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FOR

Fordham 31 at Army 42

ARMY
2014 · Week 13 · Nov 22, 2014 · Michie Stadium
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Win probability · ARMY
modelARMY aheadFOR aheadconfidence bandkey playARMY scoreFOR score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:13 · TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Fordh 3
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:20: Terry Baggett run for 6 yds for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK) — ARMY win probability +9.0 pts (now 41%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:05: Lamar Johnson-Harris 0 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Daniel Grochowski Kick) — ARMY win probability +16.6 pts (now 56%) (top driver: FOR has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:07: Larry Dixon run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK) — ARMY win probability +12.3 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:54: Mike Nebrich pass complete to Brian Wetzel for 65 yds for a TD, (Michael Marando KICK) — FOR win probability +14.9 pts (now 19%) (top driver: FOR has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:42: Larry Dixon run for 30 yds for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK) — ARMY win probability +13.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARMY made the numbers' call on 5 of 7FOR made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 12:12FOR 4th & 6 at ARMY 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.9%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.9%
    70% to make
    Punt
    70.5%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:02ARMY 4th & 1 at FOR 42, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    28.9%−0.2
    30% to make
    Punt
    29.0%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 12:02ARMY 4th & 10 at FOR 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    28.9%−<0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    28.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:07FOR 4th & 5 at FOR 42, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.4%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.5%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:55ARMY 4th & 1 at ARMY 42, down 3
    Close callPunted · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.7%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00FOR 4th & 2 at ARMY 40, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    66.9%−0.8
    34% to make
    Punt
    67.0%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:31FOR 4th & 16 at ARMY 29, up 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.2 ptsWent for it · 65.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.2%−1.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    65.4%
    58% to make
    Punt
    62.4%−3.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:02ARMY 4th & 1 at ARMY 36, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    33.7%−1.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:22ARMY 4th & 6 at FOR 46, down 3
    Close callPunted · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    35.6%−1.0
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    36.3%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:05FOR 4th & 12 at FOR 8, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.4%−1.7
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:02FOR 4th & 5 at FOR 48, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.9%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:20ARMY 4th & 1 at ARMY 37, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    68.9%−2.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:20ARMY 4th & 2 at FOR 36, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    68.2%−2.3
    42% to make
    Punt
    67.7%−2.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:15FOR 4th & 7 at FOR 49, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.1%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARMY made the numbers' call on 5 of 5FOR made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q2 11:31FOR Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:20ARMY Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:05ARMY Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 13:07ARMY Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 12:54FOR Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:42ARMY Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:18FOR Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.1%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.2%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:55ARMY Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 0:15FOR Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.7%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FORDrive 1FG
9 plays · 47 yds · 2:4870% → 69%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
30.0%
Chase Edmonds run for 4 yds to the Fordh 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+22
30.0%
Mike Nebrich pass complete to Brian Wetzel for 22 yds to the Army 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+17
30.0%
Mike Nebrich pass complete to Brian Wetzel for 17 yds to the Army 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
30.6%
Mike Nebrich pass complete to Sam Ajala for 6 yds to the Army 21Similar
Q1 13:28
2ND & 4
OPP 21
-2
30.6%
Mike Nebrich pass complete to Brian Wetzel for a loss of 2 yards to the Army 23Similar
Q1 13:28
3RD & 6
OPP 23
0
30.6%
