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RICE

Rice 41 at Army 21

ARMY
2014 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2014 · Michie Stadium
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Win probability · ARMY
modelARMY aheadRICE aheadconfidence bandkey playARMY scoreRICE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:41 · Alex Tardieu punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Mario Hull at the Rice 26
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+50.5+25.30−25.3−50.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 107Home team on offense−23.7Score differential−11.3Garbage-time factor−7.3Pregame prior+2.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:37: Darik Dillard run for 15 yds for a TD, (James Farrimond KICK) — RICE win probability +7.1 pts (now 51%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:18: Driphus Jackson pass complete to Mario Hull for 5 yds for a TD, (James Farrimond KICK) — RICE win probability +13.4 pts (now 75%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:30: Driphus Jackson pass complete to Jordan Taylor for 41 yds for a TD, (James Farrimond KICK) — RICE win probability +16.8 pts (now 78%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:35: Angel Santiago run for 24 yds for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK) — ARMY win probability +10.3 pts (now 37%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:47: Driphus Jackson pass complete to Darik Dillard for 10 yds for a TD, (James Farrimond KICK) — RICE win probability +18.3 pts (now 87%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARMY made the numbers' call on 5 of 7RICE made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 10:29ARMY 4th & 9 at ARMY 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.3%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:30RICE 4th & 9 at RICE 5, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.1%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.7%
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:28ARMY 4th & 14 at ARMY 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.0%−2.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 7:17RICE 4th & 2 at ARMY 6, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.6%−1.2
    91% to make
    Punt
    48.0%−6.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:17ARMY 4th & 20 at ARMY 15, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.3%−1.8
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.0%
    average punt
  6. Q3 3:41ARMY 4th & 6 at ARMY 30, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.2%−0.6
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.8%
    average punt
  7. Q3 1:59RICE 4th & 8 at RICE 28, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.8%−1.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.2%
    average punt
  8. Q4 12:24RICE 4th & 16 at ARMY 38, up 17
    Close callPunted · 91.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.7%−0.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    91.5%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    91.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 12:14ARMY 4th & 1 at ARMY 27, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.3%−1.9
    average punt
  10. Q4 10:07RICE 4th & 1 at ARMY 15, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    91.7%−1.4
    83% to make
    Punt
    87.5%−5.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 6:48RICE 4th & 6 at ARMY 7, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.5%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.5%
    91% to make
    Punt
    91.4%−3.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:48ARMY 4th & 14 at ARMY 36, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.6%−0.5
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:22RICE 4th & 2 at ARMY 23, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    98.1%−0.3
    70% to make
    Punt
    96.4%−2.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:45ARMY 4th & 11 at ARMY 36, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%−<0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARMY made the numbers' call on 3 of 3RICE made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 10:29RICE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:34ARMY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:37RICE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:18RICE Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:10ARMY Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 12:30RICE Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 8:35ARMY Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 3:47RICE Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
RICEDrive 1TD
10 plays · 73 yds · 4:3142% → 44%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
57.8%
Jowan Davis run for no gain to the Rice 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+8
57.8%
Jowan Davis run for 8 yds to the Rice 35Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+36
57.8%
Darik Dillard run for 36 yds to the Army 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
57.8%
Darik Dillard run for no gain to the Army 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+16
57.8%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Luke Turner for 16 yds to the Army 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+10
57.8%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Jordan Taylor for 10 yds to the Army 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
57.8%
Luke Turner run for 1 yd to the Army 2Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
57.8%
Luke Turner run for no gain to the Army 2Similar
Q1 10:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
55.8%
Brandon Hamilton run for 2 yds for a TD, (James Farrimond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q1 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
56.3%
Larry Dixon run for 1 yd to the Army 36Similar
Q1 10:29
