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ARMY

Army 43 at Yale 49

YALE
2014 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2014 · Yale Bowl
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Win probability · YALE
modelYALE aheadARMY aheadconfidence bandkey playYALE scoreARMY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:34 · Alex Tardieu punt for 35 yds , Robert Ries returns for no gain to the Army 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 182Pregame prior−4.0Home team on offense−21.5Score differential−3.8Garbage-time factor−9.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−6.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 5:08: Morgan Roberts pass complete to Ross Drwal for 22 yds for a TD, (Kyle Cazzetta KICK) — YALE win probability +13.1 pts (now 29%) (top driver: YALE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 0:21: Tyler Varga run for 18 yds for a TD, (Kyle Cazzetta KICK) — YALE win probability +24.0 pts (now 52%) (top driver: YALE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:57: Angel Santiago run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK) — ARMY win probability +16.8 pts (now 83%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:42: Tyler Varga run for 10 yds for a TD, (Kyle Cazzetta KICK) — YALE win probability +38.8 pts (now 64%) (top driver: YALE has the ball).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: Tyler Varga run for 3 yds for a TD — YALE win probability +24.9 pts (now 87%) (top driver: YALE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
YALE made the numbers' call on 6 of 7ARMY made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00ARMY 4th & 21 at YALE 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.5%−0.1
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    81.6%−<0.1
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    81.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:32YALE 4th & 8 at YALE 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.0%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:29ARMY 4th & 2 at YALE 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    76.4%−0.2
    91% to make
    Punt
    75.2%−1.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:28YALE 4th & 1 at YALE 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    21.1%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00ARMY 4th & 1 at ARMY 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 73.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.8%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:26YALE 4th & 10 at ARMY 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.7%
    75% to make
    Punt
    27.4%−2.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:01YALE 4th & 3 at ARMY 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.2%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    23.0%−1.2
    40% to make
    Punt
    22.7%−1.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:35YALE 4th & 20 at YALE 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.2%−2.9
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:33ARMY 4th & 10 at YALE 45, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 78.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.0%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    78.1%
    25% to make
    Punt
    77.9%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:04ARMY 4th & 10 at ARMY 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.8%−3.0
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:40YALE 4th & 3 at midfield, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    26.4%−1.8
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:05ARMY 4th & 1 at YALE 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    77.8%−2.5
    83% to make
    Punt
    70.3%−10.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:34YALE 4th & 6 at YALE 46, down 7
    Close callPunted · 22.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.5%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:34ARMY 4th & 1 at ARMY 10, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.8 ptsPunted · 81.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.7%−3.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
YALE made the numbers' call on 5 of 6ARMY made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 3:28ARMY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:07YALE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:06ARMY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:14YALE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:12ARMY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 13:32ARMY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 10:12YALE Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    21.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    21.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 8:32ARMY Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    83.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    83.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 5:08YALE Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 0:21YALE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 14:57ARMY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 1:42YALE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.3%−1.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARMYDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 38 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