Mike Nebrich pass incomplete to Tebucky Jones Jr., broken up by Andrew KingSimilar
Q1 12:12
4TH & 6
OPP 23
+40
31.1%
Michael Marando 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 11 yds · 0:0032% → 31%
Q1 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
31.5%
Terry Baggett run for 5 yds to the Fordh 46Similar
Q1 12:02
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+3
31.5%
Angel Santiago run for 3 yds to the Fordh 43Similar
Q1 12:02
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+1
31.5%
Angel Santiago run for 1 yd to the Fordh 42Similar
Q1 12:02
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+2
31.4%
Angel Santiago run for 2 yds to the Fordh 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
31.5%
Angel Santiago run for 2 yds to the Fordh 38Similar
Q1 12:02
2ND & 8
OPP 38
-2
31.5%
Angel Santiago run for a loss of 2 yards to the Fordh 40Similar
Q1 12:02
3RD & 10
OPP 40
0
31.4%
Angel Santiago pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:02
4TH & 10
OPP 40
0
31.2%
Alex Tardieu punt for 35 yds, downed at the Fordh 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FORDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 37 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+4
32.9%
Mike Nebrich pass complete to Sam Ajala for 4 yds to the Fordh 9Similar
Q1 8:07
2ND & 6
OWN 9
+9
33.0%
Mike Nebrich pass complete to Brian Wetzel for 9 yds to the Fordh 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
32.8%
Chase Edmonds run for 1 yd to the Fordh 19Similar
Q1 8:07
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+18
32.8%
Mike Nebrich pass complete to Brian Wetzel for 18 yds to the Fordh 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-3
32.6%
Mike Nebrich run for a loss of 3 yards to the Fordh 34Similar
Q1 8:07
2ND & 13
OWN 34
+1
32.8%
Mike Nebrich pass complete to Chase Edmonds for 1 yd to the Fordh 35Similar
Q1 8:07
3RD & 12
OWN 35
+7
32.9%
Mike Nebrich pass complete to Kendall Pearcey for 7 yds to the Fordh 42Similar
Q1 8:07
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
32.8%
Joseph Pavlik punt for 25 yds, fair catch by Edgar Poe at the Army 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
34.0%
Matt Giachinta run for 4 yds to the Army 37Similar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 6
OWN 37
0
34.6%
Angel Santiago pass incomplete to Xavier Moss, broken up by Jordan ChapmanSimilar
Q1 3:55
3RD & 6
OWN 37
+5
33.9%
Angel Santiago pass complete to Edgar Poe for 5 yds to the Army 42Similar
Q1 3:55
4TH & 1
OWN 42
0
34.3%
Alex Tardieu punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Brian Wetzel at the Fordh 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FORDrive 5TD
17 plays · 80 yds · 6:1365% → 69%
Q1 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
34.6%
Chase Edmonds run for 4 yds to the Fordh 24Similar
Q1 2:44
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+3
34.5%
Chase Edmonds run for 3 yds to the Fordh 27Similar
Q1 2:44
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+12
34.5%
Mike Nebrich pass complete to Brian Wetzel for 12 yds to the Fordh 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-4
33.8%
Mike Nebrich pass complete to Brian Wetzel for a loss of 4 yards to the Fordh 35Similar
Q1 2:44
2ND & 14
OWN 35
+17
34.6%
Mike Nebrich pass complete to Dan Light for 17 yds to the Army 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
33.5%
Chase Edmonds run for 2 yds to the Army 46Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 46
0
33.5%
Mike Nebrich pass incomplete to Sam AjalaSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+6
33.8%
Mike Nebrich pass complete to Kendall Pearcey for 6 yds to the Army 40Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 40
+6
34.4%
Mike Nebrich pass complete to Sam Ajala for 6 yds to the Army 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
33.1%
Chase Edmonds run for 7 yds to the Army 27Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 27
+4
33.1%
Chase Edmonds run for 4 yds to the Army 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-10
33.1%
Edmonds, Chase rush for 6 yards to the ARMY17 (Glover, Richard), PENALTY FOR holding (Mayweather, Gar) 10 yards to the ARMY33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 20
OPP 33
0
33.2%
Mike Nebrich pass incomplete to Tebucky Jones Jr., broken up by Chris CarnegieSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 20
OPP 33
0
33.5%
Mike Nebrich pass incomplete to Sam AjalaSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 20
OPP 33
+4
34.3%
Mike Nebrich run for 4 yds to the Army 29Similar
Q2 11:31
4TH & 16
OPP 29
+29
30.7%
Joseph Pavlik pass complete to Marc DeSisto for 29 yds for a TD, (Michael Marando KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 6TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:1130% → 41%
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
29.5%
Terry Baggett run for 9 yds to the Army 34Similar
Q2 11:31
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
30.2%
A.J. Schurr run for 3 yds to the Army 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+54
29.9%
A.J. Schurr run for 54 yds to the Fordh 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
31.9%
Angel Santiago run for 3 yds to the Fordh 6Similar
Q2 9:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
40.9%
Terry Baggett run for 6 yds for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FORDrive 7INT
11 plays · 47 yds · 0:0063% → 65%
Q2 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
36.7%
