Try the model
MASS

Massachusetts 17 at Army 33

ARMY
2021 · Week 12 · Nov 20, 2021 · Michie Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ARMY
modelARMY aheadMASS aheadconfidence bandkey playARMY scoreMASS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+2.5ARMY 98.7%Tyhier Tyler run for 25 yds for a TD(Cole Talley KICK)AWAY 17 - HOME 33 · Q4 2:38
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:38 · Tyhier Tyler run for 25 yds for a TD (Cole Talley KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+50.0+25.00−25.0−50.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 140Pregame prior+5.6Home team on offense+29.6Garbage-time factor+14.3Score differential+13.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.4Blowout margin−1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:30: Wilson Catoe run for 3 yds for a TD (Christian Anderson pass to Chris Cameron for Two-Point Conversion) — ARMY win probability +0.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:41: Garrett Dzuro pass complete to Jacob Orlando for 5 yds for a TD ARMY Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined (Cameron Carson KICK) — MASS win probability +1.1 pts (now 3%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:52: Josiah Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD (Cameron Carson KICK) — MASS win probability +12.4 pts (now 20%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:22: Jakobi Buchanan run for 2 yds for a TD (Cole Talley KICK) — ARMY win probability +5.6 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:38: Tyhier Tyler run for 25 yds for a TD (Cole Talley KICK) — ARMY win probability +2.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARMY made the numbers' call on 7 of 9MASS made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 15:00MASS 4th & 7 at MASS 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.8%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:23ARMY 4th & 4 at ARMY 41, tied
    Close callWent for it · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.0%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    98.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:43MASS 4th & 10 at ARMY 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.5%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.6%
    60% to make
    Punt
    2.2%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:18ARMY 4th & 1 at MASS 39, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    96.5%−0.2
    36% to make
    Punt
    96.5%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:30MASS 4th & 4 at ARMY 26, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    3.0%−<0.1
    64% to make
    Punt
    2.6%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:55ARMY 4th & 2 at MASS 10, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.2%
    55% to convert
    Field goal
    97.0%−0.2
    88% to make
    Punt
    96.1%−1.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:41MASS 4th & 5 at ARMY 5, down 13
    Close callWent for it · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.1%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    4.2%
    92% to make
    Punt
    3.1%−1.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:41ARMY 4th & 10 at ARMY 40, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.0%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:00ARMY 4th & 10 at MASS 16, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.9%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.2%
    81% to make
    Punt
    91.1%−2.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00ARMY 4th & 17 at MASS 33, up 9
    Close callWent for it · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.4%−0.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    93.9%
    49% to make
    Punt
    93.8%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:37MASS 4th & 9 at MASS 34, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.4%−0.7
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:54ARMY 4th & 12 at ARMY 17, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.7%−1.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:22ARMY 4th & 1 at MASS 2, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.6%
    60% to convert
    Field goal
    68.6%−8.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    49.2%−27.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:13ARMY 4th & 1 at ARMY 46, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    91.6%−1.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARMY made the numbers' call on 0 of 4MASS made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 7:48ARMY Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    97.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    97.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:30ARMY Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    96.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    96.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:41MASS Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 13:52MASS Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 7:22ARMY Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.9%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.9%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:38ARMY Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.6%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MASSDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
99.6%
Ellis Merriweather run for a loss of 1 yard to the UMass 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+2
99.6%
Garrett Dzuro pass complete to Zamar Wise for 2 yds to the UMass 26Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-3
99.6%