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+6
56.4%
Angel Santiago run for 6 yds to the Army 42Similar
Q1 10:29
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+6
56.5%
Terry Baggett run for 6 yds to the Army 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
56.7%
Angel Santiago run for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 47Similar
Q1 10:29
2ND & 11
OWN 47
+2
56.5%
Larry Dixon run for 2 yds to the Army 49Similar
Q1 10:29
3RD & 9
OWN 49
0
56.4%
Angel Santiago run for no gain to the Army 49Similar
Q1 10:29
4TH & 9
OWN 49
+47
56.2%
Alex Tardieu punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Bryce Callahan at the ARMY 7 RICE Penalty, illegal block (N/A) to the Rice 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+9
54.7%
Darik Dillard run for 9 yds to the Rice 13Similar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 1
OWN 13
-8
54.6%
Driphus Jackson sacked by Mike Ugenyi for a loss of 8 yards to the Rice 5Similar
Q1 6:30
3RD & 9
OWN 5
0
55.0%
Darik Dillard run for no gain to the Rice 5Similar
Q1 6:30
4TH & 9
OWN 5
+5
55.2%
James Farrimond punt for 41 yds , Josh Jenkins returns for 5 yds to the Rice 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 4TD
5 plays · 41 yds · 2:3455% → 60%
Q1 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+20
55.2%
Angel Santiago run for 20 yds to the Rice 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
55.7%
Terry Baggett run for no gain to the Rice 21Similar
Q1 4:08
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+18
55.7%
Angel Santiago pass complete to Tony Giovannelli for 18 yds to the Rice 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
55.7%
Larry Dixon run for 1 yd to the Rice 2Similar
Q1 1:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
60.0%
Larry Dixon run for 2 yds for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 5TD
10 plays · 67 yds · 3:5043% → 51%
Q1 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-4
57.0%
Jowan Davis run for a loss of 4 yards to the Rice 29Similar
Q1 1:27
2ND & 14
OWN 29
+10
57.5%
Driphus Jackson run for 10 yds to the Rice 39Similar
Q1 1:27
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+10
56.6%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Cole Hunt for 10 yds to the Rice 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
55.9%
Driphus Jackson pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+8
56.1%
Jowan Davis run for 23 yds to the ARMY 28 RICE Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Jowan Davis) to the Army 43Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 43
0
55.5%
Jowan Davis run for no gain to the Army 43Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+7
55.7%
Darik Dillard run for 7 yds to the Army 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+21
55.7%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Jordan Taylor for 21 yds to the Army 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
48.7%
Darik Dillard run for 15 yds for a TD, (James Farrimond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:0051% → 50%
Q2 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+12
50.8%
Angel Santiago run for 12 yds to the Army 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-2
51.1%
Angel Santiago run for a loss of 2 yards to the Army 26Similar
Q2 12:28
2ND & 12
OWN 26
-2
50.8%
Angel Santiago run for a loss of 2 yards to the Army 24Similar
Q2 12:28
3RD & 14
OWN 24
0
50.0%
Angel Santiago pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 12:28
4TH & 14
OWN 24
0
49.7%
Alex Tardieu punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Bryce Callahan at the Rice 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 7FG
7 plays · 55 yds · 3:0352% → 55%
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+24
48.2%
Jowan Davis run for 24 yds to the Army 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+23
47.7%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Zach Wright for 9 yds to the Army 28 for a 1ST down ARMY Penalty, personal foul (Stephen Ricciardi) to the Army 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
47.5%
Jowan Davis run for 4 yds to the Army 10Similar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+5
47.5%
Jowan Davis run for 5 yds to the Army 5 Jowan Davis fumbled, forced by James Kelly, recovered by Rice Jowan DavisSimilar
Q2 7:57
3RD & 1
OPP 5
-1
45.8%
Darik Dillard run for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 6Similar
Q2 7:17
4TH & 2
OPP 6
+23
44.6%
James Farrimond 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 0:0045% → 43%
Q2 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
44.7%
Angel Santiago run for a loss of 8 yards to the Army 17Similar
Q2 7:17
2ND & 18
OWN 17
-1
44.5%
Angel Santiago run for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 16Similar
Q2 7:17
3RD & 19
OWN 16
-1
43.7%
Angel Santiago pass complete to Larry Dixon for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 15Similar
Q2 7:17
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
43.3%
Alex Tardieu punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Bryce Callahan at the Rice 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 9TD
7 plays · 51 yds · 2:4558% → 75%
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+32
42.1%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Mario Hull for 32 yds to the Army 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-4
41.8%
Jowan Davis run for a loss of 4 yards to the Army 23Similar
Q2 5:03
2ND & 14
OPP 23
+14
41.9%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Luke Turner for 14 yds to the Army 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
41.8%
Jowan Davis run for 2 yds to the Army 7Similar
Q2 5:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
41.8%
Driphus Jackson run for 2 yds to the Army 5Similar
Q2 2:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
25.0%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Mario Hull for 5 yds for a TD, (James Farrimond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 10TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 2:0831% → 38%
