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ARMY

Army 31 at Liberty 16

LIB
2021 · Week 13 · Nov 27, 2021 · Williams Stadium (VA)
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Win probability · LIB
modelLIB aheadARMY aheadconfidence bandkey playLIB scoreARMY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 2:17 · Zach Harding punt for 54 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 128Home team on offense−39.8Score differential−22.3Garbage-time factor−8.3Pregame prior+3.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−6.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:17: Christian Anderson pass complete to Braheam Murphy for 34 yds for a TD, (Cole Talley KICK) — ARMY win probability +7.3 pts (now 49%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:31: Jakobi Buchanan run for 19 yds for a TD, (Cole Talley KICK) — ARMY win probability +13.7 pts (now 63%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 6:48: Jakobi Buchanan run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cole Talley KICK) — ARMY win probability +8.6 pts (now 76%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:45: Jakobi Buchanan run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cole Talley KICK) — ARMY win probability +13.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:19: Malik Willis run for 7 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed) — LIB win probability +13.5 pts (now 19%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LIB made the numbers' call on 6 of 9ARMY made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 12:35LIB 4th & 10 at ARMY 49, tied
    Close callWent for it · 60.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.7%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    60.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:48ARMY 4th & 9 at LIB 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.5%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.7%
    89% to make
    Punt
    38.4%−1.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:04LIB 4th & 6 at LIB 42, down 3
    Close callWent for it · 58.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.7%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    58.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:04ARMY 4th & 1 at LIB 36, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    40.0%−1.0
    42% to make
    Punt
    39.9%−1.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:04LIB 4th & 7 at ARMY 40, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    51.2%−0.4
    34% to make
    Punt
    51.3%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:39LIB 4th & 5 at ARMY 45, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    38.6%−1.4
    25% to make
    Punt
    39.8%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:41LIB 4th & 2 at ARMY 47, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    29.6%−1.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:20LIB 4th & 9 at ARMY 17, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.9%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.8%
    80% to make
    Punt
    20.3%−6.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:03ARMY 4th & 10 at ARMY 37, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.6%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.3%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:10LIB 4th & 17 at LIB 8, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.4%−2.8
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:17ARMY 4th & 4 at ARMY 31, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.2%−0.4
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.6%
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00ARMY 4th & 1 at ARMY 45, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    86.8%−2.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:20ARMY 4th & 13 at ARMY 45, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.5%−1.5
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:17LIB 4th & 8 at LIB 48, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.0%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.9%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:27LIB 4th & 10 at ARMY 25, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.9%−0.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    6.7%
    66% to make
    Punt
    3.7%−3.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:31ARMY 4th & 2 at LIB 43, up 15
    Close callPunted · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    97.4%−0.4
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.4%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LIB made the numbers' call on 1 of 2ARMY made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 0:17ARMY Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:31ARMY Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:48ARMY Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:45ARMY Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:35LIB Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:19LIB Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    13.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    13.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LIBDrive 1DOWNS
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:2061% → 61%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+19
61.0%