Garrett Dzuro sacked by Andre Carter II for a loss of 3 yards to the UMass 23Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+5
99.6%
Georgopoulos, G punt 48 yards to the ARMY29, ROBINSON,T. return to the UMASS47 (Helm, Dorian), PENALTY ARMY offside defense 5 yards to the UMASS28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+3
99.6%
George Georgopoulos punt for 40 yds , Tyrell Robinson returns for 3 yds to the Army 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 2FUMBLE
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q1 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
99.5%
Cade Barnard run for 6 yds to the Army 41Similar
Q1 12:23
2ND & 4
OWN 41
-11
99.5%
Christian Anderson run for 4 yds to the Army 45 ARMY Penalty, illegal block (-15 Yards) to the Army 30Similar
Q1 12:23
2ND & 15
OWN 30
+9
99.5%
Christian Anderson run for 9 yds to the Army 39Similar
Q1 12:23
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+2
99.5%
Tyrell Robinson run for 2 yds to the Army 41Similar
Q1 12:23
4TH & 4
OWN 41
-15
99.5%
Zach Harding run for a loss of 15 yards to the Army 28 Zach Harding fumbled, recovered by UMass Raiheem OlalekanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 3FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:271% → 1%
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-2
99.4%
Garrett Dzuro run for a loss of 2 yards to the Army 37 Garrett Dzuro fumbled, recovered by UMassSimilar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 19
OPP 37
+9
99.4%
Ellis Merriweather run for 9 yds to the Army 28Similar
Q1 10:10
3RD & 10
OPP 28
0
99.4%
Garrett Dzuro pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:43
4TH & 10
OPP 28
+45
99.3%
Cameron Carson 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 4TD
3 plays · 89 yds · 0:4899% → 99%
Q1 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
99.3%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 2 yds to the Army 13Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+87
99.3%
Tyrell Robinson run for 87 yds for a TD (Cade Barnard pass to Joshua Lingenfelter for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 5FUMBLE
8 plays · 27 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
99.3%
Josiah Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the UMass 23Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+4
99.3%
Garrett Dzuro pass complete to Onuma Dieke for 4 yds to the UMass 27Similar
Q1 7:48
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+12
99.3%
Garrett Dzuro pass complete to Eric Collins for 12 yds to the UMass 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
99.3%
Ellis Merriweather run for 7 yds to the UMass 46Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+4
99.3%
Zamar Wise run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
50
+2
99.3%
Ellis Merriweather run for 2 yds to the Army 48Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+4
99.3%
Garrett Dzuro sacked by Andre Carter II for a loss of 4 yards to the UMass 48 Garrett Dzuro fumbled, recovered by Army Cedrick Cunningham Jr. , return for 0 yards , return for 4 yds to the UMass 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 6TD
10 plays · 52 yds · 4:4899% → 99%
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
99.0%
Christian Anderson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:18
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+2
99.0%
Christian Anderson run for 2 yds to the UMass 46Similar
Q1 3:18
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+7
99.0%
A.J. Howard run for 7 yds to the UMass 39Similar
Q1 3:18
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+6
99.0%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 6 yds to the UMass 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
99.0%
Tyson Riley run for 7 yds to the UMass 26Similar
Q1 3:18
2ND & 3
OPP 26
+1
99.0%
Tyson Riley run for 1 yd to the UMass 25Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+8
98.7%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 8 yds to the UMass 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
98.8%
Tyhier Tyler run for no gain to the UMass 17Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+14
98.8%
Tyrell Robinson run for 14 yds to the UMass 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.1%
Wilson Catoe run for 3 yds for a TD (Christian Anderson pass to Chris Cameron for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 7INT
6 plays · 49 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+43
99.0%
Josiah Johnson run for 43 yds to the Army 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
98.9%
Ellis Merriweather run for 1 yd to the Army 31Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 9
OPP 31
0
98.9%
Garrett Dzuro pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:30
3RD & 9
OPP 31
+5
98.9%
Garrett Dzuro pass complete to Ellis Merriweather for 5 yds to the Army 26Similar
Q2 13:30
4TH & 4
OPP 26
-30
99.0%
Garrett Dzuro pass intercepted Jaylen Jacobs return for 30 yds to the UMass 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 8DOWNS
9 plays · 39 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
99.0%
Christian Anderson run for 5 yds to the UMass 43Similar
Q2 10:55
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+3
99.0%
Cade Barnard run for 3 yds to the UMass 40Similar
Q2 10:55
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+8
99.0%
Christian Anderson run for 8 yds to the UMass 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
99.0%
Anthony Adkins run for 7 yds to the UMass 25Similar
Q2 10:55
2ND & 3
OPP 25
+7
99.0%
Anthony Adkins run for 7 yds to the UMass 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
99.0%
Tyson Riley run for 6 yds to the UMass 12Similar
Q2 10:55
2ND & 4
OPP 12
0
99.0%
Christian Anderson run for no gain to the UMass 12Similar
Q2 10:55
3RD & 4