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
30.5%
Angel Santiago sacked by Alex Lyons for a loss of 7 yards to the Army 18Similar
Q2 2:18
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+43
30.2%
Larry Dixon run for 43 yds to the Rice 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
32.8%
Angel Santiago pass incomplete to Terry Baggett, broken up by Malcolm HillSimilar
Q2 2:18
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+5
32.5%
Angel Santiago run for 5 yds to the Rice 34Similar
Q2 0:46
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+11
30.6%
Terry Baggett run for 11 yds to the Rice 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
31.7%
Angel Santiago run for 9 yds to the Rice 14Similar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 1
OPP 14
+7
31.3%
Santiago, Angel pass incomplete to Moss, Xavier, PENALTY RICE roughing passer (SCHANTZ, G) 7 yards to the RICE7, 1ST DOWN ARMY, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
36.8%
Angel Santiago pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 0:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
36.0%
Angel Santiago pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 0:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
38.2%
Angel Santiago pass complete to Xavier Moss for 7 yds for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
37.9%
TEAM run for no gain to the Rice 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 12FUMBLE
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:0038% → 39%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
37.8%
Larry Dixon run for 5 yds to the Army 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
38.3%
Terry Baggett run for 2 yds to the Army 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+8
37.7%
Larry Dixon run for 8 yds to the Army 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
39.1%
Angel Santiago run for no gain to the Army 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
38.7%
Angel Santiago run for no gain to the Army 41 Angel Santiago fumbled, recovered by Rice Christian CovingtonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 13TD
1 play · 41 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+41
22.0%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Jordan Taylor for 41 yds for a TD, (James Farrimond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 14TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:5525% → 37%
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
24.5%
Terry Baggett run for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 24Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+24
24.3%
Angel Santiago run for 24 yds to the Army 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
26.4%
Larry Dixon run for 1 yd to the Army 49Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+11
26.2%
Terry Baggett run for 11 yds to the Rice 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
26.8%
Larry Dixon run for 7 yds to the Rice 33Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+1
27.5%
Terry Baggett run for 1 yd to the Rice 32Similar
Q3 12:30
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+8
27.1%
Angel Santiago run for 8 yds to the Rice 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
37.4%
Angel Santiago run for 24 yds for a TD, (Daniel Grochowski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 15TD
9 plays · 62 yds · 4:4168% → 87%
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+17
32.4%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Zach Wright for 17 yds to the Army 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
32.2%
Jowan Davis run for 2 yds to the Army 43Similar
Q3 8:28
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+16
32.2%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Zach Wright for 16 yds to the Army 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-3
31.6%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Zach Wright for a loss of 3 yards to the Army 30Similar
Q3 8:28
2ND & 13
OPP 30
+25
31.8%
Driphus Jackson run for 25 yds to the Army 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-6
31.6%
Jowan Davis run for a loss of 6 yards to the Army 11Similar
Q3 8:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+1
31.7%
Driphus Jackson run for 1 yd to the Army 10Similar
Q3 3:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
13.4%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Darik Dillard for 10 yds for a TD, (James Farrimond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q3 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
16.9%
Terry Baggett run for 4 yds to the Army 30Similar
Q3 3:41
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+1
17.2%
Angel Santiago run for 1 yd to the Army 31Similar
Q3 3:41
3RD & 5
OWN 31
-1
17.0%
Angel Santiago run for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 30 Angel Santiago fumbled, forced by Graysen Schantz, recovered by Army N/ASimilar
Q3 3:41
4TH & 6
OWN 30
0
16.6%
Alex Tardieu punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Mario Hull at the Rice 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0089% → 88%
Q3 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-3
11.3%
Jowan Davis run for a loss of 3 yards to the Rice 23Similar
Q3 1:59
2ND & 13
OWN 23
0
11.5%
Driphus Jackson pass incomplete, broken up by Stephen RicciardiSimilar
Q3 1:59
3RD & 13
OWN 23
+5
11.8%
Darik Dillard run for 5 yds to the Rice 28Similar
Q3 1:59
4TH & 8
OWN 28
+62
12.0%
James Farrimond punt for 52 yds, downed at the ARMY 20 ARMY Penalty, UR (N/A) to the Army 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 18FUMBLE
5 plays · 22 yds · 0:1913% → 14%
Q3 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+7
13.0%
Angel Santiago pass complete to Terry Baggett for 7 yds to the Army 17Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 17
+6
13.0%
Larry Dixon run for 6 yds to the Army 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