18.3%
A.J. Schurr pass complete to John Trainor for 8 yds to the Army 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
18.3%
Raymond Maples run for 3 yds to the Army 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+38
18.3%
A.J. Schurr run for 38 yds to the Yale 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-5
18.3%
ARMY Penalty, delay of game (A.J. Schurr) to the Yale 31Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 31
-1
18.3%
A.J. Schurr run for a loss of 1 yard to the Yale 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 16
OPP 32
0
18.3%
A.J. Schurr pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 16
OPP 32
-5
18.3%
A.J. Schurr sacked by Matthew Oplinger for a loss of 5 yards to the Yale 37Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 21
OPP 37
0
18.3%
Alex Tardieu punt for 36 yds, downed at the Yale 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YALEDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+23
20.1%
Tyler Varga run for 23 yds to the Yale 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
20.0%
Tyler Varga run for 2 yds to the Yale 26Similar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 8
OWN 26
0
20.1%
Morgan Roberts pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 11:32
3RD & 8
OWN 26
0
19.9%
Morgan Roberts pass incomplete to Grant WallaceSimilar
Q1 11:32
4TH & 8
OWN 26
0
19.8%
Bryan Holmes punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Army 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 3TD
14 plays · 57 yds · 6:5980% → 80%
Q1 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
20.2%
A.J. Schurr run for 4 yds to the Army 47Similar
Q1 10:27
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+2
20.2%
Larry Dixon run for 2 yds to the Army 49Similar
Q1 10:27
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+10
20.3%
A.J. Schurr run for 10 yds to the Yale 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
20.2%
Raymond Maples run for 9 yds to the Yale 32Similar
Q1 10:27
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+5
20.1%
Raymond Maples run for 5 yds to the Yale 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
20.1%
Matt Giachinta run for 7 yds to the Yale 20Similar
Q1 10:27
2ND & 3
OPP 20
+6
20.1%
A.J. Schurr run for 6 yds to the Yale 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
20.1%
Larry Dixon run for no gain to the Yale 14Similar
Q1 10:27
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+7
20.1%
A.J. Schurr run for 7 yds to the Yale 7Similar
Q1 10:27
3RD & 3
OPP 7
+1
20.2%
Raymond Maples run for 1 yd to the Yale 6Similar
Q1 4:29
4TH & 2
OPP 6
+3
23.4%
A.J. Schurr run for 3 yds to the Yale 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
22.7%
Terry Baggett run for no gain to the Yale 3Similar
Q1 3:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
20.3%
Larry Dixon run for 3 yds for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YALEDrive 4TD
13 plays · 65 yds · 3:2122% → 29%
Q1 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
21.5%
Morgan Roberts pass incomplete to Grant WallaceSimilar
Q1 3:28
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+8
21.5%
Tyler Varga run for 8 yds to the Yale 43Similar
Q1 3:28
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+1
22.0%
Tyler Varga run for 1 yd to the Yale 44Similar
Q1 3:28
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+6
21.7%
Tyler Varga run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:28
1ST & 10
50
0
22.3%
Morgan Roberts pass incomplete to Robert Clemons IIISimilar
Q1 3:28
2ND & 10
50
+8
22.1%
Morgan Roberts pass complete to Robert Clemons III for 8 yds to the Army 42Similar
Q1 3:28
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+8
22.3%
Morgan Roberts pass complete to Grant Wallace for 8 yds to the Army 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
22.8%
Morgan Roberts pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 3:28
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+2
22.7%
Morgan Roberts pass complete to Robert Clemons III for 2 yds to the Army 32Similar
Q1 3:28
3RD & 8
OPP 32
+15
22.3%
Roberts, Morgan pass incomplete to Little, Seb, PENALTY ARMY pass interference (Johnson, Steven) 15 yards to the ARMY17, 1ST DOWN YALE, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
22.8%
Tyler Varga run for 4 yds to the Army 13Similar
Q1 0:07
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+13
28.7%
Morgan Roberts run for 13 yds for a TD, (Kyle Cazzetta KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:0774% → 74%
Q1 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
25.9%
A.J. Schurr run for 1 yd to the Army 26Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-5
