
Q3 11:26
3RD & 12
OWN 7
0
40.6%
John Wolford pass incomplete, broken up by Jeremy TimpfSimilar
Q3 11:26
4TH & 12
OWN 7
+43
40.1%
Alexander Kinal punt for 43 yds , Josh Jenkins returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 15FUMBLE
12 plays · 23 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q3 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
37.1%
Larry Dixon run for 7 yds to the WFrst 44Similar
Q3 9:56
2ND & 3
OPP 44
-2
36.6%
Angel Santiago run for 8 yds to the WFrst 36 ARMY Penalty, Offensive holding (N/A) to the WFrst 46Similar
Q3 9:56
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+2
36.8%
Raymond Maples run for 2 yds to the WFrst 44Similar
Q3 9:56
3RD & 3
OPP 44
-5
37.2%
ARMY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the WFrst 49Similar
Q3 9:56
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+7
37.4%
Angel Santiago run for 7 yds to the WFrst 42Similar
Q3 9:56
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+3
38.6%
Larry Dixon run for 3 yds to the WFrst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
36.7%
Matt Giachinta run for 4 yds to the WFrst 35Similar
Q3 9:56
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+21
36.1%
Trenton Turrentine run for 21 yds to the WFrst 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
36.1%
Matt Giachinta run for no gain to the WFrst 14Similar
Q3 9:56
2ND & 10
OPP 14
-10
36.1%
Turrentine, T. rush over right end for 7 yards to the WF7 (Wooding, A), PENALTY ARMY holding (Hugenberg, Matt) 10 yards to the WF24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:56
2ND & 20
OPP 24
+12
36.4%
Angel Santiago run for 12 yds to the WFrst 12Similar
Q3 9:56
3RD & 8
OPP 12
-5
36.9%
Joe Walker run for a loss of 5 yards to the WFrst 28 Joe Walker fumbled, recovered by WFrst Zachary AllenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 16FG
16 plays · 70 yds · 4:5139% → 46%
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+14
39.1%
John Wolford pass complete to Jared Crump for 14 yds to the WFrst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
41.2%
Isaiah Robinson run for 4 yds to the WFrst 46Similar
Q3 4:04
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+13
42.1%
John Wolford pass complete to Cam Serigne for 13 yds to the Army 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
43.2%
Isaiah Robinson run for no gain to the Army 41Similar
Q3 4:04
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+8
43.0%
John Wolford pass complete to Jared Crump for 8 yds to the Army 33Similar
Q3 4:04
3RD & 2
OPP 33
+3
43.5%
Isaiah Robinson run for 3 yds to the Army 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-4
45.6%
Isaiah Robinson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Army 34Similar
Q3 4:04
2ND & 14
OPP 34
0
43.0%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Jared CrumpSimilar
Q3 4:04
3RD & 14
OPP 34
+24
40.4%
John Wolford pass complete to Jared Crump for 24 yds to the Army 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
45.6%
John Wolford run for 4 yds to the Army 6Similar
Q3 4:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-3
45.6%
John Wolford run for a loss of 3 yards to the Army 9Similar
Q3 4:04
3RD & 0
OPP 9
+7
43.2%
Wolford, J middle pass incomplete to Scott, EJ (Bacon, Geoffery), PENALTY ARMY pass interference (Bacon, Geoffery) 7 yards to the ARMY2, 1ST DOWN WF, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
45.6%
Isaiah Robinson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Army 4Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
41.8%
Isaiah Robinson run for 2 yds to the Army 2Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
39.5%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Jaboree WilliamsSimilar
Q4 14:13
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
45.7%
Mike Weaver 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 0:0062% → 63%
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
38.1%
Angel Santiago run for 8 yds to the Army 33Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+2
36.5%
Larry Dixon run for 2 yds to the Army 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
37.2%
Larry Dixon run for 10 yds to the Army 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
35.2%
Raymond Maples run for no gain to the Army 45Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-2
35.7%
Angel Santiago run for a loss of 2 yards to the Army 43Similar
Q4 14:13
3RD & 12
OWN 43
+9
37.5%
Angel Santiago pass complete to Raymond Maples for 9 yds to the WFrst 48Similar
Q4 14:13
4TH & 3
OPP 48
0
37.2%
Alex Tardieu punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Jared Crump at the WFrst 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 18TD
11 plays · 84 yds · 4:1342% → 79%
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+36
41.7%
Orville Reynolds run for 36 yds to the Army 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
47.3%
Orville Reynolds run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:58
2ND & 12
50
0
44.4%
John Wolford pass complete to Orville Reynolds for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:58
3RD & 12
50
+13
43.3%
John Wolford pass complete to E.J. Scott for 13 yds to the Army 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
47.5%
Orville Reynolds run for 4 yds to the Army 33Similar
Q4 10:58
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+2
50.4%
John Wolford pass complete to E.J. Scott for 2 yds to the Army 31Similar
Q4 10:58
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+8
47.6%
John Wolford pass complete to Cam Serigne for 8 yds to the Army 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
50.4%
John Wolford pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q4 10:58
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+11
50.1%
John Wolford pass complete to Jared Crump for 11 yds to the Army 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
50.4%
Orville Reynolds run for no gain to the Army 12Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+12
78.9%
John Wolford pass complete to E.J. Scott for 12 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 19FUMBLE
11 plays · 16 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
69.0%
ARMY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Army 20Similar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+2
69.5%
Angel Santiago run for 2 yds to the Army 22Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+6
69.7%
Terry Baggett run for 6 yds to the Army 28Similar
Q4 6:45
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+8
70.2%
Angel Santiago run for 8 yds to the Army 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
67.4%
Larry Dixon run for 4 yds to the Army 40Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+11
64.9%
Raymond Maples run for 11 yds to the WFrst 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
62.7%
Trenton Turrentine run for 1 yd to the WFrst 48Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+4
63.0%
Trenton Turrentine run for 4 yds to the WFrst 44Similar
Q4 6:45
3RD & 5
OPP 44
-15
63.4%
Santiago, Angel rush right for 4 yards to the WF40 (Allen, Z), PENALTY ARMY illegal block (Hugenberg, Matt) 15 yards to the ARMY41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:45
3RD & 20
OWN 41
-1
69.3%
Angel Santiago run for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 41 Angel Santiago fumbled, forced by Wendell Dunn, recovered by WFrst Tylor HarrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 20DOWNS
11 plays · 12 yds · 2:4089% → 96%
Q4 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
88.5%
Isaiah Robinson run for 2 yds to the Army 39Similar
Q4 2:38
2ND & 8
OPP 39
0
89.2%
Isaiah Robinson run for no gain to the Army 39Similar
Q4 2:34
3RD & 8
OPP 39
+13
88.8%
Isaiah Robinson run for 13 yds to the Army 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-1
90.7%
John Wolford run for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 27Similar
Q4 2:34
2ND & 11
OPP 27
+3
90.5%
Isaiah Robinson run for 3 yds to the Army 24Similar
Q4 0:58
3RD & 8
OPP 24
+3
92.8%
Isaiah Robinson run for 3 yds to the Army 21Similar
Q4 0:07
4TH & 5
OPP 21
-8
95.7%
John Wolford run for a loss of 8 yards to the Army 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 21END OF GAME
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q4 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
88.2%
Angel Santiago pass incomplete to Raymond Maples, broken up by Thomas BrownSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:45
John Wolford pass complete to E.J. Scott for 12 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK)
+28.5
KEY PLAY · Q4 2:47
Isaiah Robinson run for 2 yds to the Army 39
+19.2
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+11.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com