13.0%
Angel Santiago run for 6 yds to the Army 29Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+7
13.7%
Terry Baggett run for 7 yds to the Army 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-4
13.8%
Tony Giovannelli run for a loss of 4 yards to the Army 32 Tony Giovannelli fumbled, forced by Bryce Callahan, recovered by Rice Gabe BakerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:5392% → 92%
Q4 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
7.6%
Driphus Jackson pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q4 13:17
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+4
7.7%
Jowan Davis run for 4 yds to the Army 28Similar
Q4 13:17
3RD & 6
OPP 28
0
7.8%
Driphus Jackson pass incomplete to Zach Wright, broken up by Hayden PierceSimilar
Q4 12:24
4TH & 6
OPP 28
-10
8.7%
FARRIMOND, Jame field goal attempt from 46 GOOD, clock 12:24, PENALTY RICE holding (WELLS, Robby) 10 yards to the ARMY38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:24
4TH & 16
OPP 38
0
8.5%
James Farrimond punt for 34 yds, downed at the Army 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 20DOWNS
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:008% → 9%
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+9
8.4%
Larry Dixon run for 9 yds to the Army 13Similar
Q4 12:14
2ND & 1
OWN 13
+5
8.6%
Larry Dixon run for 5 yds to the Army 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
8.7%
Angel Santiago pass incomplete to Xavier MossSimilar
Q4 12:14
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
8.6%
Angel Santiago run for no gain to the Army 18Similar
Q4 12:14
3RD & 10
OWN 18
+9
8.5%
Aaron Kemper run for 9 yds to the Army 27Similar
Q4 12:14
4TH & 1
OWN 27
-3
8.8%
Angel Santiago run for a loss of 3 yards to the Army 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 21FG
8 plays · 17 yds · 3:1994% → 98%
Q4 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
5.8%
Jowan Davis run for 2 yds to the Army 22Similar
Q4 10:07
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+3
5.8%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Jowan Davis for 3 yds to the Army 19Similar
Q4 10:07
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+4
5.9%
Jowan Davis run for 4 yds to the Army 15Similar
Q4 10:07
4TH & 1
OPP 15
+4
6.6%
Jowan Davis run for 4 yds to the Army 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
5.8%
Driphus Jackson pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q4 10:07
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+4
5.8%
Jowan Davis run for 4 yds to the Army 7Similar
Q4 10:07
3RD & 6
OPP 7
0
5.9%
Driphus Jackson pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q4 6:48
4TH & 6
OPP 7
+24
1.8%
James Farrimond 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 22DOWNS
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
2.1%
Angel Santiago run for 15 yds to the Army 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-4
2.2%
Larry Dixon run for a loss of 4 yards to the Army 36Similar
Q4 6:48
2ND & 14
OWN 36
0
2.1%
Aaron Kemper run for no gain to the Army 36Similar
Q4 6:48
3RD & 14
OWN 36
0
2.1%
Angel Santiago pass incomplete to Edgar Poe, broken up by V.J. BanksSimilar
Q4 6:48
4TH & 14
OWN 36
+6
2.1%
Angel Santiago pass complete to Kelvin White for 6 yds to the Army 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 23DOWNS
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
1.2%
Jowan Davis run for 1 yd to the Army 41Similar
Q4 5:22
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+8
1.2%
Jowan Davis run for 8 yds to the Army 33Similar
Q4 5:22
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+2
1.2%
Darik Dillard run for 2 yds to the Army 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+8
1.2%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Zach Wright for 8 yds to the Army 23Similar
Q4 5:22
2ND & 2
OPP 23
-1
1.2%
Jowan Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 24Similar
Q4 5:22
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+1
1.2%
Driphus Jackson run for 1 yd to the Army 23Similar
Q4 5:22
4TH & 2
OPP 23
-1
1.3%
Driphus Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 25 Driphus Jackson fumbled, recovered by Rice Darik DillardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 24END OF GAME
13 plays · 72 yds · 1:281% → 0%
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
1.0%
A.J. Schurr run for 12 yds to the Army 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
1.0%
A.J. Schurr pass incomplete to Terry BaggettSimilar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
1.0%
A.J. Schurr pass incomplete to Xavier MossSimilar
Q4 1:45
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
1.0%
A.J. Schurr run for no gain to the Army 36 A.J. Schurr fumbled, recovered by Army A.J. SchurrSimilar
Q4 1:45
4TH & 11
OWN 36
+54
0.9%
A.J. Schurr pass complete to Edgar Poe for 54 yds to the Rice 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
1.3%
A.J. Schurr run for 2 yds to the Rice 8Similar
Q4 0:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
1.0%
Schurr, A.J. pass incomplete to Poe, Edgar, PENALTY RICE pass interference (POLLARD, Ryan) 6 yards to the RICE2, 1ST DOWN ARMY, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
1.0%
Matt Giachinta run for no gain to the Rice 2Similar
Q4 0:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
0.9%
Aaron Kemper run for 1 yd to the Rice 1Similar
Q4 0:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
0.3%
A.J. Schurr run for a loss of 2 yards to the Rice 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:47
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Darik Dillard for 10 yds for a TD, (James Farrimond KICK)
-18.3
TD · Q3 12:30
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Jordan Taylor for 41 yds for a TD, (James Farrimond KICK)
-16.8
TD · Q2 2:18
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Mario Hull for 5 yds for a TD, (James Farrimond KICK)
-13.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com