26.0%
ARMY Penalty, Offensive offside (N/A) to the Army 21Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+12
26.1%
A.J. Schurr pass complete to Xavier Moss for 12 yds to the Army 33Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
25.7%
Aaron Kemper run for 1 yd to the Army 34Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+5
26.3%
Alex Tardieu punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Yale 24 , Deon Randall returns for 5 yds to the Yale 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YALEDrive 6MISSED FG
9 plays · 56 yds · 3:0428% → 31%
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+14
28.1%
Candler Rich run for 14 yds to the Yale 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
28.7%
Morgan Roberts run for a loss of 1 yard to the Yale 37Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+18
28.4%
Morgan Roberts pass complete to Stephen Buric for 18 yds to the Army 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+14
29.6%
Candler Rich run for 14 yds to the Army 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+11
30.0%
Morgan Roberts pass complete to Grant Wallace for 11 yds to the Army 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
30.0%
Tyler Varga run for 6 yds to the Army 14Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 4
OPP 14
0
30.0%
Morgan Roberts pass incomplete to Robert Clemons IIISimilar
Q2 13:30
3RD & 4
OPP 14
-6
29.5%
Morgan Roberts sacked by Andrew King for a loss of 6 yards to the Army 20Similar
Q2 10:26
4TH & 10
OPP 20
+37
30.6%
Kyle Cazzetta 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 7TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 4:2071% → 79%
Q2 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
28.7%
Terry Baggett run for 3 yds to the Army 23Similar
Q2 10:26
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+2
28.7%
Larry Dixon run for 2 yds to the Army 25Similar
Q2 10:26
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+7
29.1%
A.J. Schurr run for 7 yds to the Army 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
28.4%
Terry Baggett run for no gain to the Army 32Similar
Q2 10:26
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+1
28.6%
A.J. Schurr run for 1 yd to the Army 33Similar
Q2 10:26
3RD & 9
OWN 33
+27
29.1%
A.J. Schurr pass complete to Joe Walker for 27 yds to the Yale 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+12
27.0%
A.J. Schurr pass complete to Tony Giovannelli for 12 yds to the Yale 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
26.5%
A.J. Schurr run for 6 yds to the Yale 22Similar
Q2 6:06
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+22
21.2%
A.J. Schurr pass complete to Edgar Poe for 22 yds for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YALEDrive 8TD
12 plays · 70 yds · 3:4724% → 40%
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
23.8%
Candler Rich run for 5 yds to the Yale 35Similar
Q2 6:01
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+6
24.4%
Candler Rich run for 6 yds to the Yale 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
24.7%
Morgan Roberts run for 8 yds to the Yale 49Similar
Q2 6:01
2ND & 2
OWN 49
0
25.4%
Tyler Varga run for no gain to the Yale 49Similar
Q2 6:01
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+7
25.0%
Tyler Varga run for 7 yds to the Army 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
25.6%
Morgan Roberts pass incomplete to Grant WallaceSimilar
Q2 6:01
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+7
25.4%
Kahlil Keys run for 7 yds to the Army 37Similar
Q2 6:01
3RD & 3
OPP 37
0
25.6%
Morgan Roberts pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 6:01
4TH & 3
OPP 37
+9
24.8%
Tyler Varga run for 9 yds to the Army 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+26
26.6%
Morgan Roberts pass complete to Stephen Buric for 26 yds to the Army 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
39.5%
Tyler Varga run for 2 yds for a TD, (Kyle Cazzetta KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 9TD
6 plays · 70 yds · 0:5568% → 79%
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
32.0%
Tony Giovannelli run for 12 yds to the Army 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
30.4%
A.J. Schurr pass incomplete to Xavier MossSimilar
Q2 2:07
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+15
30.9%
A.J. Schurr run for 15 yds to the Yale 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
29.7%
A.J. Schurr pass incomplete to Edgar PoeSimilar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+43
20.7%
A.J. Schurr run for 43 yds for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YALEDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 1 yds · 0:3724% → 23%
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
24.3%
Morgan Roberts pass incomplete to Robert Clemons IIISimilar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
24.2%
Morgan Roberts pass complete to Michael Siragusa Jr. for 11 yds to the Yale 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
24.9%