Malik Willis run for 19 yds to the Army 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
61.0%
Malik Willis run for 2 yds to the Army 47Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 8
OPP 47
-2
61.0%
Malik Willis sacked for a loss of 2 yards to the Army 49Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 10
OPP 49
0
61.0%
Malik Willis pass complete to Demario Douglas for no gain to the Army 49Similar
Q1 12:35
4TH & 10
OPP 49
0
61.0%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to Kevin ShaaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 2FG
14 plays · 42 yds · 5:4739% → 40%
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+17
60.7%
Tyrell Robinson run for 17 yds to the Liber 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
60.7%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 3 yds to the Liber 31Similar
Q1 12:35
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+5
60.6%
Tyrell Robinson run for 5 yds to the Liber 26Similar
Q1 12:35
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+3
60.7%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 3 yds to the Liber 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
60.6%
Cade Barnard run for 2 yds to the Liber 21Similar
Q1 12:35
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+3
60.6%
Christian Anderson run for 3 yds to the Liber 18Similar
Q1 12:35
3RD & 5
OPP 18
+8
60.7%
Brandon Walters run for 8 yds to the Liber 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
59.8%
Christian Anderson run for 6 yds to the Liber 4Similar
Q1 8:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
59.8%
Tyson Riley run for 1 yd to the Liber 3Similar
Q1 8:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+6
60.0%
Christian Anderson run for 6 yds to the Liber 9Similar
Q1 6:48
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
59.7%
Cole Talley 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 3INT
9 plays · 16 yds · 3:3958% → 57%
Q1 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
58.3%
Malik Willis pass complete to Noah Frith for 2 yds to the Liber 28Similar
Q1 6:43
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+1
58.3%
Malik Willis run for 1 yd to the Liber 29Similar
Q1 6:43
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+9
58.0%
Malik Willis pass complete to CJ Daniels for 9 yds to the Liber 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
58.7%
Joshua Mack run for 2 yds to the Liber 40Similar
Q1 6:43
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+3
58.9%
Malik Willis run for 3 yds to the Liber 43Similar
Q1 6:43
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+4
58.7%
Malik Willis pass complete to CJ Daniels for 4 yds to the Liber 47Similar
Q1 6:43
4TH & 1
OWN 47
-5
58.7%
PENALTY LIB False Start (Sargeant,Thomas) 5 yards from LIB47 to LIB42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:04
4TH & 6
OWN 42
0
57.1%
Max Morgan pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 4TD
6 plays · 45 yds · 2:4742% → 49%
Q1 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
57.9%
Tyson Riley run for 5 yds to the Liber 40Similar
Q1 3:04
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+2
57.7%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 2 yds to the Liber 38Similar
Q1 3:04
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+2
57.8%
Christian Anderson run for 2 yds to the Liber 36Similar
Q1 3:04
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+2
58.6%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 2 yds to the Liber 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
51.3%
Christian Anderson pass complete to Braheam Murphy for 34 yds for a TD, (Cole Talley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 5DOWNS
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:5650% → 50%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+32
50.3%
Malik Willis pass complete to CJ Daniels for 32 yds to the Army 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
51.7%
Joshua Mack run for 3 yds to the Army 40Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 40
0
51.6%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to Jerome JacksonSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 40
0
51.6%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to Joshua MackSimilar
Q2 14:04
4TH & 7
OPP 40
-16
50.0%
Malik Willis sacked by Arik Smith for a loss of 16 yards to the Liber 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 6TD
8 plays · 44 yds · 2:3349% → 63%
Q2 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
50.6%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 2 yds to the Liber 42Similar
Q2 14:04
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+13
50.7%
Brandon Walters run for 13 yds to the Liber 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
50.3%
Tyhier Tyler run for 1 yd to the Liber 28Similar
Q2 14:04
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+9
50.5%
Tyhier Tyler run for 9 yds to the Liber 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:04
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+9
50.5%
Tyhier Tyler run for 9 yds to the Liber 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
36.7%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 19 yds for a TD, (Cole Talley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 7DOWNS
10 plays · 34 yds · 2:4643% → 34%
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
43.0%
Joshua Mack run for 2 yds to the Liber 23Similar