Chase Edmonds run for 10 yds to the Fordh 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
36.3%
Mike Nebrich pass incomplete to Tebucky Jones Jr.Similar
Q2 9:16
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
36.6%
Mike Nebrich pass incomplete to Chase EdmondsSimilar
Q2 9:16
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+13
37.0%
Mike Nebrich pass complete to Kendall Pearcey for 13 yds to the Fordh 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
35.3%
Mike Nebrich pass complete to Chase Edmonds for 5 yds to the Army 47Similar
Q2 9:16
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+2
34.8%
Mike Nebrich pass complete to Brian Wetzel for 2 yds to the Army 45Similar
Q2 9:16
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+13
35.0%
Chase Edmonds run for 13 yds to the Army 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
34.5%
Mike Nebrich run for 2 yds to the Army 30Similar
Q2 9:16
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+2
34.4%
Chase Edmonds run for 2 yds to the Army 28Similar
Q2 9:16
3RD & 6
OPP 28
0
34.8%
Mike Nebrich pass intercepted John Voit return for no gain to the Army 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 8PUNT
10 plays · 27 yds · 3:4038% → 39%
Q2 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-3
38.3%
Joe Walker run for a loss of 3 yards to the Army 24Similar
Q2 5:02
2ND & 13
OWN 24
+9
37.6%
Terry Baggett run for 9 yds to the Army 33Similar
Q2 5:02
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+3
37.8%
Angel Santiago run for 3 yds to the Army 36Similar
Q2 5:02
4TH & 1
OWN 36
+14
37.8%
Kelvin White run for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:02
1ST & 10
50
+1
40.5%
Larry Dixon run for 1 yd to the Fordh 49Similar
Q2 5:02
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+6
40.6%
Angel Santiago run for 6 yds to the Fordh 43Similar
Q2 5:02
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+2
40.6%
Larry Dixon run for 2 yds to the Fordh 41Similar
Q2 1:22
4TH & 1
OPP 41
-5
39.3%
ARMY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Fordh 46Similar
Q2 1:22
4TH & 6
OPP 46
0
38.7%
Alex Tardieu punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Brian Wetzel at the Fordh 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FORDrive 9PUNT TD
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:0962% → 44%
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
37.6%
Mike Nebrich pass incomplete to Dan LightSimilar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+5
37.8%
Mike Nebrich pass complete to Sam Ajala for 5 yds to the Fordh 15Similar
Q2 1:14
3RD & 5
OWN 15
-7
38.1%
Mike Nebrich sacked by Andrew King for a loss of 7 yards to the Fordh 8Similar
Q2 0:05
4TH & 12
OWN 8
0
55.8%
Lamar Johnson-Harris 0 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Daniel Grochowski Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 12TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 3:4564% → 69%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
64.2%
Larry Dixon run for 12 yds to the Army 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
65.6%
Larry Dixon run for 6 yds to the Fordh 47Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+4
65.7%
Larry Dixon run for 4 yds to the Fordh 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
65.7%
Larry Dixon run for 7 yds to the Fordh 36Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+22
65.7%
Larry Dixon run for 22 yds to the Fordh 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
65.5%
Aaron Kemper run for 3 yds to the Fordh 11Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+6
65.5%
A.J. Schurr run for 6 yds to the Fordh 5Similar
Q3 11:09
3RD & 1
OPP 5
+5
69.0%
Larry Dixon run for 5 yds for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FORDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 29 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+24
67.0%
Mike Nebrich pass complete to Brian Wetzel for 24 yds to the Fordh 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
65.6%
Mike Nebrich pass complete to Marcus Jones for 2 yds to the Fordh 45Similar
Q3 11:02
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+3
65.1%
Chase Edmonds run for 3 yds to the Fordh 48Similar
Q3 11:02
3RD & 5
OWN 48
0
65.1%
Mike Nebrich pass incomplete to Sam Ajala, broken up by Josh JenkinsSimilar
Q3 11:02
4TH & 5
OWN 48
+1
67.0%
Joseph Pavlik punt for 37 yds , Edgar Poe returns for 1 yd to the Army 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 14TD
20 plays · 84 yds · 11:1371% → 96%
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
70.6%
Larry Dixon run for 1 yd to the Army 17Similar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+4
70.5%
Aaron Kemper run for 4 yds to the Army 21Similar
Q3 9:20
3RD & 5
OWN 21
+7
69.4%
A.J. Schurr run for 7 yds to the Army 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
70.7%
Aaron Kemper run for 7 yds to the Army 35Similar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+2
71.3%
Aaron Kemper run for 2 yds to the Army 37Similar
Q3 9:20
3RD & 1
OWN 37
0
70.7%
Aaron Kemper run for no gain to the Army 37Similar
Q3 9:20
4TH & 1
OWN 37
+4
69.7%
Angel Santiago run for 4 yds to the Army 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
72.2%
Terry Baggett run for 15 yds to the Fordh 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
72.5%
Angel Santiago run for 1 yd to the Fordh 43Similar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+4
72.3%
Aaron Kemper run for 4 yds to the Fordh 39Similar
Q3 9:20
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+3
71.5%