Morgan Roberts pass incomplete to Candler Rich, broken up by Jeremy TimpfSimilar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-5
24.8%
YALE Penalty, false start (N/A) to the Yale 31Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 15
OWN 31
0
24.2%
Morgan Roberts pass incomplete to Michael Siragusa Jr.Similar
Q2 1:12
3RD & 15
OWN 31
-5
23.5%
Morgan Roberts pass complete to Deon Randall for a loss of 5 yards to the Yale 26Similar
Q2 0:35
4TH & 20
OWN 26
+4
23.3%
Bryan Holmes punt for 36 yds , Josh Jenkins returns for 4 yds to the Army 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 11DOWNS
5 plays · 13 yds · 0:0079% → 78%
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+13
21.2%
A.J. Schurr pass complete to Xavier Moss for 13 yds to the Yale 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
20.2%
A.J. Schurr pass incomplete to Edgar PoeSimilar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
20.6%
A.J. Schurr pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 0:33
3RD & 10
OPP 45
0
21.0%
A.J. Schurr pass incomplete to Tony GiovannelliSimilar
Q2 0:33
4TH & 10
OPP 45
0
22.2%
Kelvin White pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YALEDrive 12INT TD
6 plays · 12 yds · 1:2823% → 16%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
23.4%
YALE Penalty, false start (Ben Carbery) to the Yale 20Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+3
23.2%
Tyler Varga run for 3 yds to the Yale 23Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+12
23.3%
Morgan Roberts pass complete to Grant Wallace for 12 yds to the Yale 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
23.8%
Tyler Varga run for 2 yds to the Yale 37Similar
Q3 13:32
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+45
15.9%
Morgan Roberts pass intercepted for a TD Jeremy Timpf return for 45 yds for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YALEDrive 13TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:2015% → 30%
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
15.4%
YALE Penalty, delay of game (Morgan Roberts) to the Yale 20Similar
Q3 13:32
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+3
15.2%
Kahlil Keys run for 3 yds to the Yale 23Similar
Q3 13:32
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
15.3%
Morgan Roberts pass complete to Kahlil Keys for no gain to the Yale 23Similar
Q3 13:32
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+15
14.9%
Holmes, Bryan punt 35 yards to the ARMY42, Jenkins, Josh return to the YALE47 (Rymiszewski, Sp;Drwal, Ross), PENALTY ARMY roughing the kicker 15 yards to the YALE38, 1ST DOWN YALE, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
16.4%
Morgan Roberts run for 8 yds to the Yale 46Similar
Q3 13:32
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+8
16.8%
Morgan Roberts pass complete to Deon Randall for 8 yds to the Army 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
17.0%
Candler Rich run for 4 yds to the Army 42Similar
Q3 13:32
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+20
17.0%
Morgan Roberts pass complete to Deon Randall for 20 yds to the Army 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
17.5%
Tyler Varga run for 7 yds to the Army 15Similar
Q3 13:32
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
14.9%
Morgan Roberts pass incomplete to Grant WallaceSimilar
Q3 13:32
2ND & 3
OPP 15
0
17.5%
Morgan Roberts pass incomplete to Grant WallaceSimilar
Q3 10:12
3RD & 3
OPP 15
+15
30.2%
Tyler Varga run for 15 yds for a TD, (Two pt pass, Logan Scott pass to Stephen Buric GOOD)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 14TD
6 plays · 67 yds · 1:3376% → 89%
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
24.5%
A.J. Schurr run for no gain to the Army 33Similar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-5
24.9%
ARMY Penalty, false start (N/A) to the Army 28Similar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 15
OWN 28
+10
25.9%
Angel Santiago run for 10 yds to the Army 38Similar
Q3 10:05
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+9
23.6%
Angel Santiago run for 9 yds to the Army 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+53
11.2%
Angel Santiago run for 53 yds for a TD, (Two pt pass, Angel Santiago pass to Kelvin White GOOD)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YALEDrive 15TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:2414% → 29%
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
13.7%
Morgan Roberts pass complete to Ross Drwal for 9 yds to the Yale 34Similar
Q3 8:32
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+5
14.4%
Morgan Roberts run for 5 yds to the Yale 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
14.7%
Morgan Roberts pass complete to Stephen Buric for 8 yds to the Yale 47Similar
Q3 8:32
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+3
15.7%
Kahlil Keys run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
50
0
15.3%
Morgan Roberts pass incomplete to Deon RandallSimilar
Q3 8:32
2ND & 10
50
+12
15.1%
Morgan Roberts pass complete to Grant Wallace for 12 yds to the Army 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