Q2 11:25
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+14
42.9%
Malik Willis pass complete to CJ Daniels for 14 yds to the Liber 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
43.3%
Malik Willis run for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
50
+4
44.1%
Malik Willis pass complete to Kevin Shaa for 4 yds to the Army 46Similar
Q2 11:25
2ND & 6
OPP 46
-5
44.0%
PENALTY LIB False Start 5 yards from AWP46 to LIB49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:25
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+6
43.9%
Malik Willis run for 6 yds to the Army 45Similar
Q2 11:25
3RD & 5
OPP 45
0
43.9%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to Joshua MackSimilar
Q2 11:25
3RD & 5
OPP 45
0
43.9%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to Joshua MackSimilar
Q2 8:39
4TH & 5
OPP 45
0
33.7%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to Johnny HuntleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 8TD
7 plays · 55 yds · 1:5169% → 76%
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
31.0%
Christian Anderson run for 1 yd to the Army 46Similar
Q2 8:39
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+51
31.1%
Christian Anderson pass complete to Tyrell Robinson for 51 yds to the Liber 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
32.8%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 2 yds to the Liber 1Similar
Q2 8:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
32.8%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 2 yds to the Liber 1Similar
Q2 6:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
24.1%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cole Talley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 9FG
13 plays · 38 yds · 3:2124% → 20%
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
23.8%
Malik Willis run for 2 yds to the Liber 43Similar
Q2 6:41
2ND & 12
OWN 43
+9
23.1%
Malik Willis pass complete to Trevor Hobbs for 9 yds to the Army 48Similar
Q2 6:41
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+1
22.1%
Malik Willis run for 1 yd to the Army 47Similar
Q2 6:41
4TH & 2
OPP 47
+11
21.9%
Malik Willis pass complete to CJ Daniels for 11 yds to the Army 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+18
24.3%
Malik Willis pass complete to CJ Daniels for 18 yds to the Army 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
25.0%
T.J. Green run for 5 yds to the Army 13Similar
Q2 6:41
2ND & 5
OPP 13
0
23.0%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to Kevin ShaaSimilar
Q2 4:06
3RD & 5
OPP 13
-4
23.8%
Malik Willis sacked by Nolan Cockrill for a loss of 4 yards to the Army 17Similar
Q2 4:06
3RD & 5
OPP 13
-4
23.8%
Malik Willis sacked by Nolan Cockrill for a loss of 4 yards to the Army 17Similar
Q2 3:20
4TH & 9
OPP 17
+36
19.6%
Brayden Beck 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 2:1778% → 87%
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
21.6%
Tyhier Tyler run for 5 yds to the Army 20Similar
Q2 3:20
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+17
21.8%
Christian Anderson pass complete to Isaiah Alston for 17 yds to the Army 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
21.1%
Christian Anderson run for 4 yds to the Army 41Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 6
OWN 41
0
13.6%
Christian Anderson run for no gain to the Army 41Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+4
13.9%
Christian Anderson run for 4 yds to the Army 37Similar
Q2 1:03
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
12.6%
Zach Harding punt for 48 yds , Demario Douglas returns for no gain to the Liber 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:5313% → 13%
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
13.2%
Malik Willis pass complete to CJ Daniels for 3 yds to the Liber 18Similar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 7
OWN 18
-10
12.8%
Malik Willis sacked by Jaylen Jacobs for a loss of 10 yards to the Liber 8Similar
Q2 1:03
3RD & 17
OWN 8
0
13.5%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to CJ DanielsSimilar
Q2 1:03
3RD & 17
OWN 8
0
13.5%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to CJ DanielsSimilar
Q2 0:10
4TH & 17
OWN 8
0
13.1%
Aidan Alves punt for 66 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Army 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
11.1%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the Army 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 13TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 8:1583% → 97%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
17.4%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 5 yds to the Army 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
17.3%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 3 yds to the Army 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
18.1%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 3 yds to the Army 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
17.0%
Tyson Riley run for 4 yds to the Army 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+2
16.8%
Cade Barnard run for 2 yds to the Army 42Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+5
17.3%
Tyhier Tyler run for 5 yds to the Army 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
16.7%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 11 yds to the Liber 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
16.5%