Angel Santiago run for 3 yds to the Fordh 36Similar
Q3 9:20
4TH & 2
OPP 36
+3
70.1%
Angel Santiago run for 3 yds to the Fordh 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
72.5%
Terry Baggett run for 8 yds to the Fordh 25Similar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 2
OPP 25
+1
72.5%
Larry Dixon run for 1 yd to the Fordh 24Similar
Q3 9:20
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+2
71.6%
Angel Santiago run for 2 yds to the Fordh 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
72.5%
Joe Walker run for 6 yds to the Fordh 16Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+3
83.7%
Larry Dixon run for 3 yds to the Fordh 13Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 13
+3
82.8%
Angel Santiago run for 3 yds to the Fordh 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
83.5%
Raymond Maples run for 9 yds to the Fordh 1Similar
Q4 13:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.8%
Larry Dixon run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FORDrive 15TD
2 plays · 65 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+65
80.7%
Mike Nebrich pass complete to Brian Wetzel for 65 yds for a TD, (Michael Marando KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 16TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 6:0884% → 98%
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
83.8%
Larry Dixon run for 4 yds to the Army 29Similar
Q4 12:50
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
83.8%
Joe Walker run for 5 yds to the Army 34Similar
Q4 12:50
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
83.5%
Larry Dixon run for 3 yds to the Army 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
84.2%
Larry Dixon run for 8 yds to the Army 45Similar
Q4 12:50
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+3
84.9%
Angel Santiago run for 3 yds to the Army 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+10
84.9%
Larry Dixon run for 10 yds to the Fordh 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
85.1%
Larry Dixon run for 3 yds to the Fordh 39Similar
Q4 12:50
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+6
85.1%
Trenton Turrentine run for 6 yds to the Fordh 33Similar
Q4 12:50
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+3
84.5%
Angel Santiago run for 3 yds to the Fordh 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
97.5%
Larry Dixon run for 30 yds for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FORDrive 17TD
5 plays · 68 yds · 1:184% → 12%
Q4 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+10
96.4%
Chase Edmonds run for 10 yds to the Fordh 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+23
96.4%
Mike Nebrich pass complete to Adam Malkiewicz for 23 yds to the Army 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+27
95.9%
Mike Nebrich pass complete to Brian Wetzel for 27 yds to the Army 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
88.1%
Mike Nebrich pass complete to Tebucky Jones Jr. for 8 yds for a TD, (Michael Marando KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 18TD
9 plays · 38 yds · 2:2093% → 99%
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+24
92.9%
Larry Dixon run for 24 yds to the Fordh 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
92.8%
Larry Dixon run for 2 yds to the Fordh 12Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+7
92.8%
Larry Dixon run for 7 yds to the Fordh 5Similar
Q4 5:15
3RD & 1
OPP 5
+2
92.5%
Angel Santiago run for 2 yds to the Fordh 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
96.0%
Larry Dixon run for 2 yds to the Fordh 1Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.0%
Raymond Maples run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FORDrive 19TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 2:052% → 3%
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
98.5%
Mike Nebrich pass complete to Chase Edmonds for 5 yds to the Fordh 25Similar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+6
98.4%
Chase Edmonds run for 6 yds to the Fordh 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-10
98.4%
Nebrich, Mike pass incomplete to Jones, Tebucky, PENALTY FOR holding (Mizera, Joseph) 10 yards to the FOR21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:20
1ST & 20
OWN 21
+25
98.5%
Kendall Pearcey run for 25 yds to the Fordh 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
98.4%
Mike Nebrich pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
98.4%
Mike Nebrich pass incomplete to Kendall PearceySimilar
Q4 2:20
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+3
98.4%
Mike Nebrich pass complete to Brian Wetzel for 3 yds to the Fordh 49Similar
Q4 0:15
4TH & 7
OWN 49
+51
97.0%
Mike Nebrich pass complete to Adam Malkiewicz for 51 yds for a TD, (Michael Marando KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 20END OF GAME
3 plays · 41 yds · 0:0097% → 98%
Q4 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+43
97.3%
Angel Santiago pass complete to Kelvin White for 43 yds to the Fordh 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
97.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Fordh 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:05
Lamar Johnson-Harris 0 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Daniel Grochowski Kick)
+16.6
TD · Q4 12:54
Mike Nebrich pass complete to Brian Wetzel for 65 yds for a TD, (Michael Marando KICK)
-14.9
TD · Q4 6:42
Larry Dixon run for 30 yds for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK)
+13.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com