15.7%
YALE Penalty, false start (Ben Carbery) to the Army 43Similar
Q3 8:32
1ST & 15
OPP 43
0
15.1%
Morgan Roberts pass complete to Ross Drwal for no gain to the Army 43Similar
Q3 8:32
2ND & 15
OPP 43
+31
14.9%
Morgan Roberts pass complete to Deon Randall for 31 yds to the Army 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-10
16.4%
Varga, Tyler rush for 2 yards to the ARMY10 (King, Andrew;Timpf, Jeremy), PENALTY YALE holding (Stanney, Ryan) 10 yards to the ARMY22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:08
1ST & 20
OPP 22
+22
29.4%
Morgan Roberts pass complete to Ross Drwal for 22 yds for a TD, (Kyle Cazzetta KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:0077% → 75%
Q3 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-10
22.8%
Maples, Raymond rush for 9 yards to the ARMY31 (Ries, Robert), PENALTY ARMY illegal block (Poe, Edgar) 10 yards to the ARMY12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:04
1ST & 20
OWN 12
+11
23.0%
Angel Santiago pass complete to Tony Giovannelli for 11 yds to the Army 23Similar
Q3 5:04
2ND & 9
OWN 23
-1
23.0%
Matt Giachinta run for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 22Similar
Q3 5:04
3RD & 10
OWN 22
0
23.8%
Angel Santiago pass incomplete to Tony GiovannelliSimilar
Q3 5:04
4TH & 10
OWN 22
0
24.8%
Alex Tardieu punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Deon Randall at the Yale 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YALEDrive 17TD
10 plays · 73 yds · 3:0725% → 52%
Q3 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
25.1%
Kahlil Keys run for 5 yds to the Yale 32Similar
Q3 3:28
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+4
26.3%
Kahlil Keys run for 4 yds to the Yale 36Similar
Q3 3:28
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+7
26.1%
Tyler Varga run for 7 yds to the Yale 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
27.1%
Morgan Roberts pass complete to Myles Gaines for 2 yds to the Yale 45Similar
Q3 1:40
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+5
26.7%
Candler Rich run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 1:40
3RD & 3
50
0
27.1%
Morgan Roberts pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q3 1:40
4TH & 3
50
+13
25.1%
Morgan Roberts run for 13 yds to the Army 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+19
28.2%
Morgan Roberts pass complete to Grant Wallace for 19 yds to the Army 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
52.1%
Tyler Varga run for 18 yds for a TD, (Kyle Cazzetta KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 18TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:2459% → 83%
Q3 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+74
41.1%
Aaron Kemper run for 74 yds to the Yale 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
34.1%
Aaron Kemper run for no gain to the Yale 1Similar
Q4 14:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
17.3%
Angel Santiago run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YALEDrive 19FUMBLE
8 plays · 62 yds · 0:0022% → 28%
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
22.1%
Kahlil Keys run for 2 yds to the Yale 27Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-5
22.4%
YALE Penalty, false start (Khalid Cannon) to the Yale 22Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+39
21.7%
Morgan Roberts pass complete to Grant Wallace for 39 yds to the Army 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
26.6%
Candler Rich run for 3 yds to the Army 36Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+3
26.5%
Candler Rich run for 3 yds to the Army 33Similar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+17
26.2%
Tyler Varga run for 17 yds to the Army 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
28.1%
Candler Rich run for 2 yds to the Army 13 Candler Rich fumbled, forced by Tevin Long, recovered by Army Jeremy TimpfSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 20DOWNS
9 plays · 72 yds · 0:0080% → 82%
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
19.6%
Aaron Kemper run for 3 yds to the Army 16Similar
Q4 12:05
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+16
19.8%
Tony Giovannelli run for 16 yds to the Army 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
18.2%
Angel Santiago pass incomplete to Edgar PoeSimilar
Q4 12:05
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-2
18.7%
Aaron Kemper run for a loss of 2 yards to the Army 30Similar
Q4 12:05
3RD & 12
OWN 30
+46
20.4%
Angel Santiago pass complete to Larry Dixon for 46 yds to the Yale 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
15.5%
Terry Baggett run for 2 yds to the Yale 22Similar
Q4 12:05
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+5
15.5%
Tony Giovannelli run for 5 yds to the Yale 17Similar
Q4 12:05
3RD & 3
OPP 17
+2
16.1%
Larry Dixon run for 2 yds to the Yale 15Similar
Q4 12:05
4TH & 1
OPP 15
0
17.7%
Matt Giachinta run for no gain to the Yale 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YALEDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 31 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-5