Tyhier Tyler run for 5 yds to the Liber 37Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+4
16.2%
Cade Barnard run for 4 yds to the Liber 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+4
16.6%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 4 yds to the Liber 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+16
16.1%
Cade Barnard run for 16 yds to the Liber 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
16.1%
Cade Barnard run for 2 yds to the Liber 11Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+10
16.1%
Tyhier Tyler run for 10 yds to the Liber 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
2.8%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cole Talley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 14TD
12 plays · 73 yds · 2:042% → 9%
Q3 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+17
2.4%
Joshua Mack run for 17 yds to the Liber 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
2.5%
Joshua Mack run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 6:39
2ND & 4
50
0
2.4%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to Jerome JacksonSimilar
Q3 6:39
3RD & 4
50
+11
2.4%
Malik Willis pass complete to Demario Douglas for 11 yds to the Army 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
2.6%
Malik Willis pass complete to Demario Douglas for 1 yd to the Army 38Similar
Q3 6:39
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+9
2.4%
Joshua Mack run for 9 yds to the Army 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
2.7%
Willis,Malik pass incomplete to Daniels,CJ broken up by Broughton,Marquel PENALTY AWP Pass Interference (Adkins,Anthony) 15 yards from AWP29 to AWP14, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
2.7%
Willis,Malik pass incomplete to Daniels,CJ broken up by Broughton,Marquel PENALTY AWP Pass Interference (Adkins,Anthony) 15 yards from AWP29 to AWP14, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
9.2%
Malik Willis pass complete to Noah Frith for 14 yds for a TD, (Brayden Beck KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 2:1894% → 95%
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
5.6%
Tyhier Tyler run for 1 yd to the Army 26Similar
Q3 4:35
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
5.6%
Tyhier Tyler run for 2 yds to the Army 28Similar
Q3 4:35
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+3
5.7%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 3 yds to the Army 31Similar
Q3 4:35
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+3
5.7%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 3 yds to the Army 31Similar
Q3 2:17
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
4.7%
Zach Harding punt for 54 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 16TD
8 plays · 85 yds · 1:586% → 19%
Q3 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-3
5.6%
Malik Willis sacked by Leo Lowin for a loss of 3 yards to the Liber 12Similar
Q3 2:17
2ND & 13
OWN 12
+41
5.6%
Malik Willis pass complete to Kevin Shaa for 41 yds to the Army 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
6.1%
Malik Willis pass complete to Demario Douglas for 15 yds to the Army 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
6.6%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to Joshua MackSimilar
Q3 2:17
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+26
6.5%
Malik Willis pass complete to Brody Brumm for 26 yds to the Army 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
6.1%
Joshua Mack run for 1 yd to the Army 7Similar
Q3 0:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
5.6%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to Noah FrithSimilar
Q3 0:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
19.0%
Malik Willis run for 7 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 17PUNT
13 plays · 20 yds · 5:5989% → 93%
Q3 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
11.3%
PENALTY LIB Offside (Boti,Chris) 5 yards from AWP25 to AWP30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+2
10.5%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 2 yds to the Army 32Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
10.5%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 2 yds to the Army 34Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
10.8%
Cade Barnard run for 2 yds to the Army 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
10.3%
Tyhier Tyler run for 4 yds to the Army 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+2
10.1%
Cade Barnard run for 2 yds to the Army 42Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+3
10.2%
Braheam Murphy run for 3 yds to the Army 45Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+3
11.0%
Tyson Riley run for 3 yds to the Army 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-6
9.9%
Tyhier Tyler sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the Army 42Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 16
OWN 42
+3
10.6%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 3 yds to the Army 45Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 45
0
10.5%
Christian Anderson pass incomplete to Isaiah AlstonSimilar
Q4 9:20
4TH & 13
OWN 45
0
7.0%
Zach Harding punt for 54 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 18DOWNS
20 plays · 74 yds · 3:533% → 2%
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
3.1%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to DJ StubbsSimilar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+15