OPP 12
+2
99.0%
Tyhier Tyler run for 2 yds to the UMass 10Similar
Q2 10:55
4TH & 2
OPP 10
+1
99.0%
Tyrell Robinson run for 1 yd to the UMass 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 9TD
15 plays · 91 yds · 4:391% → 3%
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-1
98.6%
Ellis Merriweather run for a loss of 1 yard to the UMass 8Similar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 11
OWN 8
-2
98.6%
Garrett Dzuro sacked by Kwabena Bonsu for a loss of 2 yards to the UMass 6Similar
Q2 6:20
3RD & 13
OWN 6
+35
98.6%
Ellis Merriweather run for 35 yds to the UMass 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
98.5%
Ellis Merriweather run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 1
50
+5
98.4%
Garrett Dzuro run for 5 yds to the Army 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+38
98.4%
Garrett Dzuro pass complete to Tray Pettway for 38 yds to the Army 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
98.3%
Ellis Merriweather run for 6 yds to the Army 1Similar
Q2 1:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
97.6%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Army 6Similar
Q2 1:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
97.6%
Garrett Dzuro run for 1 yd to the Army 5Similar
Q2 1:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
97.7%
Tray Pettway run for no gain to the Army 5Similar
Q2 1:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
96.6%
Garrett Dzuro pass complete to Jacob Orlando for 5 yds for a TD ARMY Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined (Cameron Carson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
96.9%
Christian Anderson pass complete to Isaiah Alston for 15 yds to the Army 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
97.1%
Christian Anderson pass incomplete to Tyrell RobinsonSimilar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
97.0%
Christian Anderson pass incomplete to Isaiah Alston, broken up by Josh WallaceSimilar
Q2 1:41
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
96.9%
Christian Anderson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:41
4TH & 10
OWN 40
+13
96.7%
Zach Harding punt for 48 yds , Eric Collins returns for 13 yds to the UMass 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 11FUMBLE
4 plays · 18 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.9%
Garrett Dzuro pass incomplete to Ellis MerriweatherSimilar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
96.9%
Ellis Merriweather run for 6 yds to the UMass 31Similar
Q2 1:02
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+4
96.9%
Garrett Dzuro run for 4 yds to the UMass 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-7
96.8%
Garrett Dzuro sacked by Andre Carter II for a loss of 7 yards to the UMass 43 Garrett Dzuro fumbled, recovered by Army Nolan Cockrill , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 12FG
5 plays · 27 yds · 0:2097% → 97%
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+27
97.0%
Christian Anderson pass complete to Isaiah Alston for 27 yds to the UMass 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
97.1%
Christian Anderson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
97.1%
Christian Anderson pass incomplete to Isaiah Alston, broken up by Josh WallaceSimilar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 10
OPP 16
0
96.9%
Christian Anderson pass incomplete to Isaiah Alston, broken up by Josh WallaceSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 10
OPP 16
+33
97.3%
Cole Talley 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 13DOWNS
15 plays · 42 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
97.2%
Tyrell Robinson run for 14 yds to the Army 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
97.4%
Tyson Riley run for 4 yds to the Army 43Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 43
0
97.4%
Christian Anderson pass incomplete to Brandon WaltersSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+7
97.3%
Tyrell Robinson run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+6
97.4%
Tyrell Robinson run for 6 yds to the UMass 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+2
97.5%
Anthony Adkins run for 2 yds to the UMass 42Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+4
97.4%
Tyson Riley run for 4 yds to the UMass 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
97.5%
Christian Anderson run for 2 yds to the UMass 36Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+10
97.5%
Christian Anderson run for 10 yds to the UMass 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
97.5%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 3 yds to the UMass 23Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+4
97.5%
Tyrell Robinson run for 4 yds to the UMass 19Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 19
-14
97.4%
Christian Anderson run for 1 yd to the UMass 18 ARMY Penalty, illegal block (Mason Kolinchak) to the UMass 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 17
OPP 33
0
97.2%
Christian Anderson pass incomplete to Reikan DonaldsonSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 17
OPP 33
0
97.0%
Christian Anderson pass incomplete to Isaiah Alston, broken up by Josh WallaceSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
95.8%
Garrett Dzuro pass incomplete to Tray PettwaySimilar
Q3 8:37
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-6
95.9%
Zamar Wise run for a loss of 6 yards to the UMass 27Similar
Q3 8:37
3RD & 16
OWN 27
+12
96.2%
Ellis Merriweather run for 12 yds to the UMass 39Similar
Q3 8:37
4TH & 4
OWN 39
-5
96.0%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, delay of game (Avien Peah) to the UMass 34Similar
Q3 8:37
4TH & 9
OWN 34
0
96.2%
George Georgopoulos punt for 47 yds, downed at the Army 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