20.5%
YALE Penalty, false start (Ben Carbery) to the Yale 10Similar
Q4 8:34
1ST & 15
OWN 10
+14
20.5%
Tyler Varga run for 14 yds to the Yale 24Similar
Q4 8:34
2ND & 1
OWN 24
+18
21.5%
Morgan Roberts pass complete to Sebastian Little for 18 yds to the Yale 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
23.8%
Tyler Varga run for 4 yds to the Yale 46Similar
Q4 8:34
2ND & 6
OWN 46
0
24.5%
Tyler Varga run for no gain to the Yale 46Similar
Q4 8:34
3RD & 6
OWN 46
0
22.8%
Morgan Roberts pass incomplete to Candler Rich, broken up by Andrew KingSimilar
Q4 8:34
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
20.5%
Bryan Holmes punt for 53 yds, downed at the Army 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0084% → 82%
Q4 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
16.3%
Angel Santiago run for 3 yds to the Army 4Similar
Q4 6:34
2ND & 7
OWN 4
+4
16.7%
Raymond Maples run for 4 yds to the Army 8Similar
Q4 6:34
3RD & 3
OWN 8
+2
17.4%
Raymond Maples run for 2 yds to the Army 10Similar
Q4 6:34
4TH & 1
OWN 10
0
17.8%
Alex Tardieu punt for 35 yds , Robert Ries returns for no gain to the Army 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YALEDrive 23TD
8 plays · 45 yds · 2:5325% → 64%
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
24.5%
Tyler Varga run for no gain to the Army 45Similar
Q4 4:35
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+11
22.9%
Morgan Roberts pass complete to Robert Clemons III for 11 yds to the Army 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
26.0%
Morgan Roberts run for 8 yds to the Army 26Similar
Q4 4:35
2ND & 2
OPP 26
+3
26.4%
Morgan Roberts run for 3 yds to the Army 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
26.4%
Tyler Varga run for 7 yds to the Army 16Similar
Q4 4:35
2ND & 3
OPP 16
+2
26.4%
Kahlil Keys run for 2 yds to the Army 14Similar
Q4 4:35
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+4
24.7%
Tyler Varga run for 4 yds to the Army 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
63.5%
Tyler Varga run for 10 yds for a TD, (Kyle Cazzetta KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 24MISSED FG
14 plays · 50 yds · 1:4253% → 63%
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
47.0%
Angel Santiago run for 6 yds to the Army 31Similar
Q4 1:42
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+4
44.4%
Larry Dixon run for 4 yds to the Army 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
45.2%
Angel Santiago run for 5 yds to the Army 40Similar
Q4 1:42
2ND & 5
OWN 40
-10
41.8%
Santiago, Angel rush for 7 yards to the ARMY47 (Egu, Victor), PENALTY ARMY holding (Tamasese, Lofi) 10 yards to the ARMY30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:42
2ND & 15
OWN 30
+6
47.8%
Angel Santiago pass complete to Edgar Poe for 6 yds to the Army 36Similar
Q4 1:42
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+10
47.5%
Angel Santiago pass complete to Edgar Poe for 10 yds to the Army 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+26
42.8%
Angel Santiago pass complete to Tony Giovannelli for 26 yds to the Yale 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
38.4%
Aaron Kemper run for 3 yds to the Yale 25Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+42
37.4%
Daniel Grochowski 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 25END OF GAME
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:0060% → 49%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+18
40.5%
Angel Santiago pass complete to Tony Giovannelli for 18 yds to the Yale 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
40.5%
Aaron Kemper run for 4 yds to the Yale 3Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
40.5%
Angel Santiago run for 1 yd to the Yale 2Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
42.7%
Larry Dixon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Yale 3Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
49.4%
ARMY Penalty, false start (N/A) to the Yale 8Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
51.5%
Daniel Grochowski 25 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YALEDrive 26TD
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:0065% → 87%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
64.7%
Morgan Roberts run for 7 yds to the Army 18Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+5
64.7%
Tyler Varga run for 5 yds to the Army 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+8
64.7%
Morgan Roberts run for 8 yds to the Army 5Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 2
OPP 5
+1
64.7%
Morgan Roberts run for 1 yd to the Army 4Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 4
+1
62.3%
Tyler Varga run for 1 yd to the Army 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
87.2%
Tyler Varga run for 3 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:42
Tyler Varga run for 10 yds for a TD, (Kyle Cazzetta KICK)
+38.8
TD · OT 0:00
Tyler Varga run for 3 yds for a TD
+24.9
TD · Q3 0:21
Tyler Varga run for 18 yds for a TD, (Kyle Cazzetta KICK)
+24
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com