3.1%
Malik Willis pass complete to Noah Frith for 15 yds to the Liber 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
3.2%
T.J. Green run for 1 yd to the Liber 15Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 11
OWN 15
-3
3.2%
Malik Willis run for 7 yds to the Liber 22 LIBERTY Penalty, Offensive Holding (Tristan Schultz) to the Liber 10Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 16
OWN 10
+7
3.3%
Malik Willis pass complete to Kevin Shaa for 7 yds to the Liber 17Similar
Q4 9:20
3RD & 9
OWN 17
+5
3.2%
PENALTY AWP Offside (Carter II,Andre) 5 yards from LIB17 to LIB22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:20
3RD & 4
OWN 22
+24
3.4%
Malik Willis pass complete to Kevin Shaa for 24 yds to the Liber 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
3.5%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to Johnny HuntleySimilar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+2
3.5%
Malik Willis pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 2 yds to the Liber 48Similar
Q4 9:20
3RD & 8
OWN 48
0
3.5%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to Noah FrithSimilar
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
3.5%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to Johnny HuntleySimilar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+2
3.5%
Malik Willis pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 2 yds to the Liber 48Similar
Q4 9:20
3RD & 8
OWN 48
0
3.5%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to Noah FrithSimilar
Q4 6:17
4TH & 8
OWN 48
+27
2.3%
Malik Willis pass complete to CJ Daniels for 27 yds to the Army 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
3.0%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to CJ DanielsSimilar
Q4 6:17
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
2.7%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to Kevin ShaaSimilar
Q4 6:17
3RD & 10
OPP 25
0
2.6%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to Demario DouglasSimilar
Q4 5:27
4TH & 10
OPP 25
0
2.4%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to Noah FrithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 19PUNT
13 plays · 32 yds · 3:5696% → 99%
Q4 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
3.8%
Tyhier Tyler run for 8 yds to the Army 33Similar
Q4 5:27
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
3.7%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 1 yd to the Army 34Similar
Q4 5:27
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
3.6%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 3 yds to the Army 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:27
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
3.6%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 3 yds to the Army 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
2.1%
Tyson Riley run for 3 yds to the Army 40Similar
Q4 3:52
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+9
2.0%
Tyhier Tyler run for 9 yds to the Army 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
1.9%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 5 yds to the Liber 46Similar
Q4 3:52
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+3
1.9%
Tyhier Tyler run for 3 yds to the Liber 43Similar
Q4 3:52
3RD & 2
OPP 43
0
1.8%
Jakobi Buchanan run for no gain to the Liber 43Similar
Q4 1:31
4TH & 2
OPP 43
0
1.1%
Zach Harding punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 20INT
10 plays · 23 yds · 1:111% → 1%
Q4 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
0.9%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to Joshua MackSimilar
Q4 1:31
2ND & 10
OWN 9
0
0.8%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to Kevin ShaaSimilar
Q4 1:31
3RD & 10
OWN 9
+17
0.8%
Malik Willis run for 17 yds to the Liber 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
0.8%
Malik Willis pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 9 yds to the Liber 35Similar
Q4 1:31
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+7
0.9%
Malik Willis pass complete to Joshua Mack for 7 yds to the Liber 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
0.8%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to Joshua MackSimilar
Q4 1:31
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
0.8%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to CJ DanielsSimilar
Q4 0:32
3RD & 10
OWN 42
-10
0.7%
Willis,Malik pass complete to Douglas,Demario for 58 yards to the AWP00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 00:32 PENALTY LIB Holding (Jackson,Jerome) 10 yards from LIB42 to LIB32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:20
3RD & 20
OWN 32
0
0.8%
Malik Willis pass interceptedSimilar
Q4 0:20
3RD & 20
OWN 32
-19
0.8%
LIBERTY Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct Personal Foul (Malik Willis) to the Liber 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 21END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-2
0.8%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the Liber 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 11:31
Jakobi Buchanan run for 19 yds for a TD, (Cole Talley KICK)
-13.7
TD · Q3 0:19
Malik Willis run for 7 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+13.5
TD · Q3 6:45
Jakobi Buchanan run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cole Talley KICK)
-13.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com