96.0%
Tyhier Tyler run for 2 yds to the Army 21Similar
Q3 6:54
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+2
95.9%
Tyrell Robinson run for 2 yds to the Army 23Similar
Q3 6:54
3RD & 6
OWN 23
-6
95.7%
Christian Anderson sacked by Gerrell Johnson for a loss of 6 yards to the Army 17Similar
Q3 6:54
4TH & 12
OWN 17
0
95.5%
Zach Harding punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UMass 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 16TD
11 plays · 55 yds · 6:045% → 20%
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
95.3%
Ellis Merriweather run for 3 yds to the UMass 48Similar
Q3 4:56
2ND & 7
OWN 48
-9
95.1%
Garrett Dzuro run for 1 yd to the UMass 49 MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, Offensive holding (Avien Peah) to the UMass 39Similar
Q3 4:56
2ND & 16
OWN 39
0
95.6%
Ellis Merriweather run for no gain to the UMass 39Similar
Q3 4:56
3RD & 16
OWN 39
+17
95.8%
Ellis Merriweather run for 17 yds to the Army 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
95.0%
Garrett Dzuro run for 4 yds to the Army 40Similar
Q3 4:56
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+12
94.8%
Garrett Dzuro pass complete to Onuma Dieke for 12 yds to the Army 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
94.5%
Ellis Merriweather run for 1 yd to the Army 27Similar
Q3 4:56
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+3
94.6%
Ellis Merriweather run for 3 yds to the Army 24Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+22
93.1%
Garrett Dzuro run for 22 yds to the Army 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
92.6%
Ellis Merriweather run for 1 yd to the Army 1Similar
Q4 13:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
80.1%
Josiah Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD (Cameron Carson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 17TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 6:3085% → 93%
Q4 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
85.4%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 26 yds to the UMass 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
87.6%
Anthony Adkins run for 9 yds to the UMass 40Similar
Q4 13:52
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+3
87.8%
Tyson Riley run for 3 yds to the UMass 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
87.8%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 4 yds to the UMass 33Similar
Q4 13:52
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+5
88.3%
Christian Anderson run for 5 yds to the UMass 28Similar
Q4 13:52
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+4
87.5%
Anthony Adkins run for 4 yds to the UMass 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+13
88.3%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 13 yds to the UMass 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
88.3%
Tyson Riley run for 5 yds to the UMass 6Similar
Q4 13:52
2ND & 5
OPP 6
0
88.3%
Anthony Adkins run for no gain to the UMass 6Similar
Q4 13:52
3RD & 5
OPP 6
+4
87.5%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 4 yds to the UMass 2Similar
Q4 7:22
4TH & 1
OPP 2
+2
93.1%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 2 yds for a TD (Cole Talley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 18INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.5%
Garrett Dzuro pass intercepted Cedrick Cunningham Jr. return for no gain to the Army 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 19TD
10 plays · 63 yds · 4:3594% → 99%
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
94.3%
Tyhier Tyler run for 6 yds to the Army 43Similar
Q4 7:13
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+1
94.6%
Anthony Adkins run for 1 yd to the Army 44Similar
Q4 7:13
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+2
94.2%
Tyhier Tyler run for 2 yds to the Army 46Similar
Q4 7:13
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+5
93.7%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 5 yds to the UMass 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
94.7%
Tyhier Tyler run for 3 yds to the UMass 46Similar
Q4 7:13
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+6
94.7%
Tyhier Tyler run for 6 yds to the UMass 40Similar
Q4 7:13
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+11
94.5%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 11 yds to the UMass 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
94.8%
Tyhier Tyler run for 4 yds to the UMass 25Similar
Q4 2:38
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+25
98.7%
Tyhier Tyler run for 25 yds for a TD (Cole Talley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 20END OF GAME
7 plays · 23 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
98.0%
Chisari, Jared rush for 3 yards to the UMASS34 (COCKRILL, Nolan), PENALTY ARMY offside defense (CARTER, Andre) 5 yards to the UMASS36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:33
1ST & 5
OWN 36
+6
97.9%
Jared Chisari run for 6 yds to the UMass 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
97.9%
Jared Chisari run for 5 yds to the UMass 47Similar
Q4 2:33
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+6
97.9%
Jared Chisari run for 6 yds to the Army 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-4
97.9%
Jared Chisari run for a loss of 4 yards to the UMass 49Similar
Q4 2:33
2ND & 14
OWN 49
+5
98.0%
Cyrus Bonsu run for 5 yds to the Army 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:52
Josiah Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD (Cameron Carson KICK)
-12.4
TD · Q4 7:22
Jakobi Buchanan run for 2 yds for a TD (Cole Talley KICK)
+5.6
TD · Q4 2:38
Tyhier Tyler run for 25 yds for a TD (Cole Talley KICK)
+2.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com